Top 100 Prospects Chat

J.J. Cooper: I’ll jump in in just a minute or two. Recording a quick radio spot. Thanks for coming out.

Mike (NY): is Bobby Bradley a top 50 guy next year
J.J. Cooper: Absolutely could be. One of the higher risk, higher reward players in this year’s Top 100. Bradley dominated the AZL in 2014 and put together a nearly equally impressive 2015 season in the Midwest League. You can’t help but love the power and Bradley has shown he can hit for average at times as well, but the strikeouts are scary as well. If Bradley goes to high Class A, hits for power again and shows some improvement in his contact rate, than he could climb into the Top 50 next year.

Frank (Chicago, IL): What led to Kaprielian's omission? Was he close? thx
J.J. Cooper: I’ll let John answer this again later as he’s a big Kaprielian fan. I would expect him to crack next year’s list as he’s a polished college draftee who saw his stuff get better and better last year. He was in the just-missed list.

Chris (Tampa, FL): Not many other publications have included Jake Bauers in their top 100 despite his success for his age. What about him puts him in this list for you guys?
J.J. Cooper: We’ll have a split decision on this today but compare him to Dominic Smith. Smith had a longer track record, but as a senior in the same area Bauers outhit Smith. As a pro, Bauers has outhit Smith consistently as well and reached Double-A quicker and he’s younger. Smith is a little better defensively at first (Bauers is good too) but Bauers is more athletic and has left field as an option as well while Smith’s limited athleticism limits him to first base. There are scouts who think Smith has a grade better bat, but they are very similar–hit first first basemen whose questions revolve around how much power they will produce.

Mike (NOLA): Just curious how your publication has a guy like Alex Bregman 20 spots lower than all of the other top prospects lists? there seems to be wild inconsistencies with the other lists across the board. Can you all explain that?
J.J. Cooper: I’m sure other sites would say the same thing but we’re not consulting other site’s rankings before we do ours. Our reason for ranking Bregman where we did is that we think he is a very safe middle infielder with a solid but unspectacular upside. He’s ranked in a similar group with Franklin Barreto (#35–better bat, less defensive value), Brendan Rodgers (#40–better upside, further away), Gleyber Torres (#41–better upside, similar defensive tools, younger but also a little riskier) and Tim Anderson (#45–more athleticism, less defensive reliability but rangier, more offensive upside but also more risk). That seems like a perfect range for him to me. I don’t think Bregman stands significantly above that group. If you believe in Bregman, you believe that his work ethic, high-energy approach will allow him to reach the upper limit of his tools. Scouts at best think he’ll be fine at shortstop, but others think he’ll slide to second base long term because of range limitations.

Delearyous (Delaware): Could you give some insight on what has happened with Kolek? Over-hyped, coaching, mechanical? Do you see a turnaround?
J.J. Cooper: His stuff didn’t hold up consistently over the longer pro season. He was low-90s a lot of outings although every now and then a 96-97 mph would pop up. The hope is the Marlins’ new pitching development approach–Jim Benedict is a big hire–gets him going. Kolek’s secondary offerings looked very underdeveloped in Greensboro last year but the hope is that he’ll sharpen the slider (his curveball is not impressive) to give hitters something to worry about beyond just a fastball.

Ryan (Houston, TX): Other experts generally ranked AJ Reed in the 40's on their lists. What do you suppose you see in him to rank him where you did?
J.J. Cooper: Reed is a divisive prospect. You can find scouts who are still skeptical about how much he’s going to hit. It’s very easy to find scouts who worry about his body as he was very heavy last year. His bat speed is fine, but we’re not talking about Gary Sheffield’s blink-and-you-miss-it swing. And he’s struggled against LHPs at times. So those are the negatives. Here are the positives–Reed can really, really hit. He dominated the SEC in 2014–he led the nation in home runs, slugging and OPS and he was just as dominant in high Class A and Double-A last year. He has an excellent two-strike approach that allows him to get more chances to get to his power and he draws a ton of walks. Reed could end up being a slugger with power and walks. Ryan Howard, a slugger who was underrated in the minors, is a production comp in my mind.

Norm C (Connecticut): Interesting that every one of Buxton's tool is at or better than Seager's and some were far better. Can you explain how Seager can be considered a better prospect or even as good a prospect as Buxton?
J.J. Cooper: Less risk. Seager has produced at a higher level than Buxton and he has a better injury history. Both are outstanding prospects but Seager is a little safer.

Trey (Greenville): With Berrios 3 years younger and without a checkered medical history, can you elaborate on why he ranks several spots behind Matz when their scouting grades appear so similar?
J.J. Cooper: LHP vs. RHP and Matz has done it at the big league level already. That’s a big plus in his corner. It’s only nine starts, but Matz was really good in those nine starts with excellent stuff. Berrios is a safer prospect in my mind, but Matz has a higher ceiling.

