What To Watch For This Weekend In College Baseball (5/18)

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As the regular season winds down, there is plenty at stake across the country. Rather than focus on five individual matchups, this week’s piece will instead discuss each of the Power Five conferences and highlight why this weekend is so pivotal for several teams. Whether it be determining a regular season conference champion or even just qualifying for the conference tournament, these next three days serve as a “last chance” for many teams across the country.

SEC

In what is usually the case each weekend, the SEC has a number of significant series. The biggest one this weekend is without a doubt No. 2 Arkansas (38-13, 19-8) traveling to Nashville to take on No. 12 Vanderbilt (35-16, 17-10). The Razorbacks come into this weekend fresh off a series win over a reeling South Carolina team, while the Commodores were soundly swept by No. 3 Florida (40-12, 18-9) in Gainesville. Arkansas is just half a game up on second-place Florida in the conference standings and while other clubs mathematically have a chance, the regular season SEC crown will likely belong to either the Gators or Razorbacks. With RPIs of 3 and 6, respectively, both Arkansas and Florida are safe bets at this point to secure a top-eight national seed and a series win for either team would all but clinch that. While No. 5 Louisiana State (40-12, 17-9) has dropped each of its last two series and has had serious issues with its pitching as of late, this weekend it travels to Georgia (28-24, 10-17), where it has the chance to build some momentum heading into the conference tournament. Even with how poorly they have been playing, the Tigers have perhaps the best chance of any team vying for the SEC regular season title to pull off a sweep. While a sweep of the Bulldogs would not guarantee a first-place finish for Jay Johnson’s club, it certainly would put it in a great spot.

Two teams that are currently headed in opposite directions are No. 10 South Carolina (37-15, 15-11) and No. 19 Tennessee (36-17, 14-13). The Gamecocks were being discussed as the potential No. 1 overall seed as recently as three weeks ago but have since dropped each of their last three SEC series as well as two midweek games to North Florida and UNC Charlotte. The No. 1 overall seed ship has sailed and while South Carolina would host if the season ended today, a series loss this weekend to the Volunteers would put it in a precarious position. After a sluggish start to its season, Tennessee comes into this weekend having won two of its last three SEC series, which included a sweep of No. 12 Vanderbilt and a series win over No. 20 Kentucky (35-15, 15-12). Tennessee has the metrics to potentially host, but it absolutely needs a road series win in Columbia. For as poorly as South Carolina is playing, winning two of three road games will be easier said than done for the Volunteers as they are a woeful 2-11 in true road games this season. As far as bubble teams are concerned, both Missouri (30-20, 10-17) and Georgia must win their respective series, while Texas A&M (30-22, 12-15) needs to take at least two of three from Mississippi State to remain on the right side of the bubble.

ACC

No. 1 Wake Forest (43-8, 20-6) secured the regular season ACC title last week, but there are still meaningful ACC series this weekend. As far as tournament implications are concerned, the most significant matchup is Notre Dame (29-20, 14-13) at Boston College (32-16, 14-13). The Fighting Irish would put themselves in an excellent position to earn an at-large berth with a quality road series win, whereas a series win for the Eagles would likely secure a top-16 national seed and the first-ever Brighton Regional. A series loss for BC would make hosting a real uphill battle as it would likely need a strong showing in the conference tournament, but it is safely in the NCAA Tournament with an RPI of 13 and 13 wins against teams with a top-50 RPI. North Carolina State (31-18, 10-16) hosts Pittsburgh (23-27, 10-15) in what is a must-win series for the Wolfpack. Not only do they need this series to have a chance at an at-large bid, but their 10-16 conference record ranks 12th among 14 teams in the conference and it is not a guarantee they even make the conference tournament.

The Coastal Division is extremely tight at the top with just half a game separating No. 14 Virginia (41-11, 16-11), No. 9 Miami (35-17, 16-11) and No. 12 Duke (34-17, 15-11). The Blue Devils and Hurricanes square off this weekend and both clubs are in a fine spot to end up atop the division. The Cavaliers own the tiebreaker over the Hurricanes thanks to their series sweep in early April, but not over Duke, who they lost a series to three weeks ago. Virginia this weekend has a favorable matchup as it travels to Georgia Tech (30-22, 12-15), and I am not sure either Miami or Duke will get the help they need to gain the necessary game on UVA. Even if the Cavaliers were to drop a game this weekend, the Hurricanes or Blue Devils would need a sweep. There is the potential for all three to host, but after tough midweek losses to Rider and Gardner-Webb, I think Duke is on the outside looking in right now. A series win in Coral Gables likely changes that, but that is easier said than done with Miami’s 26-4 home record. Elsewhere, the Demon Deacons can further strengthen their resume for the No. 1 overall seed with a series win over Virginia Tech (29-19, 11-15), while No. 16 Clemson (36-17, 17-10), who is playing arguably the best baseball of anyone in the country, is seeking its seventh consecutive ACC series win and  is very much in the hunt for a top-eight national seed as it takes on North Carolina (33-18, 14-11). 

