Zebby Matthews, Bubba Chandler Headline 10 Statcast Standouts (Aug. 12th)
Image credit: (Photo by George Kubas/Diamond Images via Getty Images) *** Local Caption *** Bubba Chandler
Every Monday morning we’ll highlight several players who stood out to us based on their underlying Statcast metrics. These are not full scouting reports, but can often serve as good early indicators of prospects who might be ready to break out or are demonstrating MLB-ready skills.
Statcast Standouts returned to its regularly scheduled programming last week, where we discussed why the Diamondbacks would be willing to trade Deyvison De Los Santos, dug into a potential rationale for the Nick Yorke/Quinn Priester swap, and talked about the New Greek God of Walks.
This week, we”ll highlight 10 players, including:
- A Paragon of the House of Radke
- The Fourth Horseman of the Apocalypse
- The best prospect not currently in the major leagues
- The Robin to James Wood’s Batman
- The next Dodgers closer?
- The next Reds closer?
- Another relief ace for the Guardians?
- A data-driven rant about Jordan Walker’s demotion
- An underrated slugging Nationals prospect, by way of New York and Arizona
- An early look at the Brewers’ top pitching prospect
Related prospect rankings
10 Statcast Standouts
Zebby Matthews, RHP, Minnesota Twins
29 years ago, in the days of yore, when scouts had to assess pitchers using just their own two eyes, a pitcher by the name of Brad Radke ascended to the major leagues. While his major league debut wasn’t spectacular, pitching 181 innings with only 75 strikeouts and a 5.32 ERA (about 10% worse than the league average), he would go on to post an ERA that was better than league average in every single full season that he pitched, amassing almost 2,500 quality major league innings.
Radke’s success perhaps prompted the Twins to target another exceptional strike-thrower, one of the most successful Rule 5 draft picks ever: the great Johan Santana. This is what we wrote about Johan 24 years ago:
“Santana’s command of the strike zone and his success in winter ball in Venezuela improve his chances of sticking in Minnesota.”
I watched a LOT of Johan Santana back in the day, and I remember trying to figure out why he would throw his 91-92 mph fastball so much, when his changeup was the best pitch in baseball. PitchFX started in 2007/2008, and his fastball was consistently above average, even at the end of his career. Part of that was the changeup messing with the hitters’ timing, but I think there was more to it than that, with a large component being his elite command of the fastball.
Radke’s true spiritual successor, however, was the aptly-named Kevin Slowey, armed with a slow fastball. It’s been many years since I watched Slowey pitch, but his stuff never looked good, neither the fastball, nor the breaking ball he threw. If you click on his name, you can read a couple of reports on Slowey from 18 years ago. I’ll give you a couple of snippets here:
In 2007: “Slowey resembles Brad Radke for his fastball command, which some scouts rate an 8 on their 2-8 scale. He puts his 88- 92 mph fastball wherever he wants, usually with good life.“
In 2006: “Brad Radke has made a nice career out of locating an average fastball and outsmarting hitters with a devastating changeup. The Twins are hoping Slowey might follow that same path”
Slowey, just like Radke, played his entire career with the Twins, which ended early as he had injury problems. Following Slowey, was Bailey Ober, who I wrote up as a sleeper prospect some 5+ years ago. Ober fits the Radke/Slowey lineage with exceptional walk prevention, and a mediocre fastball as he was coming up through the minors.
Ober represents perhaps an inflection point in the Radke lineage. Ober, you see, has the advantage of siting on the Radke Throne in a time when knowledge of how to improve pitch quality is abundant. Though his release point has risen this year, leading to a drop in fastball quality, Ober made steady gains in fastball stuff quality from his rookie season, which has made him an extremely good pitcher. Which brings us at long last to the latest pitcher from the House of Radke: Zebby Matthews.
