Top 25 Chat (May 23)

Teddy Cahill: My apologies for the delay, I am coming to you live from the airport on my way to the SEC Tournament. Let’s get to your college baseball questions.

Josh (Olive Branch,MS): Now that Southern Miss did not clinch the regular season title, what would they need to do in the tournament to get a hosting spot?
Teddy Cahill: Yes, with Southern Miss getting swept by Florida International this weekend and falling to third in the CUSA standings, any hosting chances now rest on the tournament. They may have actually done irreparable harm to their case, though it is possible some of their competition will slip up this week in their own conference tournaments.

Chris (Lubbock): How many wins does Texas Tech need to secure a national seed or are we there already?
Teddy Cahill: Texas Tech should be secure regardless of what happens in Oklahoma City. An RPI of 12 and a Big 12 title (and winning the conference big) ought to be enough for the Red Raiders.

Josh (Starkville): Is Mississippi state a national seed with a rpi of 11? And what if they just go 1-1 in the SEC tournament. I'm sure their rpi will drop even more then. It's crazy that MSST has 9 wins against the teams in the rpi to 10 now. And could not be a national seed because of terrible losses in the non conference. I believe lsu or Vanderbilt could jump them in the national seed discussion with a strong showing in Hoover because of their rpi.
Teddy Cahill: Mississippi State is pretty secure as a national seed at this point, having won the SEC. An RPI of 11 is fine, there’s enough other stuff on their resume to give them a national seed. It looks more like the SEC will land four of the eight national seeds, and LSU and Vanderbilt are still in the mix (and probably Ole Miss as well). But it’s going to take a lot to knock the Bulldogs out. South Carolina is the most vulnerable of the top four SEC teams. Nothing is set yet, of course. We talked about this some on the podcast today. If, say, LSU beat South Carolina in the SEC tournament championship game, the committee would have a tough call. But the Bulldogs don’t have much to worry about, I don’t think.

Kerry (Columbus): what does Ohio State have to do in Big Ten tournament to get a regional bid?
Teddy Cahill: Short of reaching the championship game, I’m not sure Ohio State can truly feel like it is safely off the bubble. Its at 57 in the RPI now and is closing strong, and a few wins would really improve its resume, but it will be hard to really get clear of the bubble. The good news for the Buckeyes is that it is in the side of the bracket with Michigan and Minnesota, the two teams it has beaten the last two weeks. They’re also the Buckeyes’ Big Ten bubble competition. So winning those games would be big for their regional hopes.

Taylor (Houston): So did Rice kill any slight chance they had for a regional host? Any chance if they run through the CUSA tourney undefeated they climb back into a host?
Teddy Cahill: Much like Southern Miss, Rice probably did irreparable harm to its hosting chances by getting swept last weekend. Win the CUSA Tournament and it might be different, but its RPI is down to 32 and it finished in fourth place in the league. The Owls definitely put themselves in a tough spot going into this week.

earl (new orleans): How exciting for us in our state to have La tech , southeastern, tulane, lsu and ull in the postseason this year, even though the lions are scuffling rite now. With the golden eagles struggling n rice getting swept seams like tulane should be a lock to host ? What does lsu have to do in the sec tournament to get a top 8 seed. Thx so much
Teddy Cahill: This is definitely a great year for college baseball in Louisiana – which I wrote about way back in March (https://www.baseballamerica.com/college/on-campus-louisiana-a-baseball-hotbed/#sJ1Y5qWTsobIwIo8.97). Tulane looks good for a host coming off this weekend, as does Louisiana-Lafayette, which would give the state three hots (along with LSU). Tulane’s RPI is a little tenuous at 27, but as long as the Green Wave don’t bomb out in Clearwater, they should be fine. Mentioned it earlier, but for any of those SEC teams outside the top four right now to get a national seed, they’re going to at least have to get to the championship game and maybe win the whole thing. But, as I’ve noted before, the last four national champions weren’t national seeds. While I understand why fans are focused on those top eight spots, they are not the be-all, end-all.

Ben (Bloomington, IL): Is Cody Sedlock someone you expect to see picked on the first day of the draft? Does he have a higher floor than his former teammate Tyler Jay?
Teddy Cahill: Yes, I would expect Cody Sedlock to go on the draft’s first day. He’s had a very good year as Illinois’ ace to build on a solid summer on the Cape. I would not say he has a higher floor than Tyler Jay. The Twins are trying Jay as a starter, and that’s worked pretty well so far, as he’s pitching well in the Florida State League. But he’s also got experience closing and is lefthanded. So you can feel pretty good about him being, at the least, an impactful big league reliever. Sedlock’s stuff would probably play up in the bullpen as well, but isn’t lefthanded. He’s a good prospect, but I’d say Jay has a higher floor and ceiling.

Kyle Long (Cincinnati): Hi Teddy, We might have 3 first round draft picks in 3 years here in Cincinnati. Kyle Schwarber, Andrew Benentendi and now maybe TJ Zeuch. Any chance we can keep the last in Ohio for once? Maybe Cleveland?
Teddy Cahill: It’s been a rather impressive run for Cincinnati prep products. While this is setting me up well to gush about Ohio high school baseball, I will pass on the opportunity in the interest of time. I don’t know that he ends up with either Ohio team, but Zeuch has been rising on draft boards since he returned from injury. He could well be in play when the Indians pick at 14, but the Indians haven’t taken a college pitcher with their top pick since taking Drew Pomeranz fifth overall in 2010.

Jeff (San Antonio): Who has been the biggest "Dark Horse" this season?
Teddy Cahill: To this point, it has been Texas Tech. While we didn’t rank them in our Preseason Top 25, several Big 12 coaches felt like the Red Raiders would make a run and that’s just what they did.

Clyle (Monterey Park, CA): How do you evaluate CSULB's SS Garrett Hampson & how will he do in the draft?
Teddy Cahill: Hampson has been the key for Long Beach’s resurgence this season. He makes the Dirtbags go offensively and defensively and is a huge reason they’re in a position to win their first Big West title since 2008 if they can beat Fullerton this weekend. As for the Draft, Hampson probably goes on Day 2. He’s solid, but not spectacular. He didn’t really stand out with Team USA last summer and may end up as a utility player in the big leagues. But there aren’t many college shortstops to pick from this year, so Hampson could end up going better than expected if a team is convicted about him.

Josh (Beaumont): is this the year Florida State isn't a host and ends up being a number 2 seed?
Teddy Cahill: It is possible. The ACC has three teams that can feel safe about hosting right now in Miami, Louisville and Virginia. After that, NC State, Florida State and Clemson are all in the mix. That makes Wednesday’s game between NC State and Florida State critical for both teams. Clemson is on the other half of the bracket and has a tough draw with both Louisville and Virginia. But if they can win a couple games, the Tigers will position themselves well.

Bryan (Louisiana): Does Southeastern Louisiana receive an at-large despite fading late in the SLC regular season? Seems to me if SHSU wins the auto bid, SLU will still get in. Don't see three bids from the SLC though.
Teddy Cahill: Southeastern Louisiana has closed very poorly, losing a series to New Orleans and then getting swept by Central Arkansas. The Lions probably can’t afford to go two-and-out in the tournament. The RPI and top 100 record are ok, but they’re probably on the bubble and vulnerable to bid stealing. Three from the Southland, which ranks 12th in RPI, is unlikely, as you said. So the Lions have some work to do this week.

Teddy Cahill: Thank you all for the questions. I have to run so I can get down to Hoover, but if I didn’t get to your question, leave it in the comments and I’ll answer it there.