Weekend Preview: Conference Races Down To Wire
Weekend Preview this week looks at the conference races in the final weekend of the regular season.
| BIG TEN |
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| Team | Overall | Conference | GB | |
| 1. Minnesota | 31-16 | 15-5 | — | |
| 2. Indiana | 31-19 | 15-6 | ½ | |
| 3. Ohio State | 36-16 | 13-8 | 2½ | |
| 3. Nebraska | 34-18 | 13-8 | 2½ | |
| 5. Michigan 34-17 | 34-17 | 12-8 | 3 | |
| 6. Michigan State | 33-16 | 12-8 | 3½ | |
| 7. Maryland | 26-24 | 11-10 | 4½ | |
| 7. Penn State* | 27-25 | 11-10 | 4½ | |
| 9. Illinois | 26-22 | 10-11 | 5½ | |
| 9. Iowa | 22-24 | 10-11 | 5½ | |
| 11. Rutgers | 26-26 | 8-13 | 7 | |
| 12. Northwestern | 13-37 | 5-16 | 10½ | |
| 13. Purdue | 7-43 | 2-22 | 15 | |
| *Top eight eligible for conference tournament | ||||
Key Series: Ohio State at Minnesota: The Big Ten title race has come down to four teams—Indiana, Minnesota, Nebraska and Ohio State. All four play each other this weekend, with Indiana traveling to Nebraska and Ohio State visiting Minnesota. Both series promise to be exciting, but Ohio State-Minnesota has a traditional Big Ten baseball powerhouse feel to it. The two schools have combined to win the Big Ten or the conference tournament in 12 of the last 20 seasons, and are evenly matched in their more than 90 years of history against each other at 89-89-1.
Ohio State thrust itself into the heart of the Big Ten race with a sweep of Michigan last weekend. It was the Buckeyes’ third straight conference series victory, and during that stretch they are 11-2. Minnesota has lost only one conference series this year—a home series against Indiana two weeks ago. The Golden Gophers two losses against the Hoosiers represent half of their losses at Siebert Field this season.
This weekend’s series will pit Minnesota’s strength in the batter’s box against Ohio State’s strength on the mound. The Golden Gophers are hitting .329/.393/.477 as a team and lead the Big Ten in batting average and runs (340). The Buckeyes, meanwhile, rank second in the conference in ERA (2.98) and strikeouts (418).
Minnesota’s offense is led by righthander/DH Matt Fielder (.388/.430/.552, 13 SB) and catcher Austin Athmann (.366/.440/.652, 11 HR), its three- and four-hole hitters. Ohio State’s pitching staff is anchored by lefthander Tanner Tully (7-3, 2.26), who leads the Big Ten in ERA, and closer Yianni Pavlopoulos (3.24, 12 Sv).
It will be an emotional weekend for the Golden Gophers. Longtime pitching coach Todd Oakes has battled cancer since being diagnosed with acute myeloid leukemia in June 2012. This week he moved into hospice care.
Minnesota coach John Anderson told The Minneapolis Star Tribune that the Gophers want to honor Oakes with their play this weekend.
“We’re going to go out and put our hearts on the field, and I don’t think there’s anything that’s going to stop us from winning the Big Ten this weekend,” he said.
Conference Tournament Bubble: With the four teams at the top of the standings safely in the tournament and the two teams at the bottom eliminated, much of the conference has work to do this weekend. The top eight teams make the tournament (held next week in Omaha), and on opposite sides of the cut line, separated by one game, are the conference’s two super regional teams from a year ago, Maryland and Illinois. The Terrapins travel to sixth-place Michigan State, which is on the NCAA Tournament bubble, while Illinois hosts fifth-place Michigan, which is looking to sew up a regionals bid. The other series to watch sees Iowa, tied with Illinois for ninth place, travel to Penn State, tied with Maryland for seventh. The Nittany Lions are trying to reach the Big Ten Tournament for the first time since 2012, and a series win against the Hawkeyes would put them in the field.
Player to Watch: Logan Sowers, of, Indiana: Nebraska ranks third in the conference in scoring, so to keep pace Indiana will need its most powerful hitter to step up this weekend. Since the sophomore returned from injury on March 23, the Hoosiers are 22-10. Sowers is hitting .290/.407/.514 with eight home runs, including four in 21 Big Ten games.
