Top 100 Split Decisions: Jorge Mateo (26) vs. Raul A. Mondesi (29)

We had some debates in our discussions to reach a consensus for the Top 100 Prospects. In a desire for transparency, we give you some of the tougher decisions and our rationale for the selection.

Jorge Mateo (26) vs. Raul A. Mondesi (29)

J.J. Cooper: Jorge Mateo had a great season. He dominated the South Atlantic League and had a great finish in the Florida State League. But it’s worth noting that Mateo is older than Mondesi. I can’t help but wonder what kind of numbers Mondesi would put up if he had spent much of the season in the Sally League–Mondesi’s stint in Lexington was two full seasons ago. Tools-wise I’d argue Mondesi has the edge in power, defense and arm while they have similar speed. Mateo uses his speed better and has a potentially better hit tool, but I don’t think the difference there is as much as it would appear from their minor league statistics.

John Manuel: I was a little startled to see Mateo is older than Mondesi; it almost made me reverse my rankings. But Mateo does appear to get more out of his tools, particularly his speed. He gets a bit of a mulligan for his age considering he essentially lost a year to injury. Mondesi’s lack of production to this point is frustrating; there are mitigating factors such as ballpark context and age, but I’d love to see what he would do if he actually got a chance to play a year at an age-appropriate level.

Ben Badler: I don’t know what to do with Mondesi. He’s a true shortstop who grades out extremely well for his tools, his athleticism and his overall baseball IQ, particularly in the field. But it’s hard to evaluate a player who has been pushed so aggressively and simply has not performed well. Not that I would expect him to perform well—we’re talking about a player who played in the high Class A Carolina League at 18 then jumped to Double-A last year when he was 19, an age where his peers are at least two levels behind him for the most part. Plus, like John said, he’s been doing it some pitcher-friendly ballparks. If Mondesi had raked at those levels, we would be talking about a top 10 prospect in baseball. Until Mondesi shows some semblance of successful performance for me to be more comfortable with his bat, the edge for me goes to Mateo. Don’t get me wrong, I have questions about Mateo’s bat too (I have both players lower on my list than the rest of the staff does) because I wouldn’t consider him a pure hitter, but there’s at least more of a track record off quality offensive performance with Mateo.

Matt Eddy: In terms of power and speed, Mateo and Mondesi produced at similar rates in 2015, albeit with Mateo at low Class A (primarily) and Mondesi at Double-A. The reason I ranked Mateo inside and Mondesi outside my top 50 is hitting approach. Mondesi pushed his strikeout and walk rates so far into the red at Northwest Arkansas that he’s going to have to be awfully productive on balls in play to make that sort of approach work in the majors. Mateo, meanwhile, has a broader base of secondary skills if he can maintain some semblance of the walk rate he showed in 2015.