Nate (Pittsburgh): Why is Josh Bell never ranked higher? He's consistently hit in the minors.
J.J. Cooper: There’s still some significant work to do is why. He’s a first baseman who is not yet capable of playing the position–Bell was extremely rough in his first pro time at the position to the tune of 16 errors. But Bell can hit, especially against RHPs. He’s a very solid prospect.

John Manuel: Hey guy, JJ got us started, I’m going to hop in as well. I will start by addressing Kaprielian; I did include him on my personal Top 100 right around No. 74, as I think I have more belief in his fastball velocity and effectiveness than the rest of the staff. Very good pro debut didn’t hurt, and I thought he was the best bet among college starting pitchers in the 2015 draft class as well. That said, he did pitch at 89-91 mph a lot for UCLA in his career, and that was with an extra day or two of rest compared to what he’ll get as a pro. There’s good reason for skepticism.

Shawn (Portland): If they were eligible for #BA100 where would the Gourriel brothers rank on the #BA100 this year?
J.J. Cooper: Yulieski would be somewhere around #30 in our quick first pass. Lourdes would be more in the 90-100 range. Those are both quick estimates as we obviously didn’t chew over those rankings like we did when we actually did the Top 100.

Bryana (Atlanta): When the Braves are back to competing for the NL East again, who will be their best player?
John Manuel: Probably still Freddie Freeman. Among their prospects, obviously we’d say Dansby Swanson, since we ranked him highest and he has the highest ceiling BA Grade in the Prospect Handbook as a 65.

Kevin (Boston): Who has a better chance at realizing their potential. Espinoza or Robles?
J.J. Cooper: Robles is a position player, Espinoza is a pitcher. I’m going to almost always say the position player because pitchers have a whole lot more ways to suffer career-altering injuries.

Jmax (Niagara, Ont): Swanson's ETA is listed as this summer. If he comes out raking, do we see him in June or is a September cup of coffee more reasonable? Also, where does he play? I can't see them bumping Aybar, but then again I'm sure he could easily be traded. Thoughts?
J.J. Cooper: August. If Aybar has a solid first half and Swanson develops as expected I would envision the Braves trade Aybar for further prospects and promote Swanson at the trade deadline. The Braves have no problem moving shortstops quickly–see how quickly Andrelton Simmons jumped to the big leagues.

Dan (Mid-Atlantic): Could Cody Reed break camp with the Reds? Also with the two 70 grades on his FB and SL (and CH lagging behind), could we be looking at a future late-inning guy, or is he all starter?
J.J. Cooper: Breaking camp seems awful fast with a team that is rebuilding and has a TON of pitchers to sort through. Makes sense to slow Reed’s service time clock by taking it slower. The change isn’t as good as the slider but it’s still good enough to start. He’s a starter to me. The funny thing is the changeup was Reed’s best pitch in high school, but then he had 10+ less mph on his fastball back then.

@Jaypers413 (IL): How close were RHPs Archie Bradley and Kyle Freeland to making this list? In addition, both Brandon Drury and Tom Murphy, both of whom were ranked lower than them on their respective organizational rankings, each made the list. Can you elaborate? Thanks for the chat.
John Manuel: Couple things. 1) Freeland’s an LHP. 2) Bill Mitchell and Mike Lananna, who did those Top 30s, weren’t in the Top 100 meeting, Bill being busy covering a Juco weekend and Mike working on the college preview issue. 3) Their BA Grades & Risk Factors put them in very similar territory. Drury is a 50-Low, while Bradley’s a 55-High. Drury’s ceiling is lower, but we think he’s a lot closer to reaching his ceiling. If I can speak for the staff (and I can!), the consensus is that Bradley is more of a reliever, Drury a potential solid starter at 2b or 3b, not a star but a potential average regular, so we went position player over reliever. Similar case with Murphy, who also plays a coveted position in catcher and is a lower-risk guy. I love Freeland, but he wasn’t as good in the AFL as I hoped he would be. All pretty closely bunched, but in both cases we went with the position players who are both closer to the majors.

Bill B (Glen Allen, VA): Which prospect that fell off the list from last year are you the most surprised about? Tyler Kolek? Alex Jackson? Daniel Robertson? CJ Edwards? Someone else?
J.J. Cooper: Alex Jackson. He was considered the best high school bat in the 2014 draft class and after giving up catching to move to the outfield he should have had few defensive concerns to slow down his bat. But he simply was overmatched in the Midwest League. That’s not something I expected to see. In checking with John Manuel, he would answer Jackson as well.