— Teddy Cahill
| CONFERENCE USA |
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| Team | Overall | Conference | GB | |
| 1. Southern Miss | 36-15 | 20-7 | — | |
| 2. Rice | 32-17 | 19-7 | ½ | |
| 3. Marshall | 30-18 | 19-8 | 1 | |
| 4. Florida Atlantic | 34-15 | 18-8 | 1½ | |
| 5. Louisiana Tech | 34-16 | 16-11 | 4 | |
| 6. Old Dominion | 31-20 | 14-13 | 6 | |
| 7. Florida International | 24-27 | 12-15 | 8 | |
| 8. Charlotte* | 24-27 | 11-15 | 8½ | |
| 9.Western Kentucky | 19-33 | 10-17 | 10 | |
| 10. Alabama-Birmingham | 22-24 | 10-17 | 10 | |
| 11. Texas-San Antonio | 15-34 | 6-20 | 13½ | |
| 12. Middle Tennessee State | 20-33 | 5-22 | 15 | |
| *Top eight eligible for conference tournament | ||||
Key Series: Rice at Louisiana Tech. Both teams have plenty to gain, with the Owls looking to shore up their regional hosting credentials—and possibly claim the C-USA regular-season title if Southern Miss slips up—and Louisiana Tech trying to notch a marquee series win for its at-large resume.
The series features two of C-USA’s best pitching-and-defense teams, with the Bulldogs’ 3.58 team ERA nearly a full run better than last year’s 4.52. Most impressively, the Bulldogs have done much of it without senior ace Tyler Clancy, who aggravated an arm injury in early April and hasn’t pitched since. Coming to the rescue has been junior righthander Casey Sutton (6-1, 1.47). Just a year removed from Tommy John surgery, Sutton began the year in the bullpen before joining the rotation in Clancy’s stead. All he’s done since is throw two complete games, including a shutout of Middle Tennessee State, and post the ninth best qualified ERA in the nation. But Rice is Rice, and a rotation led by Jon Duplantier (7-4, 2.14) and Blake Fox (4-7, 2.70) doesn’t take a back seat to many. Rice and Louisiana Tech also feature two of C-USA’s premier closers in the Owls’ Glenn Otto (6-2, 1.87, 8 Sv) and the Bulldogs’ Adam Atkins (5-0, 0.76, 9 Sv).
The Bulldogs have already had a banner year. Their 34 overall wins are their most since 2011—they’ve had just five 30-win seasons since 2000—and their 16 conference wins matches a school record. But a series win against perennial C-USA behemoth Rice would take it to another level, as second-year coach Greg Goff tries to lead the Bulldogs to regionals for the first time since 1987.
Conference Tournament Bubble: The top eight teams make it to the C-USA tournament, which will be hosted by Southern Miss. The top six in the current standings have already clinched spots, with only Florida International and Charlotte still on the bubble. Ninth place Western Kentucky has a tough task this weekend with a road trip to Florida Atlantic, but the series to watch in this race will be UAB at Charlotte. The Blazers are a meager 3-19 on the road, and they’d have to sweep the 49ers to pass them, but they do control their destiny. FIU has to deal with first-place Southern Miss, but it needs only one win to assure itself of a place in the tournament as it holds the tiebreakers against both WKU and UAB.
Player To Watch: Kirk McCarty, lhp, Southern Miss. The Golden Eagles’ high-powered offense gets most of the attention, but they’ve shown they can win with pitching when they have to. McCarty (6-0, 2.95) has been a big reason why, as USM is a perfect 13-0 in games he’s started, including wins against both FAU and in the vital rubber game against Rice. Recently bumped up from Sundays to Saturdays (and Friday for this week’s Thursday-Saturday set), the sophomore lefty has the best swing-and-miss stuff in USM’s rotation with 77 strikeouts in 73 innings, making him a nice compliment to senior Cord Cockrell atop the rotation.
