Top 25 Chat (May 15)

Teddy Cahill: Welcome to this week’s college baseball chat. Hard to believe we’re just two weeks away from Selection Monday. Plenty to talk about, so let’s get to the questions.

Greg (ATL): What would it take for Florida NOT to be a national seed?
Teddy Cahill: I guess losing the series this weekend and going winless in Hoover might do it, especially if LSU shores up its case in Starkville this weekend. But Florida is looking really good for another national seed right now.

Harry (Florida): Any shot of regional for UCF if they win the upcoming series from the Bulls and take the AAC tourney?
Teddy Cahill: Maybe? I don’t know, there’s a lot to that hypothetical. Central Florida would still probably be on the hosting bubble at that point, so it would depend on what happens around them.

jb (Georgia): Tough weekend for Clemson and SC. I think this weekend may have sealed the deal for SC's postseason hopes and Clemson's national seed hopes barring a deep run in their conference tournaments. Whhat do you think?
Teddy Cahill: I don’t think South Carolina’s postseason hopes are dead, but I do think Clemson’s national seed hopes are pretty well dashed. If the Gamecocks can win this series against Georgia – no easy feat, I know. South Carolina has lost seven straight series and UGA just beat Kentucky and Mississippi State – they would have 14 SEC wins and a solid RPI. Combine that with not going winless in Hoover and that might just be enough. But there is absolutely no margin for error any more.

Matthew (Athens,GA): Will Clemson get a regional if they lose this weekend and doing nothing in acc tournament?
Teddy Cahill: Maybe? Clemson would still have the RPI to host, but it would be very much trending in the wrong direction and have fallen to fifth in the ACC at that point. That’s putting it on the bubble and, at that point, it matters what else has happened in the final two weeks. It would like to avoid being in that kind of position, to be sure.

Bulldog Fan (Vicksburg,MS): With a win over Troy and 2 out of 3 vs LSU can MSU get the RPI back up enough to host? Or will they need a few more wins in sec tournament? Most years a Western division title and top 4 overall sec finish is a hosting resume. Thanks
Teddy Cahill: Winning the series this weekend is enough. 19 SEC wins and a division title gets you a host. It’s not like the RPI is in bad shape now, and if you add two wins against a top-15 RPI team, the Bulldogs would be fine.

John (Oklahoma): Looking at Oklahoma, how high are the chance of them hosting a regional and making it deep into the postseason with them playing their best baseball right now ?
Teddy Cahill: I very much like Oklahoma’s chances of hosting. The Sooners need to take care of business this weekend in Bedlam, but win that series and they’ll host. When Oklahoma is healthy, it’s proven to be capable of beating some really, really good teams, particularly at home. The Sooners have what it takes to make a run.

Matt (Beaverton(Really. That's a town)): Oregon State swept the Ducks on the road, locked up the Pac 12, and continued to dominate while doing it. Have they locked up the #1 over all seed pending a faceplant the next two weekends?
Teddy Cahill: I don’t think so. Oregon State won’t play another top 100 RPI team the rest of the way. Meanwhile, Louisville gets Florida State and then the ACC Tournament, where it will likely get some more marquee opponents. I think the resumes are close enough that if Louisville continues to steamroll the rest of the ACC that it will be a real discussion for the No. 1 national seed. But that requires the Cardinals to play better in a conference tournament than they have in recent seasons.

Harry (USA): Do you think the committee would consider tabbing St Johns as a host if they win the big east regular season this weekend and then win the big east tourney? If not a chance to host are they a lock to at least be a 2 seed?
Teddy Cahill: I don’t see it. The committee showed no interest last year in geographic diversity for the sake of geographic diversity, so I wouldn’t expect that to change this year. And St. John’s metrics aren’t going to be helped this week by playing four games against RPI 200+ teams. I would definitely expect them to be a two-seed, however. And a dangerous one, at that.

Scott (Pennsylvania): Just Curious, with 5 straight ACC series wins and a very good RPI, Is Virginia looking like a near lock to host a Regional?
Teddy Cahill: The Cavs are a lock.

DudeBroMan (Tijuana): Fullerton's rpi isn't very good. Is the number legit or are they the suffering from a baises system? ps #beatTheBeach
Teddy Cahill: Obviously we still like Fullerton a lot, that’s why the Titans are No. 13 in the Top 25. While it can be difficult to build robust RPIs out west, that’s not the Big West’s issue this year. After Beach and Fullerton, only Hawaii has a winning record. That’s not the sign of a strong conference. And that’s dragging down both the Dirtbags’ and Titans’ RPI.

Eric Simmons (Thornton, CO): Can Auburn make the Regionals even after a 7 game losing streak? They are slumping at the wrong time!
Teddy Cahill: If Auburn wins once this weekend it will have 15 SEC wins and an reasonable RPI, probably somewhere in the 40s. That’ll get it done. It would be much easier if Auburn can find a way to win the series, but there’s still a lot to like about its overall body of work.

Jeff (LA): What does USM need to do to get a national seed and host?
Teddy Cahill: I don’t think it can get a national seed, but any hope for that would involve winning out. As for hosting, Southern Miss probably has that pretty well locked up. If the Eagles just take care of business this weekend and avoid an 0-2 showing on their home field in the conference tournament, they’ll likely be hosting.

Eric Simmons (Thornton, CO): Is Oregon done after getting swept by Oregon State at home? I think they are! They are wasting a great year from David Peterson!
Teddy Cahill: If the Ducks won out, that might put them in the field. But since they’ve lost 13 of their last 16, that kind of turnaround seems highly unlikely.

