Which Triple-A Pitchers Have Been Most Affected By Robo Umps?
Image credit: (Photo by Mike Janes/Four Seam Images)
On Wednesday, Baseball America reported data demonstrating how strike zones in Triple-A differ between games called by the full automated ball-strike system (ABS) and games where the challenge system is used. In the challenge system, which will be used exclusively in the second half of the Triple-A season, home plate umpire calls balls and strikes, but catchers, pitchers and hitters can appeal to the ABS system if they believe a call was missed.
Today, we’re getting more granular and looking at how individual Triple-A pitcher results differed between games where they pitched to the ABS system vs. the challenge system. For this, we looked at pitchers’ stats in Tuesday through Thursday games (which are ABS games) as well as their stats in Friday through Sunday games (which operate under the challenge system). The minimal number of Monday games were not studied.
But before sharing the data, we want to offer multiple words of caveats and caution. The nature of slicing data this thinly could easily lead to misconceptions or assumptions that are more a factor of small sample sizes than any actual differences.
Still, we’re presenting this information because we believe readers will find it useful. Someone may pull insights that we haven’t even thought about.
With that in mind, here are a few examples of why this data could be more noise than signal:
Other Trends May Masquerade As ABS/Challenge Differences
For starting pitchers, ABS/challenge starts have likely been grouped together. A pitcher on a once-a-week schedule pitching on every Tuesday, Friday or Sunday would not even show up on this list. A pitcher must have a minimum of 15 innings in both challenge games and ABS games to appear on these lists. Since the ABS games have been set for all Tuesday-Thursday games and the challenge games are all Friday-Sunday games, a pitcher who pitches on the same day every week will not appear.
But a pitcher who starts every six days (a more normal schedule) will have his ABS or challenge games grouped together. Let’s say a pitcher starts on Friday (challenge game) one week, then Thursday (ABS game) the following week, then Wednesday (ABS), then Tuesday (ABS), then Sunday (challenge) then Saturday (challenge), then Friday (challenge). If that pitcher was struggling for a month with his delivery or had a balky hamstring or doesn’t like cold weather or take your pick of numerous other external factors, it may appear that the ABS system doesn’t suit him, even if it really had nothing to do with it.
