Which Young Power Prospects Have The Highest 90th Percentile Exit Velocity?
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Image credit: Jac Caglianone (Photo by Bill Mitchell)
It’s almost cliche to say that hitting the ball harder leads to better outcomes for batters. Despite the tired refrain, it’s still a concept many dismiss when it comes to predicting future production at the major league level. There’s certainly other important elements to hitting, but big, raw power leaves room for error, and that room for error translates to production on mishits.
Today, we’ll dive into a group of standout power hitters age 21 or younger presently in the minor leagues.
We’ll use percentile rankings amongst the players 21 or younger prior to July 15th. This will help us further contextualize where their metrics rank among age based peers. The 15 hitters discussed within this article all rate within the top 2% of 90th percentile exit velocity among players 21 or younger.
Tony Blanco Jr., OF, Pirates
90th Percentile Exit Velocity: 112.3 mph (100th Percentile)
Blanco’s name is likely to be met with a steady dose of “Who?” But there’s no one 21 or under in the minor leagues who hits the ball as hard as Blanco. The son of former MLB player and four-time Nippon Professional Baseball all-star Tony Blanco, Jr. hit .305/.385/.505 in his stateside debut in the Florida Complex League in 2024. Raw power is Blanco’s calling card, as he reached a max exit velocity of 117.5 mph this season. The downside is Blanco’s contact rates sit in the bottom 15 percentile to go with just average swing decisions. With plus power, bat speed and ball flight, any improvements to Blanco’s contact could yield serious results.
Benny Montgomery, OF, Rockies
90th Percentile Exit Velocity: 110.4 mph (100th Percentile)
It’s been a rough entry into pro ball for Montgomery, who has struggled to find consistency and health over the last three seasons. Earlier this year Montgomery, looked like he might be hitting his stride until suffering a left shoulder injury that required surgery. While Montgomery’s plate skills are still poor—he ranks in the bottom 10% in both miss and chase rates—his exit velocity data is outstanding. We’re playing with very small samples sizes here, as Montgomery only played in 11 games this season. That said, few players in the game are as tooled up and athletic as Montgomery. When your athletic testing and raw power metrics break the scale, it gets easier to dismiss really concerning bat-to-ball and swing decisions. Montgomery possesses a big power and speed upside, but his plate skills and injury history leave many weary.
Jac Caglianone, 1B, Royals
90th Percentile Exit Velocity: 110.3 mph (100th Percentile)
This should come as no surprise to anyone who follows college baseball or the draft, as Caglianone’s power exploits at Florida were well documented. While Jac’s bottom 10th percentile swing decisions still plague him, his early returns in pro ball show his power isn’t slowing down with the switch to a wood bat. In just 13 games as a professional, Caglianone has already hit a ball 114 mph while displaying 75th percentile zone contact rates. His angles have been less outstanding, as his line drive+flyball rate is in the bottom 15% of players 21 or younger. This offseason, Caglianone must focus on improving his swing decisions and optimizing his batted ball angles on hard contact. Lord knows he makes plenty of it.
Robert Calaz, OF, Rockies
90th Percentile Exit Velocity: 109.5 mph (100th Percentile)
The Rockies have scouted the international market as well as anyone in recent years, and Calaz is their most recent IFA product. The slugger made his stateside debut in the Arizona Complex League this season hitting .349/.462/.651 with 10 home runs. Calaz led the ACL in home runs, batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. Despite contact and chase rates that rank in the bottom 30th percentile, Calaz was productive due to outstanding power and the ability to elevate on his best struck drives. Calaz’s .415 xwOBAcon ranks in the 97th percentile, pointing to his elite power and angles on contact. If Calaz can improve his bat-to-ball skills and swing decisions, it’s not hyperbole to state there is 40 home run power lurking.
