Will Jac Caglianone And Tommy White's NCAA Stardom Translate To Pro Success?

Florida two-way standout Jac Caglianone and LSU third baseman Tommy White are two of the most talented and recognizable players in college baseball.

Each is the face of a Southeastern Conference power and has a track record of high-level performance. And yet neither are typically the first names mentioned as candidates to be drafted No. 1 overall in 2024.

To try to understand the why, let’s first dive into each player.

Caglianone was a premier prospect at Tampa’s Plant High who received plenty of draft interest, but the lefthander/first baseman had Tommy John surgery a week after graduating and honored his Florida commitment.

Caglianone didn’t pitch for the Gators as a freshman in 2022 but did appear in 28 games as DH. The 6-foot-5, 250-pound physical specimen flashed immense power with seven home runs and a .548 slugging percentage.

Those numbers made Caglianone a popular breakout pick for 2023. He exceeded those lofty expectations by becoming the best two-way player in the country. He hit in the top third of Florida’s loaded lineup and earned a spot in its weekend rotation.

Caglianone hit .323/.389/.738 and set a BBCOR record with 33 home runs. On the mound, he went 7-4 with a 4.34 ERA and 87 strikeouts in 74.1 innings. That performance earned him first-team All-America honors and a roster spot on USA Baseball’s Collegiate National Team.

Like Caglianone, White was a well-regarded prospect in high school who made it to campus. A 6-foot, 236-pound third baseman, White showed big power at IMG Academy in Bradenton, Fla., but went undrafted and headed to North Carolina State, where his alter ego emerged.

“Tommy Tanks” lit the college baseball world on fire in 2022 in a Freshman of the Year season. White hit a gaudy .362/.425/.757 with 27 home runs, setting an N.C. State program record and establishing an NCAA freshman record.

White then shocked the college baseball world by entering the transfer portal. He eventually committed to LSU, where he turned in an even stronger sophomore season by hitting .374/.432/.725 with 24 homers and a Division I-leading 105 RBIs.

Through two seasons, White has totaled 51 homers. Another 25 would rank him top 10 in Division I history, which is more impressive than it sounds in light of conditions today, including bat restrictions, shorter schedules and the fact that many in the top 10 were four-year players.

White was a cornerstone of LSU’s national championship lineup and his two biggest swings came on the biggest stage in Omaha. The first was a walk-off two-run homer in the bottom of the 11th inning against Wake Forest to send the Tigers to the College World Series finals.

The second came in Game 1 of the CWS finals against Florida—a game LSU went on to win 4-3 in 11 innings—when White walloped a game-tying home run in the top of the eighth inning. He has proven to be a slow-heartbeat player who shines under the brightest of lights.

So why is neither Caglianone nor White in the discussion for the No. 1 overall pick in this July’s draft?

White’s defense is a question mark. While he played a fine third base last season and figures to do so again in 2024, he seems destined to slide to first base as a professional. For as good as White’s bat is, his profiled is hindered by being viewed as a right-right first baseman.

Additionally, White ran a 40% chase rate last season. He showed the tendency to chase elevated fastballs and down-and-away breaking balls. Part of that can be chalked up to his ultra-aggressive mindset, and his impressive level of production to this point has masked the issue.

For many scouts, White fits best in the pick range of No. 10 to 25 overall.

Because of his upside as a two-way player, Caglianone has a better chance to be drafted first overall. While he is not as accomplished in college as three-time All-American Brendan McKay was at Louisville, Caglianone has separating power on the mound and at the plate, when compared with McKay, not to mention elite athleticism.

John Olerud and Dave Winfield, to name but a pair two-way college superstars of the past, were also more accomplished than Caglianone in NCAA play, but they were never given a chance to play both ways in pro ball.

While the success of Shohei Ohtani has broadened perspectives on what is possible in MLB, his success is unprecedented and unfair to expect from Caglianone. That’s why it’s important to evaluate the Florida junior as a hitter and pitcher individually.

Caglianone has top-of-the-scale bat speed and raw power, but like White he struggles with expanding the strike zone. He chased at a 44% rate last season, with breaking pitches being a particular bugaboo.

On the mound, Caglianone comes with some reliever risk. He lacked pitchability last year and consistently was working behind in counts. He also showed the tendency to fly open and was less connected in his delivery, which inhibited his command.

In an encouraging sign, Caglianone made progress on multiple fronts in fall ball, refining his pitch recognition skills and approach at the plate as well as showing a cleaner, more refined delivery. If his improved command and control are evident this spring, it will make his ultra-rare ability even more enticing.

The fact that Caglianone is not projected to be the first overall pick at this time is as much a testament to the ability of West Virginia’s JJ Wetherholt, Oregon State’s Travis Bazzana and Wake Forest’s Nick Kurtz as it is a knock against Caglianone.

But the draft and pro ball are in the future. For one more season, college fans can live in the moment and enjoy the singular greatness of Caglianone and White.

Scouting Jac Caglianone

The chiseled, 6-foot-5 Caglianone is an imposing presence both in the batter’s box and on the mound.

When batting, he uses a high handset with a fairly open front side. He has a small stride, and his minimal load includes a slight barrel tip. Caglianone has thunderous bat speed and his swing is tailored toward doing impact damage in the air. His 90th percentile exit velocity of 113.6 mph last year ranked third among all college hitters. He has easy double-plus power—arguably the most raw power in the country—and gets to it in games.

He moves well around the first base bag and has a plus arm.

On the mound, Caglianone has an athletic operation that he has gotten better at repeating. He attacks from a three-quarters slot with plus arm speed. Since last year, Caglianone has made his delivery more compact and his arm stroke shorter. Each development should help improve his strike-throwing ability after he walked 16% of batters last season.

The most lethal weapon in Caglianone’s arsenal is his 95-99 mph fastball that has touched 101. It explodes out of his hand and flashes both running and riding life.

Caglianone’s best secondary offering is his mid-80s changeup that complements his fastball in terms of separation and fading, tumbling life to his arm side. His changeup generated an elite 62% miss rate last season, and batters hit just .200 in at-bats ending with the pitch.

Caglianone shows solid feel for a mid-80s slider. Against lefthanded hitters it will take a longer, sweepier look with a bit of depth. Against righthanded hitters it is shorter in shape with more cutting action.

He also mixes in a low-90s cutter. The pitch will sometimes flash tight lateral movement and get in and under the hands of righthanded hitters.

Caglianone’s fastball/changeup combo makes for a lethal one-two punch, and his slider could eventually be a plus third offering.

Scouting Tommy White

White has a stocky, ultra-physical build at 6 feet, 236 pounds. He has serious wrist and forearm strength, and his ability to drive the ball with authority to the opposite field is unlike any hitter in college baseball.

White has a loose operation in the box with extremely quick and whippy hands. With two strikes, he widens his base and completely eliminates his stride, which maximizes his ability to let his hands and natural strength do all of the work.

White has a true hitter’s mindset. He steps in the box ready to hit, is not afraid to jump on the first pitch and shows an outstanding feel for the barrel. White has above-average bat-to-ball skills and last year sported an 87% in-zone contact rate. He has 60-grade power to all fields, as well as a plus hit tool.

White held his own last year at third base and made a handful of quality plays. He flashed an average arm, though his range was limited.