Why Is Hitting So Hard In MLB Nowadays?
Image credit: Aaron Judge (Photo by Ron Jenkins/Getty Images)
There will always be a group of baseball fans who believe that the game has lost its way, and that the current crop of baseball players can’t come close to measuring up to the greats of the past.
It’s true in 2024, but it was just as true in 1916.
Now, there are probably fewer postgame sing-alongs and hopefully less “murder in their hearts” in 2024 than was true in the 1890s. But the same “back in my day” mentality that was true in 1916 is a tempting siren’s song in 2024, as well.
If you’re not playing Major League Baseball in 2024, it’s understandably difficult to fathom just how hard the game is for hitters these days. Current players and coaches are happy to discuss this if you ask them. Pitchers are nastier. Weaknesses are exposed more quickly. And just when you think you have a pitcher figured out, the next time you step to the plate, he’s been replaced by a reliever who throws 98 mph.
Here’s a simple example we can show from relatively recent history that illustrates just how tough it has become using two of the best hitters the game has ever seen.
From 2009-2012, Miguel Cabrera was arguably the best hitter in baseball. He hit .332/.414/.590 over those four seasons and won two batting titles. Cabrera averaged 36 home runs a year, won an MVP award and never finished worse than fifth in an MVP race over those four years.
In 2021-2024, Aaron Judge has arguably been the best hitter in baseball. He’s hitting .301/.417/.641 over this current four-year stretch. Judge has averaged 46 home runs a season during that time. He’s won an MVP award and may win a second this year.
Judge is a more of a slugger, while Cabrera was a bit more of a pure hitter. There’s never a perfect apples-to-apples comparison, but it’s fair to say that 2009-2012 Cabera and 2021-2024 Judge rank among the best and most feared hitters of their eras. Considering they put up similar offensive production over these four-year stretches, you could say these are two Hall of Famers being studied in the middle of the peaks of their careers.
Using Statcast data from the wonderful Baseball Savant Website, we can comfortably show just how much tougher Judge’s job has been over the past four years than Cabrera’s was just a generation before.
Let’s start with a very simple comparison: Both Cabrera and Judge hitters who destroy fastballs. Aaron Judge is hitting .347/.444/.759 against four-seam fastballs over his four-year stretch, while Cabrera hit .333/.419/.593 against four-seamers during his four years being studied.
But when it comes to fastball velocity, Judge has faced a significantly tougher test.
Almost 29% of the four-seam fastballs Cabrera saw from 2009-2012 were 90 mph or less. Only 6% of the four-seamers Judge has seen have been 90 mph or less.
On the other end of the spectrum, roughly 8% of the four-seamers Cabrera saw were 97+ mph. For Judge, it’s more than 20% of the four-seamers he’s seeing.
So, Judge has faced significantly higher velocity fastballs than Cabrera did. This is all on the exact same scale, so there are no discrepancies in radar gun measurements to explain the difference. Pitchers just throw a lot harder in 2021-2024 than they did in 2009-2012.
Cabrera hit .414/.480/.640 when he saw a 90 mph or softer fastball. Judge wasn’t as good (.286/.444/.571) against those soft heaters, but he also only saw 91 pitches that fit that category. Cabrera saw 553.
How Cabrera And Judge Fare Versus Different Fastball Velocities
| Cabrera | ||||||||||||||
| Velo. | Pitches | H | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | PA | AB | AVG | OBP | SLG | Whiff % |
| 90 or less | 553 | 46 | 31 | 10 | 0 | 5 | 12 | 14 | 125 | 111 | .414 | .480 | .640 | 28.77% |
| 91-92 | 441 | 31 | 15 | 10 | 0 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 112 | 99 | .313 | .384 | .596 | 22.94% |
| 93-94 | 477 | 26 | 11 | 6 | 0 | 9 | 19 | 22 | 109 | 84 | .310 | .450 | .702 | 24.82% |
| 95-96 | 294 | 20 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 10 | 72 | 61 | .328 | .417 | .557 | 15.30% |
| 97-98 | 133 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 27 | 26 | .269 | .296 | .269 | 6.92% |
| 99-100 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | .000 | .500 | .000 | 0.88% |
| 101-105 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0.36% |
| Judge | ||||||||||||||
| Velo. | Pitches | H | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | PA | AB | AVG | OBP | SLG | Whiff % |
| 90 or less | 91 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 18 | 14 | .286 | .444 | .571 | 6.17% |
| 91-92 | 208 | 14 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 49 | 39 | .359 | .417 | .846 | 14.10% |
| 93-94 | 454 | 29 | 12 | 5 | 0 | 12 | 31 | 22 | 115 | 91 | .319 | .461 | .769 | 30.78% |
| 95-96 | 419 | 27 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 26 | 14 | 108 | 91 | .297 | .407 | .747 | 28.41% |
| 97-98 | 254 | 17 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 23 | 12 | 68 | 56 | .304 | .426 | .554 | 17.22% |
| 99-100 | 41 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 9 | .333 | .400 | .444 | 2.78% |
| 101-105 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0.54% |
Adding to Judge’s degree of difficult is how many fewer fastballs he sees. Both of these hitters are ones that pitchers would have every incentive to avoid or “ramp up” to give them their best stuff. But because of how teams approach pitching differently in 2024, Judge sees fastballs only 43% of the time (combining four-seamers and sinkers). Cabrera saw fastballs 56% of the time. Judge sees cutters, sliders or sweepers 33% of the time. Cabrera saw them 22% of the time.