Matthews is a paragon of the House of Radke, having walked only 7 batters this entire season. That’s 7 batters walked in 97 IP. It’s a walk rate of 0% in 22 High-A innings, 2.9% in Double-A and 1.2% so far in Triple-A. Let’s take a look at his most recent start, where he (gasp) walked a batter and struck out 5 in 5 innings of work:
We see plenty of 95-97 MPH pitches with above average ride, a marked contrast to his earlier starts in Triple-A. While his velocity has always been consistently above average, if he can maintain this increased ride, he could be a really exciting pitcher, at least with the fastball.
My fastball quality estimates see him as having roughly average ride early on, which has been much improved in his last 2 starts.
The slider grades out well and has generated whiffs on 45% of swings and 22% when including takes. The cutter at 93-94 is a distinct pitch, that teams like the Yankees are using as a “bridge” pitch between the vertical fastball and gyro slider. The theory is that while it may not be a dominant pitch on its own (it grades out about average), it helps the slider and fastball play up. He mixes in a curveball at 80 mph and a decent changeup at 87, giving him a true 5 pitch mix. I’d say that Matthews’ floor will be something that looks a lot like Bailey Ober, and outside of Jackson Jobe, I’d probably have him with the highest probability of being a sustained major league starter. If the fastball ride improves, or he makes small gains in his off-speed pitches, his ceiling can be quite high as well.
Bubba Chandler, RHP, Pirates
The Pirates came into the season with Mitch Keller as their opening day starter. It’s been a long, winding road for Keller, who finally fulfilled his promise, after ranking as the Pirates No. 2 prospect in 2017, and then No. 1 in 2018, 2019 & 2020, his sixth consecutive season as a Pirates top 30 prospect. He peaked as high as No. 12 in our Top 100 back in 2018, and was a top 100 prospect each year between 2017 and 2020. Keller found success in 2022, and has been a very good starter since then.
Keller has now been superseded by Paul Skenes, and perhaps equalled by Jared Jones, giving the Pirates a formidable three-headed monster. Enter Bubba, the potential fourth horseman of the Pirates Apocalypse. Chandler stood out to me visually in the Futures Game, passing the eye test with flying colors.
Let’s take a look at Bubba Chandler’s first Triple-A start:
We see an electric plus to plus-plus fastball, with elite velocity (easy velocity I might add) that averages about 1.5 inches more ride than expected given his height and release point. He gets great extension at 6.8 feet, and averaged 97.2 MPH with the pitch. Chandler’s changeup often gets great depth, and we see the two pitches that got the most depth were the ones that generated whiffs. The pitch grades out very well in public stuff models.
I’m not sure if the slider and gyro curve are distinct pitches, but they do have distinct spin axes and velocity bands, so it’s likely that they are. The gryo curve is more of a “deathball” with -4 inches of IVB and while it hasn’t yet generated any whiffs, I really like the potential for that pitch, though it’s perhaps a little too slow at 80-81 mph. I think this pitch needs to be closer to 85 MPH if possible. The slider is a classic gyro bullet, and generally speaking, bullet sliders with less than three inches of glove side run and negative vert will grade out well from a shape perspective. StuffPro from Baseball Prospectus isn’t buying it (yet), but Stuff+ from FanGraphs is (as per Eno Sarris). I think he can and should throw both the slider and gyro curve harder. If he does, we’re looking at yet another Pirates pitcher spelling doom for opposing hitters.
Junior Caminero, 3B, Rays
I was planning to headline with Caminero this week, but my writing flow led me in a different direction, so we’ll do a shorter review of Caminero’s data, and aim for a deep dive when the Rays eventually call him up.