We’re Dealing With Small Sample Sizes
For pitchers with three or four starts in each system, one awful outing in an ABS system and one awesome outing in a challenge system might make his overall numbers look convincingly different, even if it had nothing to do with the ABS/challenge differences.
Small Sample Sizes Are Even More Significant For Relievers
We tried to use multiple stats (ERA, K%, BB%, Strike% and K-BB%) to illustrate differences, but any small sample size issues with starters may be even more pronounced with relievers.
With all those caveats explained, here’s a look at which Triple-A pitchers in 2024 had the most trouble in ABS games when compared to challenge games, as ranked by K-BB%. Negative numbers are where a pitcher’s challenge game stats are superior to ABS games.
| Player | ABS IP | Challenge IP | ABS era | Challenge ERA | era Diff. | K-B% Diff. | BB% Diff. | K% Diff. | Strike% diff. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Fluharty | 15.0 | 17.7 | 3.00 | 3.06 | -0.06 | -30.52% | 9.59% | -20.94% | -6.68% |
| Jack Leiter | 27.0 | 20.3 | 4.33 | 2.66 | 1.68 | -22.31% | 5.12% | -17.20% | 0.37% |
| Evan McKendry | 15.3 | 17.3 | 4.70 | 8.31 | -3.61 | -21.26% | 4.28% | -16.98% | -5.71% |
| Humberto Castellanos | 15.0 | 34.0 | 6.00 | 4.76 | 1.24 | -18.57% | 9.29% | -9.29% | -3.79% |
| Lake Bachar | 17.0 | 22.0 | 6.35 | 2.05 | 4.31 | -16.25% | -0.11% | -16.36% | 2.42% |
| Landon Knack | 15.3 | 33.0 | 4.70 | 3.00 | 1.70 | -14.44% | 3.95% | -10.50% | -0.73% |
| Eric Lauer | 25.7 | 23.7 | 5.26 | 6.46 | -1.21 | -14.00% | 5.45% | -8.55% | -4.61% |
| Paxton Schultz | 23.3 | 16.0 | 6.56 | 2.81 | 3.74 | -13.64% | 5.15% | -8.48% | -3.02% |
| Brett Kerry | 16.0 | 42.7 | 9.00 | 3.38 | 5.63 | -13.20% | 7.76% | -5.44% | -5.86% |
| Randy Dobnak | 23.7 | 39.7 | 6.85 | 3.18 | 3.67 | -12.80% | 4.20% | -8.60% | -3.95% |
| Aaron Brooks | 15.0 | 33.7 | 10.20 | 1.60 | 8.60 | -12.65% | 8.29% | -4.36% | -5.60% |
| Jackson Rutledge | 20.3 | 38.0 | 11.95 | 3.79 | 8.16 | -12.35% | 6.53% | -5.82% | -5.15% |
| Anthony Veneziano | 15.7 | 20.3 | 5.74 | 0.89 | 4.86 | -12.19% | 6.48% | -5.71% | -1.33% |
| Andrew Bash | 22.0 | 31.7 | 4.50 | 3.13 | 1.37 | -11.69% | 1.33% | -10.36% | -1.37% |
| Aaron Ashby | 24.7 | 27.0 | 8.03 | 7.33 | 0.69 | -11.53% | 7.89% | -3.63% | -9.35% |
| Thaddeus Ward | 19.7 | 32.3 | 9.61 | 5.29 | 4.32 | -11.08% | 0.98% | -10.10% | 0.06% |
| Chris Clarke | 21.7 | 21.3 | 6.65 | 3.38 | 3.27 | -9.74% | 7.44% | -2.30% | -5.91% |
| Edwin Escobar | 20.7 | 17.0 | 4.35 | 2.65 | 1.71 | -9.68% | 0.06% | -9.62% | -0.44% |
