These 10 Pitching Prospects Emerged As Unlikely Breakouts In 2024
Image credit: Nationals RHP Jarlin Susana (Photo by Tom Priddy/Four Seam Images)
Pitching breakouts come from the damnedest of places and rarely from the players we expect.
We often fall in love with the loud spring performer, or the high-upside prep who signed for overslot money later in the draft. But instead, breakouts often come from older pitchers who have figured something out. It could be a new pitch, added velocity, a new plan of attack or even a change in pitch usage.
The unpredictable nature of baseball and player development makes following the game, and more specifically prospects, a fun guessing game. Among the 10 pitchers discussed today, few people outside of their own families would have pegged them for potential future stardom. Yet they are all among the best minor league performers in 2024.
Alejandro Rosario, RHP, Rangers
It’s remarkable what a small tweak in usage can do for pitchers coming into professional baseball out of college. Rosario is one such case, as a drop in fastball usage has led to a substantial improvement in results.
While at Miami, Rosario used his fastball 68% of the time in 2023. That number has dropped to 54% since making his pro debut. Rosario is still fastball-dominant, but he’s becoming far less predictable with the pitch. It doesn’t hurt that Rosario has two secondaries that have average or better stuff that play off of his fastball.
Rosario has generated high rates of chase swings against both his slider (39.1%) and changeup (38.9%), helping to boost the swing-and-miss numbers and overall results. There’s potentially some tunneling effects going on. Both pitches have strong vertical separation off of his fastball, though the release heights vary slightly. Rosario fastball shape is below-average on its face, with equal vertical and horizontal movement. When you dig deeper, you see his 5-foot-4 fastball release height creates a flatter plane of approach. This allows the power and above-average armside run to play.
Rosario has an interesting arsenal, he’s throwing consistent strikes and generating swings and misses. This looks like a legitimate breakout.
K.C. Hunt, RHP, Brewers
The Brewers seem to do the best job of any organization of turning college relievers into potential starting pitching prospects. Hunt spent four seasons in Mississippi State’s bullpen before signing with the Brewers as a nondrafted free agent in 2023. Hunt has leaned into his slider usage as a professional and it has yielded great results.
After beginning the season as a reliever in Low-A, Hunt was promoted to High-A Wisconsin and made three multi-inning relief appearances before joining the Timber Rattlers rotation on June 6. Since then, Hunt has made 11 starts across High-A and Double-A posting a 2.06 ERA, 2.70 FIP, with a 33.2% strikeout rate to a 5.8% walk rate. He’s showing the ability to go deep into starts despite limited starting experience. Over those 11 starts, Hunt has gone five or more innings in 10 of those games.
After using his fastball more than his slider in college, Hunt now most frequently deploys his slider. It’s slightly harder than it was in college, sitting 84-86 mph up from 81-83 mph at Mississippi State in 2023. Hunt’s slider is a pure gyro ball with high spin rates and late bite. Hunt’s fastball has good shape but below-average velocity and his curveball is a upper-70s downer curveball with depth.
Neither the fastball or curveball miss many bats, putting more focus on the slider. There’s a cutter mixed in that has shown solid results in limited usage. It’s an interesting development story but there’s some questions around how long this approach can work without an average or better second pitch.
Travis Sykora, RHP, Nationals
A few Nationals pitching prospects have turned in noteworthy performances (we’ll get to another below), but none more so than Sykora. The 6-foot-6 righty has a repeatable operation and has been arguably the top pitcher in the Low-A Carolina League. Over 18 starts spanning 78 innings, Sykora has a 2.13 ERA, 1.88 FIP and a 39.3% strikeout rate to a 7.7% walk rate.
Sykora has a true three-pitch mix made up of a four-seam fastball, a slider and a split changeup. The fastball is the standout pitch in Sykora’s arsenal sitting 94-95 mph touching 99 mph at peak. The pitch has just ordinary shape, plays up because of his above-average extension.
Sykora’s slider is his most-used secondary and is a good swing-and-miss pitch. The slider is a cutter style slider in the low-to-mid-80s that could add power in the coming years. Sykora’s splitter is his best-performing secondary with a swinging strike rate just below 30%. Batters also swing at his splitter most frequently, leading to lots of swings outside the zone and whiffs inside the zone.
