Three MLB Teams Poised For Improvement In 2025
Image credit: Jackson Jobe (Photo/Ryan Dowd/TDP)
Youth isn’t everything when it comes to projecting future MLB success. But it can count for a lot.
Teams that feature several young position players gaining experience and coalescing into a core in one season can take a big step forward the next.
In 2022, the Orioles had six hitters age 25-and-under who batted at least 100 times, a group that included Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman and Ryan Mountcastle. The following season they won 101 games and the American League East.
The 2022 Diamondbacks featured 25U position players Corbin Carroll, Geraldo Perdomo, Alek Thomas and others. The 2023 club won the National League pennant.
The team that most resembles those examples this season is the Royals. The 2023 club featured young regulars such as Bobby Witt Jr., Vinnie Pasquantino, Maikel Garcia, Michael Massey and others. Now buttressed by offseason signings and trade deadline pickups, the 2024 Royals are poised to make the postseason for the first time in nearly a decade.
While the success of those clubs is not solely attributable to their young position cores, it is also true that locking in a reliable stable of young everyday players who contribute on both sides of the ball reduces a team’s variability and increases its financial flexibility.
No team of recent vintage proved this better than the Astros.
In 2014, Houston counted Jose Altuve and George Springer as 24-year-old regulars. In 2015, the Astros added Carlos Correa to the lineup. A year later, they added Alex Bregman.
With such a high-quality, cost-controlled core in place, the Astros had fewer lineup holes to fill and more available payroll to acquire veteran players. No acquisitions illustrate this better than trades for key pitchers Justin Verlander in 2017, Gerrit Cole in 2018 and Zack Greinke in 2019.
Houston won the 2017 and 2022 World Series and reached the AL Championship Series a record seven seasons in a row between 2017 and 2023. During that run, the Astros relied on many familiar faces, while incorporating new ones along the way, such as Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker and Framber Valdez.
Let’s face it: No team is likely to reach the same heights that the Astros reached. But there are a number of young MLB teams this season that are logical candidates to take a big step forward in 2025 based on the 25-and-under hitting talent they have on hand and the minor league reinforcements they have on the way.
Safety in numbers is a concept that applies to player development. The more options a team has, the more successful it is likely to be.
Nationals
No team this season has had more plate appearances by players who are 25 years old or younger than Washington. Scroll to the bottom table for complete details.
Better still, the Nationals’ 25U cohort has been one of the most productive. Their approximate total of 11 bWAR from 25U hitters trails only the Yankees, Brewers and Orioles. Caveat: The Yankees’ total is driven by Juan Soto, who is still just 25.
It’s not difficult to envision the Nationals taking a step forward in 2025 based on the quality of a young core that includes shortstop CJ Abrams, second baseman Luis Garcia and outfielders James Wood and Dylan Crews. Center fielder Jacob Young, catcher Keibert Ruiz and trade pickups Andres Chaparro and Jose Tena also rate as 25U position players who can provide value.
Some parts of this tweet from two years ago ring ring true:
Just as importantly for the Nationals’ future success is the fact that the organization appears to have figured something out with its rotation.
Washington starting pitchers ranked 29th in FIP in 2023. This season they rank ninth, in no small part because of improvements by MacKenzie Gore and the debuts of Mitchell Parker and DJ Herz.
Tigers
Detroit has played well in the second half, indicating that it won’t be long before the organization emerges from its lengthy rebuild. A winning season would be the Tigers’ second in the past 10 seasons. And with a Cy Young Award-caliber ace in Tarik Skubal and all-star right fielder in Riley Greene, the Tigers have a strong foundation.
Just as crucially, they have strength in numbers. Not every one of the Tigers’ young position players will meet expectations, which is why it’s better to have depth to weather the inevitable attrition.
Some of the promising young players who have gained reps this year—and experienced winning in the second half—are second baseman Colt Keith, center fielder Parker Meadows, third baseman Jace Jung, first baseman Spencer Torkelson and shortstop Trey Sweeney, who was a key to the Jack Flaherty deal with the Dodgers.