| Karl Kauffmann | 15.3 | 45.3 | 9.98 | 7.15 | 2.83 | -9.51% | 2.44% | -7.07% | 0.39% |
| Geronimo Franzua | 19.3 | 16.0 | 5.12 | 6.75 | -1.63 | -9.34% | 6.71% | -2.62% | 0.29% |
| Cade Povich | 21.7 | 35.0 | 2.08 | 3.86 | -1.78 | -9.07% | -1.35% | -10.42% | -1.70% |
| Louie Varland | 18.7 | 22.0 | 8.20 | 2.86 | 5.33 | -8.79% | 8.79% | 0.00% | -5.02% |
| Randy Wynne | 16.0 | 16.0 | 3.94 | 0.00 | 3.94 | -8.45% | 2.41% | -6.04% | -5.05% |
| Zach Plesac | 17.3 | 57.3 | 5.19 | 5.49 | -0.30 | -8.27% | -1.58% | -9.85% | 0.60% |
| Connor Phillips | 36.3 | 16.7 | 7.43 | 15.12 | -7.69 | -8.26% | 7.77% | -0.49% | -4.86% |
| Riley Thompson | 24.0 | 21.7 | 7.50 | 4.98 | 2.52 | -7.84% | 9.41% | 1.56% | -5.21% |
| Bruce Zimmermann | 21.0 | 18.3 | 2.14 | 6.87 | -4.73 | -7.67% | 3.73% | -3.94% | -5.35% |
| Edgar Barclay | 22.0 | 40.3 | 6.55 | 6.02 | 0.52 | -7.31% | 2.94% | -4.37% | -4.47% |
| Darren McCaughan | 32.0 | 22.0 | 5.34 | 5.73 | -0.38 | -7.18% | 5.24% | -1.93% | -2.68% |
| Chad Patrick | 28.7 | 37.3 | 1.88 | 3.62 | -1.73 | -6.64% | 2.46% | -4.18% | -1.50% |
| Tommy Romero | 24.7 | 39.0 | 5.11 | 1.85 | 3.26 | -6.59% | 3.49% | -3.11% | -1.84% |
| Sean Guenther | 15.7 | 15.0 | 4.60 | 1.80 | 2.80 | -6.15% | 2.24% | -3.90% | -3.02% |
| Garrett Stallings | 27.0 | 15.0 | 5.00 | 5.40 | -0.40 | -6.02% | 4.62% | -1.40% | -1.46% |
| Zach Logue | 18.7 | 32.3 | 3.38 | 3.34 | 0.03 | -5.80% | 1.45% | -4.35% | -2.25% |
| Edwin Uceta | 15.7 | 17.7 | 5.17 | 6.62 | -1.45 | -5.72% | -3.45% | -9.17% | 2.07% |
| Travis MacGregor | 17.7 | 20.3 | 4.58 | 2.66 | 1.93 | -5.59% | 0.59% | -5.00% | -4.80% |
| Brian Van Belle | 19.0 | 25.7 | 7.11 | 6.31 | 0.79 | -5.47% | 3.45% | -2.02% | -0.10% |
| Peyton Battenfield | 21.0 | 21.0 | 8.14 | 10.29 | -2.14 | -5.44% | 1.94% | -3.50% | -2.72% |
| Kenny Rosenberg | 23.3 | 44.7 | 3.86 | 3.83 | 0.03 | -5.28% | 3.61% | -1.66% | -2.24% |
| Casey Lawrence | 31.3 | 47.0 | 8.04 | 2.87 | 5.17 | -5.25% | 2.53% | -2.72% | -5.92% |
| Misael Tamarez | 23.3 | 28.3 | 7.71 | 7.62 | 0.09 | -5.17% | 2.34% | -2.83% | -2.13% |
| Grant Gambrell | 30.7 | 34.3 | 3.82 | 5.24 | -1.43 | -4.87% | -0.73% | -5.60% | 0.35% |
| Yonny Chirinos | 30.7 | 35.3 | 2.64 | 3.31 | -0.67 | -4.83% | 3.18% | -1.65% | 0.65% |
| Michael McGreevy | 41.7 | 32.3 | 4.54 | 5.85 | -1.31 | -4.70% | 1.75% | -2.95% | -0.62% |
| Levi Stoudt | 31.7 | 20.3 | 6.25 | 7.97 | -1.71 | -4.70% | -0.74% | -5.44% | -0.95% |
| Jhonathan Diaz | 16.0 | 56.3 | 1.13 | 3.51 | -2.39 | -4.59% | 2.18% | -2.41% | -1.14% |
| Hayden Juenger | 15.7 | 18.7 | 5.74 | 2.89 | 2.85 | -4.46% | 1.83% | -2.63% | -0.69% |