— Jim Shonerd
| ACC |
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| Team | Overall | Conference | GB | |
| 1. Miami | 39-9 | 19-6 | — | |
| 2. Louisville | 43-10 | 19-8 | 1 | |
| 3. Florida State | 33-17 | 15-8 | 3 | |
| 4. Virginia | 33-18 | 16-11 | 4 | |
| 5. North Carolina State | 32-17 | 13-12 | 6 | |
| 6. Clemson | 35-18 | 13-14 | 7 | |
| 7. Wake Forest | 32-20 | 13-14 | 7 | |
| 8. Georgia Tech | 34-18 | 12-14 | 7½ | |
| 9. North Carolina | 33-19 | 12-15 | 8 | |
| 10. Duke | 31-21 | 12-15 | 8 | |
| 11. Notre Dame | 27-24 | 11-14 | 8 | |
| 12. Boston College | 29-18 | 11-14 | 8 | |
| 13. Pittsburgh | 25-24 | 10-16 | 9½ | |
| 14. Virginia Tech | 19-33 | 6-21 | 14 | |
Key Series: Miami at Florida State. Miami can wrap up the overall ACC regular-season title by winning two of three in Tallahassee, regardless of what Louisville does against Wake Forest. Of course, the Hurricanes are all but locked in as a national seed in the NCAA tournament even if they drop the FSU series, but it’s a chance for them to twist the knife against their rival, as the Seminoles have lost three of their last four ACC series to jeopardize their own national seed chances.
Both teams are sporting remodeled rotations, with FSU elevating Drew Carlton (6-3, 4.24) to the Friday role and Miami dropping the struggling Thomas Woodrey (5-4, 5.15) to the bullpen in favor of freshman righthander Andrew Cabezas (2-1, 5.18), who made his first collegiate start last week against Pitt. More than anything else though, the Seminoles need to hope that returning to the friendly confines of Dick Howser Stadium—where they’re 26-7—reinvigorates their bats. The Seminoles have scored four runs or less in eight of their last 10 road games, losing seven of them, while they’ve scored at least six in nine straight at home.
Conference Tournament Bubble: Even with only one weekend to go, very little is definitive in the ACC race. We know that Miami has clinched the Coastal Division and will be the No. 1 or 2 seed in Durham, and last-place Virginia Tech is the only team mathematically eliminated from reaching the 10-team conference tournament. That’s what happens when the fourth through 12th place teams are separated by just three games in the loss column. Pittsburgh would need the most help, but it does go head-to-head against Duke, which holds the last tournament spot, this weekend. The Panthers would have to sweep the Blue Devils in order to pass them, but the good news is three of the other teams immediately ahead of them—North Carolina (at N.C. State), Notre Dame (vs. Clemson) and Boston College (at Georgia Tech)—will all be underdogs in their final series, so a lot can still change.
The other layer to this race is the one to stay in the top six, which allows you to skip the tournament’s play-in games pitting the 7-10 and 8-9 seeds. N.C. State and Clemson hold the cards to finish in the valuable fifth and sixth spots, needing only to take care of business against UNC and Notre Dame, respectively. Even if one of them falters, seventh-place Wake Forest has an uphill battle against red-hot Louisville.
Player To Watch: Ryan Williamson, lhp, N.C. State. Williamson has been one of the ACC’s best No. 3 starters, owning a 7-2, 2.86 record, something that’s given the Wolfpack a significant edge against most of the teams it’s faced. But he came out of his May 8 start against Clemson with tightness in his triceps, and he only pitched one ineffective inning last week against Louisville before coming out again. A full-strength Williamson figured to be one of NCSU’s biggest advantages against UNC, whose Sunday pitching has been an adventure, in a series the Wolfpack desperately needs to win to maintain its place as a regional host, but he’ll need to show he’s back to his usual self.
— Jim Shonerd
| SEC East |
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| Team | Overall | Conference | GB | |
| 1. Florida | 43-9 | 18-8 | — | |
| 2. South Carolina | 39-12 | 17-9 | 1 | |
| 3. Vanderbilt | 38-15 | 15-12 | 3½ | |
| 4. Kentucky | 30-23 | 13-14 | 5½ | |
| 5. Georgia | 26-27 | 10-17 | 8½ | |
| 6. Missouri* | 25-27 | 8-19 | 10½ | |
| 7. Tennessee | 27-26 | 7-20 | 11½ | |
| SEC WEST | ||||
| Team | Overall | Conference | GB | |
| 1. Texas A&M | 39-12 | 18-9 | — | |
| 1. Mississippi State | 37-14 | 18-9 | — | |
| 3. Mississippi | 39-14 | 17-10 | 1 | |
| 3. Louisiana State | 37-16 | 17-10 | 1 | |
| 5. Alabama | 31-21 | 15-12 | 3 | |
| 6. Auburn* | 23-30 | 8-19 | 10 | |
| 7 Arkansas | 26-26 | 7-20 | 11 | |
| *Top six eligible for conference tournament | ||||
Key Series: No. 6 Mississippi at No. 2 Texas A&M: Every weekend in the SEC provides a titanic clash or two—No. 8 Louisiana State and No. 1 Florida also play this weekend—but the series between the Rebels and Aggies could very well decide the SEC West and has national seed implications, as well. The SEC West is tightly packed, with Texas A&M and Mississippi State tied for first and both Mississippi and LSU a game below them. The Aggies and Rebels are also neck-and-neck in the RPI at No. 4 and No. 6, respectively.
