Top 100 Split Decisions: Meadows vs. Williams vs. Kepler

We had some debates in our discussions to reach a consensus for the Top 100 Prospects. In a desire for transparency, we give you some of the tougher decisions and our rationale for the selection.

Austin Meadows (22) vs. Nick Williams (27) vs. Max Kepler (30)

John Manuel: Meadows has the easiest, smoothest swing of these guys and had the best amateur track record, which matters to me. I’m sure I have a small bias toward him from having done the Florida State League Top 20. He and Kepler have the best chance to add defensive value in center field, but for me, I ranked these guys as future left fielders whose value comes from the bat, and I ranked them in this order based on faith in their future offensive value. Williams has the most volatility of the group—higher upside, worst strike-zone judgment. He could wind up being a tease.

Matt Eddy: While conceding that Williams has more power—and significantly more opposite-field power—than Kepler or Meadows, I project the last two to produce more offensive value for their teams in the plate appearances that don’t end with home runs, which is most of them. Neither speed nor defense is a separating tool for any of these outfielders, but in light of the ever-expanding strikeout-to-walk ratio in the majors, I trust the hitting approaches of Kepler (13.4 SO%, 13.6 BB%) and Meadows (14.4% SO, 7.4 BB%) to that of Williams (18.8 SO%, 6.8 BB%).

Ben Badler: I’m a huge Austin Meadows fan. He has such a sweet lefty swing with great barrel control and an excellent approach at the plate. As much as I love Meadows, I would roll the dice on Williams, who may have a slightly higher risk factor but is a more dynamic player. Nobody’s going to mistake Williams for Joey Votto, but he made tremendous strides with his plate discipline and hitting approach last year. There’s still risk there and it has to be a continual focus for Williams, but he showed a much better approach in 2015 than he ever had in the past with more walks and fewer strikeouts. Williams’ hands are ridiculously explosive, his swing works well and his raw power earns plus or better grades. He has the athleticism and speed to play in center field if necessary, but I think he fits better on a corner, where he can be an above-average defender in time. I’ve said this before, but Williams could be the Phillies’ version of Carlos Gonzalez.

J.J. Cooper: I find this a fascinating grouping as all are center fielders who may end up in a corner who all have very different strengths and weaknesses. I’m a fan of Kepler too, but it is worth noting that his breakout 2015 season came somewhat out of the blue. He’s been a well-regarded prospect for quite a while but this was the first time he’s posted a .750 OPS in full-season ball. I’d argue Williams is a potentially safer bet as he’s been more durable and has a longer track record of success in the minors. The strikeout-to-walk ratios have always been disturbing with Williams but he always hits thanks to some of the best hands in the minors.