Right fielder Kerry Carpenter misses the age cutoff by one year but looks like a dependable bat.
Catcher Dillon Dingler, outfielder Wenceel Perez and DH Justyn-Henry Malloy are other 25U hitters who have also featured for the 2024 Tigers but have less certain roles going forward.
If righthander and No. 1 prospect Jackson Jobe can integrate into a rotation fronted by Skubal, Reese Olson and potentially Casey Mize and Keider Montero, then the Tigers could be legitimate postseason contenders in 2025.
Red Sox
The Red Sox have been relevant more recently than the Nationals or Tigers, but the club finished under .500 in 2022 and 2023 and is trending toward a similar record this season.
The key for Boston will be improving its middle-of-the-pack rotation, because its projects to have enough offensive firepower to contend in the rugged American League East next season.
Right fielder Wilyer Abreu and shortstop/center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela are notable rookies this season. First baseman Triston Casas finished third in AL Rookie of the Year voting in 2023 but has missed a lot of time this season on the injured list. Second baseman Vaughn Grissom will also be looking for a rebound after a lost season.
Veteran stars Rafael Devers and Jarren Duran are in their prime, even though they fall outside the 25U age parameters.
But the keys to future Red Sox contention are on the farm, especially at Triple-A Worcester. Outfielder Roman Anthony and second baseman Kristian Campbell have been two of the most productive minor league hitters this season, as well as wild draft success stories. The former is a late second-round pick out of high school; the latter is a 2023 fourth-rounder out of Georgia Tech who did not rank on Boston’s preseason Top 30 Prospects.
Shortstop Marcelo Mayer and catcher Kyle Teel team with Anthony and Campbell at Triple-A and offer defensive value even if they don’t hit MLB pitching right away.
One thing to watch is how the Red Sox will construct a lineup with so many key hitters batting from the left side, from Devers and Duran, to Casas and Abreu, to prospects Anthony, Mayer and Teel.
The Red Sox lead the majors in left-on-left plate appearances this season, with a .636 OPS in that split that ranks 21st. A lefthanded-heavy lineup is not a problem per se, but it can create lineup disruption with too many platoon situations or too many suboptimal matchups when facing lefthanded starters.
Other Noteworthy Teams
• The Cardinals have the second-most plate appearances by 25U hitters this season but just middle-of-the-pack results from the group.
Rookie shortstop Masyn Winn has been steady, while outfielder Alec Burleson has emerged as a contributor. A lot rests on second baseman Nolan Gorman rediscovering the 2023 form that made him a popular breakout pick this year and right fielder Jordan Walker turning his raw bat speed into results.
Other young hitters such as Victor Scott II, Ivan Herrera and Thomas Saggese are just getting their feet wet in 2024.
• The Brewers and Orioles stand tall for their ability to generate a lot of value from a small number of young, athletic position players who are 25 or younger.
For Milwaukee, the standouts are left fielder Jackson Chourio, second baseman Brice Turang, third baseman Joey Ortiz, right fielder Sal Frelick and center fielder Garrett Mitchell.
Baltimore leans on Henderson, left fielder Colton Cowser and third baseman Jordan Westburg, with second baseman Jackson Holliday and third baseman Coby Mayo on the horizon.
One other commonality between the Brewers and Orioles: William Contreras and Rutschman are 26-year-old catchers who are in their primes.
• For a team on pace to shatter the modern record for losses in a season, the White Sox have a low total of plate appearances by 25U hitters and are the only team with a negative bWAR value from that cohort this season.
Younger players such as catcher Korey Lee, second baseman Lenyn Sosa, second baseman Brooks Baldwin and third baseman Miguel Vargas account for most of the playing time. All have scuffled, in part perhaps because a lack of lineup support around them and the overall demoralizing effect of a season that has spiraled out of control.
Chicago’s farm system has shown signs of regrowth this year and will have to be key to a turnaround, though it’s hard to see that turnaround taking place in 2025 or 2026.
