Which Teams Got The Best First Round Value In The 2020 MLB Draft?

Image credit: (Photo by Alex Trautwig/MLB Photos via Getty Images)

With Austin Martin and Garrett Mitchell coming to terms with the Blue Jays and Brewers this week, every 2020 first-round pick has now signed with their respective club.

That gives major league teams back-to-back years of successfully signing every first-round pick on the heels of a 2018 draft that saw three high school players taken in the first round—No. 8 Carter Stewart (Braves), No. 25 Matt McLain (Diamondbacks) and No. 30 J.T. Ginn (Dodgers)—fail to come to an agreement.

With signing bonuses now official, we can examine how the industry put the dollar sign on the muscle. MLB’s draft differs from the NBA and NFL in many ways, but perhaps the biggest difference is the lack of a hard slotting system. With teams implementing different financial strategies—such as spending most of its pool up top, spreading out the money evenly or saving money early to spend more for later picks—it’s not as simple as looking at the draft order to determine how the industry lined up the talent.

To do that effectively, it’s more beneficial to follow the money. Here is how the 2020 first round would look based on signing bonuses.

Pick	Team	Player	Signing Bonus
1	DET	Spencer Torkelson	$8,416,300
5	TOR	Austin Martin	$7,000,825
3	MIA	Max Meyer	$6,700,000
4	KC	Asa Lacy	$6,670,000
6	SEA	Emerson Hancock	$5,700,000
7	PIT	Nick Gonzales	$5,432,400
2	BAL	Heston Kjerstad	$5,200,000
9	COL	Zac Veen	$5,000,000
10	LAA	Reid Detmers	$4,670,000
11	CWS	Garrett Crochet	$4,547,500
8	SD	Robert Hassell	$4,300,000
15	PHI	Mick Abel	$4,075,000
12	CIN	Austin Hendrick	$4,000,000
13	SF	Patrick Bailey	$3,797,500
16	CHI	Ed Howard IV	$3,745,500
19	NY	Pete Crow-Armstrong	$3,359,000
26	OAK	Tyler Soderstrom	$3,300,000
14	TEX	Justin Foscue	$3,250,000
20	MIL	Garrett Mitchell	$3,242,900
22	WSH	Cade Cavalli	$3,027,000
24	TB	Nick Bitsko	$3,000,000
21	STL	Jordan Walker	$2,900,000
27	MIN	Aaron Sabato	$2,750,000
17	BOS	Nick Yorke	$2,700,000
18	ARI	Bryce Jarvis	$2,650,000
28	NYY	Austin Wells	$2,500,000
29	LA	Bobby Miller	$2,197,500
25	ATL	Jared Shuster	$2,197,500
23	CLE	Carson Tucker	$2,000,000

Four of Baseball America’s top five draft prospects are among the top five signing bonuses, with Minnesota righthander Max Meyer (10) jumping into the fold and pushing New Mexico State shortstop Nick Gonzales (5) to the sixth-highest bonus.

This list could change the way you look at the first round, but it doesn’t tell you which teams got the most bang for its buck. While the definitive answer to that question won’t come for many years as players progress (or fail to progress) in their professional careers, we can examine the best values given current information.

For this, we’ll turn to our pre-draft rankings of the 2020 class and line up each of the first-round players with the slot values assigned to their respective rank. For example, Arizona State first baseman Spencer Torkelson, the No. 1 player in the class, would be assigned a $8,415,300 value—the assigned slot for the No. 1 pick. On the other end of the spectrum, Archbishop Mitty High second baseman Nick Yorke, the No. 96 player in the class, would be assigned a $604,800—the assigned slot for the No. 96 pick. You can find the slot values for all five rounds here.

Hopefully this serves as a good proxy for value when taking the difference in players’ actual signing bonuses and their assigned values based on BA 500 rankings.

Pick	Rank	Team	Player	Actual Bonus	Assigned Value	Difference
20	6	MIL	Garrett Mitchell	$3,242,900	$5,742,900	-$2,500,000
6	4	SEA	Emerson Hancock	$5,700,000	$6,664,000	-$964,000
12	0	CIN	Austin Hendrick	$4,000,000	$4,949,100	-$949,100
5	2	TOR	Austin Martin	$7,000,825	$7,789,900	-$789,075
7	5	PIT	Nick Gonzales	$5,432,400	$6,180,700	-$748,300
28	21	NYY	Austin Wells	$2,500,000	$3,132,300	-$632,300
4	3	KC	Asa Lacy	$6,670,000	$7,221,200	-$551,200
10	8	LAA	Reid Detmers	$4,670,000	$5,176,900	-$506,900
15	11	PHI	Mick Abel	$4,075,000	$4,547,500	-$472,500
9	7	COL	Zac Veen	$5,000,000	$5,432,400	-$432,400
24	19	TB	Nick Bitsko	$3,000,000	$3,359,000	-$359,000
29	28	LA	Robert Miller	$2,197,500	$2,493,900	-$296,400
19	17	NY	Pete Crow-Armstrong	$3,359,000	$3,609,700	-$250,700
13	14	SF	Patrick Bailey	$3,797,500	$4,036,800	-$239,300
26	18	OAK	Tyler Soderstrom	$3,300,000	$3,481,300	-$181,300
22	22	WSH	Cade Cavalli	$3,027,000	$3,027,000	$0
1	1	DET	Spencer Torkelson	$8,416,300	$8,415,300	$1,000
25	43	ATL	Jared Shuster	$2,197,500	$1,729,800	$467,700
16	20	CHI	Ed Howard IV	$3,745,500	$3,242,900	$502,600
8	16	SD	Robert Hassell	$4,300,000	$3,745,500	$554,500
18	37	ARI	Bryce Jarvis	$2,650,000	$1,999,300	$650,700
27	35	MIN	Aaron Sabato	$2,750,000	$2,095,800	$654,200
11	15	CWS	Garrett Crochet	$4,547,500	$3,885,800	$661,700
21	34	STL	Jordan Walker	$2,900,000	$2,148,100	$751,900
23	61	CLE	Carson Tucker	$2,000,000	$1,129,700	$870,300
2	13	BAL	Heston Kjerstad	$5,200,000	$4,197,300	$1,002,700
14	36	TEX	Justin Foscue	$3,250,000	$2,045,400	$1,204,600
3	10	MIA	Max Meyer	$6,700,000	$4,739,900	$1,960,100
17	96	BOS	Nick Yorke	$2,700,000	$604,800	$2,095,200

