Who Has The Best Pitches Among 2024 Top 100 MLB Prospects?
Image credit: Jackson Jobe (Photo by Norm Hall/MLB Photos via Getty Images)
For each of the last three years, I’ve run to my spreadsheets in the aftermath of the release of the Top 100 with the goal of providing insight into the pitches thrown by Top 100 pitchers. What started as a fun exercise my first season at Baseball America has grown into my favorite article I write each season.
Over the last three years I’ve tried different versions of this post, including breaking out each pitch type into its own post last season. This year we return to our roots combining the pitches into a single article.
2024 Top 100 Prospects
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Below you’ll see pitches grouped into fastballs, breaking balls and changeups. With the advancement in pitch development and with a greater understanding of what works, certain pitch types (primarily the curveball) have been pushed aside in favor of a variety of different slider and cutter shapes. Due to this, I combined all breaking balls into a single category where sliders reign supreme.
The lists contained within this article are not a hard ordinal ranking. It’s more a view at some special pitches thrown by pitchers inside the Top 100 that performed well due to their outlier traits. Let’s dive into it.
FASTBALLS
| Player | Org | Pitch Type | Vel | Max | IVB | HB | Spin | VAA | Strike% | IZWhiff% | CSW |
| Mason Miller | OAK | Four-Seam | 98.9 | 100.9 | 16.6 | 7.5 | 2475 | -4.78 | 62.70% | 46.20% | 36.30% |
| Kyle Harrison | SF | Four-Seam | 94.1 | 95.5 | 13.1 | -14.3 | 2259 | -4.08 | 61.70% | 36.50% | 36.50% |
| Jacob Misiorowski | MIL | Four-Seam | 97.1 | 99.3 | 13.8 | 12.3 | 2586 | -4.02 | 58.90% | 32.00% | 31.40% |
| Ricky Tiedemann | TOR | Four-Seam | 96.2 | 97.6 | 12.1 | -16.5 | 2469 | -4.55 | 68.30% | 31.10% | 33.70% |
| Chase Hampton | NYY | Four-Seam | 93.3 | 95.2 | 18.9 | 6.7 | 2553 | -4.4 | 65.20% | 29.40% | 34.00% |
This year is a great example of how the idea of a truly great fastball is evolving. While induced vertical break has become en vogue as a catch all, understanding how velocity and release traits play together to make a great fastball is evident here, as only Mason Miller lacks truly outlier release traits. It certainly helps that Mason Miller sits near 99 mph on his four-seam.
Because it’s so difficult to parse through shape and performance, these pitches were grouped and then ranked based on in-zone whiff rate. Miller’s sample is smaller than others on the list but his 46.7% in-zone whiff rate is truly absurd. Power in the strike zone plays, simple and plain.
There’s a two-man battle between Giants lefty Kyle Harrison and Brewers righthander Jacob Misiorowski for most interesting fastball traits. While Harrison lacks Misiorowski’s power, they share a common trait of outlier vertical approach angle. For the uninitiated, vertical approach angle is the degree at which the ball travels out of the hand and to the plate. This is what we mean when a pitcher has outlier fastball plane. Even more so than IVB, vertical approach angle gives us insight into how hard it is for a hitter to match the pitch plane with his bat path. Harrison and Misiorowski create this phenomenon as well as anyone on the list.
Ricky Tiedemann’s fastball showcases his unique combination of power and deceptive release traits. A low-slot lefthander, Tiedemann creates more running movement on his fastball than most four-seamers. This plays due to the velocity and his low release despite a lack of traditional four-seam ride or hop.
Chase Hampton has the fastball shape most associated with a good fastball. He generates above-average induced vertical break with moderate cut. He gets a high rate of spin efficiency on his fastball, meaning his spin directly contributes to the movement of the pitch. Hampton saw his fastball velocity drop over the course of the season as he pushed well past his previous innings high. It’s reasonable to expect Hampton better sustains his velocity in 2024 after building innings in 2023.
BREAKING BALLS
| Player | ORG | Pitch Type | Vel | Max | IVB | HB | Spin | Strike% | IZWhiff% | CSW |
| Cade Horton | CHC | Slider | 84.2 | 86.1 | -0.5 | -10.6 | 2601 | 65.90% | 27.80% | 39.10% |
| Ricky Tiedemann | TOR | Slider | 82.6 | 84.8 | 4.1 | 8.5 | 2631 | 72.50% | 39.10% | 49.00% |
| Jacob Misiorowski | MIL | Slider | 88.4 | 90.7 | 1.2 | -5.8 | 2485 | 61.00% | 35.10% | 36.30% |
| Noah Schultz | CWS | Slider | 80.5 | 82.1 | 1.4 | 16.2 | 2924 | 60.20% | 46.20% | 39.80% |
| Jackson Jobe | DET | Slider | 85.4 | 87.3 | 0.9 | -13.1 | 3050 | 68.10% | 29.70% | 40.70% |
Sorry curveball truthers, sliders are now king of the breaking ball world. Despite the catch-all term of slider, many of these pitches don’t necessarily share common movement traits. There’s a significant difference in the look and shape of a sweeper, a gyro slider or the recently en vogue slider/cutter hybrid type pitches. Misiorowski’s slider is a good example of this.
