Top 10 West Division Prospect Graduates With Updated BA Grades

Rankings and BA Grades developed with input from BA staff.

Baseball America follows prospects from the amateur ranks until they reach the major leagues, but then we tend to forget about them as we focus on the next wave of prospects.

We remedy that oversight in this space, where we rank the top 10 graduated prospects—you know them better as rookies—from the two West divisions in 2022.

Each prospect is listed with his preseason BA Grade and then his updated BA Grade based on what happened in 2022. Each player is graded on the 20-80 scouting scale, where 50 is average. Risk is also assessed on a scale of Low, Medium, High, Very High or Extreme.

1. Julio Rodriguez, OF, Mariners
Preseason: 75/Medium
Updated: 75/Low

All-star. Rookie of the Year. Seventh in American League MVP balloting. Rarely is a rookie as productive as Rodriguez was in 2022, much less a 21-year-old rookie. His 147 OPS+ ranks 14th among qualified rookies since integration, and the only players as young or younger than Rodriguez were Mike Trout (168) and Albert Pujols (157). Throw in solid defense in center field, a strong throwing arm and better-than-expected speed and Rodriguez is a franchise player, potentially an all-timer. 2023 Age: 22

2. George Kirby, RHP, Mariners
Preseason: 70/High
Updated: 70/Medium

Kirby doesn’t have one truly outstanding wipeout pitch. But he throws hard—his 95.2 mph velocity ranked 23rd among starters with 100 innings—and leans on veteran-level savvy and feel for six pitch types to keep hitters guessing. To that end, Kirby’s advanced metrics such as FIP and K-BB% were on par with wily veterans such as Shane Bieber and Zac Gallen. If he continues at this pace, he has a No. 2 starter floor. 2023 Age: 25

3. Reid Detmers, LHP, Angels
Preseason: 55/Medium
Updated: 55/Low

Detmers no-hit the Rays in May but didn’t truly shine consistently until after he learned to de-emphasize his fastball and tune up his slider and changeup usage. In his final 13 starts of the season he recorded a 3.04 ERA with 78 strikeouts, 25 walks and two home runs allowed in 71 innings. Detmers looks like a rock-solid No. 3 starter. 2023 Age: 23

4. Jeremy Peña, SS, Astros
Preseason: 55/High
Updated: 60/Medium

Peña was up to the challenge of succeeding Astros franchise icon Carlos Correa. He produced at an average rate during the season, won a Gold Glove at shortstop and delivered a series of key hits in the postseason that made him MVP of both the AL Championship Series and World Series. What does Peña have left to prove? Improving his chase rate—fifth-worst 41% as a rookie—and on-base percentage are top priorities. 2023 Age: 25

5. Andres Muñoz, RHP, Mariners
Preseason: 55/Extreme
Updated: 55/Low

The Mariners traded for Muñoz in August 2020 while he was rehabbing from Tommy John surgery he had that spring. Seattle had to wait until 2022 to truly get Muñoz back on the mound. The wait was worth it. Muñoz ranked fourth among qualified relievers with a 38.7% strikeout rate, fifth with a 42% chase rate and second only to Jhoan Duran with an average fastball velocity of 100.2 mph. Like Duran, he has all-star closer upside. 2023 Age: 24

6. Camilo Doval, RHP, Giants
Preseason: 50/High
Updated: 50/Low

Doval exhausted his rookie eligibility in 2021 but barely kept his prospect status for BA ranking purposes. His profile is one of extremes: 99 mph velocity, 56% ground balls, too many walks and a 1.24 WHIP that was fifth-highest among 20-save closers in 2022. Because of his lower arm slot, Doval has platoon issues and allowed lefthanded hitters to bat .261 and reach base 37% of the time. 2023 Age: 25

7. Matt Brash, RHP, Mariners
Preseason: 60/High
Updated: 50/Medium

Brash got lit up as a starter, allowing 17 runs in 20 innings to begin the season. He spent the next two months in Triple-A and emerged in early July as a dominant—43 strikeouts in 30.2 innings—but wild—16 walks, 1.24 WHIP—reliever for Seattle. As his control improves, Brash should settle in as a reliable high-leverage reliever. 2023 Age: 25

8. Shea Langeliers, C, Athletics
Preseason: 55/High
Updated: 50/Medium

Catchers generally require a longer growth period to reach maturity in MLB. That may be the case for Langeliers, who turned in a high-power, low-contact debut typical of young catchers. Langeliers has upside as a solid-average catcher who throws well, frames well and produces offense around the league average. 2023 Age: 25

9. Ezequiel Duran, 3B, Rangers
Preseason: 50/High
Updated: 50/Medium

Duran has a broad set of skills that could come to the fore if he can clean up his plate approach. He can impact the ball. He can run. He can throw. But his prospect scouting report indicated a weakness to breaking pitches, and he saw one of the highest rates of sliders in MLB as a rookie, while his 42% chase rate overall ranked in the 10th percentile. 2023 Age: 24

10. Alek Thomas, OF, D-backs
Preseason: 55/Medium
Updated: 50/Medium

Thomas proved two things in his debut season. First, he is an outstanding defensive center fielder who received a finalist nod for the Gold Glove and may keep Corbin Carroll in left field. But Thomas also proved that his bat needs work after posting one of the highest groundball rates and lowest isolated slugging percentages in baseball. 2023 Age: 23

MORE GRADUATES

50/Medium Risk
Joey Bart, C, Giants
Robert Suarez, RHP, Padres

50/High Risk
Cristian Pache, OF, Athletics
Geraldo Perdomo, SS, D-backs

45/Low Risk
AJ Puk, LHP, Athletics

45/Medium Risk
Nick Allen, SS, Athletics
Luis Gonzalez, OF, Giants
Glenn Otto, RHP, Rangers
Elehuris Montero, 3B, Rockies
Josh Smith, 3B, Rangers
David Villar, 3B, Giants

45/High Risk
Kevin Smith, 3B, Athletics
Bubba Thompson, OF, Rangers

40/Low Risk
Tommy Henry, LHP, D-backs
Emmanuel Rivera, 3B, D-backs
JP Sears, LHP, Athletics