Three Promising Young MLB Hitters To Watch In The Final Month Of The Season
In April, we profiled some young hitters showing encouraging signs in limited samples. Today, we’ll follow a similar format, highlighted by two surging rookies and a second-year bat who looks like a foundational piece for the rebuilding Angels.
Tyler Fitzgerald, SS/OF, Giants
The 26-year-old has burst onto the scene in the second half of 2024, swatting 12 homers and swiping seven bases in 28 games since the All-Star break. During this stretch, Fitzgerald ranks top 10 in batting average, top 20 in OBP and top six in slugging percentage. Only Jake Burger has hit more home runs than Fitzgerald over that time, while only American League MVP favorites Aaron Judge and Bobby Witt Jr. have accrued more fWAR.
From July 9th (pre-All-Star break) through July 27th, Fitzgerald hit a memorable eight homers in just 10 games played, becoming the first Giants player to do so since Barry Bonds in 2004:
Normally, this would be the end of the story for a player who peaked at No. 28 in the Giants’ 2020 organization prospect rankings.
However, since that homer run tear, Fitzgerald is still slashing .304/.341/.557 with five homers and seven steals in 19 games. This “regression” suggests he wasn’t just a two-week wonder. Which begs the question: How is Fitzgerald doing this?
A quick look at Fitzgerald’s Baseball Savant page shows that he has pulled most of his home runs.
Among hitters with at least 50 fly balls this season, Fitzgerald ranks t-11th in pull rate at 40%. While not quite at Isaac Paredes’ 45% threshold this year, Fitzgerald is surrounded by pull-happy names such as Adam Duvall, Rhys Hoskins and Anthony Santander.
Pulling fly balls is one way to outperform your expected stats. Among players with at least 100 balls in play, nobody has a larger difference between their xwOBA and their actual wOBA than Fitzgerald. However, the other two players inside the top 80 of the differential leaderboard who have at least a .400 wOBA are good company: Royce Lewis and Rafael Devers.
This analysis has mostly described how Fitzgerlad got to this point. It remains to be seen how pitchers begin adjusting and if the rookie can adjust back. The Giants are counting on him to do so. After playing sparingly to begin the summer, Fitzgerald has started 28 straight games entering this week. He’s done so while operating as the team’s everyday shortstop, a position San Francisco desperately needs in a post-Brandon Crawford era. Fitzgerald’s plus defense at the position has boosted his WAR total, potentially forcing his way into the National League Rookie of the Year race.
James Wood, OF, Nationals
There’s going to be a lot of James Wood hype entering the 2025 Major League Baseball season.
Since he debuted too late to join the NL ROY discussion, and the Nationals are no longer competing for a postseason spot, the conversation around Wood is relatively muted compared to what it will be by spring training next year.
Through 42 big league games entering Monday, the 21-year-old is slashing .284/.373/.458 (135 wRC+) with five homers and six steals. He’s been even better lately, posting a 196 wRC+ during August, which ranks eighth among all MLB hitters. After posting a 33% strikeout rate in July, he’s down to 26% this month to go along with an improved walk rate.
The key has been a massive reduction in chasing outside the zone:
While a .459 BABIP during the month of August isn’t sustainable, it’s encouraging to see such quick adjustments from a hitter his age.
Something Wood needs to continue working on is lifting the ball. His 56% ground ball rate is the seventh-highest in the majors among players with at least 170 plate appearances.
Somewhat troublingly, it took until Sunday for him to finally pull a fly ball. Still, given his age and prospect pedigree, Wood’s to-date success might also be considered even more impressive, given that he has yet to optimize his batted balls.
Additional comfort lies in the fact that, among all major league hitters with 100 or more balls in play, Wood’s average exit velocity ranks fifth:
Hitting the ball hard on the ground can help lead to an inflated BABIP, so unless Wood starts pulling in the air at an extreme rate, there’s a chance this stretch could be the high-water mark of his rookie campaign.
Even with only modest improvement in his pulled fly ball rate, Wood can finish strong by continuing his swing decision improvement. If he checks those boxes, he’ll be an easy 22-year-old breakout pick entering spring training.
Zach Neto, SS, Angels
While the Angels trudge through another summer without Mike Trout, there have at least been a few bright spots between Neto and Logan O’Hoppe.
Neto debuted in April of last year after spending just 44 games in the minors (and none at Triple-A). The results were about what one would expect for a young hitter acclimating to the majors: .225/.308/.377 with nine homers and five steals across 84 games.
In 2024, Neto started slowly through his first 101 PAs, posting a 76 wRC+ without signaling much improvement. Since then, he has 16 homers, 18 stolen bases and a greatly-reduced K% to go along with a 133 wRC+. Rotisserie fantasy managers have appreciated the power-speed contributions, though the Angels must also be quite happy with his development.
Interestingly, Neto’s swing decisions and batted-ball profile haven’t undergone major overhauls since 2023. Instead, his slash line improvements stem from better results on contact: 357 xwOBAcon in 2023 vs. .393 in 2024
Perhaps those numbers are the result of improving against a specific pitch. Last season, Neto had a negative run value against sliders. Thus far in 2024, only two other qualified hitters have been as productive against sliders, per Baseball Savant:
Neto’s still working on his all-around game, with a 19th percentile Outs Above Average and seven caught stealing attempts. If he’s able to get better in those areas to begin 2025, we could be witnessing the seeds of an All-Star campaign.`
