Top 25 Chat (April 17)

Teddy Cahill: Welcome to this week’s college baseball chat. It was a fun week of games, so let’s get to the questions.

William (Starkville, MS): With the SEC slate at the halfway point who would you take to win the SEC regular season title?
Teddy Cahill: I’ll take LSU. You can break down schedules and find easier ones than what the Tigers are facing, but with the standings so tight and so many teams playing so well in that conference, I’ll go with the most experienced team. LSU is not going to be phased by anything down the stretch and has the talent to come out on top of a very good league.

Derek (Las Vegas): Is Mercer on the fringe of cracking the Top 25? National leader in wins (32) and road wins (15). Next week will be tough with 4 more road games @ Georgia Tech and @ Citadel with their ace JP Sears (57 IP, 87 K, 1.74 ERA).
Teddy Cahill: We’ve talked a lot about Mercer the last few weeks, but haven’t quite pushed them over the edge yet. The Bears are leading the country in wins, which is very impressive, but unfortunately for them, their marquee series win at East Carolina no longer looks so marquee and their strength of schedule is 165. But I’ve been impressed by what the Bears have done this year and wrote about them today in Off the Bat https://www.baseballamerica.com/college/off-bat-streaks-oregon-state-still-winning/

Justin (Arkansas): Arkansas may not have the best RPI but can you explain a team like Florida who is 8-7 in the league being ahead of them and a team like MSU whom Arkansas swept being so far ahead of them. Hogs have the best overall and SEC record in the league.
Teddy Cahill: While Arkansas did sweep the series, we feel that Mississippi State’s overall resume is better. The Bulldogs are 12-10 against RPI top 50 teams, while the Razorbacks are 7-4. The series wins against Kentucky and South Carolina are loud. We’re impressed with Arkansas and the sweep of Mississippi State is very good. We just rate Mississippi State’s resume a bit better right now.

John (Oklahoma): What is wrong with OU ? Is it time for them to panic or do they still have a good chance to compete in the Big12 ?
Teddy Cahill: I don’t know that anything is really wrong with Oklahoma, the Sooners are just really banged up right now. It is hard to lose as many key contributors as they have and keep winning. I think they’re going to have to get healthy if they’re going to hang with TCU, Texas Tech and West Virginia at the top of the conference.

Seth (Clemson): Teddy: When is someone going to throw me a strike?
Teddy Cahill: Probably about the same time someone throws Brent Rooker a fastball.

Zach (Chapel Hill): As it stands right now, do you think Oregon State and North Carolina are virtual locks to be national seeds? And if UNC knocks off Clemson in 2 weeks, can they take the #1 overall seed from OSU?
Teddy Cahill: It’s still a little early for me to start talking about locks for national seeds. Both teams still have half their conference season to play. But the Beavers are already sitting on a five-game lead in the Pac-12 and have already played one of the teams tied for second (Arizona). It won’t be easy to make up that kind of ground. So they’re probably closer to a lock than UNC, but not by much. As for the No. 1 national seed, that wouldn’t be the place it would change hands. Oregon State finishes with a four-game series against Abilene Christian, No. 247 in RPI. That’s not going to help it if UNC is able to string together a few more big wins in the ACC Tournament. But even then, I think it’s going to be hard for UNC to catch Oregon State if both take care of business.

Mr. Mountaineer (Morgantown, WV): How close to a lock is WVU for it's first regional appearance since 1996?
Teddy Cahill: Again, early for me to be talking locks, but if West Virginia just takes care of business it will be fine. And at this point I think you can start looking at hosting. The Mountaineers are up to No. 8 in RPI and are tied for second in the Big 12, a game behind TCU. If they can hold on to that RPI and finish in the top three in that league, they’ll host. An incredible rise for West Virginia this year.

Chuck (Omaha): What impact do you see the Mike Rivera injury having for the Gators? Will JJ Schwartz's bat breaking on Saturday finally wake up his power this season?
Teddy Cahill: You never want to lose your Preseason All-American catcher. Rivera is so good for them defensively and brings some pop to the lineup. But Florida is one of the few teams set up to weather an injury to that kind of player. Mark Kolozsvary is a strong defender himself and J.J. Schwarz is a strong option as well. They’ll miss Rivera, but not as much as nearly every other team in the country would.

Burke Lyle (Athens Georgia): Why are Cal State Fullerton and Long Beach State ranked above schools like, Florida and Kentucky despite not being a power 5?. Who do think wins the sec east and west?
Teddy Cahill: I’ll just assume this is a joke. Coastal Carolina won the national championship less than a year ago, ICYMI. It was a pretty cool moment.

Maddog (Ashburn): Teddy: Seth Beer - Bad pitches? Bad fundamentals? Sophomore slump? Cause for short and long term concern? Or let it ride - things will get better? Tks.
Teddy Cahill: I think a large part of it is that what he did last year was never going to be sustainable. But also he has 11 home runs and a 1.591 OPS. That’s pretty good. I think he’ll be fine in the long run, maybe just adjust expectations down a touch from best player of all time.