| Keider Montero | 26.7 | 16.7 | 7.43 | 1.08 | 6.35 | -4.36% | -4.26% | -8.63% | 0.94% |
| Adam Kloffenstein | 26.0 | 51.0 | 3.81 | 4.06 | -0.25 | -4.30% | 7.80% | 3.50% | -3.21% |
| Chad Kuhl | 18.7 | 37.3 | 6.75 | 3.13 | 3.62 | -4.16% | 6.40% | 2.23% | -0.84% |
| Johan Dominguez | 32.7 | 26.0 | 4.68 | 3.46 | 1.22 | -4.05% | 0.84% | -3.21% | 0.79% |
| Sem Robberse | 28.0 | 43.7 | 4.18 | 4.95 | -0.77 | -3.88% | 4.81% | 0.94% | -1.58% |
| Jake Woodford | 26.3 | 29.3 | 3.42 | 6.44 | -3.03 | -3.82% | 3.20% | -0.61% | -0.91% |
| Spenser Watkins | 35.0 | 32.0 | 4.89 | 3.94 | 0.95 | -3.51% | -0.74% | -4.25% | -0.19% |
| Justin Armbruester | 30.7 | 21.3 | 7.63 | 10.55 | -2.92 | -3.26% | -4.52% | -7.78% | -2.16% |
| Adonis Medina | 15.0 | 16.0 | 2.40 | 1.13 | 1.28 | -3.11% | -2.91% | -6.02% | 3.67% |
| Chayce McDermott | 33.3 | 26.3 | 5.40 | 1.37 | 4.03 | -2.90% | -4.63% | -7.53% | 0.98% |
| Paolo Espino | 20.0 | 23.3 | 6.75 | 2.70 | 4.05 | -2.89% | 2.33% | -0.56% | 2.27% |
| Julio Teheran | 15.3 | 27.3 | 9.39 | 8.23 | 1.16 | -2.81% | 0.16% | -2.66% | -2.22% |
| Jack O’Loughlin | 20.0 | 22.3 | 5.85 | 5.24 | 0.61 | -2.71% | 0.89% | -1.82% | -3.46% |
| Nathan Wiles | 18.7 | 33.7 | 7.23 | 5.61 | 1.62 | -2.61% | 3.22% | 0.61% | -4.79% |
| Tyler Woessner | 15.3 | 16.3 | 11.15 | 4.41 | 6.74 | -2.52% | 6.56% | 4.04% | 0.47% |
| Scott Blewett | 18.7 | 15.3 | 0.48 | 4.70 | -4.21 | -2.29% | 0.70% | -1.60% | 1.20% |
| Dylan Dodd | 32.7 | 31.7 | 5.23 | 4.55 | 0.69 | -2.00% | -1.75% | -3.75% | -1.94% |
| Luis Cessa | 22.0 | 20.3 | 3.68 | 4.43 | -0.74 | -1.99% | 2.06% | 0.07% | 1.31% |
| Konnor Pilkington | 17.3 | 22.0 | 5.71 | 8.18 | -2.47 | -1.94% | 0.75% | -1.20% | 0.77% |
| Darius Vines | 25.3 | 21.3 | 4.62 | 6.75 | -2.13 | -1.68% | 0.80% | -0.87% | 0.12% |
| Ronny Henriquez | 16.7 | 18.7 | 3.24 | 3.86 | -0.62 | -1.52% | 1.78% | 0.26% | -4.10% |
| Brett Kennedy | 24.7 | 18.3 | 8.03 | 7.36 | 0.66 | -1.51% | 1.61% | 0.10% | 0.09% |
| Troy Watson | 18.7 | 18.0 | 6.27 | 10.00 | -3.73 | -1.40% | 0.72% | -0.67% | -3.52% |
| Joey Lucchesi | 34.0 | 32.0 | 5.29 | 2.81 | 2.48 | -1.40% | -3.87% | -5.26% | 1.02% |
| Domingo German | 15.3 | 15.3 | 5.87 | 6.46 | -0.59 | -0.94% | -3.17% | -4.11% | -0.30% |
| Josh Rogers | 16.0 | 30.3 | 5.06 | 5.64 | -0.57 | -0.51% | -2.37% | -2.88% | 4.39% |
| Carlos F. Rodriguez | 15.7 | 47.0 | 6.32 | 4.79 | 1.53 | -0.16% | -2.24% | -2.40% | 0.99% |
And here’s a look at which Triple-A pitchers had the most trouble in challenge games when compared to ABS games, also ranked by K-BB%. Positive numbers indicate better pitcher stats in ABS games compared to challenge games.
