Top 100 Draft Prospects Chat

Hudson Belinsky: Howdy! Thanks for your questions, and thanks for being the best fans in the game. I’ll try to get to as many questions as possible. I’m a big fan of all these prospects and I’m looking forward to sharing what we know! Fire away!

Brian (Atlanta): Can we get some clarity on Senzel at 2? He seems like a decent defensive third baseman, and he can clearly hit for average. What else am I missing that makes him second?
Hudson Belinsky: I’ll have an article about Mr. Senzel out tomorrow. That ranking reflects the upside of his bat and power. He has significant raw power, and I believe it will play more in game action as he ages. He’s also a solid-average runner who I believe will stay at third base.

Alex (Macon): What power projections would you put for Corey Ray? Is he a 15-20 homer guy, or is it higher or lower than that? Also, is he a big league CF?
Hudson Belinsky: That’s probably a reasonable HR projection for him. There’s some thunder in the bat and he’s made progress this spring. If he keeps it up, he is in the mix to be picked in the top 3. The center field question is part of why he doesn’t rank higher on this list. He has some speed and some scouts I spoke with believed he could play center. Others are less optimistic, noting that he needs work in the field. The team that takes him will likely believe he fits in center, and he could prove himself there in pro ball.

Alex (Connecticut): Who do you feel is a better starter between Jordan Sheffield and Connor Jones?
Hudson Belinsky: Good question. I personally see Connor Jones ahead of Jordan Sheffield for a few reasons. Jones has a wealth of pitches and he has more starter traits, with a better track record of health, innings building and command. At various points throughout a given outing, Jones will show a plus fastball, plus slider, and plus changeup. If he puts it all together—or gets close to doing so—he could be a middle of the rotation starter. Mr. Sheffield, on the other hand, has some of the most electric arm speed in the class, and it can be difficult for pitchers with that kind of explosive quick-twitch ability to develop timing and repetition. Sheffield’s slight frame also reduces the plane on his fastball, which can come into the zone flat at times. Sheffield’s offspeed stuff is good but doesn’t quite fit into the plus category, though he has a sharp breaking ball and has shown feel for a changeup at times. With all of that said, starting is not out of the question for Sheffield, and if he figures it all out he could be a monster.

JB (Greenville SC): How far away is Will Stillman from Wofford College from your top 100? Seen this weekend up to 96 with 81-85 hammer
Hudson Belinsky: Good call. He was not in consideration, but he may be going forward. If he continues at his current pace he could sneak up draft boards. Track record is something we really value, and his poor numbers as a junior are a little discouraging. That said, if he continues shoving, we can’t ignore him for much longer.

Dan (Augusta, ME): Still no love for Preston Palmeiro? How does he compare to his father at a similar age?
Hudson Belinsky: My dad works in water treatment, but I couldn’t tell you a thing about the process of keeping water safe. I’m a very different person than my father, and the same can be said of Preston Palmeiro. He is a stocky first baseman with a pretty lefthanded swing. Not sure there’s going to be enough power for him to profile as a big league first baseman. He has a chance to crack the top 200, and some scouts see him going in the 6th-8th rounds. Good bet to reach the upper minors, but I am still more of a skeptic than I am an optimist when it comes to Mr. Palmeiro. If he had a different last name, I am not sure we’d be talking about him as much. He is not Rafael.

Leprekhan (GA): You are very high on Nick Senzel with seemingly good reason. IF he is unable to stick in the infield, how much would that affect your valuation of him given the somewhat lack of power he's displayed up until this point?
Hudson Belinsky: First off, I believe he will play the infield. But to answer your question, he still should profile well in a corner outfield spot. His feel to hit is off the charts, Kemosabe.

Adam (Atlanta): Hi Hudson, Corey Ray seems like the real deal, but some evaluators think he isn't worth ATL's #3 pick. What do you think?
Hudson Belinsky: Corey Ray IS the real deal. I’m excited to get eyes on him again soon. So the questions on him entering this spring were about where he fits best defensively (CF or LF), his approach, and whether his power plays well enough for him to be a corner OF if things don’t work out in CF. Over the past two years, Mr. Ray has shown a tendency to swing at pitches that even great hitters can’t do much with; he’s still learning how to employ his bat speed and pretty swing. His strikeout rate as an underclassman is a little bit alarming, but he’s off to a really good start this year, and if he keeps it up he could prove himself to be deserving of a top 3 pick. There are also concerns about his performance against lefthanded pitching; his struggles against southpaws have continued into this spring, with him taking poor ABs against Drew Harrington in intrasquads and a few lefthanders he’s faced during the season. His ceiling is enormous, but there’s work to be done.