Caminero appears at first glance to have a hole in his swing when he chases high four-seam fastballs above the zone. He’s extremely aggressive on those pitches above the zone and on the inner third. It’s theoretically a weakness, but for a batter as talented and powerful as Caminero, it might actually be a good thing, as it’s easier to hit high fastballs for home runs. What makes Junior special, is his precocious ability to make contact against breaking balls (sliders, curves and sweepers):
We see he loves swinging at pitches above the zone, but can make a lot of contact against Triple-A breaking balls, pretty much anywhere in the zone and above. Let’s dig a little deeper:
As we saw above, he does chase the high four-seamer, but he doesn’t chase breaking balls, and has an exceptional ability to make contact against them, both in and out of the zone. It’s a rather unique profile in that his swing decisions are really good against breaking balls, and somewhat poor against fastballs, which would suggest to me that he’s waiting on pitches as long as possible, leading to bad takes on in-zone fastballs, but excellent decisions on breaking balls. That’s the kind of approach that only works if you are a freak athlete like James Wood or Junior Caminero. While his launch angles aren’t great, his raw power is borderline elite, with his 90th percentile EV sitting 6 mph above the MLB median. This is a special talent, with elite upside, a rare blend of near-elite raw power, above average contact ability, with a precocious ability to punish breaking balls.
Dylan Crews, CF, Nationals
Crews appears to have the profile of a player who posts multiple 4-5 wins above baseline seasons, without the gaudy top line numbers that some players need to get to that. His chase rates appear to be slightly below average on the surface, but they are above average against breaking balls, and he’s aggressive enough against in-zone fastballs. His power looks to be about a 55 based on his performance at AAA, which will play up because of his ability to make a lot of contact.
Plus contact skills paired with nearly plus power, with the ability to stick in center field, is a very valuable profile. He won’t be a human highlight reel like James Wood, but they should form a dynamic duo in Washington for the foreseeable future.
Edgardo Henriquez, RHP, Dodgers
Read J.J. Cooper’s story on Henriquez’ ascent here.
Let’s take a look a Henriquez’ pitch mix:
Edgardo’s fastball is elite mostly due to his velocity, with about average ride given the arm slot. It’s elite velocity, averaging 99 mph, with multiple pitches topping 100. (It’s worth noting he’s sat 100 and touched 102-103 in previous Double-A outings). It’s not easy to add ride when you’re throwing that hard, but this pitch goes from plus to borderline elite if he can add an inch or two of ride. The gyro cutter/slider should pair very well with the fastball, and grades out extremely well, likely due to the elite velocity of the fastball. When a batter has to gear up for 100, it gives them very little time to react to a 90 mph slider. Writing up Henriquez, makes this a good time to write up an even more exciting arm, with a very similar profile: Zach Maxwell.
Zach Maxwell, RHP, Reds
It appears I write about Zach about once a month. You can read what I had to say on him the last two times here and here.
Above is what Maxwell’s pitch mix has looked like in August. He has the same velocity as Henriquez, averaging a slightly higher 99.3 MPH, with a much higher max at almost 102 mph. The big difference is the ride on the fastball, where Maxwell is getting almost three inches more than the typical pitcher will get with his height and release point. There aren’t very many 80 grade fastballs in baseball, but if any pitch could reach that level, it could be this one. Here’s a picture which shows why I’m so hyped for his fastball:
Most pitchers will struggle to have a fastball that is 0.5 runs better than average overall. Maxwell’s is about 0.7 runs/100 pitch better than average from both a pure velocity standpoint as well as a shape standpoint. On top of that, he maintains both components consistently. The only flaw in his profile is the command, but his raw stuff is bordering on elite, and he’ll be a Pitching Ninja regular when he gets the call.
Andrew Walters, RHP, Guardians
Writing about Maxwell behooves me to write about Walters, another potential top-end closer pitching in AAA right now.
As of right now, I’d say Maxwell’s stuff is a grade above Walters’, though Walters is no slouch. His fastball sits 96, topping out at 99, with 2-3 inches of ride above expected. I think a lot of his sub-par performance at Triple-A can be attributed to him using the fastball too much, throwing it 69% of the time. If he start throwing his gyro/cutter slider more, I think his performance will be closer to what he was doing at the lower levels of the minors. If you’re looking for who might be the next dominant closer, one of these 3 relief pitchers might be the one.