| player | Abs IP | Challenge ip | abs ERA | challenge era | era Diff. | K-B% diff. | BB% Diff. | K% Diff. | Strike% Diff. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominic Hamel | 30.0 | 21.7 | 4.50 | 9.97 | -5.47 | 24.75% | -14.29% | 10.46% | 3.51% |
| Allan Winans | 38.7 | 21.0 | 1.86 | 5.57 | -3.71 | 19.21% | 0.06% | 19.26% | -1.58% |
| Richard Fitts | 33.0 | 22.7 | 3.27 | 5.56 | -2.29 | 14.37% | -7.26% | 7.10% | 3.22% |
| Yoendrys Gomez | 24.0 | 22.0 | 1.50 | 4.91 | -3.41 | 14.31% | -9.38% | 4.93% | 3.29% |
| Carson Whisenhunt | 16.0 | 33.3 | 3.94 | 4.86 | -0.92 | 13.54% | -1.50% | 12.04% | 4.85% |
| Anthony Misiewicz | 15.7 | 15.0 | 1.72 | 4.80 | -3.08 | 13.18% | 0.76% | 13.94% | -0.05% |
| Mick Abel | 15.0 | 35.7 | 6.00 | 7.32 | -1.32 | 12.48% | -7.09% | 5.39% | -0.64% |
| Blake Walston | 17.3 | 18.3 | 5.71 | 3.44 | 2.28 | 11.77% | -4.20% | 7.57% | 9.25% |
| Joan Adon | 20.3 | 30.0 | 1.77 | 8.70 | -6.93 | 10.68% | -8.31% | 2.37% | 3.28% |
| Tucker Davidson | 16.7 | 21.7 | 3.78 | 2.08 | 1.70 | 9.65% | -3.78% | 5.87% | 4.29% |
| Gerson Moreno | 15.0 | 15.0 | 5.40 | 7.20 | -1.80 | 9.64% | -8.01% | 1.63% | 6.61% |
| Oddanier Mosqueda | 17.3 | 16.7 | 5.19 | 3.78 | 1.41 | 9.63% | -6.31% | 3.32% | 0.92% |
| A.J. Blubaugh | 17.7 | 36.3 | 5.60 | 3.22 | 2.38 | 9.36% | -4.07% | 5.29% | -0.21% |
| Chad Dallas | 15.0 | 23.0 | 6.00 | 7.04 | -1.04 | 8.77% | -5.79% | 2.98% | 2.21% |
| Kai-Wei Teng | 16.3 | 17.0 | 8.82 | 11.12 | -2.30 | 8.42% | -5.47% | 2.95% | 1.04% |
| Eric Orze | 15.0 | 15.3 | 4.80 | 2.93 | 1.87 | 7.58% | -6.06% | 1.52% | -0.03% |
| Joe Rock | 34.7 | 26.0 | 3.63 | 4.15 | -0.52 | 7.10% | -0.33% | 6.77% | -0.38% |
| Lyon Richardson | 29.0 | 33.3 | 3.41 | 6.21 | -2.80 | 7.06% | -2.51% | 4.56% | 4.59% |
| Carson Seymour | 27.0 | 35.3 | 2.67 | 5.60 | -2.94 | 6.37% | -1.18% | 5.19% | 3.93% |
| David Buchanan | 33.7 | 29.0 | 4.81 | 6.21 | -1.40 | 5.88% | -8.81% | -2.93% | 4.00% |
| Gabe Mosser | 19.3 | 21.3 | 3.72 | 9.28 | -5.56 | 5.71% | -3.10% | 2.62% | 1.87% |
| Jonathan Cannon | 18.7 | 19.0 | 4.34 | 6.63 | -2.29 | 5.71% | -0.26% | 5.46% | 3.16% |
| Kevin Kopps | 16.3 | 15.7 | 3.86 | 6.89 | -3.04 | 5.16% | 0.33% | 5.49% | 2.49% |
| Connor Thomas | 20.7 | 21.0 | 2.61 | 4.71 | -2.10 | 4.82% | 5.67% | 10.48% | -3.97% |
| Walter Pennington | 19.3 | 25.0 | 3.26 | 1.08 | 2.18 | 4.59% | -2.72% | 1.87% | 2.00% |
| Will Warren | 37.7 | 22.7 | 6.93 | 7.15 | -0.22 | 4.44% | -8.21% | -3.77% | 0.01% |
| Carson Spiers | 21.7 | 25.0 | 2.49 | 2.52 | -0.03 | 4.09% | -0.15% | 3.94% | -3.56% |
| Will Dion | 24.3 | 33.3 | 4.81 | 7.02 | -2.21 | 3.90% | -3.43% | 0.48% | -2.57% |
