What To Expect: Julio Urias

Ever since he was 16, Julio Urias has been on the fast track. The Dodgers officially signed Urias from the Mexico City Red Devils on Aug. 17, 2012, five days after he turned 16 and became eligible to sign. The next year, the Dodgers assigned him to the low Class A Midwest League, and despite still being 16 and by far the youngest player at that level, he overmatched hitters.

So it’s no surprise that Urias will make his major league debut as a teenager, with the Dodgers bringing up the game’s best pitching prospect to start on Friday against the Mets. Urias, 19, has been stellar in Triple-A Oklahoma City this year, posting a 1.10 ERA with 44 strikeouts and eight walks in 41 innings.

SCOUTING REPORT

At 6-foot-2, 205 pounds, Urias has a smooth, effortless delivery with easy arm action. His ability to repeat his fluid mechanics is outstanding for his age, which helps him fill the strike zone, walking just under 2.0 batters per nine innings last year in Double-A and again this year in Triple-A. His feel for pitching is well beyond his years, mixing three pitches that earn plus to plus-plus grades.

Urias pitches off a fastball that sits at 90-95 mph and can reach 97 mph. That’s excellent velocity for a lefty and it plays up because hitters seem to struggle picking up the ball out of his hand due to the deception in his throwing motion. If there’s a split camp on Urias among scouts, it’s over which secondary pitch they prefer. Some think his best offspeed weapon is his changeup, which has excellent separation of his fastball and good movement. He sells his changeup well by maintaining his arm speed, making it a swing-and-miss pitch that earns plus to plus-plus grades.

Others prefer Urias’ breaking ball, another plus pitch that misses bats of both lefties and righties. It’s rare to see from a 19-year-old, but Urias has the touch and feel to manipulate the shape and speed of his breaking ball, giving it a true curveball look at times and getting wider with it to give it a hard three-quarters break at other moments. He also mixes in a short slider on occasion.

WHAT TO EXPECT

It’s hard to write about Urias without sounding hyperbolic, but there are few comparables for pitchers who have accomplished what he has at this age. He has the upside of a No. 1 starter and isn’t far from being able to reach that ceiling. Given his stuff and the way he has picked apart Triple-A hitters, Urias should be ready to step in and immediately pitch like a front-end starter.

The biggest caveat to that expectation is that the Dodgers are going to keep a strict eye on his workload. Urias missed time during the 2015 season to have cosmetic eye surgery, which took longer to recover from than the Dodgers expected, so he threw just 80 innings last year. The Dodgers won’t let Urias jump his innings total too much from last year—he’s at 41 innings now—and he has yet to throw more than six innings in a game this season, with 82 pitches on May 14 his season-high.

So expect Urias to have immediate success, even if he won’t be pitching too deep into games. And at some point, whether they shut him down altogether for the year, give him a midseason pause or put him in the bullpen temporarily, the Dodgers will likely do something to curb his overall innings volume for the season. But when he’s on the mound, Urias’ elite combination of stuff and feel for pitching should allow for a smooth transition to immediate major league success.