Will The Complex League Schedule Changes Impact Draft Debuts?
Image credit: Max Clark (Photo/Tom DiPace)
The Complex League seasons are moving up a month, turning a league once filled with new draftees into one that ends before most draftees ever get into a game.
That led to some fans on social media expressing disappointment that many draftees won’t get into actual games in 2024.
For some, that will be true. But it’s a much smaller number than you may expect. The reorganization of the minor leagues in 2021 and the elimination of short-season and advanced rookie ball leagues had already led to a transformation in how players are assigned.
Less than 35% of college hitters drafted prior to 2021 made it to full-season ball in their draft year. Many of them spent the entire season at a short-season affiliate, then moved up to full-season ball the following year.
Since MLB’s takeover of the minors, more than 70% of college hitters drafted reached full-season ball in their draft year. For high school hitters, the increase in players reaching full-season ball in their debut year is just as notable.
For most of the 21st century, only 5-6% of prep hitters drafted would make it to full-season ball in their draft year. Last year, 25.5% of prep bats made it to full-season ball.
The follow graphics show the spike. We included junior college players to ensure completeness, but their names are much smaller and their data is much noisier. For instance, in 2021, there were 166 college hitters who signed and 52 high school hitters. There were 12 junior college hitters.
Among pitchers, the numbers are dramatically lower, but that’s largely because of the way teams handle young pitches.
The minor increase in percentages of pitchers reaching full-season ball nowadays in their draft year is happening despite a more dramatic drop in the percentage of pitchers who even get on a mound after signing in their draft year.
It used to be that most pitchers would get on the mound after the draft if they signed in time to ramp back up. Because of different signing rules (players were eligible to sign until they stepped foot into a college class for the 2000s and there were draft-and-follows eligible to sign after their junior college seasons), there used to be a reasonably significant number of draftees who signed too late to get into games.
Those rules changed in 2012 with the elimination of the draft-and-follows and an earlier signing date. Beginning in 2012, more than 80% of signees got into at least one pro game in their draft year. That participation rate for hitters has climbed even further in recent years, but the rate of pitchers who get into a game has cratered.
There will be some high school hitters who may have to wait until 2025 to make their official pro debuts because of the changes to the Arizona and Florida Complex League schedules, but for most hitters, it won’t keep them from getting into games. And for the pitchers, many of them were going to be held out whether the complex leagues play in May or August.