Greg (Topeka, KS): I know this isn't a top 25 question, but what does KU need to do the rest of the way to make the field of 64? Thanks.
Teddy Cahill: I actually really like Kansas’ chances. But I think it has to win a game this weekend in Lubbock, which isn’t easy to do. If the Jayhawks can do that, then they’re 12-12 in the top-ranked conference. If they can go to Oklahoma City and win a game or two to inch that RPI a little further up, I think that might do it.

josh (lumberton): Here we go, what does FSU have to do to make the regional's this year? I've been saying if they get swept this weekend they are done...they could be left out like UNC last year. What do you think?
Teddy Cahill: I think Florida State has to win a game this weekend. Even that would leave them at 13-16 in the ACC, which is dangerous, but they can’t be 12-17. A win this weekend and then a few in the ACC Tournament might be enough. But the Seminoles have left themselves with a lot of work to do in Louisville the next two weeks.

Moss Reumann (Bronx NY): Does Texas Tech sweep Kansas and win the Big 12 for a second straight year?
Teddy Cahill: I like this Kansas team a bit. I think the Jayhawks find a way to win a game in Lubbock. They’ve been really tough in the Big 12 this season. It’ll be a fun series for sure.

Brandon (Texas): What are your thoughts on Texas Tech making a deep run this year?
Teddy Cahill: I’ve had them as an Eight for Omaha team for months now, so I’m on board. When the Red Raiders are healthy, there aren’t many holes in that team. Strong pitching, a deep lineup and plenty of experience.

SO MISS FAN (Mississippi): Conference USA tournament is not in Hattiesburg, MS. What then do they need to do in tournament play?
Teddy Cahill: Totally forgot they’re in Biloxi this year. That would make an 0-2 maybe a little more palatable, but not significantly so. But I don’t think they need to go on a deep run in the CUSA Tournament if they just take care of business this week.

Jeramey (Locust Grove): I feel, Georgia Tech doesn't have the ace of the staff that they have had in the past; i.e. Farmer, Pope, Bradley etc, why is Tech not getting the ace anymore, and can we expect a turnaround soon out of Tech, or do they continue to struggle?
Teddy Cahill: That ace is supposed to be there – Georgia Tech got Jonathan Hughes, an unsigned second rounder in last year’s recruiting class. But he’s had injury trouble for the last two years. Tristin English also has that kind of potential on the mound, but he hasn’t thrown an inning in two years because of injuries of his own. Injuries have been a significant issue for Georgia Tech in recent years. Finding a way to stay healthy throughout the spring is critical for the Yellow Jackets.

David (Salem, OR): What do you think are the implications of Drew Rasmussen's return to the OSU rotation, especially for the post season?
Teddy Cahill: No matter whether Rasmussen stays in the rotation or if he comes out of the bullpen, it’s significant for the Beavers. Finding out exactly what he and Bryce Fehmel can do is probably Oregon State’s biggest question to answer in the next two weeks. If it can roll out vintage Rasmussen along with Luke Heimlich and Jake Thompson, that’s a fantastic rotation that matches up well with anyone in the country.

Eric Simmons (Thornton, CO): Who do you think will be National Seeds? I say Oregon State, North Carolina, Louisville, Texas Tech, TCU, Florida, Kentucky, and LSU!
Teddy Cahill: The last five national champions have not been national seeds. I understand the significance of it, but I think people fixate on them too much.

Jason (West Coast): Is it looking more and more like that only three pac 12 teams will be making regionals this year?
Teddy Cahill: I think a fourth finds its way in – probably between UCLA and Utah. It’s possible Washington gets up off the mat, but it has to win this weekend at Stanford, which is not a great position to be in. The winner of this weekend’s UCLA-Utah series should have a decent RPI and will be looking at somewhere between 15-18 Pac-12 wins (assuming they also take care of business on the final weekend). That’s probably good enough. But the margin for error is slim for all three of those teams.

Murray (Carlsbad CA): John Manuel says that he feels like OSU and Louisville are way ahead of the rest of the top 25. I tend to agree but think maybe UNC can be put there with them. What do you think? UNC has been pretty strong all year.
Teddy Cahill: We actually had s somewhat lengthy discussion of this on the podcast, which I would encourage you to check out. When John first told me that, I didn’t agree. But the more I thought about it, the more I think he’s right. Oregon State and Louisville don’t really have holes. It’s nitpicking a bit, but I can find holes on North Carolina and Florida. Texas Tech and TCU have that potential, but they have to be healthy. So, yes, I do think Louisville and Oregon State have separated from the rest of the pack.

Wes (Mountain View, CA): Who is our Pac-12 POY, (both pitcher and player).
Teddy Cahill: J.J. Matijevic and Luke Heimlich

Brandon (Texas): I know there's still plenty of time before regionals, but right now, who are your favorites to win it all? Any dark horses?
Teddy Cahill: It starts with Oregon State and Louisville, obviously. Florida, North Carolina, TCU, Texas Tech are all in that mix too. As for a darkhorse, I’m awful at picking those because I’m never sure how off the radar they have to be. Is Michigan off the radar enough? Or do I have to get down to a team like Vanderbilt? I do like both the Wolverines and the Commodores to make a run.

Teddy Cahill: That’ll do it for today. Thanks to everyone for the questions. If I didn’t get to yours, you can leave it in the comments and I’ll try to come back and answer there.