| Taylor Widener | 20.7 | 20.0 | 6.53 | 6.75 | -0.22 | 3.44% | -2.95% | 0.49% | 0.63% |
| Daulton Jefferies | 19.7 | 19.3 | 4.58 | 5.12 | -0.54 | 3.26% | -0.24% | 3.02% | 4.58% |
| Thomas Pannone | 30.7 | 36.3 | 4.99 | 3.96 | 1.03 | 2.81% | -0.32% | 2.49% | -4.27% |
| Cristian Mena | 21.0 | 50.7 | 3.86 | 4.97 | -1.12 | 2.52% | -2.91% | -0.39% | 2.78% |
| Dinelson Lamet | 18.7 | 18.7 | 2.41 | 7.23 | -4.82 | 2.42% | -1.64% | 0.79% | -0.17% |
| Colton Gordon | 20.7 | 17.7 | 6.10 | 3.57 | 2.53 | 1.79% | -0.36% | 1.43% | -0.72% |
| Connor Gillispie | 23.7 | 39.7 | 6.08 | 3.63 | 2.45 | 1.61% | 0.69% | 2.30% | -0.32% |
| Adrian Sampson | 26.7 | 39.0 | 4.39 | 5.08 | -0.69 | 1.56% | -3.32% | -1.76% | 2.15% |
| Caleb Boushley | 47.3 | 17.3 | 4.18 | 3.12 | 1.07 | 1.40% | -5.24% | -3.84% | 1.03% |
| Tyler Phillips | 20.0 | 60.0 | 6.75 | 4.50 | 2.25 | 1.15% | -3.62% | -2.47% | 3.00% |
| Gordon Graceffo | 42.0 | 28.0 | 2.79 | 6.11 | -3.32 | 0.22% | 1.21% | 1.42% | 0.97% |
| Brant Hurter | 22.7 | 20.7 | 5.16 | 5.66 | -0.50 | 0.19% | -6.68% | -6.49% | 3.14% |
| David Festa | 15.0 | 39.0 | 2.40 | 3.92 | -1.52 | 0.09% | 2.82% | 2.91% | 1.18% |
| Daniel Lynch | 27.7 | 23.7 | 6.18 | 2.66 | 3.52 | 0.07% | 3.71% | 3.78% | 0.33% |
| Sam McWilliams | 22.0 | 19.3 | 4.91 | 8.84 | -3.94 | 0.01% | 1.52% | 1.53% | -2.09% |
And here are the same rankings for 2023. For this, we’ve included everyone who had 20+ innings in both systems.
| Player | ABS IP | CH. IP | ABS ERA | Ch. ERA | ERA DIFF | K% – BB% Diff. | BB% Diff. | K% Diff. | Strike% Diff. |
| Cade Povich | 21.3 | 35.0 | 6.75 | 3.86 | 2.89 | -19.27% | 5.30% | -13.96% | 0.24% |
| Yosver Zulueta | 31.7 | 20.7 | 1.99 | 0.87 | 1.12 | -14.28% | 11.60% | -2.67% | -7.87% |
| Shaun Anderson | 22.3 | 23.7 | 4.03 | 2.28 | 1.75 | -13.84% | 2.05% | -11.79% | -1.70% |
| Osvaldo Bido | 25.3 | 38.7 | 4.26 | 3.96 | 0.31 | -13.75% | 6.79% | -6.96% | -2.40% |
| Jackson Rutledge | 21.0 | 38.0 | 5.57 | 3.79 | 1.78 | -13.13% | 5.79% | -7.34% | -9.60% |
| Riley Thompson | 44.7 | 21.7 | 5.84 | 4.98 | 0.86 | -12.28% | 10.12% | -2.16% | -7.82% |
| Louie Varland | 30.3 | 22.0 | 5.64 | 2.86 | 2.77 | -11.66% | 6.63% | -5.03% | -1.70% |
| Dylan Dodd | 24.7 | 31.7 | 9.49 | 4.55 | 4.94 | -9.77% | 2.00% | -7.77% | -4.29% |
| Walter Pennington | 30.3 | 25.0 | 3.56 | 1.08 | 2.48 | -9.71% | 0.53% | -9.18% | -4.41% |
| Randy Dobnak | 56.7 | 39.7 | 4.76 | 3.18 | 1.59 | -9.34% | 1.58% | -7.76% | -0.90% |
| Peyton Battenfield | 25.3 | 21.0 | 5.33 | 10.29 | -4.96 | -8.71% | 4.55% | -4.17% | -5.19% |
| Anthony Veneziano | 30.3 | 20.3 | 6.23 | 0.89 | 5.35 | -8.54% | 4.82% | -3.72% | -3.60% |
| Jonathan Bowlan | 28.0 | 35.3 | 6.43 | 4.58 | 1.84 | -8.53% | -1.07% | -9.60% | -3.24% |