This is a key point that may get overlooked. Aaron Judge looks at four-seam fastballs like many of us look at Double Stuff Oreos. His eyes get big and he gets ready to feast. Over the past four seasons, Judge hits a home run once every 39 pitches when he sees four-seam fastballs.
That’s not a typo. That’s not plate appearances or at-bats, it’s once every 39 four-seam fastballs he sees, he jogs around the bases. With sinkers, Judge homers once every 47 pitches.
But in the 2020s, pitchers and opposing teams are well aware of this fact, so Judge doesn’t get all that many fastballs to crush.
In 2009-2012, teams threw four-seam fastballs 33.7% of the time, and sinkers another 23.7% of the time. In 2021-2024 the overall four-seam rate is 33.2% and the sinker rate is 15.4%. Even as one of the best hitters in baseball at the time, Cabrera’s fastball rates were right in line with the averages: 32% four-seam fastballs and 24.2% sinkers.
Judge’s numbers aren’t close to that. He’s seen a 27.1% four-seam rate and a 16% sinker rate. Even if he still faced today’s velocity, if you project Judge to get Cabrera’s higher fastball rates (and lower slider rates), he’d project to have another 11 home runs from 2021-2024 (so far). Judge would project to hit another 12 home runs against four-seamers and another 16 against sinkers, but he would also never see sweepers, which he’d destroyed to the tune of one home run every 46 pitches.
This makes hitter tougher for most hitters. Hitters are trying to get fastballs in fastball counts. Nowadays, pitchers are much less likely to oblige. This isn’t an Aaron Judge-specific change. Judge’s 43% fastball rate (sinkers and four-seamers) is less than any hitter from the 2009-2012 timeframe. From 2009-2012, Ryan Howard’s 45.3% fastball rate was the lowest fastball rate in baseball. Only nine MLB hitters with 2,000 or more pitches seen saw fewer than 50% fastballs (sinkers and four-seamers).
Judge’s 43% fastball rate now ranks 35th fewest in the majors (2021-2024). Oneil Cruz sees fastballs only 38.6% of the time. There have been 306 hitters (with 2,000 or more pitches seen) who are seeing fastballs less than 50% of the time in 2021-2024.
Here’s a look at how each of these hitters fared versus the different pitches they saw. Judge doesn’t get the intentional ball category because nowadays that’s been replaced by pointing to first base.
