Under Current CBA, Almost Every Top 10-Round Pick Signs
The current collective bargaining agreement has taken the drama out of draft signings.
The old days were the Wild West, where deadlines were fluid and negotiations stretched for months. Players used to be able to sign at any point until they set foot in a college classroom. There was no fixed deadline, so some top picks would skip a few classes or their entire fall semester to continue negotiating. Add in draft-and-follows—which allowed junior college players to sign until just days before the next draft—and the nature of a draft class was often up in the air for months after the draft ended.
Now, the draft signing deadline is a simple fixed date–everyone who is signing must sign by July 15.
| Year | Unsigned Players* | Pct |
| 2015 | 6 | 1.9% |
| 2014 | 6 | 1.9% |
| 2013 | 8 | 2.5% |
| 2012 | 8 | 2.4% |
| *Top 10 rounds | ||
But even more simply, when a player is picked in the top 10 rounds, he almost always signs.
There assuredly will be a few top 10-round players who don’t sign this year, usually because the post-draft physical uncovers some ailment that leads the team to offer a bonus that is less than what was floated before the pick was turned in, but those unsigned players have become extremely rare. With the current system slashing a team’s bonus pool for unsigned top 10-round picks, nailing down signability before a player is picked has become a vital part of a scout’s job.
The difference is stark. In 2011, the last year of the old format, 28 top 10-round picks did not sign (including three first-rounders). In the four drafts since, just 28 top 10-round picks have gone unsigned. In other words, 98 percent of all top 10-round picks have signed. More than half of the league has signed every top 10 pick they have selected in the previous four drafts.
Before the current CBA, the record for unsigned picks in a draft was 14 in 2004. Last year only six top 10-round picks did not sign, setting a new draft record.
That focus on signability doesn’t stop at the end of the 10th round, even if the penalties for unsigned picks do. In the first year of the new CBA, 24 players picked in rounds 11-15 did not sign. Since then, teams have started to lock up almost all of their 11th-15th round picks as well.
Last year only 10 of the 150 players picked in rounds 11-15th did not sign, down slightly from the 11 who did not sign in 2014 and the 13 who did not sign in 2013.
The signability focus is especially noticeable in the 11th and 12th rounds. In the past three seasons, 173 of the 180 players (96.1 percent) picked in those rounds have agreed to terms.
The Rockies, Brewers and Yankees have signed every player they have picked in the top 15 rounds of each of the past four drafts. The Diamondbacks and Angels aren’t far behind–each have had one unsigned 11th-15th rounder over the past four drafts. The Tigers and Rays have each had a lone unsigned top 10 rounder over that span.
With nine unsigned top 15-round picks over the past four drafts—including three top-10 rounds picks—the Blue Jays are the only team to have failed to sign more than six picks in the top 15 rounds since 2012.
| UNSIGNED PICKS | |||
| A look at how many picks in the top 10 and the 11th-15th rounds teams have failed to sign from the 2012-2015 drafts | |||
| Team | TOP 10s | 11-15 | OVERALL |
| COL | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| NYY | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| ARI | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| LAA | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| MIL | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| SDP | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| DET | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| TBR | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| ATL | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| CHC | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| CWS | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| CIN | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| KCR | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| SFG | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| MIA | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| BOS | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| LAD | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| NYM | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| PIT | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| SEA | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| STL | 0 | 4 | 4 |
| TEX | 0 | 4 | 4 |
| HOU | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| WAS | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| CLE | 1 | 4 | 5 |
| OAK | 1 | 4 | 5 |
| MIN | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| PHI | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| BAL | 2 | 4 | 6 |
| TOR | 3 | 6 | 9 |
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