Top 100 Prospects: Kaprielian, Cease May Take Big Leap

Every year, once the Top 100 Prospects list is released, editors at Baseball America are asked three main questions: How close did my favorite prospect come to the list? Could my favorite prospect make a big jump up the list? Why didn’t my favorite prospect make the list?

Well, we can’t answer every question but here’s some tidbits on players who could climb and those who have fallen.

JUST MISSED

Here’s a look at some prospects who missed the 2016 Top 100 list but could easily jump onto next year’s list.

James Kaprielian | RHP, Yankees

Kaprielian, the Yankees’ 2015 first-rounder from UCLA, was one of the last few players in consideration for the final spot on the list. His fastball bumped 96-97 mph in pro ball with short-season Staten Island and in fall instructional league. Each of his other three pitches—curveball, slider and changeup—grades as at least average. He should start this year at high Class A Tampa and could zoom through the minor leagues.

Trevor Story | SS, Rockies

With Troy Tulowitzki dealt to the Blue Jays last summer and no long-term answer at second base, Story’s path to Denver is clear. The Rockies added him to the 40-man roster this past offseason after clubbing a combined 40 doubles and 20 homers between Double-A and Triple-A. He has a chance to stick at shortstop but also has experience at second and third base and could get to the majors this year.

Dylan Cease | RHP, Cubs

Cease had Tommy John surgery just before the Cubs drafted him in 2014, and got back on the mound late last season for 11 appearances in the Rookie-level Arizona League. Despite his modest frame, Cease uses a whip-quick arm to produce upper-90s heat and a low-80s curveball with the shape and bite to project as better than average. His changeup is a work in progress, and this season should go a long way toward measuring where he is post-surgery. If his stuff has come all the way back over a full-season workload, he could make his way onto the 2017 Top 100.

Josh Naylor | 1B, Marlins

The Marlins’ system is a wasteland right now, but a big year from Naylor could go a long way toward ameliorating that situation. Miami popped the hulking Canadian in the first round of the 2015 draft in large part because of his top-grade raw power, and he rewarded their faith with a strong showing in the Rookie-level Gulf Coast League. The Marlins believe he’ll produce average to go with his power, and he’ll start trying to prove them right in 2016 at low Class A Greensboro, which has a home park known for enhancing power production.

Garrett Whitley | OF, Rays

One of the toolsiest players in the 2015 draft, Whitley had long been on the Rays’ radar and they took him with their first-round selection. The numbers didn’t jump off the page in his pro debut, but his 21-to-37 walk-to-strikeout ratio was impressive. Tampa Bay believes in his power potential because of his big-time bat speed. His plus run tool also serves him well in center field. He could jump into the Top 100 next season with a strong showing at low Class A Bowling Green.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | 3B/OF, Blue Jays

The son of the longtime major league outfielder and 2004 AL MVP, the Blue Jays gave Guerrero $3.9 million for his immense power potential. He’s built differently than his dad, but he’s got some of the same attributes—bat speed, hand strength, hand-eye coordination—and is a similarly lethal weapon on pitches anywhere in or out of the strike zone. Even though he was an outfielder when he signed, the Blue Jays are trying Guerrero at third base. If he outgrows the position, he’ll slide back to the outfield, but with his body type, first base might be more likely.

IN BUT COULD JUMP

These five prospects made the back end of the 2016 Top 100 Prospects list but could climb into the Top 50 in 2017.

Bobby Bradley | 1B, Indians

Bradley checked in at No. 93 on this year’s list after a season for the ages in the low Class A Midwest League. His 27 home runs with Lake County were the fourth-most for a teenager in the MWL in the last 50 years. His raw juice translates well in games, and the Indians believe in his ability to hit for both average and power on his way toward a future as an everyday first baseman. He struck out 32 percent of the time in 2015, but the Indians think that will improve as he matures.

Michael Kopech | RHP, Red Sox | Video

Unfortunately, Kopech’s 2015 season will be remembered more for his positive test for an amphetamine than what he did on the field before the 50-game suspension. With low Class A Greenville, Kopech showed off an explosive combination of a high-90s fastball and an above-average but inconsistent breaking ball. With those two pitches, plus a developing changeup, Kopech racked up nearly 10 strikeouts per nine innings and held hitters to a .228 average. If he improves his command he could make a major leap from his current spot at No. 89 on this list.

Brent Honeywell | RHP, Rays | Video

Already at No. 65 on this year’s Top 100, Honeywell could jump into the top tier if he dominates his first test at Double-A. Using a combination of mid-90s fastball, changeup, curveball and screwball, Honeywell carved up both A-ball levels. He whiffed nearly a hitter an inning, walked just 27 in 130 frames and showed tremendous confidence on the mound. He’s likely to reach Double-A as a 21-year-old, and how he fares against more advanced competition will go a long way toward his placement on next year’s list.