GPT (San Jose, CA): Who was the closest Giants prospect after Arroyo to make the Top 100? If Jordan Johnson has a healthy season could he make the Top 100 next year?
John Manuel: Phil Bickford and Tyler Beede got support in our six staff ballots, both were in the 105-120 range, Bickford a bit higher. Three pitchers who were 2-time first-round picks—those 2 Giants and Mark Appel—all fell in that range, as did Dylan Bundy & Archie Bradley and Hunter Harvey, and Jameson Taillon. A lot of prospects who you would think would rank in the Top 100 on pedigree but didn’t earn it this year.

Gary (Queens NY): I couldn't help but notice both Devers and Mazara have identical future tool grades. What led you to rank Devers ahead?
John Manuel: Infielder vs. outfielder and age are both Devers advantages, and both of some significance. FWIW, I had Mazara 24 & Devers 25 on my Top 50, which can be found in the Prospect Handbook.

Eric (Boston, MA): I see you gave Espinoza an 80-fastball. Could he crack triple digits once he's physically maxed out? If so, will his control remain plus?
John Manuel: I suppose it’s possible but certainly not necessary. I wouldn’t want him to put more effort into his delivery; he does it so easy, that’s the biggest part of the appeal with him. He’s easy upper 90s gas, almost effortless.

Jeff (MD): How many games do you try to see each prospect before you become comfortable giving them a rating?
J.J. Cooper: Thanks for the question as it allows me to clear up a misconception. We are not scouting these guys and putting them where they are based on our looks. We see a ton of these players–check out our videos on the Top 100 Players and you’ll see that we have video of 88 of our Top 100 players from us seeing them in person. That being said, if we tried to do this based on our looks our rankings would be very incomplete. Literally no one sees everyone, and even if somehow you came close they would be very cursory looks–there are 140 or so days during the minor league season. There are 120 full season teams and more than 70 additional short-season/rookie level teams in the U.S. plus more in the Dominican. A scout scouting a hitter wants to see them for 3-4 days at least. Add it all up and you see the impossibility of anyone lining up their rankings based on first-person looks. Our rankings have always been based first on talking to scouts/front office officials and coaches who do this for a living. We talk to as many people in the game as we can, sift through their opinions and then use our knowledge based on our years doing this to add some further perspective. Here’s John’s answer to the same question: My point is, there’s all kind of data. Seeing a player first-hand is one piece of info; so is seeing him on video, his stats, scouts’ reports on him, our discussions with managers/front office types … it’s all information. The nature of what we do is we have to rank players that we don’t see. That just means we have to work as hard as possible to get as much information as possible on players.

Jose (Washington, DC): I was surprised to see Brendan Rogers ranked #40, considering how many teams had him as the #1 talent in the draft. Is that ranking a reflection of his ETA from the majors, increased injury concerns, or are his tools not what we thought they were at draft time?
John Manuel: We had him No. 1 on the #BA500 as well, but it wasn’t like there was a huge difference. He was hard to rank for several reasons. 1) He didn’t have a great spring in HS. 2) He didn’t have a great pro debut. 3) Lots of questions about effort level throughout the entire year. 4) Pioneer League sources were quite down on him from effort and conditioning standpoint, which led to the injury issues. 5) He ranked behind Jon Gray on our Rockies list, and we try very hard to keep our No. 1 guys as the top guys on the Top 100, even if the entire BA staff doesn’t agree. All the Rockies guys are hard to separate; honestly, after the Top 100 process, I think the staff “consensus,” such as it is, would have had Ryan McMahon No. 1 amongst Rockies players. I still believe in Gray, I like his slider quite a bit but acknowledge his fastball has backed up a bit. He’s pitched in a lot of tough parks for pitchers, I believe he’ll be better for it as he pitches in Coors.

Joser (Washington, DC): Bellinger and Bauers are pretty high for first baseman who don't project to hit 20+ HR in the big leagues. Do you think they have a chance to be plus bats? Are we as a prospect community ignoring the age-relative-to-league factor? Hitting 30 HR in High A as a 19-year old feels quite impressive to me
J.J. Cooper: Interesting to choose Bellinger and Bauers as the guys who you ask about the ranking. I would say there is a much bigger question with Bauers and Smith than Bellinger. As you noted, Bellinger hit 30 home runs. Cal League or not, finishing second in a HiA league with 30 home runs (and top four in slugging) in a year where you turn 20 is impressive. I understand those questions much more with someone like Smith who has 10 career pro home runs in 2.5 seasons or Bauers who has 20 career pro home runs in 2.5 seasons. Bauers was incredibly young for Double-A last year which is impressive. He only held his own, didn’t dominate, but it is a big factor in his favor.

Seth (Raleigh): why did Austin Riley not crack your top 100?
John Manuel: We have 15 guys already from the 2015 draft class. He had a great debut, and he deserves kudos for it, but he hasn’t answered the biggest questions about him, which going into the draft, as a hitter, could he play third base? And what kind of athlete is he? He mashed in rookie ball; that’s much better than not mashing, or not being able to stay on the field every day like Rodgers. He was in the discussion, which is pretty good for a dude who wasn’t a consensus first-round pick. But for me, I’m a bit skeptical and need to hear scouts be convinced that he’s a 3B, not a future 1B.