Nick Kurtz, 1B, Athletics
90th Percentile Exit Velocity: 109.4 mph (100th Percentile)
Our second 2024 draftee featured in this article after Caglianone, Kurtz has had arguably the best debut in pro ball of any 2024 first rounder. Kurtz went 10-for-25 over seven games with Low-A Stockton before earning promotion to Double-A Midland where’s he reached base four times over his first two games with the RockHounds. Kurtz has one of the better combination of advanced plate skills and power in minor leagues and could move to the major leagues quickly. His contact rates are in the top 80% while his chase rate isn’t far off, either, ranking in the top 76th percentile. Kurtz, however, isn’t here due to his plate skills—it’s his outstanding power. In a small professional sample, Kurtz’s xwOBAcon, 90th percentile exit velocity, max EV and hard-hit rate all rank on the top five percent of hitters. In a season where excitement is in short supply in Oakland, Kurtz brings hope.
Emmanuel Rodriguez, OF, Twins
90th Percentile Exit Velocity: 109.3 mph (100th Percentile)
Unfortunately, injuries robbed us of another full season of Rodriguez, as he’s been limited to just 39 games. He remains on the injured list due to a right thumb strain, but when Rodrigues in the lineup it’s hard to argue with the production, as he hit .298/.479/.621 over 37 games with Double-A Wichita. He’s one of the most well rounded prospects in the game, making an impact on both sides of the ball. While you could argue Rodriguez elite on-base ability is his most outstanding tool, his power metrics rate just as highly. Rodriguez’s 90th percentile exit velocity, max EV, xwOBAcon and hard-hit rate all rank in the 98th percentile or higher. With great power, plate discipline and batted ball angles, Rodriguez is a picture-perfect modern archetype hitter.
Elijah Green, OF, Nationals
90th Percentile Exit Velocity: 109 mph (100th Percentile)
Let’s just get this out of the way: The bat-to-ball ability is bad. Green has run a 40%+ strikeout rate over his first two full seasons of full season play, and his contact rates are in the bottom five percent despite fringe-average swing decisions. This is a limiting factor for Green’s power, which on its face is elite. Green’s max EV of 116 mph and 45.8% hard-hit rate rank among the top five percent, but it’s a real question if he gets to it consistently due to his penchant for whiffs.
Deyvison De Los Santos, 3B, Marlins
90th Percentile Exit Velocity: 108.9 mph (99th Percentile)
The least shocking name as far as inclusion on this list has to be De Los Santos, who’s currently leading all of MiLB in home runs with 35. Acquired by the Marlins at the deadline from the Diamondbacks, De Los Santos also spent some time this spring with the Guardians organization after being selected in the 2023 Rule 5 draft. Now settled with the Marlins, De Los Santos is one of the best young power hitters in the minors. Despite a bottom 2% chase rate and contact that rates in the bottom third of the minors, De Los Santos has only struck out at a rate of 23.8% in 2024 across all levels. His power metrics are outstanding, as De Los Santos ranks in the top 1% in 90th percentile exit velocity, max EV and xwOBAcon. Plate skills questions will likely make for a rough entry into the major leagues, but incremental improvements in that area could lead to loud results one day.
Christian Moore, SS, Angels
90th Percentile Exit Velocity: 108.5 mph (99th Percentile)
Duking it out with Nick Kurtz for the best professional debut among first rounders, Moore is off to an early lead. The Angels’ first rounder has hit .357/.410/.661 with five home runs over his first 14 Double-A games. While there’s been some concerning swing-and-miss early, Moore has shown a knack for finding the barrel and doing damage, as his xwOBAcon, 90th percentile exit velocity and hard hit rate all rank in the top 1%. His ability to find the barrel puts him in elite company for barrel rate, and it has led to elite production early. Moore’s power is major league-ready, but his swing-and-miss at Double-A, particularly in-zone, will perhaps delay his ETA.
Roman Anthony, OF, Red Sox
90th Percentile Exit Velocity: 108.5 mph (99th percentile)
Recently promoted to Triple-A Worcester, Anthony is the best power prospect among the Red Sox’s top four position prospects, as his raw power output exceeds anything Marcelo Mayer, Kyle Teel or Kristian Campbell can rival. Anthony is the most well-rounded hitter on this list, too, as his contact and chase numbers all rate in the top 60th percentile or better. Still, Anthony’s power is his calling card, with his 90th percentile exit velocity, max EV, hard hit rate and bat speed all ranking within the top 1%. The biggest limiting factor to Anthony developing into a plus power hitting corner outfielder is fringe-average ball flight metrics. Small tweaks to his swing path could unlock even more power from Anthony.