It’s unsurprising that Mitchell tops this list, as the No. 6 overall prospect fell to the Brewers and the 20th selection in the draft. However, the $2.5 million in surplus value does speak to Mitchell’s talent and this quote from scouting director Tod Johnson after the fact:

“Coming into the draft time frame, into the season, would I have thought he might get to 20? Maybe not,” Johnson said after the draft. “Once we knew he was there, it was a relatively easy choice for us,” he said. “We had him pretty much at the top of the board of the guys we had remaining.”

The other top four values were all players selected among the top 15 picks, and stem from the Orioles and the Marlins selecting Heston Kjerstad (13) and Max Meyer (10) among the top three picks, pushing down players like Austin Martin, Emerson Hancock and Nick Gonzales.

Pennsylvania prep outfielder Austin Hendrick is the sole high school prospect to rank among the top five in this measure of value. Hendrick provides the Reds just under a million in assigned value after ranking ninth and being selected 12th, and signing for $366,400 under slot.

At the opposite end of the spectrum, it’s also unsurprising that Yorke was the “least valuable” first round selection given his pre-draft ranking. However, as we have written about and talked about previously, that doesn’t make this pick crazy, by any means.

Outside of any measure of value, it’s also worth looking at a chart of signing bonuses compared to MLB’s assigned slot values, to see which players got the biggest overslot deals and which players took the biggest haircuts.

Pick	Team	Player	Slot Value	Signing Bonus	Diff.
5	TOR	Austin Martin	$6,180,700	$7,000,825	$820,125
26	OAK	Tyler Soderstrom	$2,653,400	$3,300,000	$646,600
15	PHI	Mick Abel	$3,885,800	$4,075,000	$189,200
27	MIN	Aaron Sabato	$2,570,100	$2,750,000	$179,900
24	TB	Nick Bitsko	$2,831,300	$3,000,000	$168,700
9	COL	Zac Veen	$4,949,100	$5,000,000	$50,900
28	NYY	Austin Wells	$2,493,900	$2,500,000	$6,100
4	KC	Asa Lacy	$6,664,000	$6,670,000	$6,000
1	DET	Spencer Torkelson	$8,415,300	$8,416,300	$1,000
7	PIT	Nick Gonzales	$5,432,400	$5,432,400	$0
11	CWS	Garrett Crochet	$4,547,500	$4,547,500	$0
16	CHI	Ed Howard IV	$3,745,500	$3,745,500	$0
19	NY	Pete Crow-Armstrong	$3,359,000	$3,359,000	$0
20	MIL	Garrett Mitchell	$3,242,900	$3,242,900	$0
22	WSH	Cade Cavalli	$3,027,000	$3,027,000	$0
6	SEA	Emerson Hancock	$5,742,900	$5,700,000	-$42,900
10	LAA	Reid Detmers	$4,739,900	$4,670,000	-$69,900
29	LA	Robert Miller	$2,424,600	$2,197,500	-$227,100
21	STL	Jordan Walker	$3,132,300	$2,900,000	-$232,300
12	CIN	Austin Hendrick	$4,366,400	$4,000,000	-$366,400
13	SF	Patrick Bailey	$4,197,300	$3,797,500	-$399,800
3	MIA	Max Meyer	$7,221,200	$6,700,000	-$521,200
25	ATL	Jared Shuster	$2,740,300	$2,197,500	-$542,800
14	TEX	Justin Foscue	$4,036,800	$3,250,000	-$786,800
18	ARI	Bryce Jarvis	$3,481,300	$2,650,000	-$831,300
8	SD	Robert Hassell	$5,176,900	$4,300,000	-$876,900
17	BOS	Nicholas Yorke	$3,609,700	$2,700,000	-$909,700
23	CLE	Carson Tucker	$2,926,800	$2,000,000	-$926,800
2	BAL	Heston Kjerstad	$7,789,900	$5,200,000	-$2,589,900