STL Hawkeye (Missouri): I know a lot of high school baseball has not started yet but do you see the draft favoring either college or high school players in 2016? Especially pitchers.
Hudson Belinsky: I don’t see it favoring either one. They are just different. There will be a lot of really likable HS prospects available after the top few rounds who will likely go to college to improve their draft stocks. It happens every year. There’s also more data and certainty with college players, so they can sometimes be picked ahead of where the pure tools might suggest they belong.

Andy (Georgia): Do you guys run these lists by people employed by pro teams? What was their reaction to Senzel at 2?
Hudson Belinsky: Yes. To give you a better sense of our process… I started by parsing through our previous lists and merging them together. I then added in players who were on the rise and sent out a rough draft of the list to my most trusted sources, the best scouts I know. John Manuel and I spoke with crosscheckers, area scouts, college coaches, and scouting directors about how we had the players lined up, where they were likely to be picked, etc. I thought I would be the high man on Mr. Senzel. He was #2 in our first rough draft. I got great reactions to him being that high on our list. Some said they thought he was the best player in the class. I could see him going #2 to the Reds.

Jacob (Fort Worth, Tx): What makes Will Craig the #38 prospect in the country?
Hudson Belinsky: Will Craig was worked like a dog as a sophomore, playing every day and racking up nearly 45 innings on the mound. He then participated in the TD Ameritrade Home Run Derby. He was gassed when he played in the Cape Cod League, and his quick-twitch ability had faded. Now that he’s rested, his bat speed has resurfaced. Analytics people in front offices will probably like him because of his performance at Wake Forest, and more traditional scouts will like him because of raw power and refined approach at the plate. There’s some skepticism about his defense at third base, but the offense be good enough to play at first base should he have to move. One of the biggest reasons we have him this high is because of his character, which receives very good marks from scouts. He’s done everything possible to help his team win, even when it meant being worn out when he played in the Cape. I’ll take that guy on my team.

Steve (Wilmington): Feel like the changes at the top are more do to regression by Puk and Hansen then by ascension of Senzel and others? Class weaker than first thought?
Hudson Belinsky: The changes reflect both of those things. I’ve never been the high man on AJ Puk, but I know he’ll go pretty high. Hansen is fascinating. Who is he? Is he a lights out front line guy? Is he a reliever? Lots of unanswered questions about Mr. Hansen. Encouraging to see him shove last week though… No, I still think it’s a decent class.

VandyMan (Hawkins Field): Where does Bryan Reynolds bat profile at the next level? Where does he end up positionally?
Hudson Belinsky: He has good contact skills and baseball instincts. Some people I talked to feel that none of his tools are plus, but the sum of his parts and his track record at Vanderbilt make him a safe bet. He’s likely to go in the first round.

Keith (Farmington, CT): Thanks Hudson. It seems like the big question on Delvin Perez is the hit tool, but he is moving up in the rankings. Is he making progress, and does he have a chance to even have an above-average hit tool?
Hudson Belinsky: There are some people who feel that Delvin Perez will hit at a high level. He struggled with consistency last summer, but he didn’t turn 17 until November, and he was often surrounded by people who didn’t speak the same language as him. You have to project a leap for the bat, but the rest of his tools are absurdly good. I’ve heard that he’s added some muscle.

Mark (Sienna Plantation): What's the deal with Ronnie Washington? Has always been highly ranked and committed to UT as a freshman but now he says San Jac. Stock seems to be falling or is that just me?
Hudson Belinsky: Ronald Washington was highly ranked by another publication at a very young age. I usually avoid publicly discussing underclassmen for a couple reasons. 1) They change so much as they age. Their bodies could look completely different by the time their rising seniors and playing in front of pro scouts. 2) We are talking about children, and some fans struggle to recognize that these young men may be affected by what is said about them publicly. Washington reclassified a little late, so he wasn’t at some key events last summer. He has raw power but there are concerns about the utility of his power and his non-offensive tools. I would not say his stock is falling, just that it was never as high as other publications might have reported.

VandyMan (Hawkins Field): Alec Hansen is a bit lower than I would have expected. If he continues to build on last week's performance how much could he rise?
Hudson Belinsky: If he shoves the way he did last week, he could, in theory, rise back toward the top of this list. His light track record and shaky start have me cautious.

Mike (South Jersey): How is Cal Quantrill's recovery from TJ surgery coming along ? You have him at #29. Will he pitch enough to climb higher before the draft ?
Hudson Belinsky: There are a lot of rumors circulating about Cal Quantrill. It seems unlikely that he’ll pitch in games before the draft, though it is possible. He will likely throw bullpens for teams as the draft gets close. If we’re thinking long-term, it makes more sense for him to follow a normal routine and not rush back before his body is ready.

Ken (Ontario): The 2015 Canadian draft class was exceptional...how does the 2016 class shape up in your view?
Hudson Belinsky: It will be hard for Canada to top last year’s class, but I like some of the players up there. It sounds like University of British Columbia RHP Curtis Taylor is the best of the bunch, but Jordan Balazovic, Austin Shields, Josh Burgmann, Clayton Keyes, and Nick Howie are all likable prospects too.