Zyhir Hope, OF, Dodgers
90th Percentile Exit Velocity: 108.5 mph (99th Percentile)
Acquired by the Dodgers this past offseason in the trade that sent Michael Busch to the Cubs, Hope is one of the highest-upside power bats in the minor leagues. He got off to a hot start to begin the season before missing time with a shoulder injury. Since returning to the Rancho Cucamonga lineup on July 27th, Hope has hit .276/.415/.461 with six extra base hits. While Hope’s numbers are strong for a 19-year-old at a full-season level, his power numbers are outstanding. Hope’s xwOBAcon, 90th percentile exit velocity, max EV, hard-hit rate and xwOBA all rate within the top 10% among hitters 21 years of age or younger. When you factor in Hope’s 88th percentile chase rate and 79th percentile zone contact, you have a really exciting young player. The shoulder injury likely depressed some of Hope’s helium, but he’s an exciting player to dream on in the coming years.
Thayron Liranzo, C, Tigers
90th Percentile Exit Velocity: 108.2 mph (99th percentile)
A switch-hitting catcher with elite power is like a unicorn, but the Tigers may have acquired just that in Liranzo at this year’s trade deadline. While Liranzo failed to meet expectations early this season with High-A Great Lakes, the move across the Midwest League to West Michigan has seen him flourish, hitting .396/.547/.771 with four home runs over his first 15 games post-trade. Liranzo has excellent swing decisions. He ranks in the top 20% in chase rate and fringe-average contact, and it’s enough to get to his easy plus raw power. Liranzo rates within the the top 10th percentile in xwOBAcon, 90th percentile exit velocity, max EV, hard-hit rate and barrel rate for players 21 or younger. Some present swing-and=miss is a concern, and the track record of switch-hitters taking longer to develop may worry some, but it’s tough to find another young switch-hitter with this type of power.
Xavier Isaac, 1B, Rays
90th Percentile Exit Velocity: 108.1 mph (99th Percentile)
Like many on this list, Issac is a contact quality standout with production to match. He has hit .272/.372/.510 with 17 home runs across High-A and Double-A in 2024 as a 20-year-old. Though Isaac has shown bottom 10th percentile contact this season, his swing decisions grade as average and have allowed him to consistently attack the right pitches to do damage. His 90th percentile exit velocity, max exit velocity, xwOBAcon, line drive+flyball rate, hard-hit rate and barrel rate all rank within the top five percent of players 21 years of age or younger. The hulking Isaac’s ability to consistently get to his raw power in games makes him a potential 40-home run threat in the future.
George Wolkow, OF, White Sox
90th Percentile Exit Velocity: 108.1 mph (99th Percentile)
The gargantuan Wolkow stands 6-foot-7, 239 pound and is one of the more fascinating prospects in the lower minors at present. Despite substantial swing-and-miss issues—Wolkow ranks in the bottom five percent in miss and zone-miss—the outfielder has managed to stay productive. Across two levels, Wolkow has slashed .265/.370/.480 with 29 extra base hits despite a 40.7% strikeout rate. The reason Wolkow has managed to stay productive despite bottom of the barrel contact is his power. Wolkow’s 90th percentile and maximum exit velocity both rank in the top three percent, while his xwOBAcon, hard-hit rate and barrel rate all rank within the top 10%. Whether or not Wolkow can ultimately make enough contact at the higher levels will determine his ultimate role.
Samuel Basallo, C, Orioles
90th Percentile Exit Velocity: 106.7 mph (98th Percentile)
There were about a dozen hitters I skipped over in 90th percentile exit velocity rankings to discuss Basallo, but for good reason: None of the players between Wolkow and Basallo have the same kind of outstanding production as a professional that Basallo does. After dealing with injuries throughout the season, Basallo has still managed to hit .283/.348/.452 with 15 home runs this season. Despite being only 19 years olf for a majority of the season, Basallo has been 26% better than the average Eastern League hitter, and his power metrics rank even higher. Basallo rates within the 98th percentile for 90% and max exit velocity, hard-hit rate and bat speed, while his xwOBAcon and barrel rate rank within the top 15% of players 21 years of age or younger. Though the hype may have died down slightly, it’s all systems go on Basallo.