Sykora’s size and feel for three above-average or better pitches make him one of the more high-upside breakouts of 2024.
Kohl Drake, LHP, Rangers
Drake fell flat in his 2023 professional debut, but has put together a nice 2024 campaign. He jumped three levels this season and reached Double-A, where he has struck out 37.2% of batters this season while holding opponents to a batting average of .199. Drake tossed six scoreless in his return to Double-A on Aug. 25 and should finish the season with Frisco.
Drake saw a velocity bump from his time in Juco, sitting 92-93 mph touching 96 mph at peak. A tall lefthander, Drake gets below-average extension on his fastball but does generate a solid amount of armside movement. The fastball sees a vast majority of Drake’s usage at around 55%. The rest are split between four secondaries: a curveball (13.8% usage), changeup (13.6% usage), slider (9.5% usage) and cutter (8.4% usage). All of his secondaries grade out at fringe-average or below, but he commands his fastball well, and mixes shapes keeping hitters off balance.
Drake has back-of-the-rotation or emergency starter upside. He likely lacks the fastball power or traits to sit in the middle of a big league rotation one day.
Ryan Lobus, RHP, Rangers
A 2023 nondrafted free agent from Mercer, Lobus was roughed up over two Arizona Complex League appearances in his debut that year. The Rangers assigned him to Low-A Down East out of camp this year, where he worked primarily as a multi-inning reliever. Lobus began to see more starts following a May 14 promotion to High-A Hickory. While a majority of Lobus’ outings are around four innings, he has shown the capacity to go longer.
Lobus is a true slider-first pitcher, throwing it more than 60% of the time. Lobus has two fastball shapes and combines to throw both only 28% of the time. Both pitches sit in the low 90s, but the two-seam shows some sink and run. Lobus also throws a splitter but it only generates fringy results.
Lobus’ slider generates most of his swings and misses with a 21% swinging strike rate. The slider is a classic low-80s sweeper and Lobus leans into its quality, showing advanced feel for the pitch. This likely won’t work as a starter as a professional, but Lobus could be an interesting multi-inning reliever with a signature pitch.
Trevor Harrison, RHP, Rays
Harrison was high school teammates with breakout Phillies prospect Aidan Miller. Harrison has enjoyed a breakout season in his own right, making eight strong appearances in the Florida Complex League before making the jump to Low-A on July 5.
The righthander has missed bats at a high rate across both levels, amassing a 14.2% swinging strike rate across all levels. He has struck out 28.5% of opposing batters but has been hittable at times, shown by his .252 batting average against. Some of that is bad luck and some of it is the predictability of Harrison’s pitch mix.
While Harrison’s mid-90s fastball has above-average stuff grades and solid results, he throws the pitch 70% of the time. This will likely iron itself out in time, as Harrison just turned 19 on Aug. 8 and his secondaries have shown average traits. Harrison’s mid-80s slider has gyro shape with slight cut, while his changeup has shown good velocity and vertical separation off of his fastball. He has toyed with a cutter as well but it has only been used sparingly.
Harrison has a starter’s build at 6-foot-4, 225 pounds but will need to show he can work deeper into starts in the coming years. Harrison is a young and exciting righthander with starter traits.
Carlson Reed, RHP, Pirates
A college reliever at West Virginia, the Pirates have deployed Reed as a starter in his first full pro season to strong results. He’s still getting acclimated to starting, but Reed has shown the ability to get deeper into outings, pitching into the fifth inning or later 11 times.
Reed mixes two fastball shapes at 92-93 mph with his two-seamer seeing the majority of the usage. Reed generates well above-average extension, helping to play up the downhill angle of his two-seamer. However, it’s the slider that is the primary weapon in Reed’s arsenal, generating whiffs at a greater than 50% rate. Reed’s slider is a harder sweeper at 83-85 mph with around a foot of sweep. While sweepers are often split dependent, Reed shows an above-average changeup that’s generated a 21.7% swinging strike rate against it.