Performance By MLB Hitters Age 25 And Younger
| Team | PA | PA rank | bWAR | bWAR rank | top 3 players |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yankees | 2177 | 7 | 14.5 | 1 | Juan Soto, Anthony Volpe, Austin Wells |
| Brewers | 2253 | 5 | 13.9 | 2 | Brice Turang, Jackson Chourio, Joey Ortiz |
| Orioles | 1919 | 10 | 13.2 | 3 | Gunnar Henderson, Jordan Westburg, Colton Cowser |
| Nationals | 2769 | 1 | 11.1 | 4 | CJ Abrams, Jacob Young, Luis Garcia Jr. |
| Royals | 2080 | 8 | 9.2 | 5 | Bobby Witt Jr., Maikel Garcia, Nick Loftin |
| Blue Jays | 1967 | 9 | 8.8 | 6 | Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Alejandro Kirk, Leo Jimenez |
| Angels | 2180 | 6 | 8.3 | 7 | Zach Neto, Logan O’Hoppe, Nolan Schanuel |
| D-backs | 1641 | 13 | 7.9 | 8 | Geraldo Perdomo, Corbin Carroll, Gabriel Moreno |
| Guardians | 2336 | 4 | 7.2 | 9 | Andres Gimenez, Brayan Rocchio, Bo Naylor |
| Tigers | 2547 | 3 | 5.6 | 10 | Riley Greene, Parker Meadows, Colt Keith |
| Cardinals | 2700 | 2 | 5.4 | 11 | Masyn Winn, Alec Burleson, Ivan Herrera |
| Padres | 1304 | 18 | 5.1 | 12 | Jackson Merrill, Fernando Tatis Jr., Eguy Rosario |
| Red Sox | 1407 | 16 | 4.9 | 13 | Wilyer Abreu, Ceddanne Rafaela, Triston Casas |
| Giants | 1660 | 12 | 4.3 | 14 | Heliot Ramos, Patrick Bailey, Grant McCray |
| Mets | 857 | 25 | 3.9 | 15 | Mark Vientos, Francisco Alvarez, Brett Baty |
| Cubs | 1282 | 19 | 3.7 | 16 | Pete Crow-Armstrong, Isaac Paredes, Miguel Amaya |
| Marlins | 780 | 26 | 3.6 | 17 | Otto Lopez, Xavier Edwards, Connor Norby |
| Rangers | 1433 | 15 | 3.5 | 18 | Wyatt Langford, Evan Carter, Ezequiel Duran |
| Astros | 772 | 27 | 3.3 | 19 | Yainer Diaz, Shay Whitcomb, Zach Dezenzo |
| Mariners | 708 | 28 | 3.1 | 20 | Julio Rodriguez, Ryan Bliss, Tyler Locklear |
| Athletics | 1380 | 17 | 2.8 | 21 | Lawrence Butler, Zack Gelof, Jacob Wilson |
| Reds | 1028 | 22 | 2.6 | 22 | Elly De La Cruz, Christian Encarnacion, Noelvi Marte |
| Rays | 1266 | 20 | 2.3 | 23 | Jonny DeLuca, Junior Caminero, Christopher Morel |
| Braves | 865 | 24 | 2.1 | 24 | Michael Harris II, Jarred Kelenic, Nacho Alvarez |
| Phillies | 517 | 29 | 1.4 | 25 | Johan Rojas, Rafael Marchan |
| Rockies | 1700 | 11 | 1.0 | 26 | Ezequiel Tovar, Michael Toglia, Drew Romo |
| Dodgers | 490 | 30 | 1.0 | 27 | Andy Pages |
| Pirates | 1461 | 14 | 0.3 | 28 | Oneil Cruz, Nick Gonzales, Jack Suwinski |
| Twins | 934 | 23 | 0.2 | 29 | Royce Lewis, Brooks Lee, Edouard Julien |
| White Sox | 1077 | 21 | -1.7 | 30 | Jacob Amaya, Brooks Baldwin, Korey Lee |