Brady Aiken | LHP, Indians | Video

Perhaps the biggest wild card on this year’s Top 100, Aiken’s story is well known. He was taken No. 1 overall by the Astros in 2014 but squabbles over the health of his left arm led him to become the first top draft pick to not sign in three decades. He attended the IMG Academy as a post-grad and after just 13 pitches in his first start tore the UCL in his left elbow and had Tommy John surgery. Despite that, the Indians drafted him No. 17 overall in 2015. He’s gotten back on the mound now, and made this year’s list on the strength of his potential. When he’s right, he fronts his four-pitch mix with a fastball that has peaked at 97 mph and a plus curveball. With a strong debut in pro ball he could move way up from his current spot at No. 71 on the Top 100.

Ian Happ | 2B/OF, Cubs | Video

Continuing their recent trend of taking polished college bats (see: Bryant, Kris and Schwarber, Kyle), the Cubs used their first-round pick in 2015 on Cincinnati’s Happ. He ripped through the first pro stop at short-season Eugene before moving to low Class A South Bend. He fared well in the Midwest League and showed a polished and explosive swing from both sides of the plate. He jumped around the diamond in college but has played solely outfield as a pro. He moved to second base during the fall instructional league, and he’ll get a long look there this season. He ranks at No. 87 on this year’s Top 100 but could move way up with a strong first full look as a pro.

IN LAST YEAR, OUT THIS YEAR

Not everyone from the 2015 Top 100 Prospects who is still prospect eligible made it back onto the list this year. We catch up with why some of last year’s top prospects fell off this year’s list.

Hunter Harvey/
Dylan Bundy | RHPs, Orioles

Both Bundy and Harvey still have potential. Problem is, they haven’t been healthy enough to get on the mound much. Harvey missed all of 2015 and hasn’t pitched in a game since July 25, 2014. Although he didn’t have surgery, he spent all of 2015 tormented by elbow issues that also kept him out of a scheduled stint in the Arizona Fall League. Bundy reached the majors in 2012 but has thrown just 65 innings since then. He’s had Tommy John surgery, then missed time with an oblique strain, and then had surgery to remove calcified masses from behind his right shoulder. Bundy threw two innings in the AFL, but felt stiffness in his arm and was shut down. Bundy is out of options, making his future role even murkier.

Tyler Kolek | RHP, Marlins

After becoming the highest-drafted high school righthander ever—No. 2 overall in 2014—on the strength of one of the hardest-recorded fastballs in draft history, Kolek struggled mightily in his first full pro season. His heater was inconsistent, showing flashes of its pre-draft form but at times sitting in the low-90s. Moreover, neither of his offspeed pitches—a slider and a changeup—proved to be an effective weapon against low Class A hitters. He walked 61 in 109 innings and struck out just 81. For a pitcher with a famously monstrous arsenal, the Marlins certainly were expecting more.

Mark Appel | RHP, Phillies

Appel, the No. 1 pick in the 2013 draft, has spent the entirety of his pro career as an enigma. He’s still got the dynamic fastball-slider-changeup combination that earned him tons of hype out of Stanford, but he rarely combines it with the requisite command to dominate. Moreover, the fastball lacks explosiveness, and hitters are way too comfortable in the box against Appel. He was dealt to the Phillies as part of the haul for Ken Giles, with the hope that a change of scenery improves both his stock and results.

Alex Jackson/
D.J. Peterson | OF/1B, Mariners

The Mariners’ system is bereft, and bad season from two former first-rounders only made things worse. Jackson struggled terribly at low Class A Clinton—producing a ghastly .453 OPS—before moving down to short-season Everett and rebounding a bit. Peterson started the year at Double-A Jackson and had an OPS of just .636 but was still promoted at midseason to Triple-A Tacoma, where he fared no better. That’s especially troubling considering he’s shifted over to first base, where all of his value will be tied to his bat. Jackson will return to the Midwest League to try make up for lost time after his early issues as a pro.

Reese McGuire | C, Pirates

Make no mistake about it: McGuire is still as highly regarded as a catcher as he was coming out of the 2013 draft, when the Pirates popped him at No. 13 overall. His bat, however, hasn’t caught up to his glove. He hit .254/.301/.294 with high Class A Bradenton, a figure that’s in the same range as what he produced in low Class A West Virginia a year prior. He’ll move to Double-A Altoona this year with the hope that his bat will improve away from the pitcher’s paradise of the Florida State League. McGuire’s defense should get him to the big leagues but to be a regular, he’ll have to hit more.