Was The 2020 Rule 5 MLB Draft The Best Of The 21st Century?

Image credit: Garrett Whitlock (Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images)

In some form or fashion, the Rule 5 draft has been around for more than a century. It’s been around for long enough that it once was just called the baseball draft, because the now half-century-old MLB first-year player draft didn’t exist yet.

With so many different rules on who was available to be selected, it’s impossible to make any sweeping statements about the busiest or best Rule 5 draft overall. But is it reasonable to ask if the 2020 Rule 5 Draft was the best of the 21st century?

That group makes a strong case. So far, 11 of the 18 players selected in last December’s Rule 5 draft have stuck with their MLB teams. Nine of them have fulfilled the Rule 5 roster requirements—they were carried on an MLB roster without being optioned for a full season with at least half of that season on the active roster. Another two (Jose Soriano and Dedniel Nunez) spent the entire season on the injured list and still need to spend half a season on the active roster.

Only 34% of Rule 5 draft picks this century have fulfilled the Rule 5 roster requirements with their new teams. In the 2020 class, 50% of the picks have already done so, with a chance to see that number grow to 61% in the future. The 2001 (50%) and 2014 (71%) drafts are the only other Rule 5 classes this century to see half of the players or more stick with their new club.

The nine players who have fulfilled the roster requirements also makes this the third-largest class of players who stuck this century, topped only by 2014 (10) and 2002 (11). If Soriano and Nunez both do go on to meet the requirements, it will equal 2002’s mark.

But it’s not just the number of players who stuck around. This class has also been impactful.

This year righthander Garrett Whitlock (8-4, 1.96, 2.9 bWAR) went from being a Rule 5 pick to arguably the most valuable pitcher in the Red Sox bullpen. Akil Baddoo (.259/.330/.436, 2.1 bWAR) immediately became a key part of the Tigers outfield. Tyler Wells (.9 bWAR), Jordan Sheffield (.6 bWAR), Trevor Stephan (.5 bWAR) and Zach Pop (.1 bWAR) all were productive relievers for their new clubs as well.

If you include the MiLB phase of the Rule 5 draft, this year’s class looks even better. The D-backs selected LHP Tyler Gilbert, who went on to earn 1.1 bWAR by going 2-2, 3.15 in 40 innings of work.

That’s six players who posted a positive WAR. That’s one off of the 21st century record of seven set in 2002. The only other year with six players with positive WAR was 2006. This year’s class also matched 2006 as the only 21st century Rule 5 draft to have two players who produced 2.0 bWAR or better in their initial season with their new team.

For cumulative WAR in their initial Rule 5 season, this current class posted a cumulative 3.0 bWAR (among players who weren’t offered back). That ranks sixth best this century.

The 2006 Rule 5 Draft still holds the crown as the best Rule 5 draft of this century, and it will be hard for the further efforts of the 2020 class to eclipse it. Eight players stuck with their new team that year. Joakim Soria, Josh Hamilton, Jesus Flores, Jared Burton, Kevin Cameron and Josh Phelps all had productive seasons in the majors. On top of that Soria, Hamilton and Burton went on to have significant additional success.

Even if Baddoo and Whitlock excel going forward, it will be hard to top the efforts of Soria (14 MLB seasons, two all-star appearances and 221 saves in a career that is still going) or Hamilton (five all-star appearances and the 2010 American League MVP award).

But this year’s class does have a chance to be the second best of the century, and it is clearly better than all but two other classes.

In 2014, 10 players stuck with Odubel Herrera, Mark Canha, Delino DeShields and Sean Gilmartin all providing significant help to their new clubs.

The 2002 Rule 5 Draft was the year of the relief pitcher. Eleven different players fulfilled the Rule 5 roster requirements with Aquilino Lopez, Javier Lopez, Luis Ayala, Michael Neu, Chris Spurling, Matt Ford and D.J. Carrasco all providing positive WAR for their new teams. Carrasco, Aquilino Lopez and Javier Lopez all went on to have successful careers as well.

The eligibility rules for the Rule 5 draft changed in 2006, with all players having to wait an extra year until they were eligible for the Rule 5 draft. It appears that MLB teams needed a year to adjust to that rules tweak—the 2006 draft should have been thinner, but instead it was the best Rule 5 class of the 21st century. That bright spot soon faded away, as the 2009-2013 drafts were relatively barren.

The 2020 Rule 5 class also came after an unusual year. Minor league players didn’t play in official games in 2020, which meant that protection decisions were based on less information than normal. Change seems to lead to significant Rule 5 classes, although there is no way to prove whether that is coincidental or not.

Pick	New Team	Old Team	Player	2021 bWAR
1	Pirates	Angels	#Jose Soriano, RHP
2	Rangers	Dodgers	Brett de Geus, RHP	-1.7
3	Tigers	Twins	Akil Baddoo, OF	2.1
4	Red Sox	Yankees	Garrett Whitlock, RHP	2.9
5	Orioles	Reds	*Mac Sceroler, RHP
6	Marlins	Orioles	Zach Pop, RHP	.1
7	Rockies	Dodgers	Jordan Sheffield, RHP	.6
8	Angels	Astros	*Jose Alberto Rivera, RHP
9	Pirates	Indians	Luis Oviedo, RHP	-0.9

10	Mariners	Tigers	*Will Vest, RHP
11	Reds	Yankees	*Kyle Holder, SS
12	Giants	Mets	#Dedniel Nunez, RHP
13	Marlins	Rays	Paul Campbell, RHP	-1.0
14	Cubs	Orioles	*Gray Fenter, RHP
15	Indians	Yankees	Trevor Stephan, RHP	0.5
16	Athletics	Indians	*Ka’ai Tom, OF
17	Orioles	Twins	Tyler Wells , RHP	0.9
18	Athletics	Blue Jays	*Dany Jimenez, RHP

* Offered back to original team

# On injured list, Rule 5 roster restrictions still apply

The minor league phase of the Rule 5 draft was also more useful than normal. Of the 56 players selected, only two did not play for their new organizations in 2021.

Players picked in the MiLB phase do not have any roster restrictions, but normally a number of them are released during spring training in the roster crunch that usually happens when teams break camp.

That didn’t happen this year. Partly that may be because teams did a good job of scouting MiLB Rule 5 picks, but it also likely had to do with the shortage of healthy players many organizations faced in May and June. In addition to a strong crop of MiLB Rule 5 picks, MLB teams were signing record numbers of independent and partner league players as well.

The MiLB Rule 5 picks were not just roster filler. Five different MiLB Rule 5 picks made it to the majors this year, led by Gilbert. Shea Spitzbarth, Kaleb Ort, Seth Martinez and Yohel Pozo also reached the big leagues. Others like Brendon Davis , Reggie McClain and Drew Jackson had solid seasons at Triple-A.

Normally, if one or two players from an MiLB Rule 5 class make it to the majors the next year, that’s an excellent return. MLB veteran Corban Joseph was the only 2018 MiLB rule 5 pick to play in the majors the next season. No one from the 2019 MiLB Rule 5 Draft has played in the majors.

The only two who didn’t play for their new organizations were the No. 2 (Matt Wivinis) and No. 3 (Yunior Perez) picks in the minor league phase of the draft.

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