Steve (California): I'm a Mets fan not sure what to make of Dom Smith. Would it be fair to say his 25% outcome is James Loney, and his 75% outcome is John Olerud? Does he have a chance to be better than Duda??
J.J. Cooper: I’d say his 25 percent outcome is more of a Triple-A first baseman than Loney. There’s some risk with Smith. The body is bad at an early age and he’s shown little of the power you expect from a first baseman. Smith can really hit and even as a bad-bodied first baseman he is excellent defensively. Both Loney and Olerud had much better bodies/athleticism than Smith. If the power develops he could be somewhere between Loney and Olerud but if the body gets worse and/or the power doesn’t pick up, he’s also got a decent chance of not being a big league regular.

itto (Puerto Rico): Cubs system at #20 and only 3 Cubs in the top 100 seems too low for a deep farm system. Any particular reason why these rankings were that low?
John Manuel: Who are the Cubs guys who should be top 100 guys? I love their young talent that’s in short-season ball, but most of their top guys in terms of ceiling are in short-season ball. Billy McKinney is a divisive prospect; our reports in the Southern League were not too bullish, lots of tweener reviews, not a CF and not the power for LF, not the arm for RF. He can hit but most of the scouts we talked to preferred Almora, and Albert’s ceiling, for me, is solid regular. He’s kind of like the Drury/Tom Murphy class of solid regular, and those guys are an infielder and a catcher, more value than a CF. Duane Underwood is a nice arm, but more of a 3rd starter at best if not a fourth starter, and he’s yet to show great durability. I can see Oscar de la Cruz or Dylan Cease or Eloy Jimenez or any number of other Cubs breaking into next year’s Top 100 after they perform in full-season ball. But I am confident our ranking of the Cubs’ system is more accurate than one ranking I saw that had them No. 4. I don’t buy that at all.

Scotty (New York, NY): assuming both Ozzie Albies and Dansby Swanson are starting IF for the Braves in '17, who do you see playing SS vs 2B and why?
J.J. Cooper: Swanson at SS and Albies at 2B. Swanson is a more physical player and is just much more of the standard mold of a big league shortstop. I think people sometimes forget just how small Albies is. Yes he’s listed at 5-foot-9, but even that seems optimistic when you see him in person. He’s strong for his size but Jimmy Rollins is really one of the few shortstops his size to have a significant career at shortstop in the past few decades. There are more second baseman his size.

Brian (DC): Was Junior Fernandez close to the top 100? Reports indicate that he has two potential plus pitches.
J.J. Cooper: Too far away for the Top 100 right now. Great candidate for the 2017 list.

Shaw (Indy): Curious about thoughts of Matuella. In same boat as Aiken, TJ before drafted. Did he even pop up in anyone's mind? What do you see for him?
J.J. Cooper: But Matuella had a significant back problem that caused scouts concerns before the TJ. He has a lengthier injury history than Aiken.

B (MD): It seems to me that there are two tiers among organizations. Fourteen teams have four or more prospects on the list, comprising 76 of the top 100 prospects. Twelve teams have two or fewer prospects. Is it common to see such a disparity between the "will-haves" and the "will-have-nots"?
J.J. Cooper: No this is an unprecedented Top 100. We’ve never had more than two teams without a Top 100 prospect, this year we have four. The haves and have nots are much more stratified this year than they are normally.

Dan Kennedy (San Francisco): Our league's site ("DankeeAcme") maintains a list of the various prospect rankings lists and notes each site's outlier ranking. Cody Bellinger (#54) certainly ranks as BA's. He didn't even appear in 7 of the other 9 lists. How much internal disagreement was there on his ranking? Did a few really rank him high? His stats weren't all that impressive.
John Manuel: JJ touched on Bellinger but I don’t know what the other sites are missing. (Nine? Really, 9? I guarantee you that’s too many.) Stats aren’t impressive? He was 20, hit 30 homers … according to Matt Eddy’s computation, Bellinger had a 137 OPS+, 14th among Top 100 players (not counting Andrew Benintendi, who ranked first in OPS+ but had just 86 full-season plate appearances) in 2015. He also is athletic enough to play CF, he’s a potentially premium defender at 1B (better than Dom Smith) … The only caveat with Bellinger is the K rate, which was high at 27.6. But it seems like the prospect community loves Ryan McMahon, and he had the exact same K rate as Bellinger; we don’t have any questions saying, “Why’d you rank McMahon?” Bellinger was a pretty consensus guy for us; we all had him in our Top 70s.