Despite having the lowest in-zone whiff rate of the sliders listed, I moved Cade Horton’s slider to the top of the chart. Horton accumulated the most run value on his slider of any pitcher in the Top 100, while also having the highest individual per pitch run value of any breaking ball. This is a product of Horton’s outlier power and sweep. He sits 84.1 mph on average with over 10.5 inches of sweep on average. Not only does Horton show outlier pitch traits, he commands the pitch well and can generate whiffs as well as steal looking strikes.
Noah Schultz has the most traditional sweeper on the list, sitting low 80s with over 16 inches of sweep on average. Schultz’s slider overwhelmed Low-A competition in 2023 generating the highest in-zone whiff rate of the sliders listed. He might have earned the moniker of the best breaking ball on the list had he thrown more innings.
From a purely pitch metrics standpoint, Jackson Jobe’s slider earns the “how the heck does that pitch exist” award. Jobe is throwing a mid-80s sweeper with 3,000 rpm spin rates and a ludicrous 68% strike rate. It’s often a concern that sweepers with this much movement are difficult to command. Jobe is challenging that perception with each strong performance.
Tiedemann’s slider is a personal favorite. I’ve seen first hand his ability to wear out the armside part of the plate with the pitch using his outlier horizontal approach angle to generate more sweep visually than the pitch actually generates. He refined the pitch in the last year, changing the shape of the more traditional slider he threw in 2022. Tiedemann now generates both ride and sweep from a low arm slot and he commands it as well as any pitcher on the list does their fastball. His 49% called + swinging strike rate in the pitch is alien.
CHANGEUPS
| Player | ORG | Pitch Type | Vel | Max | IVB | HB | Spin | Strike% | IZWhiff% | CSW |
| Gavin Stone | LAD | Changeups | 85.5 | 87.2 | 5.6 | 12.6 | 1512 | 64.30% | 39.20% | 35.20% |
| Drew Thorpe | SDP | Changeups | 82.5 | 83.9 | 16.5 | 13 | 2149 | 60.70% | 58.30% | 41.90% |
| Jackson Jobe | DET | Changeups | 85.3 | 87 | 6.1 | 14 | 1774 | 73.00% | 41.50% | 40.50% |
| Nick Frasso | LAD | Changeups | 84.1 | 86 | 6.5 | 18.3 | 2544 | 64.80% | 32.90% | 31.60% |
| DL Hall | BAL | Changeups | 84.2 | 86 | 9.3 | -15.5 | 2122 | 54.00% | 36.50% | 33.60% |
Changeups are the pitch where actual movement metrics tell us very little about how well the pitch will play. Changeups play off fastballs and there’s elements like arm speed and deception that cannot be picked up by movement alone. (Though comparing VAA between fastballs and changeups has proven to be an excellent measuring stick.)
Gavin Stone returns to the list for a second year due to the quality of his changeup. Of all pitches thrown by a Top 100 pitcher, Stone’s changeup had the highest cumulative run value of the entire group. Stone does a tremendous job of killing lift on his changeup and selling it off of his somewhat pedestrian fastball.
The most unique changeup in the list belongs to Dodgers flame throwing righthander Nick Frasso. Frasso’s changeup is similar in shape and style to the Brewers’ Devin Williams, as it’s more of a screwball than a classic changeup. Both Williams and Frasso generate high spin rates on their changeups, nearly 700-1,000 more rpm than is typical. Each also generates between 18-19 inches of armside run on the pitch.
Drew Thorpe throws the most prototypical Bugs Bunny changeup I’ve seen. What do I mean by that? His changeup models the movement of a typical fastball with more IVB than armside run and an average four-seam spin rate for a pronator’s four-seam fastball. Thorpe’s ability to consistently sell the pitch drove much of his success in 2023.
Clearly everything Jobe throws is filthy, but the performance of his changeup has me excited to see what the righthander can do over a full healthy season. Not only is Jobe one of the hardest throwers in the Top 100, he also has one of the best sliders and one of the best changeups. I wonder if Tigers fans still regret that pick?
DL Hall makes the best pitches in the Top 100 for the third consecutive season. Here’s to Hall graduating in 2024 and leaving the 2025 Best Pitches in the Top 100 story in his wake. The only lefty changeup on the list, Hall generates whiffs at a high rate. But the question with Hall will always be whether he can command it enough for the pitch to reach its true plus potential in the major leagues.
