Which Player Will Bounce Back In 2024?

Image credit: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (Photo/Tom DiPace)

In a series of MLB predictions and preview posts, BA’s editorial staff goes on record with their bold—and not so bold—thoughts about what’s to come in the 2024 season.

We ask the question: Which player will bounce back in 2024?

Our nine prognosticators this year are Ben Badler (BB), Mark Chiarelli (MC), Carlos Collazo (CC), JJ Cooper (JJ), Matt Eddy (ME), Savannah McCann (SM), Josh Norris (JN), Geoff Pontes (GP) and Dylan White (DW).

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Guerrero’s performance over the last two years encapsulates Toronto’s present situation. He certainly hasn’t been bad, posting a 116 wRC+ in 2023, but that’s a far cry from his 48-homer season in 2021 and is underwhelming relative to his thunderous potential. Similarly, the Blue Jays continue to hover around 90 wins and haven’t won a playoff game yet with Guerrero and Bo Bichette at their core. The clock’s ticking, and it’s not about to get any easier in a loaded AL East. Guerrero’s power output is a bit confounding given his penchant for hard contact, but there are enhancements to be made to his approach, especially against fastballs, and pitch selection, plus his conditioning/durability. Guerrero is one of baseball’s magnetic stars and is two years away from free agency. I’m betting he puts the pieces together in 2024 and shows Toronto it can rely on him for years to come. (MC)

Guerrero was still productive last year with a 117 OPS+, but it was a significant step down from what he had done the previous two seasons. He’s 25 and still entering the prime of his career with the offensive skill set still to post another monster season like he had when he finished runner up for American League MVP in 2021. (BB)

Daulton Varsho

It wasn’t just Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette who experienced down years in 2023. Varsho struggled in his first season in Toronto. He has discussed how he sold out for power, leading to a career-high infield flyball rate of 19%. The drop in quality of contact at the expense of more loft was the driving force behind his low batting average on balls in play and precipitous drop in offensive value year over year. Varsho should rebound in 2024 and produce numbers closer to his career norms. (GP)

Carlos Correa

Fresh off signing a six-year, $200 million contract, Correa turned in his worst full season for the Twins in 2023. This seems aberrational for a 29-year-old who was valued at more than $300 million in offers by the Giants and Mets just a year earlier. Correa did not exactly prove his doubters wrong last season when he was slowed with plantar fasciitis, but he modified his offseason routine heading into 2024 with an eye toward being more explosive. (ME)

Byron Buxton

Last year was not only a lost year for Buxton, but it also seemed almost pointless. Buxton at his best is an exceptional defender in center field who contributes with his glove, his speed and his power. He never played a game in the field in 2023 and didn’t run much when he did get on base. His knee seems healthier this year, which should allow him to return to being at least a semblance of the dynamic, well-rounded star he had shown in the past when healthy. (JJ)

Giancarlo Stanton

He seems to have shed some of the muscle and appears more lithe and athletic. If it helps him stay on the field more often, he could provide more of his signature punch. (JN)