Storoschicken (Hamilton, Ontario): Julio Urias vs Anderson Espinoza. Both young, Urias is ranked much higher yet Espinoza grades out a touch better. Is there a bias towards players who were on the previous years top 100 or have been on the radar longer?
J.J. Cooper: Your question seems to forget that risk is a big factor to this too. Anderson Espinoza has made one start about the GCL. Julio Urias is in his third season of full-season ball, has dominated in the AA Texas League and has made it to Triple-A. When teams evaluate players they do look beyond just the tools grades. We LOVE Espinoza, but he’s yet to prove he can throw five innings in a game. He’s yet to show he can get low Class A hitters out, much less Double-A hitters. When ranking players, you need to have a bias towards players who are closer to the big leagues. The attrition rate of players in the low minors making it to the majors is much more significant than the attrition rate for Double-A/Triple-A prospects because there are so many tests that the players in the lower-levels have yet to pass. Are they durable, does their secondary stuff play in the zone or is it just chased. Can they throw strikes against the smaller strike zones of higher levels, etc, etc.

Brian (Ohio): I'm having trouble figuring why Austin Meadows keeps appearing above Bradley Zimmer on prospect lists. Please enlighten me. Zimmer seems to have better tools with the exception of the hit tool, and I think they are much closer there than you guys projected (70-55). 70 hit just seems unrealistic to me.
John Manuel: Meadows is a good 2.5 years younger than Zimmer, and I do believe he’s the better hitter by a grade. Zimmer struck out 128 times last year, 23.9 percent of ABs. Meadows’ K rate was 14.4. Zimmer did reach Double-A but he’s older as I said and didn’t do that well in Double-A. Lastly, our scouting reports are more bullish on Meadows’ swing—his balance, his time in the hitting zone, his pitch recognition. I like Zimmer; frankly I think we’re pretty bullish to have him as high as we do. I really like Meadows and prefer him, but looking at the ballots, we all had them very close.

Todd (Mckinleyville ca): Which farm systems do you see being at the top 3 years from now?
J.J. Cooper: That’s really hard to do as we don’t know who will be drafting high in 2017 and 2018. With the way the CBA slants spending towards the teams who draft at the top these rankings can change dramatically in three years. Trades also tweak too much. For instance, I would have never predicted three years ago that the Braves would be a top 3 org now, but then they have traded for a TON of talent in the past year. As far as who could lead this list next year? I’d say the Braves and Brewers. The Braves have a ton of high ceiling depth which could be higher ranked next year with solid development this year (Touki Toussaint, Austin Riley, Kolby Allard, Max Fried for example). Very few of their top prospects will likely graduate this year and they will add a big draft class (#3 pick) and spend a ton internationally this summer. The Brewers have a ton of prospect depth. They will graduate Orlando Arcia I would assume, but they will also draft high, and they have a lot of intriguing lower level prospects who could take steps forward.

Grant (NYC): John, did you make a case for Conner Greene and Tim Cooney to make the BA 100?
John Manuel: Vince Lara actually made a strong Cooney case and almost won the day! I didn’t as Greene didn’t get balanced ballot support from the staff, and the way we do it, so that the meeting doesn’t take a month, is we pick and choose a couple of people to advocate for, and my pitcher choice was Kaprielian. You can see how much sway I have over our staff considering he’s not on the list …

Eric (Huntington Beach, CA): What are the chances Jose De Leon can be a frontline starter with the kind of K rates he showed in this season, or is the spike in home runs late season a sign of better hitters catching up to him and limiting his upside to more of a mid rotation arm?
J.J. Cooper: The spike in home run rates I would say was a sign of him running out of gas at the end of a long season. That being said, if he ends up a solid No. 3 that’s great. The Dodgers would be thrilled with that. I’d say a close to big leagues No. 3 is a pretty solid projection for him.

Greg (Philly): Starling Marte hit .287/.337/.444 last year with a 4.3% BB rate. Is that a realistic offensive expectation for Nick Williams or is he a different type of player?
John Manuel: Different players, as Marte is a much better defender and potential CF, but yeah, Williams could wind up with that kind of hitting line. Wouldn’t surprise me if Williams hit for more power considering the ballpark. Pittsburgh’s park plays tough for RH power if memory serves.

Matt (D.C.): The BA list has Aaron Judge quite a bit lower than other top 100 lists. While I respect your list the most I feel you are undervaluing Judge's hit tool. Let's say he can consistently hit .275 in the big leagues. What kind of player are we looking at in the Bronx?
John Manuel: Judge ranked 47th out of position players ranked in the Top 100 in K rate, at 26.7. Compare him to Bellinger, who was young for his league and is a better athlete, plus a more conventional body. I was on Judge last year in the FSL, but he was pretty bad in Triple-A — .681 OPS and almost 4-1 K-BB rate. Why should Judge rank so much higher than Hunter Renfroe? Renfroe has similar athleticism and power, similar swing-and-miss issues, similar athleticism, similar profile, has reached Triple-A and was drafted ahead of Judge in the same draft. I can see liking Judge better; I think he has better feel for hitting than Renfroe. But ultimately I think they’ll provide very similar value.