Miguel Cabrera’s Pitches Faced (2009-2012)
| Pitch | Avg. Velo | Pitch% | BA | OBP | SLG |
| 4-Seam Fastball | 92.7 | 32 | .333 | .419 | .593 |
| Sinker | 92 | 24.2 | .369 | .433 | .615 |
| Slider | 84.4 | 15.9 | .303 | .350 | .550 |
| Changeup | 83.1 | 9.6 | .351 | .401 | .660 |
| Curveball | 77.5 | 6.9 | .262 | .293 | .470 |
| Cutter | 88.7 | 5.5 | .333 | .399 | .593 |
| Intentional Ball | 69.7 | 3.1 | — | 1.000 | — |
| Split-Finger | 84.5 | 1.4 | .279 | .295 | .767 |
| Knuckle Curve | 79.4 | 0.8 | .474 | .500 | .895 |
| Knuckleball | 73.7 | 0.4 | .333 | .455 | .333 |
| Forkball | 86.8 | 0.1 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Sweeper | 83.8 | 0.1 | .250 | .400 | .500 |
| Eephus | 65.2 | 0.1 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Other | 92.9 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Pitch Out | 85.8 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Screwball | 74.5 | 0 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 |
Aaron Judge’s Pitches Faced (2021-2024)
| Pitch | Avg. Velo | Pitch% | BA | OBP | SLG |
| 4-Seam Fastball | 94.5 | 27.1 | .347 | .444 | .759 |
| Slider | 85.6 | 20.4 | .245 | .371 | .496 |
| Sinker | 93.9 | 16 | .380 | .471 | .750 |
| Changeup | 85.4 | 12.5 | .188 | .313 | .449 |
| Cutter | 88.7 | 7.7 | .296 | .390 | .579 |
| Curveball | 79.4 | 5.8 | .270 | .326 | .623 |
| Sweeper | 82.1 | 5.7 | .340 | .449 | .794 |
| Split-Finger | 87.1 | 2.7 | .255 | .356 | .529 |
| Knuckle Curve | 81.5 | 1.5 | .227 | .414 | .545 |
| Slurve | 83.5 | 0.5 | .125 | .125 | .125 |
| Other | 84.1 | 0.1 | — | 1.000 | — |
| Eephus | 51.6 | 0 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| Slow Curve | 75 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
There are other differences, as well.
In the late 2000s/early 2010s, managers were more likely to let a starting pitcher face a batter a third or fourth time. Nowadays, teams are well aware that every time a batter faces a pitcher again in the same game, the advantage steadily shifts to the batter. The third and fourth time through the order penalty is something that has led teams to emphasize reliever usage.
Baseball Reference’s Splits data shows that for Cabrera, 22.4% of his plate appearances came against a pitcher seeing him for a third or fourth time in a game. He punished teams foolish enough to do that, as he hit .359/.437/.670 in those situations. Of the 146 home runs he hit in that four-year span, 36 (24.6%) came when pitchers were facing him a third or fourth time in a game. Cabrera had 64 plate appearances where he faced a pitcher a fourth time in a game. He hit .404/.500/.577 in those situations.
Nowadays, the sight of Judge in the on-deck circle is often enough of an incentive to send a manager scurrying to the mound to bring in a reliever. Judge has only had 16.6% of his plate appearances come when seeing a pitcher for a third or fourth time. He’s hit 23 of his 184 home runs (12.5%) in those situations. He’s hitting .274/.414/.564 when facing a pitcher a third or fourth time. Judge had only had seven plate appearances in the past four years where he saw a pitcher a fourth time in a game. It has yet to happen in 2024.
As you would expect, that also means that Judge has faced a greater number of pitchers. Cabrera faced 468 different pitchers between 2009-2012. Judge has so far faced 609 different pitchers.
There’s one other area to examine. Were pitchers in 2009-2012 better with their command and control, able to paint the corners better than they do against Judge? The data says the pitches they have seen are rather similar.
Judge and Cabrera are both hitters who destroyed pitchers who caught too much of the plate. Cabrera hit .432/.421/.817 on pitches over the “heart of the zone” as measured by the Statcast pitch zones. Judge is hitting .410/.409/.967 on pitches in the heart of the zone. Statcast measures pitches as in the heart of the zone, on the shadow of the zone (which is the very edges of the strike zone), the chase zone (which is just off the strike zone) or the waste zone (which is so far out of the zone that hitters rarely swing).
If you remove intentional walk pitches (since Cabrera saw 306 intentional walk pitches and Judge has seen zero), Cabrera’s heart of the zone rate is 22.9% while Judge’s is 24.0%. So Cabrera did see fewer pitches in the hitters’ best zones. But Judge also saw slightly more pitches on the very edge of the strike zone. Cabrera’s shadow area rate is 41.3% while Judge’s is 41.8%. Both saw an identical rate of pitches in the chase zone (24.2%). Cabrera’s waste rate is 10.8% while Judge’s is 9.7%. Cabrera saw fewer pitches over the heart of the plate, but he also saw more pitches that were clearly balls out of the hand, while Judge saw more pitches on the edge of the strike zone. All in all, it seems to be very similar pitch location rates for both batters.
None of this is meant to denigrate what Cabrera did in 2009-2012. During that stretch, he was one of the best hitters the game has seen in the 21st century. But whether you’re looking at pitch velocity, pitch selection or the third time through the order penalty, when you consider how the game keeps getting tougher for hitters, what Aaron Judge is doing is remarkable.