Pac-12

Like the ACC, the Pac-12 last week crowned its regular season champion as No. 4 Stanford (34-14, 20-7) won its series against Arizona. In terms of what it means for each team’s tournament hopes, the biggest matchup this weekend is UCLA (26-21-1, 11-14-1) at Arizona State (29-21, 14-12). The Bruins are in free-fall mode and have not won a conference series since the second week of April, while the Sun Devils are in a similar boat as they are currently on a six-game losing streak and have lost nine of their last 10. As recently as three weeks ago Arizona State was being discussed as a potential host, but the bottom has since fallen out. Pitching remains the biggest issue for the Sun Devils, but their high-powered offense has scored just six runs across the last four games. With an RPI of 54 and a 5-14 record against top-50 RPI teams, there is really nothing for Arizona State to fall back on and this weekend’s series is a must-win. UCLA is in even more of a dangerous spot, and it needs to somehow pull a rabbit out of its hat and pull off a sweep in Tempe. Also on the bubble is Southern California (32-20-1, 16-11). The Trojans are in arguably the best position out of this trio, and a road series win at Arizona (28-22, 10-17) would put them squarely on the right side of the bubble. With a record of 6-13-1, the Trojans have struggled on the road, but they will be as motivated as ever as they seek their first tournament appearance since 2015. While Oregon (31-19, 14-13) is safely in the Field of 64 right now, a series loss at Utah would have the Ducks very close to the bubble. Outside of Stanford, No. 17 Oregon State (36-16, 18-12) has the best chance to host but the Beavers’ conference schedule is done and this weekend they take on Western Carolina (21-29, 8-12). After its sweep of Oregon last week, No. 24 Washington (32-14, 16-10) likely locked up an at-large berth and will look to continue its excellent play this weekend against California (22-25, 10-17). 

Big 12

Up until somewhat recently, the Big 12 was perhaps the most difficult conference in the country for which to get a feel for as there was seemingly a different club each week emerging as the “team to beat.” However, over the last month, No. 7 West Virginia (39-13, 15-6) has clearly established itself as the top dog and can clinch its first-ever regular season conference title as a member of the Big 12 with just one win over Texas (35-18, 12-9). A series win for the Mountaineers puts them in prime position to earn a top-eight national seed. The Longhorns are safely in the tournament, but a top-10 series win would give their resume some serious strength heading into conference tournament week. If they were to somehow sweep West Virginia, the Longhorns could steal the regular season conference crown, but it would need Oklahoma (29-22, 10-11) to take two of three from No. 18 Oklahoma State (35-15, 13-8). Speaking of the Cowboys, hosting a regional in Stillwater is still a possibility but they likely need to take this weekend’s series against Oklahoma and have a strong showing in the conference tournament to do so. 

TCU (31-21, 11-10) and Kansas State (32-20, 12-9) square off in a significant series for both teams. Not only are their RPIs in a similar spot at 47 and 51, but only one game separates the two in the conference standings. Their resumes are similar, and this weekend will serve as a separator for whoever comes out on top. It is not necessarily a “win and you’re in” type of series, because one never knows what could happen on Selection Monday, but the victor this weekend will be in a significantly better spot than the loser. Oklahoma could also shore up its resume with a marquee series win and give itself some breathing room on the bubble, while Texas Tech (35-18, 10-11) cannot afford to lose its series with Kansas (23-28, 7-14). Currently a three-seed in Teddy Cahill’s latest projected Field of 64, a series loss would have the Red Raiders in a dangerous spot and likely sweating it out on Selection Monday.

Across the country

—No. 23 Maryland (35-18, 15-6) and Indiana (39-14, 15-6) are tied atop the Big Ten standings. The Terrapins this weekend travel to Penn State (24-23, 6-14) to take on a Nittany Lions team that has lost eight in a row, while Indiana travels to East Lansing to face Michigan State (30-19, 10-11). The Spartans have had a solid year, but they have been swept in each of their last two conference series. Indiana needs to make up a game on Maryland as it does not own the tiebreaker and it will be difficult as even if the Terps somehow drop a game to Penn State, the Hoosiers will need to sweep Michigan State to take home the regular season title. 

—Also tied atop their respective conference’s standings are No. 8 Coastal Carolina (34-17, 20-7) and Southern Mississippi (35-17, 20-7). Outside of Clemson, Southern Mississippi might be playing the best baseball of anyone in the country and as winners of 13 in a row, it owns the nation’s longest winning streak. Coastal Carolina has won its last four games which includes a sweep of South Alabama (23-28, 11-16) and a nice midweek win over North Carolina. The Chanticleers this weekend face last-place Marshall (16-34, 5-22), whereas the Golden Eagles are hosting a dangerous Louisiana (35-18, 17-10) team. Given that Coastal owns the tiebreaker thanks to its series win over Southern Mississippi and the quality of each team’s respective opponent, it seems highly likely that the Chanticleers will come out of this weekend as the regular season champion. 

—The first two automatic bids to the NCAA Tournament will be handed out this weekend as both the Ivy League and Patriot League will crown a conference champion. The Ivy League plays a four-team conference tournament, and this year the field includes Pennsylvania (29-14, 16-5), Harvard (19-22, 15-6), Princeton (22-21, 13-8) and Columbia (23-20, 11-10). Pennsylvania’s pitching depth separates itself from the other three teams and I foresee the Quakers punching their ticket to the tournament. The top two teams in the Patriot League face off in a best-of-three series as Army (36-16, 21-4) welcomes Bucknell (23-21-1, 14-11) to Doubleday Field. After losing the first game of its conference semifinals series last weekend, it feels as if Army got its scare out of the way and will secure its fifth straight tournament berth this weekend.