Norm C (Connecticut): I am a little surprised to see Turner's hit tool at 60 which would make him a very dangerous weapon with his speed. I thought his hit tool was more of a question coming out of NC St.
John Manuel: It was; since he signed, he has a .322/.384/.454 line in the minor leagues, over 733 PA. He didn’t hit in the majors in spot duty. I think he’ll hit, and he has enough juice to keep pitchers honest, plus the speed to leg out bunt and infield hits. Go find the video of the bunt his junior year at NC State where we got him at 3.45 seconds to first on a drag bunt. The guy IS a very dangerous weapon.

JP (Owasso, OK): How close was Josh Hader to making the top 100? Is he someone that could see a big jump this year?
John Manuel: Only one of us had him on a Top 150 (Matt Eddy). I would say our staff consensus is that he’s a reliever. He may wind up being a guy we miss on if he sticks as a starter. He’s very unconventional, and historically sometimes we miss on the unconventional guys.

JP (Owasso, OK): Is Lewis Brinson's hit tool for real? It seems like he has elite level tools, but I'm still a little iffy on that hit tool.. If that comes together, he's a superstar in the making, right?
John Manuel: I think that’s a fair assessment. He has big raw power and plays a premium position with a premium body. He does have superstar potential. Honestly to me I feel like he’s most similar to another player I had a different question on, Starling Marte.

Mike P. (Philly): Keith Law was asked why he ranked Kevin Newman so much higher than most (has him 23rd) - and he responded with "ask others why a true shortstop who’s a 65 runner, rarely strikes out, and has a strong history of hitting for average (at U of A and two summers on the Cape) isn’t a top 100 prospect." So...why doesn't he rank that high for you guys (doesn't crack the top 100)? Do you not see him as those things?
J.J. Cooper: All I can do is explain our evaluation of Newman. I’m not ripping anyone else’s viewpoint, but I can explain ours. We think Newman is a fine hitter with very little impact. Newman has never hit for power anywhere and doesn’t really try to drive the ball–most scouts don’t see him developing much power. And when Newman got into Pac-12 games he didn’t have much impact at all. Yes, he hit .370 for Arizona but he had a .675 OPS (.262/.314/.361) in Pac-12 games as a junior. Around the conference the coaches knew the scouting report, pound Newman inside and watch him struggle. It was no better the year before (.258/.315/.308). If you’re looking for an apples to apples comparison, Newman’s double-play partner at Arizona Scott Kingery hit .392/.423/.561 in Pac-12 games (while outhitting Newman overall). Kingery outhit Newman in 2014 as well, both overall and in conference games. Now Newman is a shortstop and Kingery is a second baseman, so Newman is a better prospect, but we didn’t consider Kingery for a Top 100 spot either. Newman went 19th overall last year for a reason. He wasn’t really in consideration for a Top 100 spot for us.

Adam (Wayne): Does Rafael Devers stick at 3B? Does he have the fielding ability to do so or do you guys think he moves across the diamond to 1B in the future?
J.J. Cooper: Personally I think he has a solid chance to stick. His body doesn’t look like a traditional one for a third baseman but scouts see more athleticism and agility than you would expect. He can’t get much bigger and stay at third long term but if he keeps a watch on his body he should be able to stay there.

Ray (Burlington, NJ): What's the difference between Gleyber Torres and Javier Guerra? Will Torres hit for more power once he matures?
John Manuel: I do see Torres hitting for more power as he matures and goes on, but Torres is a year younger and has a longer track record, being regarded as the top pure hitter int he 2013 international signing class. But Guerra actually has hit for more power; neither controls the K zone at this juncture, but I have more faith in Torres’ hitting ability than I do for Guerra. I like both as future regulars at shortstop, first-division regulars.

Jeff (MD): Who has a higher ceiling Julio Urias or Anderson Espinoza?
J.J. Cooper: Espinoza has a higher ceiling to me, but again, as mentioned earlier, the risk is way higher for a pitcher who has 1 season of complex leagues under his belt.

DH (Pittsburgh): How confident are you in AJ Reed's ability to rake in the big leagues? Are you worried about his splits? Did he have those splits in college? A 1B ranked at 11, implies that you're confident he's going to hit a ton, yes?
John Manuel: Obviously we are quite confident. JJ had a great comp for him that scouts we have talked think is apt in Ryan Howard, and I think that would justify him being No. 11. I don’t know if AJ Reed will ever hit 58 homers in a year, but if he led the league in homers twice and RBIs 3 times and hit 350+ homers in his career … I think we’d all take that. To me his floor is a Lucas Duda type; Duda has hit 57 home runs the last 2 years, and while you’d hope for more of an all-around guy for the No. 11 guy, the Astros probably would be satisfied if Reed were Duda with a few more walks. The analytics are very strong in Reed’s favor; 13.8 % BB rate last year, a 176 OPS+ by our calculations … It’s an offense-first position, and he has a dominant offensive track record the last two years, in the SEC and pro ball, with a lot of that pro success coming at Double-A in his first full season. I have come around on Reed after having some initial skepticism.

