Top 25 Chat (May 16)

Teddy Cahill: Sorry I’m late – May is a ridiculous month. So let’s get to your questions.

Josh (Olive Branch,MS): Do you think Southern Miss would still have the potential to host a regional if they were to win the regular season and not win the conference championship? If not where do you think they would go for a regional?
Teddy Cahill: Yes, as I’ve said for a while now, if Southern Miss wins the CUSA regular season title, I expect it will host. With an RPI of 16 and a half-game lead on Rice, I think the Golden Eagles are in excellent position if they can take care of business this weekend.

Bill (Atlanta): How good would a team's RPI need to be to get in the NCAA if they miss their conference tournament? Thinking of GT, which probably makes the ACC, but could fall short with a bad weekend.
Teddy Cahill: This is potentially going to be very interesting in the ACC, where the RPIs of several teams on the conference tournament bubble are very high. In addition to Georgia Tech, you’ve got Clemson at 11, North Carolina at 15, Duke at 27 and Wake Forest at 30. All are under .500 in the league. I’m not sure what the committee is going to do with that. If those teams can make the ACC Tournament they should be in solid shape for at-large bids, but one of them probably misses. I really don’t know what will happen. But I do know that if a team gets a regional bid without making a 10-team conference tournament, there will be some grumbling.

Commodore Tiger (Atlanta, GA): Given the lack of RPI Top 25 teams in the West this year, do you see the selection committee throwing a few regionals to western teams to continue their belief in NCAA tournament geographic equality?
Teddy Cahill: You’re going to see one or two hosts out West. RPI is just one of the metrics they look at. So Fullerton, if it wraps up the Big West, will host. And either Arizona or Arizona State could end up as a host if they can finish in the top two of the Pac-12.

KD (Dallas, TX): With Texas Tech clinching the Big 12 title without playing a game this past weekend, are they a hard lock for a National Seed assuming they win the series against suddently hot WVU?
Teddy Cahill: Yes. But I would have said the same even if Oklahoma State and TCU hadn’t lost series this weekend to allow Texas Tech to clinch. If the Red Raiders just finish the job they’re in great shape.

Dan (Connecticut): Assuming Bryant finishes with 40+ wins, but does not win the conference tournament, do you see them receiving an At Large bid?
Teddy Cahill: We talked about this at some length on the podcast (which just went online). The short answer is that it’s hard to say Bryant has locked up a bid at this point. If it loses in the NEC Tournament, it will likely have another one or two losses to 200+ RPI teams. That is not going to do it any favors. Now, what I would hope the committee would look at, is that Bryant has already won 24 games away from campus – including 19 true road wins – and only has one losing weekend all season (at Maryland). As coach Steve Owens told me last night (and you can read in Off the Bat), they’ve done all they can do. College baseball needs a team like that to have already locked up a bid.

Tucker (Raleigh): Should I be concerned about NC State being swept on the road this weekend or was that just Louisville being Louisville?
Teddy Cahill: I suppose it depends in what way you mean being worried about North Carolina State. Its status as a host is a little more tenuous following that sweep with Clemson finishing strong. But in terms of how good the Wolfpack actually are, I don’t think Louisville exposed any new flaws. The Cardinals are a really good team that’s playing well right now and is nearly impossible to beat at home. As long as NC State is able to mentally bounce back from that, they’ll be fine.

Chris B (New Orleans, LA): How are things shaping up for a Tulane hosted regional? Given the series against Houston and the AAC tourney, what do you think the Wave need to do to host?
Teddy Cahill: Win the regular season title this weekend for starters. A tournament title would be useful as well. But I don’t really think Tulane controls its own destiny. Its RPI (31) is behind Southern Miss (16), Coastal Carolina (17), Florida Atlantic (22) and Rice (26). Two of those teams will also have conference championships, and Louisiana-Lafayette (20) could as well. So it’s going to be hard for Tulane to move ahead of those teams – even though it does have two midweek wins against Southern Miss. Now if the Pac-12 doesn’t get a host or the Big 12 doesn’t land a second host, things look better for Tulane. But the Green Wave just need to win as many games as they can and see how the chips fall.

Nate (Florida): I noticed on your top-25 rankings, you have Miami listed with 40 wins. 2 of those wins are against D-2 schools (St. Thomas & Nova Southeastern). Obviously those wins don't factor into the Hurricanes' RPI, but will the NCAA leave those wins in their win total when comparing teams for seeding purposes? And you have to wonder what difference playing two D-2 schools vs two very bad D-1 schools has on a team's RPI. Obviously this year it won't matter (Miami will still get a national seed) but I would think with traditional bubble teams that could be a factor down the stretch...so maybe it would be beneficial for a team to schedule a D-2 game or two rather than the Mississippi Valley States of the world.
Teddy Cahill: This is a very interesting question and I consulted with Jim Shonerd, our resident RPI expert. Without running the numbers, our guess is that is better for your RPI. But it does mean you have fewer chances to get points. My feeling is that it won’t move your RPI enough to get a team off the bubble. But it is an interesting thing to consider. It definitely won’t matter for the Hurricanes, and Miami added that Nova Southeastern game after it was snowed out twice at Notre Dame, so it’s not like they set out to have two DII games this season.

Jeff (NC): I'd love to hear head-to-head comparison of Duke vs. Minnesota. Besides Minnesota's 2 wins at Michigan, they really don't have much. How do they get in at #21 when Duke took a series from #7 FSU in addition to 3 others series wins against ranked teams?
Teddy Cahill: It starts with Minnesota leading the Big Ten, while Duke is 10th in the ACC. Yes, the ACC is a better league than the Big Ten, but ranking the 10th place team in a conference is not something we like to do. Series wins against Florida State and Clemson are good, but we actually talked more about Wake Forest – which beat Duke head-to-head. In the end, obviously, neither made the rankings.

TJ (Maryland): Does Virginia have enough pitching to make a run? The offense is there, and the young bats seem to be improving a bit. Defense is fine. Really comes down to the pitching. A month ago, I would've said no. That said, the Bettinger/Doyle swap has worked better than I thought. Doyle looks solid in the pen, where his 2 pitches play up, and Bettinger's been capable as a starter. Rough start for Haseley, but overall, he's been solid. Still feels like UVA is one arm short, but a lot more optimistic than I was a month ago.
Teddy Cahill: Readers that have been following all season know that I’ve been rather bullish on Virginia. So I’m not about to get off that train now. Yes, I think this team can make a run. I didn’t have them in my Eight for Omaha this morning in Off the Bat, but I’ve been trying for two weeks to figure out how to get the Cavs back in there. I would not be surprised one bit if Virginia gets back to the CWS this year. The pitching has been the concern from the start, but Brian O’Connor and Karl Kuhn have pushed the right buttons and have the staff in a good position with the tournament approaching. I trust them to continue to do so.

Teddy Cahill: Thanks for all your questions today. Sorry again that I got started late. So if I missed your question, leave it in the comments below and I’ll get to it there. It’ll be an exciting final couple weeks leading up to Selection Monday.