Ole Miss is coming off a surprising midweek loss at Arkansas State but has series wins this year against the likes of Louisville, LSU and Kentucky. In a conference full of power hitters, outfielder J.B. Woodman has emerged as the SEC’s leading home run hitter, belting 13 and fueling Ole Miss’ offensive attack. The Rebels will turn to steady ace righthander Brady Bramlett (7-2, 2.91) in the opener, followed by lefthander David Parkinson (4-2, 2.55) and righthander Chad Smith (4-4, 4.18). The staff’s strength is its bullpen, led by closer Wyatt Short (2-1, 1.83, 10 Sv).
The Aggies also come into the series off of a midweek loss, to Sam Houston State. They boast a deep pitching staff and will start righthanders Brigham Hill (6-1, 2.18), Turner Larkins (2-0, 2.08) and Kyle Simonds (8-2, 2.88)—who threw a no-hitter two weekends ago against Vanderbilt. The Aggies are led offensively by Boomer White (.416/.492/.540) and Hunter Melton (team-leading 11 HRs, 60 RBIs).
Texas A&M’s status as a national seed appears fairly secure, but Ole Miss still has work to do. With five other SEC teams vying for national seeds, the Rebels could greatly bolster their case with a series win this weekend.
Conference Tournament Bubble: The top 12 teams make it to the SEC tournament in Hoover, Ala. At the moment, both Tennessee (7-20) and Arkansas (7-20) are on the outside looking in. The Volunteers have the easier path to the tournament, as they’ll play Georgia (10-17) this weekend. A sweep would even their conference records and potentially shake up the tournament picture. Arkansas will have a tougher go of it with a road trip to No. 3 Mississippi State. Both Missouri (8-19) and Auburn (8-19) are flirting with danger and could slip up out of the tournament with rough road series against Kentucky and Vanderbilt, respectively.
Player To Watch: Jared Poche’, lhp, Louisiana State. LSU will have its hands full against No. 1 Florida. Even at home, the Tigers are the underdogs against the Gators. To have a chance to win the series, LSU will likely need its veteran junior lefthander Jared Poche’ (6-4, 4.00) to deliver a strong start on Saturday. A clutch performer in the past, Poche’ has had an up-and-down year for LSU, yielding his top spot in the rotation to sophomore righthander Alex Lange (7-3, 3.76). Lange should give the Tigers a chance to win the opener, and with Riley Smith (1-0, 7.36) making just his second start of the season in Game Two, the series could very well fall on the shoulders of Poche’.
— Mike Lananna
| TOP 25 SERIES |
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| (1) Florida at (8) Louisiana State | ||||
| (6) Mississippi at (2) Texas A&M | ||||
| Arkansas at (3) Mississippi State | ||||
| (4) Miami at (14) Florida State | ||||
| West Virginia at (5) Texas Tech | ||||
| (7) Louisville at Wake Forest | ||||
| Virginia at (9) Virginia Tech | ||||
| (10) South Carolina at Alabama | ||||
| (11) Tulane at Houston | ||||
| Auburn at (12) Vanderbilt | ||||
| (13) Southern Mississippi at Florida International | ||||
| Kansas State at (15) Texas Christian | ||||
| (16) Rice at Louisiana Tech | ||||
| Western Kentucky at (17) Florida Atlantic | ||||
| (18) Cal State Fullerton | ||||
| North Carolina at (19) North Carolina State | ||||
| Kansas at (20) Oklahoma State | ||||
| Ohio State at (21) Minnesota | ||||
| Campbell at (22) Coastal Carolina | ||||
| (23) Clemson at Notre Dame | ||||
| (24) Bryant at Mount St. Mary’s | ||||
| (25) Long Beach State at UC Davis | ||||
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