Jeff (Indianapolis): Can you give us a sleeper who isn't on the Top 100 now but could jump into the top 30 come next year?
John Manuel: Conner Greene, rhp, Blue Jays, has a high ceiling and kind of came from nowhere last season. I know there is some Kevin Newman discussion out there; I’d bet more on Ke’Bryan Hayes to jump into the top 30. I’d also throw in #personalcheeseball Oscar de la Cruz.

Carl (Baltimore): Do you think the Orioles need to change the way they develop their pitching prospects? Switching sides of the rubber/evaluations of talent/pitch control..... Or could it just be a string of bad luck?
John Manuel: I think it’s a bit of both, but to not put too fine a point on it, I do think Rick Peterson, their Director of Pitching Development, has not had a great tenure there judging by the scoreboard. Their best homegrown pitchers were mostly acquired under the McPhail regime too, by the way. The biggest miss obviously is Arrieta; it’s never a good sign when you have a Cy Young Award winner in your midst and trade him (and Pedro Strop!) for Scott Feldman and Steve Clevenger.

Brandon (Charleston, WV): How close was Alex Blandino to cracking the top 100?
John Manuel: Actually quite close; I think he’s pretty similar in his profile to Brandon Drury, who is on the Top 100, and if Blandino wound up better, it would not surprise me. Drury is a 50-Low in the Handbook; Blandino is a 50j-Medium. He hasn’t reached the majors so he’s higher risk but I could see Blandino jumping into the top 100 next year.

Casey (Houston): If Carlos Correa was still eligible for this list, would he be ranked number one?
John Manuel: Yes.

Steve (Ubelhoer): Was it questions whether Cecchini can stick at short that left him off the list? If I told you he solved his throwing yips, where would he rank?
John Manuel: Not sure, because the offensive impact isn’t special either. He was in the 130-140 range on our ballots. I see him as being fairly similar to Zack Cozart eventually; I actually think he has a bit better contact ability but less power than Cozart, who I would categorize as a solid average SS at his best.

Will (Alabama): What projection do you see with Forrest Wall and where would he rank?
John Manuel: I really like Forrest Wall, but let’s be honest — he had a solid 2015, but it was not spectacular. He was expected to be one of the most polished hitters in the 2014 draft class, and he had to jump to full-season ball from high school, but his pedigree said he’d be a bit more ready for the jump. He didn’t hit LHPs at all, he’s not a great defender, and scouts I talked to just weren’t wowed by him. In that ballpark, which has I believe a 300-foot wall in RF, I think we thought we’d see more power, bigger offensive numbers. The scouts I talked to liked him, but they weren’t in awe of his hitting ability. And his value has to come from hit bat; he’s an athlete but with his arm issues, he’s never going to be a great defender at 2b.

James (New Jersey): If eligible, where would Shohei Ohtani have been ranked? Do you agree with Badler that he would have been the #1 pitcher?
John Manuel: He would be my No. 1 pitcher as well. Frankly he’d probably be No. 3 for me; I love Moncada, but a big league-ready pitcher would have to go over a low Class A 2B, no matter how much of a stud I think Moncada is.

Cw (Fort Worth): Any chance Alex Bregman forces Carlos Correa to 3rd base?
John Manuel: Not for me. I could see Correa playing himself off SS at his size, but I do not see Bregman being so spectacular that he pushes Correa off. I really like Bregman but Correa is a different cat.

Stew (San Diago): Was Ruddy Giron close to making the list? I know in the first half of the season he was getting rave reviews.
John Manuel: No; the season is longer than May. He had an outstanding first 1.5 months, but the grind is the grind, and he didn’t hold up over the course of the year. Interesting prospect however.

Sean (LA): I've found Thomas Eshelman's college numbers fascinating, but have read that his stuff is sub-par. Would you mind giving a quick scouting report?
John Manuel: He is fascinating. JJ’s comp on him is Kevin Slowey, who had similar control numbers in college (albeit not quite as good) but threw a bit harder. It’s elite command, an average fastball at 90-93 at his best, but the secondary pitches are all fringe-average or average at best. I’m fascinated by him as well and he also has modeling skills https://www.baseballamerica.com/college/right-back-started/

kevin (parents basemeny): Next year can you see Demi orimoyole (spell) making the jump to top 100?
John Manuel: I’m just calling him Triple O — all three of his names start with O. Short answer is yes, I can see him jumping up the list. The Brewers have several guys who could do it; Triple O really made waves with his tools in the Arizona League but didn’t control the strike zone, and that may burn him in full-season ball against better pitchers.