Jordan Walker, OF, Cardinals
Walker has finally found his groove, and is finally hitting bombs again.
Jordan Walker is such a mammoth human that it’s sometimes easy to forget just how young he is. In fact, he’s more than three months younger than Dylan Crews. I want you to put yourself in Jordan Walker’s shoes for a second. You’re a consensus top 5 prospect coming into the 2023 season, and not only do you make the club, but you post a 116 wRC+ in your first season, while learning a new position that you’ve never played before. Then the clock turns to 2024, and you get some bad luck, and boom, you’re now back in Triple-A. I’m speaking for myself here, but if that happened to me, I’d find it very hard to pick myself up and perform at my best.
This is important context when we evaluate Walker’s early season struggles at AAA. We often forget that these are human beings (other than perhaps Corey Kluber), and that being good at baseball is really really hard. Let me show you some pictures.
Jordan Walker in 2023 showed slightly below average launch angles, but excellent power, which gave him above average contact quality. He made about average in-zone contact and traded some in-zone aggression for some out-of-zone chase. This fully supported his quality rookie season, and is quite exceptional for a 21 year old making their MLB debut.
Fast forward to early this season. He chases less. He swings at pitches in the zone more. His average exit velocity is up. His contact is up. His zone contact is improved. His launch angles are improved. Practically everything that matters is better than it was the previous year, exactly what you’d expect from a precocious young talent. But there was one big problem, his slugging on contact was way down, as the gods of baseball did not shine their favour on him in the early going. Inexplicably, the Cardinals sent him down, a decision I couldn’t disagree with more. He got better! If they had just waited a month or two, the top-level results would have been more in line with the underlying metrics.
Walker, despite his struggles after he was demoted, still hits the ball really hard, with plus exit velocities against all pitch types, and still makes a ton of contact. I tried to find some clear data-driven reasons as to why Walker is playing well again, but I couldn’t find anything definitive. I think it’s as simple as this: he finally got over being demoted and has found himself again.
I don’t usually go on rants in this series, but I’ve been thinking about Jordan Walker’s situation a lot. It’s really nice to see Walker getting his groove back in Memphis, and hopefully he’ll be back in the majors soon, this time for good.
Andrés Chaparro, 3B, Nationals
The Nationals have done a great job getting value out of players other teams have passed on, such as Jesse Winker and Juan Yepez. Chaparro might be the next guy to be a valuable contributor to the team.
Chaparro hit 25 home runs last season, and has hit 23 already this season, while also hitting over .300, so let’s look at his underlying data and see where he’s improved year to year.
The biggest change from 2023 is his zone swing%, which has gone up a full 10 points, without any increase in his chase rate. That’s a real, extremely significant improvement. His power metrics are roughly the same, but because he’s swinging at better pitches, he’s doing a lot more damage. More and more, I’m gravitating to batters with the ability to get the ball in the air and make good contact, and Chaparro definitely looks like that type of guy. That he combines it with 55 to 60 grade raw power only makes him more exciting.
Jacob Misiorowski, RHP, Brewers
Misiorowski’s 5.4 foot release height is extremely low given his 6-foot-7 height and long levers. This allows his 14-15 inches of IVB to play up, which combined with his dominant velocity, and elite 7.4 feet of extension, makes the pitch a plus pitch from a stuff perspective. He’s not very consistent with it, sometimes getting into sinker type shapes (the sinkers are all 4-seam fastballs I think).
The curveball had performed well in a really small sample size, and the combination of velocity and vertical movement is a potent one. The gyro cutter sits at 0 HB, which is ideal for a gyro slider, but I think it might be getting too much ride to play properly. He might need a gyro slider version close to 90 mph to get a shape that will dominate hitters. As we accumulate more data, I’ll be looking closely to see what the Brewers do with his gyro pitch shapes.