George (Santa Ana, CA): Who are some players who are just outside of the Top 100 you could see making a jump as the spring unfolds?
Hudson Belinsky: Well, we still haven’t seen how the cold-weather high school players are going to come out. Some of them will take a leap forward. Personally, I’m looking forward to seeing how northeasterners Adam Laskey, Tyler Mondile, and AJ Alexy come out this spring. In the midwest, Ryan Zeferjahn and Dalton Feeney are intriguing. In the northwest, we need to keep close tabs on Christian Jones and Kenyon Yovan.

Suzy Greenberg (Gamehendge): No love for Nick Solak?
Hudson Belinsky: Nick Solak and Blake Tiberi were both on the first rough draft of this list. They are both close to the top 100, but the lack of impact tools beyond the hit tools had both of them slide out. They will likely be in our rankings when we expand to 200.

Rich (NJ): CBA in NJ has two top players in pitcher Luca DeLatri and C Mortorano (probably butchering their spelling - sorry) any word on these two players?
Hudson Belinsky: Their season hasn’t started yet, but Martorano has made progress with his ability to use the opposite field better. Both appear likely to end up at North Carolina.

Wilson (Michigan): Where do you think teams prefer Alex Kirilloff, as a corner outfielder or an athletic first baseman?
Hudson Belinsky: He’s probably going to play the outfield. He has usable speed and a cannon arm. The real question is whether or not he can play CF long term. The team that takes him will probably believe in his chances to play CF.

VandyMan (Hawkins Field): How much of a gap is there between Jason Groome and the rest of the field? Is he a "strong" 1-1 or should we expect a group of players to be in the discussion (similar to last year)?
Hudson Belinsky: Right now he is the clear #1 talent, but there is a long spring to go. He is incredibly young, has great stuff, a projectable frame and an excellent delivery. If the others behind him take steps forward, they could pass him in theory, but I don’t expect that to happen.

Leprekhan (Georgia): If you are the Braves, who are you targeting with the third pick as well as hoping for with the 41st and 44th picks?
Hudson Belinsky: There are a lot of questions about the Braves, so I’ll try to address them here. It’s too early to tell who they might take, but the top 7 players in our rankings could be candidates. I saw a question about Atlanta’s draft strategy—whether they’re aiming for a certain demographic. I don’t think they are. The Braves are likely to take the best player available. They might add to their already impressive group of pitchers, or maybe they’ll get a premium high-ceiling bat. Still too early to tell. Ask me again in a couple months.

Patrick (Lake Forest, CA): Which outfielder do you take between Rutherford and Ray? Why?
Hudson Belinsky: I prefer Rutherford. I feel that his offensive tools are better than Ray’s, and I am more of a believer in Rutherford as a CF than Ray. But that is my opinion, not necessarily industry consensus.

Jordan A. (Los Angeles): What are your thoughts on #83 Nolan Martinez (RHP, Culver City CA)? Has really increased in velo over the past couple of months.
Hudson Belinsky: #HeliumAlert! Nolan Martinez has been routinely pitching in the low 90s—getting as high as 95—with impressive life and a gnarly breaking ball. He’s on the rise.

E (Illinois): I know he is outside of the top 100, but could you see a home schooled player like Nonie Williams who is graduating a year early move up into the top 100 before June, if so will his bat catch up to his defense?
Hudson Belinsky: Intriguing athlete but he is not that high for us as of now. I would expect him to end up at LSU. I know he reclassified, but that just makes him age appropriate for the 2016 class. His defense is pretty good, will always be hard for his bat to match that.

Ben (Miamisburg, OH): Could you see Blake Rutherford going as high as #2 to the Reds? Could he move fast given he'll be 19?
Hudson Belinsky: It is a possibility, but I expect them to be in on one of the college players at #2.

Jack (Washington): Where do you think Christian jones, Morgan McCullough and Austin shenton will land in the draft
Hudson Belinsky: Christian Jones has exceptional power and could play himself into the back of the top 10 rounds in terms of talent, but he may be better suited going to school and raising his draft stock given his struggles against breaking pitches at the Area Code Games. We’ll see how he does this spring, though. McCullough has really good feel for hitting, but his second base profile and stout stature will probably lead him to campus. Shenton has strength and the potential to play third base, but still a bit raw to project as a high draft pick out of HS.

Wilson (King of Prussia): Between Murphy, Okey, & Collins, which college catcher will make quickest MLB impact?
Hudson Belinsky: That’s a great question. These three were hard to sort through. I’d also mention Matt Thaiss (#98), and Jake Rodgers (Tulane) and Andrew Knizner (NC State), who were just outside the top 100. Okey is probably the safest answer to this question because of his all-around polish. But if we’re looking at the long term—I think Murphy’s tools could make him a strong defensive catcher with impact power and poor batting average.

