What To Expect: Joe Musgrove

With Doug Fister expected to miss tonight’s start because of the impending birth of his and his wife’s first child, the Astros have called up righthander Joe Musgrove to make a spot start. Musgrove, a supplemental first-round pick of the Blue Jays in 2011, was traded to the Astros in the Brandon Lyon/David Carpenter/J.A. Happ deal in 2012. He had a slow start to his career as he missed time with a sprained rotator cuff and sprained UCL (elbow ligament), but he hopped on the fast track with a brilliant 2015 season that saw him go 12-1, 1.88 between low Class A, high Class A and Double-A. He’s been nearly as good this year, going 7-4, 2.74 between Double-A and Triple-A with 87 strikeouts and 10 walks in 85 innings. Musgrove ranked No. 32 on the Baseball America Midseason Top 100 Prospects list and he ranked third on the Astros’ midseason Top 10.

SCOUTING REPORT

Musgrove sits 92-93 mph and will touch 95 on a pretty regular basis and grades out as an above-average pitch, although you can find scouts who grade it as a plus offering. The slider is every bit as good as the fastball and his changeup is an average pitch as well. The changeup will flash better potential that that, so there are scouts who think Musgrove may one day end up with three 55s on the scouting card, even if none of them is a wipeout offering.

But Musgrove’s greatest asset is his command and his control, which makes all three offerings play up. He is one of the few minor league pitchers who has present plus control (and above-average command). Musgrove has walked 1.09 batters per nine innings through his pro career and that microscopic walk rate has held up this year at Triple-A (many young pitchers see their walk rates rise when they pitch to the smaller strike zones of Triple-A).

WHAT TO EXPECT

Most pitchers making their big league debuts lack the control and command to be consistent at the big league level, Musgrove should hit his spots and avoid racking up high pitch counts. That doesn’t guarantee immediate success, but it gives him a much higher chance of immediate success than many rookie pitchers. Long term, scouts see Musgrove as one of the safest bets of all starting pitching prospects in the minors. He is expected to be a future No. 3 starter.