Top 10 MLB Free Agent Outfielders For 2025
Image credit: Juan Soto (Photo by Tom DiPace)
October baseball is in the air, meaning the offseason isn’t far behind. We’re identifying the top MLB free agents teams could target this winter by taking a data-driven approach to this year’s crop of players. We will release new position groups in the coming days.
Below, you can find our breakdown of the top 10 free agent first basemen and designated hitters in the 2025 class, including three-year season averages in several key metrics.
Our list leverages work from MLB Trade Rumors for the list of free agents, as well as FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus and Baseball Reference for player win values above baseline, Baseball Savant and Baseball Prospectus for defensive data and FanGraphs for all other data. We encourage our readers and subscribers to consider subscribing to FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus, as well.
1. Juan Soto
Soto keeps on getting better.
He’s hitting the ball harder than ever with elite plate discipline and elite contact skills and increasing his average launch angle just enough, leading to a career-high barrel rate and a career high in home runs. In his seven-year career, which includes his age-19 rookie season, Soto has posted a wRC+ of at least 143 in each season. He has drawn at least 129 walks in four consecutive seasons, and has now drawn more walks than strikeouts in five consecutive seasons.
How big of a contract will Soto get? Before the season, I predicted that Soto will sign with the Yankees for 15 years, $701 million dollars (please ignore my other bold predictions). I think that’s roughly what he’ll get in free agency, and I think there is almost no chance the Yankees let him walk. There are very few players in baseball for whom you can expect a six-win floor for at least the next three seasons, and any team that’s looking to win a World Series is going to want to sign him.
As with the infamous ‘Arson Judge’ moment, when it temporarily looked like the Yankees slugger was going to San Francisco, I think New York will do whatever it takes to sign him. And I think that number will be $1 million more than what Shohei Ohtani received.
2. Teoscar Hernandez
The Dodgers knew what they were doing when they signed Hernandez, and he has more than delivered for them, betting on himself with the one year deal. While there’s definitely swing-and-miss in his game and some questions about his defense, he more than makes up for it with the bat.
3. Tyler O’Neill
Perhaps it was Boston’s bat speed training program, or perhaps it was finally getting healthy again, but O’Neill is hitting the ball incredibly hard. And he’s doing it at optimal launch angles, all with 89th percentile bat speed. If we could comfortably project him for 600 plate appearances a year, he’d probably be second on this list. As it is, this is what an elite quality of contact merchant looks like:
We see well below-average zone contact and terrible out-of-zone contact, but 70-grade raw power in his 90th percentile exit velocities, which plays up due to a 20-degree average launch angle. He crushes any pitch type that he makes contact with, especially sliders and curveballs.
4. Jurickson Profar
Raise your hand if you saw a 4-5 win season coming from Profar.
What’s particularly intriguing is it came along with a substantial increase in exit velocities. For basically a decade, he sat in the 86-87 mph average exit velocity range. This year, it was all the way up to 91 mph. His 90th percentile exit velocities went from around 102 mph which is roughly 40 grade raw power, all the way to 105 mph , which is closer to 55-grade raw. The average EV of his top 50% of batted balls is up from 97 last year, all the way up to 101 this year. His Surplus EV (how much he exceeds 88 mph on average) is up 2.3 mph. No matter how you slice his exit velocities, they are up, and up by a substantial amount.
What that means is that Profar made a real, substantial, measurable change. You can’t luck into the kind of exit velocity increases that Profar had, and players usually decline, not increase, by over three mph. Let’s dig a little deeper into his underlying metrics:
That’s as close to a perfect hitter as you are going to see. He has the rare combination of avoiding chase at a well above-average rate, while still being aggressive in the zone. He makes a ton of zone contact, almost near an elite 90%, as well as close to 70% when he chases out-of-zone. He’s now impacting the ball at an above average rate. Part of that is a significant increase in bat speed, as per Tom Tango of MLB:
When I sat down to write Profar, I had him as the seventh-ranked outfielder, as his season-to-season performance smelled like a complete fluke. The data, especially those exit velocities (no matter which EV metric you use), suggest that he’s potentially right up there with O’Neill and Hernandez, and has finally lived up to the prospect hype about a decade later than we thought he would.
5. Anthony Santander
Look at those launch angles. If you’re averaging close to 22 degrees and your 90th percentile exit velocities are around 106 mph, you’re going to hit 30 or so home runs every year. Some times, you get a magical season and you hit 44. His contact quality this year was not meaningfully different than it was the past couple of seasons, so it’s more likely that he’s closer to 30 homers next season. That’s still a very productive player, even with subpar defense.
6. Cody Bellinger
It’s unclear if Bellinger will opt out and test free agency again. However, as the clear-cut best center fielder available, he stands to do well in this year’s class.
Often when we write up a guy coming off a season like Bellinger had in 2022, then the massive season he had in 2023, we’ll say something like “He’s not as bad as was in 2022, but probably not as good as he was in 2023 either.” And then you get pretty much the season he had in 2024. If you assume something like $10M per win as a heuristic, he stands to make somewhere in the $20-25 million per year range, depending on how many teams are looking for a center fielder. He has an option for two years at around that amount, so he may choose to opt in.
7. Max Kepler
Kepler’s ability to avoid chase disappeared this year, which puts a huge damper on his market. His top-end exit velocities remained strong, as well as his ability to make contact on in-zone pitches, but he went from a league-average swing rate, to 52% swing rate, increasing his zone swing rate and chase rates by four and six percent, respectively. Given that the rest of the profile remained stable, it stands to reason that he’ll get back to where he was in previous years: a solid hitter with a floor of a 94 wRC+ and the upside for a 120 wRC+ season, all with above average defense in right field. He’s not going to be an exciting sign for whichever team gets him, but he’s a good bet to help the team does.
8. Harrison Bader
Bader presents elite center field defense, combined with just enough offense equates to a pretty valuable player. The challenge with Bader has always been health, as he’s never had a season with even 450 plate appearances. This free agent class is very thin at center field, especially if Bellinger does not opt out of his deal, so Bader stands to get a nice contract. He’s a low-risk sign for any team, as his glove will provide value no matter what.
9. Alex Verdugo
Some players wilt under the pressure of playing for the Yankees, and perhaps that’s what happened to Verdugo this year, but the more-likely explanation is random variation. When you don’t hit the ball very hard, your production can vary quite a bit, as evidenced by his .252 BABIP on the season, which is about 50 points below his career norm. I think he signs somewhere that’s a bit more low-pressure than the Bronx and returns to his previous form as a roughly average player. If he does, Verdugo could be a good free agent value given the very poor surface stats.
10. Jesse Winker
What a wonderful comeback story. After battling injuries for years, the Nationals gave Winker a shot, and he more than delivered:
Winker is exceptional at avoiding chase. Most guys with pristine chase rates such as Winker usually get there by just swinging less, including on in-zone pitches. Winker does indeed swing less in-zone than average, but he’s aggressive on fastballs in the zone, which shows great pitch recognition. He has fringy power, and the 18th percentile bat speed is worrisome, but the patience and contact skills will keep the profile afloat for a little while.
