The Youngest Big Leaguers Keep Getting Older, Delaying Free Agency And Money-Making Opportunities

Image credit: Jackson Chourio (Photo by Keith Gillett/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Jackson Chourio made the Brewers roster as a just-turned 20-year-old. Wyatt Langford is a fixture in the Rangers’ lineup less than a year after he was drafted as a 22-year-old. Langford plays alongside 21-year-old Evan Carter. And Jackson Holliday, another 20-year-old, had a chance to play second base for the Orioles this month.

To many, it’s just further evidence that baseball keeps getting younger and younger, as players are pushed to the majors faster than ever.

Actually, the data shows the opposite.

Chourio became the second youngest position player to debut in the past decade, as only Juan Soto was younger. But if Chourio had come up in the 2000s, the 1990s, the 1980s, the 1970s or especially the 1960s, he wouldn’t have been all that unusual.

From 1961 to 1989, at least one teenage position player debuted in all but four seasons (1973, 1982, 1986 and 1987). In the 1960s, which marked the end of the bonus baby system, the arrival of the draft and included massive MLB expansion, there were 59 teenage position-player debuts.

In the 1970s, there were 19. In the 1980s, there were nine. In the 1990s the youngest position player debut did steadily get older, but we did still have plenty of teenagers like Ivan Rodriguez (1991), Alex Rodriguez (1994), Karim Garcia (1995), Andruw Jones (1996) and Adrian Beltre and Aramis Rodriguez (1998).

But in the 21st century, the teenage big league hitter is becoming a massive rarity. Since 2000, there have only been eight. And Soto is the only teenage position player to debut since 2013.

The age of the youngest position player debut has been on a steadily upward trend.

Considering how young pitchers’ workloads are very closely managed, it will probably not surprise many of you to learn that the age of the youngest pitcher to debut has also been on an upward trend, although Rule 5 pick Elvis Luciano’s debut did cause a one-year downward blip in 2019.

But those are the outliers. What about the average age when players debut. Maybe that’s getting younger while the youngest debutantes are getting older.

Nope.

The trend of average age for pitchers who debut is also climbing.

The average debut age for position players has increased by more than a year since the 1980s and nearly two years since the mid-1970s when baseball first adopted free agency.

That’s significant because it also means players are reaching free agency later, often after their peak seasons are behind them. Generally, a position player’s peak seasons have been viewed as being in the 26-28 range, but it could be simplified as being from 26 to 30.

There are exceptions to the rule, but you can generally add seven years to a player’s debut age to calculate when they will hit free agency, unless they make an Opening Day roster (and then add six years). Juan Soto debuted as a 19-year-old, and he will be a free agent going into his age-26 season. Willy Adames debuted as a 22-year-old, so he’ll be a free agent heading into his age-29 season this offseason. Pete Alonso made his debut as a 24-year-old who made an Opening Day roster. He’ll hit free agency before his age-30 season.

All of this matters for players and teams because the younger you are when you hit free agency, the more money you make. Soto will be one of the highest-paid players in free agency in years in part because he’s a remarkable hitter, but it will also be because whatever team signs him will be getting a player who should be rounding into his peak form. As good as Alonso is, a team signing a 30-year-old will do so with the expectation that his peak seasons are likely behind him.

All of this means that when the six years of service time before a player becomes an unrestricted free agent began in an era where the average player would reach free agency at age 29 or 30. And there were generally a significant number of players who would reach free agency significantly earlier than that.

Nowadays with the average position player debuting just before or after his 25th birthday, the average player won’t reach free agency until he’s 31 or 32.

If you think that big leaguers are getting younger and younger, you should have seen what the game looked like in the 1960s and 1970s. And do realize that it does mean that teams are getting more of players’ peaks before they hit free agency.