| Darren McCaughan | 29.3 | 22.0 | 7.36 | 5.73 | 1.64 | -8.43% | 0.40% | -8.04% | -3.67% |
| Josh Rogers | 36.0 | 30.3 | 8.25 | 5.64 | 2.61 | -8.08% | 2.81% | -5.27% | -2.86% |
| Tyler Phillips | 22.7 | 60.0 | 3.57 | 4.50 | -0.93 | -7.80% | 2.35% | -5.45% | -4.43% |
| Zach Logue | 48.0 | 32.3 | 6.19 | 3.34 | 2.85 | -7.50% | 3.71% | -3.79% | -2.12% |
| Zach Plesac | 42.0 | 57.3 | 5.36 | 5.49 | -0.14 | -7.39% | 3.36% | -4.03% | -3.81% |
| Tommy Romero | 45.3 | 39.0 | 6.95 | 1.85 | 5.10 | -7.34% | 5.30% | -2.03% | -1.91% |
| Andrew Bash | 21.7 | 31.7 | 2.08 | 3.13 | -1.05 | -6.99% | 0.83% | -6.17% | -0.08% |
| Connor Thomas | 41.3 | 21.0 | 4.79 | 4.71 | 0.08 | -6.88% | 6.27% | -0.61% | -4.79% |
| Jhonathan Diaz | 30.3 | 56.3 | 4.45 | 3.51 | 0.94 | -6.45% | 4.07% | -2.37% | -2.21% |
| Adam Kloffenstein | 24.0 | 51.0 | 2.63 | 4.06 | -1.43 | -6.17% | 5.98% | -0.18% | -4.64% |
| Quinn Priester | 57.7 | 20.7 | 3.90 | 2.61 | 1.29 | -5.65% | 0.71% | -4.94% | -1.78% |
| Wily Peralta | 48.7 | 22.7 | 3.51 | 6.75 | -3.24 | -4.46% | 4.59% | 0.12% | -5.89% |
| Michael McGreevy | 51.0 | 32.3 | 3.35 | 5.85 | -2.49 | -4.46% | -0.87% | -5.33% | 2.19% |
| Jack O’Loughlin | 47.7 | 22.3 | 5.29 | 5.24 | 0.05 | -3.79% | 0.91% | -2.89% | -1.76% |
| Jason Alexander | 25.7 | 47.0 | 4.91 | 4.40 | 0.50 | -3.76% | -0.29% | -4.05% | -0.70% |
| Gordon Graceffo | 40.3 | 28.0 | 4.02 | 6.11 | -2.09 | -3.12% | 3.53% | 0.41% | -0.30% |
| Travis MacGregor | 22.3 | 20.3 | 6.85 | 2.66 | 4.20 | -3.07% | -0.83% | -3.90% | -1.00% |
| Jeff Criswell | 41.7 | 23.0 | 8.21 | 5.09 | 3.12 | -3.05% | -1.06% | -4.10% | -3.02% |
| Chris Clarke | 22.7 | 21.3 | 3.18 | 3.38 | -0.20 | -2.42% | 0.74% | -1.68% | -3.87% |
| Nathan Wiles | 38.3 | 33.7 | 6.81 | 5.61 | 1.19 | -2.37% | 2.83% | 0.46% | -1.25% |
| Roddery Munoz | 28.0 | 36.0 | 5.46 | 5.75 | -0.29 | -2.12% | 10.48% | 8.36% | -4.30% |
| Paul Fry | 23.3 | 23.3 | 7.71 | 5.40 | 2.31 | -1.67% | 7.39% | 5.72% | -4.02% |
| Justin Armbruester | 44.0 | 21.3 | 4.91 | 10.55 | -5.64 | -1.39% | -2.56% | -3.95% | 0.68% |
| Misael Tamarez | 44.7 | 28.3 | 4.63 | 7.62 | -2.99 | -0.42% | 2.53% | 2.11% | 0.42% |
| Levi Stoudt | 28.3 | 20.3 | 7.62 | 7.97 | -0.34 | -0.23% | -1.87% | -2.10% | -0.39% |
| Hogan Harris | 38.7 | 24.7 | 8.61 | 6.93 | 1.68 | -0.12% | 0.00% | -0.12% | -1.82% |
| Casey Lawrence | 59.0 | 47.0 | 3.66 | 2.87 | 0.79 | 0.01% | 1.76% | 1.78% | -4.91% |
| Bryan Sammons | 20.7 | 56.7 | 3.92 | 3.34 | 0.58 | 0.11% | 3.91% | 4.01% | -4.14% |
| Darius Vines | 28.3 | 21.3 | 2.86 | 6.75 | -3.89 | 0.22% | 1.96% | 2.17% | -0.11% |
| Paolo Espino | 24.3 | 23.3 | 6.29 | 2.70 | 3.59 | 1.30% | 2.59% | 3.89% | -3.53% |