Brad (North Carolina): Hudson, saw you had a chance to see Bryant Packard in person last week. After a very strong Jupiter with the Evoshield Canes how do you feel his draft stock is right now?
Hudson Belinsky: He’s really strong and he’s got feel to hit. I didn’t see him tested at third base, unfortunately. He probably fits somewhere in the back of the top 10 rounds as far as talent, but most high school players are not signable at that point.

Matt (PA): how would describe Delvin Perez's potential ceiling? legit chance to be a Power/Speed SS? how would you rate the future hit and power tools?
Hudson Belinsky: His ceiling is All-Star SS with impact power, speed, and defense. If he puts it all together he could be one of the best players in baseball… you’re asking the multi-million dollar question. His bat requires significant projection because of his raw approach and the swing-and-miss to his game, but he is so so young (17 in November). High risk, high reward.

Winderwood (Lancaster, PA): Due to recent comments by Klentak about the importance of building pitching through the draft, do you think the Phillies will stick with someone like Groome or Puk, or will Senzel eventually force them to move off a pitcher?
Hudson Belinsky: I expect the Phillies to take Jason Groome, but they are certainly doing their due diligence on AJ Puk. They had 7 scouts at his most recent start.

Adam (Atlanta): How closely do you feel the Top 100 will mirror the actual draft? When will you be coming out with a mock?
Hudson Belinsky: It should be pretty close. We will have a mock draft out next week.

Brad (San Diego): If Kyle Funkhouser rights the ship and pitches OK the rest of the season, will his extremely poor start still have a large effect on his stock come June?
Hudson Belinsky: Yes, it will be difficult for him to change peoples’ minds at this point. Some high level scouts have just seen him so bad that it will be hard for them to block out. He hasn’t been at his best for quite a long time at this point, and consistency was never his strong suit, even when he was pitching well.

Jeff (NC): What are the scouts saying about Rizzo and fielding? Where do they see him playing?
Hudson Belinsky: Some scouts think Joe Rizzo fits best in the outfield. Some teams think he might be able to catch, but he’d be a very long term project behind the plate and he has a long arm action.

Ben (Miamisburg, OH): Catcher depth seems pretty deep 40-100, but light at the top. Who can you see making a big rise up the lists like Tyler Stephenson did last year?
Hudson Belinsky: I’m not sure anyone is going to make that kind of rise, but Spartanburg Methodist catcher Tyler Lancaster has some buzz as a solid catch-and-throw guy with power. He has a high profile teammate in OF Kep Brown, so a lot of high level scouts will see him. It would not surprise me to see Cooper Johnson assert himself down the stretch, given his bat speed and the level of competition he’s likely to face.

Ben (Miamisburg, OH): If Moniak shows off more power this spring, could he rise into the top 5?
Hudson Belinsky: Unlikely. I think he’ll go right around where we have him ranked.

Ben (Miamisburg, OH): Who would you rank as the three best high school hit tools in this draft?
Hudson Belinsky: I LOVE this question. Hard to answer but I’ll go with this: 1) Nick Senzel 2) Mickey Moniak 3) Blake Rutherford

Frank (Philadelphia): Is Dalbec a legit 3B? What's keeping him out of top 50?
Hudson Belinsky: There are questions about him at third. His actions are a little stiff. He’s not in the top 50 because he has not proven that he will ever hit enough for his power to play. He could end up being a Russell Branyan type.

Steve (Boston): Question about Groome's delivery: is it me or does he appear to punch out his fastball? With offspeed pitches, he finishes his arm stroke and gets over his front side but with fastballs, he stops his momentum almost immediately after release. It seems like he could remedy it easily but until then, I don't understand why his delivery is so widely praised.
Hudson Belinsky: His delivery is praised because of how easy he makes it look. He repeats his stride very well, doesn’t have too much length to his arm action and finishes cleanly out front. It looks like he’s playing catch, then you look at you’re radar gun and see 96.

Dennis (Wisconsin): What's your take on Josh Lowe? Is he a candidate to push up into top 5?
Hudson Belinsky: I’m a big fan of Josh Lowe. He has at least plus raw power, plus arm strength, and plus speed. The batted ball profile included a lot of high trajectory flies last summer, but he showed the ability to hit line drives in Jupiter at the WWBA World Championship. He’s off to a shaky start this spring, struggling against lefties and swinging and missing a bit too much. I don’t see him going that high, even if he turns a corner. Just a little too risky for a top 5 pick.

Hudson Belinsky: That’s all for me for today, folks. Thanks again for your great questions and supporting Baseball America. As always, feel free to drop me a line on Twitter (@hudsonbelinsky) any time and I’ll try to answer your questions.