Why Teams Now Gamble On High School Pitchers

Teams now feel more comfortable drafting high school pitchers like Hunter Greene in the first round because they have more information. (Photo by Alyson Boyer Rode)

In the early 2000s, author Bill James groused in “The New Historical Baseball Abstract” that major league teams waste their money by drafting risky high school pitchers in the first round.

“It has been obvious for 20 years that this is a stupid, stupid game,” James wrote, “to use a first-round pick for a high school pitcher—yet every year, four to seven first-round picks are invested in these turkeys.”

While James had plenty of hits in his groundbreaking books, that assessment has not aged well. Due in part to the information revolution in the game that James helped unleash, major league teams have started drafting high school pitchers higher than ever.

The 2014 draft, with lefthander Brady Aiken and righthander Tyler Kolek going off the board as the first two picks, was the first time in 50 years of draft history that prep pitchers led off the draft. That draft hasn’t worked out at all—both pitchers have had Tommy John surgery, and neither has advanced beyond Class A yet.

But here three years later, high school pitchers Hunter Greene and MacKenzie Gore both were in the mix until late to be the No. 1 overall pick. Drafted by the Reds, Greene became the ninth high school righthander drafted No. 2 overall, joining a group that includes J.R. Richard (1969), Josh Beckett (1999) and Jameson Taillon (2010).

Gore, drafted by the Padres, rounded out just the second trio of prep players picked 1-2-3 overall in the last 45 years. It happened previously in 1990, with position players Chipper Jones, Tony Clark and Mike Lieberthal, and again this year with No. 1 pick Royce Lewis, a shortstop, going to the Twins ahead of Greene and Gore.

Fifteen years ago, the Athletics executed the “Moneyball” draft. Oakland viewed college players as undervalued at a time when many teams chased upside with more-volatile high school players in the first round. Teams such as the A’s, Blue Jays and Cardinals—who in 2004 signed no high school players and drafted just four—almost totally ignored the high school class.

Now, at least at the top, the pendulum has swung in the other direction, especially in terms of high school pitchers. While clubs acknowledge the risk inherent in the demographic, they also factor in the reward potential, the chance to find a front-of-the-rotation ace at a much more reasonable price than they can be found in free agency or trades.

“I think you’ve seen a little industry shift in some of that thinking,” Reds scouting director Chris Buckley said. “We have a little more control over the high school kids . . . We get these guys on our pitch limits, on our breaking ball limits.”

Veteran Twins scout Mike Radcliff, now the club’s vice president of player personnel, has helped run drafts for the club for 25 years. With a new front office in place this year, he watched as chief baseball officer Derek Falvey and general manager Thad Levine added layers of data and information on top of the team’s scouting reports to develop its draft list.

“The guys making the ultimate decisions believe there is less risk than (the demographic) used to have,” Radcliff said. “When you go through the process and see a guy with a ceiling as a No. 1 or No. 2 starter, that immediately has huge value . . . It’s not just the present visual observations. There’s way more that goes into the equation.”

That information includes how much money teams spend on finding front-of-the-rotation starters. Acquiring the likes of Jon Lester ($155 million over six years), Cole Hamles ($159 million over seven years) and Zack Greinke ($206.5 million over six years) on the free agent market is incredibly costly and risky, much costlier than the $5-7 million signing bonuses that Greene and Gore will command at the top of the draft.

“It makes a lot more sense,” Radcliff said, “to take your shot at $5-7 million than at $150 million.”

Teams have much more information about high school players than they did, say, in 2006, when Logan White was the Dodgers’ scouting director and drafted Clayton Kershaw with the seventh overall pick. He was the first high school player picked that year and ranked second on the Dodgers’ preference list, behind Evan Longoria.

The Rays took Longoria third overall. That left White, now a senior advisor to Padres GM A.J. Preller, to take Kershaw. He believes the success of prep first-rounders such as Hamels (2002), Jon Lester (2002, second round), Kershaw and Madison Bumgarner (2007) has influenced teams to be bolder at the top of the draft, and they’re armed with more information than they used to have on the top high school arms.

“It’s the combination of showcases, more looks, and more looks when playing against good talent,” White said. “Look at it logically. Would the Giants have won the World Series without Bumgarner? Probably not. Would the Dodgers be a consistent playoff team without Kershaw? What about that Hamels guy? Would the Red Sox have kept winning without Lester? That’s another high school guy.”

White believes the increase in data applies to hitters as well. He doesn’t think he could sneak Matt Kemp down to the sixth round, like the Dodgers did in 2002, with all the data now collected in high school events such as USA Baseball trials and tournaments.

“He’d get a big exit-velocity number and move up several rounds,” White said. “The way the Internet is, some stuff would have crept out.”

In the end, all three veteran evaluators believe information is the separator now. Teams dig deeper than ever on player makeup, incorporate media reports on players and add in spin rates and more granular pitching data, and not just for prospects with Greene’s long career in the Southern California spotlight but also those from rural North Carolina, such as Gore.

“You have to be comfortable and willing to accept the risk of injury,” White said. “If you’re going to try to get an ace, you have to be willing to draft pitching and accept the risk.

“But if you look around the big leagues at the aces, almost all of them are first-round picks, and often pretty high picks.”

Greene and Gore have very different bodies, different strengths and profiles. Greene throws 100 mph and has the polished media presence to be the face of a franchise. Gore has premium athleticism, an ideal pitcher’s body and four pitches that could be plus when he fills out physically.

They may get there different ways. But the Reds and Padres hope both develop into that rarest of birds, the front-of-the-rotation starter.