Jake (State Farm): What college player (freshman, sophomore, junior, senior) has the highest ceiling?
Teddy Cahill: Without having put a ton of thought into this, I think I’ll take Jeren Kendall (junior), Joey Bart (sophomore) and Drew Mendoza (freshman). But that might change if I take some more time on the question.

William (Starkville, MS): How bout the weekend for Mississippi State. Assuming they can take care of business in the Bama/UGA series, and not get swept in the other 3 SEC series (VS Auburn, AT A&M, VS LSU) that should put them around 18-22 SEC wins (35+ total) and I would think RPI would remain under 20. Those numbers should solidly have the Bulldogs as a host right? And do you think State is capable of keeping this hot streak up?
Teddy Cahill: If that were to happen, yes Mississippi State would likely host. As for whether it can happen, we’ll see. I’m incredibly impressed with how the Bulldogs are surviving all these injuries, but at some point you just feel like it has to catch up to them. But as long as Brent Rooker is playing like the best hitting in the country, they’ve got a chance.

Daniel (DC): Who wins the A10? Does GW have any shot to play in the postseason?
Teddy Cahill: I’ll take Rhode Island over VCU, but I wish they were going to play this season. As for George Washington, sure. The whole second half of that conference is bunched up right now. If they heat up a bit down the stretch they could grab one of the last couple spots in the tournament.

Thad (Yelm, WA): Still only 1 berth from the Mountain West? San Diego State has quality wins outside of conference play, are they good enough to get a berth without winning the MW Tournament?
Teddy Cahill: San Diego State has some nice wins and a good record, but still has an RPI of 101. That’s a nonstarter. And it’s not going to get significantly better. The MWC just doesn’t have the RPI opportunities this year. It’ll be a one-bid league, possibly even if New Mexico is upset in the conference tournament.

Eagle Fan (Mississippi): With USM sitting at 31 RPI and 102 SOS. 4 top 50 wins at the moment, and as the schedule goes the rest of the way no more currently top 50 teams to play, Although ODU and FAU and SELA are right there close. Can USM simply win the rest of there weekend series and conf USA tourny and get a regional host or will the potential lack of top 50 wins and therefore not as strong of RPI and SOS hold them back?
Teddy Cahill: Southern Miss is probably going to be on the wrong side of the hosting bubble. CUSA is down this year (it is 7th in conference RPI) and that’s going to be a drag. Southern Miss also lacks something to really hang its hat on and that isn’t going to change. It’s best series win this year is the sweep of La Tech. That’s not really going to move the needle, I don’t think. All of that sounds a bit like Coastal’s resume last year, and the Chants had a better RPI than the Golden Eagles are likely to finish with. They, of course, did not host. So Southern Miss really needs some of those borderline top 50 teams to get into the 50 by the end of the year to help its case.

BJ (Houston): How legit to u think Long Beach State is?
Teddy Cahill: I think the Dirtbags are completely legit. So legit even that I picked them last summer to go to the CWS https://www.baseballamerica.com/college/eight-omaha-2017/#GEkf8cCTyAouYyR4.97

Jason R (Costa Mesa, Ca): Even in the top 10, I feel Fullerton is being overlooked a bit. Are they a possibility for a national seed? That pitching staff is scary.
Teddy Cahill: Fullerton is going to have to find a way to improve its RPI to be a national seed. The Titans are 20 right now, which isn’t quite good enough. They probably will need to win the Big West and win the series against Long Beach on the final weekend to make the push into the top eight. But even that may not be enough as the rest of the Big West is not as good as it was expected to be.

Trent (Alabama): Auburn still has a schedule left to make or break hosting potential with teams like Arkansas, Miss State, and LSU still to come.. but do you think there is a certain number of conference wins Auburn will need to host?
Teddy Cahill: However many conference wins it takes to finish in the top three in the SEC West ought to get it done.

Alex K (Moscow, Russia): Can Fullerton be a legit Omaha team if and when they get Eastman back?
Teddy Cahill: Absolutely. But they can make a run without Eastman if they needed to. I’m not sure they’d get to Omaha without him, but I wouldn’t want to face them in the postseason with or without him.

KD (Dallas, TX): It is going to be a fun final 4 series in the Big 12. With it turning into a 3-team race at the top, who do you pick to win the title between TCU, Tech and WVU? And why?
Teddy Cahill: This is a really tough question. I’m inclined to pick TCU because even after losing the West Virginia series, the Frogs remain in first and I think they’re the most talented team. The schedule sets up the best for West Virginia, which gets Texas Tech at home. But it’s hard to pick against TCU. The Frogs’ talent and experience will make them very tough down the stretch.

Mike (Hazard, KY): If u can only make it to 2 games, which 2 teams and which 2 players do u want to see? Thanks
Teddy Cahill: So this is basically an impossible question. But I’ll say I want to see Florida, Louisville, Oregon State and TCU. I don’t care how you set the two games up. But watching Faedo, McKay, Madrigal and Baker and company go at it would be fantastic.

Teddy Cahill: That’ll do it for today. Thanks to everyone for the questions. And, as always, if I didn’t get to yours, leave it in the comments and I’ll try to come back and answer there.