Josh (Tennessee): Is Christian Yelich a good comp for Jesse Winker or does Winker have more power?
John Manuel: Not really, because Yelich is a significantly better athlete. I’m not the right guy to ask about Winker, I’m lower on him than most. Honestly the person he reminds me most of is Jaff Decker, which is not a flattering comparison. Honestly the big leaguer he might be most like is Corey Dickerson. Nick Markakis had a similar profile in the minors but had more arm strength and athleticism, hence he was a better defender, in RF. I like Winker to an extent but want to see more home runs, or he’s going to have to be a really elite hitter against MLB pitching. I’m just not sure that he’s going to do that.

Matt (DC): John, it might be worth clarifying that the tool grades are not their present tools and simply their potential future tools if they hit their ceilings. There seems to be a good amount of confusion about what those numbers mean.
John Manuel: Matt, it does say “projected future grades” right there in the intro.

Randy (Dallas): Does any organization appear to year in year out have more "pop-up" guys that come from (relatively nowhere) to make the top 100? I'm thinking of Houston with the likes of Brett Phillips, Frances Martes, David Paulino, etc.
John Manuel: This probably explains some of the discrepancies in the Astros’ ranking as well. I didn’t do the Astros top 30 but still talked to two pro directors who were astounded by their pitching depth, and none of them was talking about Mark Appel either (obviously now gone). Paulino and Martes are two excellent examples; we were on Martes last year in the GCL thanks to Ben Badler, and we have liked Phillips since his high school days. But Paulino really kind of came out of nowhere.

Rhett (NC): Maybe this has been addressed below but when it comes to Braves prospects why does the ranking on this top 100 list differ from the Braves revised Top 10? On here it goes Olivera, Blair, Albies, then Allard. On the Top 10 it goes Blair, Olivera, Allard, then Albies. How is this so? An oversight?
John Manuel: It’s hard to get 6 people to agree on a lot of things, not to mention ranking baseball prospects. Different people regard ceiling vs. risk differently. That’s not inconsistency; that’s just life. Also, their BA grades are all in the same neighborhood — a 55/Medium (Blair) and a 65/Extreme (Allard) wind up in about the same the way we calculate them. Who would you rather have — the lower-ceiling guy with Triple-A time or the guy just drafted out of high school but had back surgery but also has a frontline-starter ceiling? That’s not a right or wrong question; none of these rankings are. It’s what you can justify, and with the Braves, honestly, you can just about justify any order.

Roger (CA): No questions yet on Andrew Benintendi. With what he did his last year in college and his dominate pro debut, should he be ranked higher ? He doesn't seem to have any obvious flaws at the plate, amazing strike zone awareness. I guess some question the power, but he showed a ton of power in college and the minors. Shouldn't he be a top 10 prospect on here ?
John Manuel: We do have him first among 2015 draft prospects. His track record is a little shorter than maybe a top 10 ranking would justify. We already have jumped him over Devers, who is younger, from our Red Sox ranking. But you have some BA staffers who agree with your take. I don’t see a reason to not love Benintendi as a player.

John Manuel: We do have him first among 2015 draft prospects. His track record is a little shorter than maybe a top 10 ranking would justify. We already have jumped him over Devers, who is younger, from our Red Sox ranking. But you have some BA staffers who agree with your take. I don’t see a reason to not love Benintendi as a player.

sam (NYC): sent this in yesterday, let me try again: how close were Jack Faherty and Brian Johnson to making the list?
John Manuel: Flaherty was fairly close; I’m a Flaherty believer for sure, love the athletic ability and changeup. Johnson for me is more of a 6th starter type at this point. I could be wrong but his velocity was down last year and I thought his velocity would tick up the more he pitched after going two ways in college. Instead, he’s still pitching with a fringy fastball. I like him but don’t love him as a prospect.

Kyle (Colorado): How do you guys see Tapia a very controversial guy I know just wanted your thoughts
John Manuel: Not too controversial for me; I don’t know what the controversy is. He doesn’t control the K zone, hits for solid power but not true corner power, and he has some issues in center field. I’m not sold on him being a true CF. Add it all up and I think he’s got a shot to be a solid-average regular, but I don’t see him being a star, and no one else at BA sees him that way either. Only one staffer had him in his top 100, Ben Badler, and it was toward the back of his 100.

John Manuel: There are still more than 100 questions in the queue, so I’m very excited to see how much interest people have in our 26th annual Top 100. I’ve been around for 18 of them and the interest keeps growing! Thank you very much. Check out all our Top 100 stories and podcasts, and if you missed the Top 50 show on MLB Network, it will still air once more, Feb. 21 at 5 p.m. ET.