Reed’s future as a starter is still uncertain, but his two-seam fastball generates ground balls at a 60% or better rate and he has two secondaries that drive whiffs. That profile can work in a variety of roles, it’s just a matter of Reed showing the ability to get through the order twice consistently.
Brandyn Garcia, LHP, Mariners
Signed in the 11th round out of Texas A&M in 2023, Garcia spent three seasons at Quinnipiac before transferring to Texas A&M. He worked exclusively as a reliever for the Aggies, and didn’t have particularly good results as an amateur with a 5.93 ERA across 148.2 collegiate innings. Garcia was drafted due to the quality and potential of his sinker and slider combination. This came to fruition in 2024, where Garcia has used his mid-90s sinker with true sink and heavy armside run to generate ground balls at a better than 60% rate this season.
His 85 mph slider is his primary swing-and-miss weapon and averages about 7-8 inches of sweep. Both Garcia’s sinker and slider grade out as above-average on Stuff+ models and his changeup, while infrequently used, has generated a similar groundball rate to his sinker.
A starter’s build at 6-foot-4 with a maxed out frame, Garcia has shown he can get deeper into starts during the middle part of this season. He’s been on a pitch count over the last month as his 104 innings this year are almost equal to his last two college seasons combined. The lefthander has the build stuff and ability to get whiffs and ground balls, Garcia has back-of-the-rotation upside.
Anderson Brito, RHP, Astros
Brito entered the year as a virtual unknown after signing out of Venezuela for just $10,000 during the 2023 international signing period. He has emerged as a true helium prospect.
Brito first dominated the Dominican Complex League before jumping stateside to the Florida Complex League for a scoreless four-inning performance. He was promoted again to Low-A Fayetteville, where he made six appearances to solid results. Brito has been limited to going through the order just about twice in each outing and has shown serious swing-and-miss skills, striking out 39.8% of batters across all levels.
His three-pitch mix gets strong Stuff+ grades across the board, but it’s his four-seam fastball that’s the current standout. Brito’s 95-96 mph fastball touches 99 with between 18-19 inches of ride and a flatter plane of approach. He generates serious power despite a smaller 5-foot-10 frame. His stature creates some concern–there are few MLB starters his size–and there are also questions about his current command execution of his secondaries.
Brito’s low-to-mid-80s sweeper slider grades out as well above-average on Stuff models, but has only produced average swing-and-miss numbers this season. His changeup is a work in progress but has gotten average results this season and is a part of his arsenal going forward. Brito made significant gains since signing and has the makings of a good three-pitch mix with a plus fastball.
His size and still-raw secondary command are working against him, but Brito is an interesting talent with big league potential.
Jarlin Susana, RHP, Nationals
Susana was a part of the Juan Soto return from the Padres. While he hasn’t reached the heights of James Wood, he’s a part of an exciting young crop of pitchers in the Nationals farm system.
Susana has long had elite power along his arsenal. In 2024, he’s commanding his stuff at a higher rate. The 6-foot-6 Susana has a career-low 11.2% walk rate this season with his highest strikeout rate since his professional debut, though in 2024 he’s thrown twice the innings. Susana has serious swing-and-miss stuff with two different fastball shapes sitting 99-100 mph touching as high as 103 mph this season. Susana has held the velocity deep into games as well, going five or more innings in 12 of his last 14 starts.
While Susana’s fastball velocity will capture your eyes and fix them to the radar gun readings, his slider is his best pitch. Sitting 88-90 mph touching 94-95 mph at peak, Susana’s cut-slider is thrown an equal amount to his fastballs and generates excellent results. Susana has generated swinging strikes at a rate of 24% against his slider this season with a high rate of chases as well. It’s proving to be a plus pitch per Stuff and the performance against it.
Susana also throws a firm low-90s changeup that has generated whiffs, though his command for the pitch comes and goes. Overall, Susana has turned a corner with the command of his plus stuff, allowing him to show deeper into outings. This was a big turn from a pitcher who looked headed to the bullpen last season. Susana now shows the traits of a future high octane midrotation starter.