| Justin Hagenman | 36.0 | 26.3 | 2.75 | 6.15 | -3.40 | 1.43% | -3.39% | -1.96% | -0.39% |
| Jose Butto | 34.3 | 25.3 | 7.34 | 4.26 | 3.08 | 1.91% | 0.76% | 2.67% | 0.17% |
| Joey Lucchesi | 45.3 | 32.0 | 4.17 | 2.81 | 1.36 | 3.48% | -2.08% | 1.39% | -4.37% |
| Will Warren | 47.0 | 22.7 | 2.68 | 7.15 | -4.47 | 3.65% | -4.48% | -0.83% | 0.34% |
| Geoff Hartlieb | 21.0 | 24.3 | 3.43 | 3.70 | -0.27 | 4.26% | -0.56% | 3.70% | -1.09% |
| Luis Cessa | 21.0 | 20.3 | 6.43 | 4.43 | 2.00 | 5.00% | -0.44% | 4.56% | 1.67% |
| Karl Kauffmann | 31.0 | 45.3 | 6.10 | 7.15 | -1.05 | 5.94% | -5.05% | 0.89% | 2.15% |
| Thomas Pannone | 25.7 | 36.3 | 2.81 | 3.96 | -1.16 | 6.14% | -4.31% | 1.83% | 0.06% |
| Allan Winans | 51.7 | 21.0 | 2.96 | 5.57 | -2.61 | 7.03% | 0.63% | 7.66% | -4.54% |
| Chayce McDermott | 21.0 | 26.3 | 0.86 | 1.37 | -0.51 | 7.67% | -10.20% | -2.53% | 1.91% |
| Joan Adon | 35.3 | 30.0 | 4.08 | 8.70 | -4.62 | 13.45% | -8.11% | 5.34% | 5.44% |
With the above caveats in mind, here’s an attempt to draw some general assumptions about the data.
Pitchers with modest fastball velocities and east-west pitchers shouldn’t be fans of the ABS system
Mason Fluharty is a fastball/sweeper lefty who sits in the high 80s. Evan McKendry is a righthander with a 90-92 mph fastball, a changeup and a sweeper. Humberto Castellanos, Randy Dobnak and, to an extent, Landon Knack all fit these criteria. There are exceptions at the top of the list of pitchers who excel in challenge games (Jack Leiter most notably), but pitchers with below-average fastball velocity and an array of pitches aren’t well suited for the more narrow ABS zone.
These pitchers are often looking to work the edges of the zone in and out. With a human umpire, they can sometimes “earn” that extra inch or two on the inner/outer edge of the plate by hitting those spots repeatedly with command.
Elevated fastballs and north-south pitchers are best suited for ABS
Mick Abel loves to elevate his fastball at the top of the zone. That’s a pitch that is very effective at finding the ABS zone. Dominic Hamel seems ill-suited for an ABS zone in some ways, as his sweeper will work on the edge of the zone at times, but he does have a 93-95 mph fastball that works up and down in the zone.
Lyon Richardson has a big (95 mph) fastball he wants to work up in the zone and rarely throws in and out or down to the bottom of the zone. That’s a perfect ABS zone pitch. He pairs it with a changeup he relies on heavily that works at the bottom of the zone. He also throws a slider, but his north-south approach with his fastball-changeup seems to fit the ABS zone well.
