Top 10 Graduating National League Prospects In The Class of 2024

1. Paul Skenes, RHP, Pirates

• 2025 Age: 23
• Preseason Grade/Risk: 65/High
• Updated Grade/Risk: 80/Medium
• Upside Role: No. 1 starter

As much as we loved Skenes heading into 2024, we were way too light. His 99 mph fastball and mid-80s slider created a foundation for ace status. But Skenes went over the top in his brilliant rookie season by broadening his attack to include a 94 mph sinker—or “splinker” because of his split-finger grip—curveball, sweeper and changeup. That level of dominance and unpredictability resulted in a season with few equals among pitchers so young. His 1.96 ERA was tops for any pitcher with at least 120 innings in 2024, while his 214 adjusted-ERA+ is the second-best mark since integration for a pitcher 22 or younger. Only one rookie ever has bettered his 26.8 K-BB% in so many innings. With continued health, Skenes could front a championship rotation.

2. Jackson Chourio, OF, Brewers

• 2025 Age: 21
• Preseason Grade/Risk: 70/High
• Updated Grade/Risk: 70/Medium
• Upside Role: Franchise OF

Chourio did things that are seldom done. He is the third 20-year-old to go 20-20, and the first to do it without turning 21 during the season. He batted first or second in the Brewers’ postseason lineup and wowed with a two-home run game. His .914 OPS in the second half ranked 12th in MLB. Chourio has all five tools and is poised to be a star.

3. James Wood, OF, Nationals

• 2025 Age: 22
• Preseason Grade/Risk: 65/High
• Updated Grade/Risk: 70/High
• Upside Role: Perennial All-Star LF

When the Nationals traded Juan Soto to the Padres in 2022, the return was commonly framed around first-rounders CJ Abrams and MacKenzie Gore. History might disagree. Wood shredded Triple-A competition for the first half of 2024, ascended to being the No. 1 prospect in the game and then rose to Washington on July 1. He showed stellar bat speed, hard-hit data and swing decisions in MLB. As his strikeout rate decreases, his output will increase.

4. Jackson Merrill, OF, Padres

• 2025 Age: 22
• Preseason Grade/Risk: 60/High
• Updated Grade/Risk: 65/Medium
• Upside Role: Perennial All-Star CF

The seventh high school shortstop drafted in a 2021 first round overflowing with them, Merrill vaulted to the front of the line with a spectacular rookie season. The 21-year-old adapted quickly to center field and showed a knack for impact and timely hitting. Merrill’s youth, offensive production and defensive skill point to a bright future.

5. Spencer Schwellenbach, RHP, Braves

• 2025 Age: 25
• Preseason Grade/Risk: 50/High
• Updated Grade/Risk: 60/Medium
• Upside Role: No. 3 Starter

Schwellenbach worked as a two-way player at Nebraska, had Tommy John surgery after being drafted in 2021 and made just 24 minor league starts over two seasons. That didn’t prevent him from stepping up as a key rotation piece for the Braves. Schwellenbach works fast, throws strikes, misses bats and suppresses hard contact. He fields his position well and allowed just five stolen base attempts in 21 starts. He has a well-rounded profile and quality stuff. If he learns to contain lefthanded hitters better, he potentially has another level to reach.

6. Jared Jones, RHP, Pirates

• 2025 Age: 23
• Preseason Grade/Risk: 55/High
• Updated Grade/Risk: 60/High
• Upside Role: No. 3 Starter

A right lat strain interrupted Jones’ rookie season for eight weeks, but flashes of brilliance on either side of the injury point to his upside. He came out firing in April, relying on a 97 mph fastball and power slider, but his effectiveness waned as opponents saw him in subsequent at-bats and as the season progressed. Jones’ foundation is strong, and he needs to look no further than teammate Paul Skenes on how to build off a fastball/slider repertoire.

7. Masyn Winn, SS, Cardinals

• 2025 Age: 23
• Preseason Grade/Risk: 55/Medium
• Updated Grade/Risk: 55/Medium
• Upside Role: First-division SS

Winn is who we thought he was. As a 22-year-old rookie, he proved to be a reliable defender with a top-of-the-scale arm. He started the season at the bottom of the Cardinals’ order but spent most of the year leading off. Winn finished as a top 10 shortstop by some metrics and has room to grow into more power and improve his on-base ability.

8. Pete Crow-Armstrong, OF, Cubs

• 2025 Age: 23
• Preseason Grade/Risk: 55/Medium
• Updated Grade/Risk: 55/Medium
• Upside Role: First-division CF

Crow-Armstrong will win a Gold Glove one day. He has demonstrated that sort of wizardry in center field. All he needs to do is continue hitting as he did in the second half of his rookie season to ensure he stays in the lineup. Crow-Armstrong defends, throws and runs with the best of them, and if he can produce at a league-average rate—or near to it—he can contribute to a winning team.

9. Michael Busch, 1B, Cubs

• 2025 Age: 27
• Preseason Grade/Risk: 55/High
• Updated Grade/Risk: 50/Low
• Upside Role: Solid-average 1B

Buried on the Dodgers’ depth chart, Busch ran with his chance to play every day following a trade to the Cubs. He anchored first base in Chicago and provided above-average offensive production keyed by a strong walk rate and solid-average power. A bat is all Busch brings, and he’s already in his prime years, so a little more power—he hit 21 homers and slugged .440—would go a long way.

10. Kyle Harrison, LHP, Giants

• 2025 Age: 23
• Preseason Grade/Risk: 55/Medium
• Updated Grade/Risk: 55/Medium
• Upside Role: No. 3 of 4 starter

Few starting pitchers threw a higher rate of four-seam fastballs than Harrison did in 2024. Despite modest velocity, the pitch generates many whiffs because of its tailing life. He successfully worked in a changeup to combat righthanded hitters and got good results. Overall, Harrison’s stuff was less effective the second time through the order, and his overall pitch quality and location lagged later in his rookie season. Maintaining his effectiveness will allow him to take the next step.

20 More Names To Know

We go beyond the top 10 to highlight 20 more graduating National League prospects.

55/Medium Risk
• Tobias Myers, RHP, Brewers

55/High Risk
• Ben Brown, RHP, Cubs
• Gavin Stone, RHP, Dodgers

50/Low Risk
• Joey Ortiz, 3B, Brewers
• Justin Martinez, RP, Diamondbacks

50/Medium Risk
• Heliot Ramos, OF, Giants
• Landon Knack, RHP, Dodgers
• DJ Herz, LHP, Nationals

50/High Risk
• Xavier Edwards, SS, Marlins
• Hayden Birdsong, RHP, Giants
• Andy Pages, OF, Dodgers
• Victor Scott II, OF, Cardinals
• Connor Norby, 3B, Marlins

50/Very High Risk
• Jordan Beck, OF, Rockies
• Noelvi Marte, 3B, Reds

45/Low Risk
• Tyler Fitzgerald, SS, Giants
• Garrett Mitchell, OF, Brewers
• Orion Kerkering, RP, Phillies
• Mitchell Parker, LHP, Nationals

45/Medium Risk
• Ivan Herrera, C, Cardinals