The List: Six Stats To Watch For 2016 Draftees

As teams prepare for the 2016 draft—which begins Thursday night—they are sorting through hundreds of scouting reports as well as massive amounts of statistical data. So to help prepare for the draft, this week’s The List looks at six interesting stats for potential 2016 draftees.

4 2/3 Innings
Average Length Of A.J. Puk’s Outings In 2016

If you are wondering how the potential No. 1 pick in the draft can have a record of 2-3 while playing for a team that has won 50 games, this is why.

Yes, we are aware that win-loss record is a very poor indicator of a pitcher’s success (or failure). But Puk’s 2-3 record is a good explanation of why a pitcher who might be the first overall pick didn’t even make his conference all-star team.

In seven of Puk’s 15 starts this season, he did not finish the fifth inning, so he’s only been eligible for wins in roughly half of his starts. Puk was pulled from one outing with back spasms and left another early with a stomach virus. But Puk’s last sub-five-inning start is less comforting for MLB teams. Pitching on extended rest and staked to a 5-2 lead against Connecticut, Puk gave all of the lead back with a three-run fifth inning that chased him from the game.

Puk has rarely pitched deep in games in any of his three seasons at Florida. His 7 1/3 innings against LSU on May 25 is the only time in his three years at Florida that he has pitched more than seven innings. Florida is careful to not overuse its pitchers, but Puk’s teammate Logan Shore had pitched more than seven innings on 10 different occasions.

Puk’s stuff is extremely impressive, but if you believe that an ace is a pitcher who pitches deep in a team’s biggest games, that’s something Puk will have to learn as a pro.

6.3 SO/9
Connor Jones’ Strikeout Rate

Jones has one of the lengthiest track records of any pitchers in this year’s draft. He was a prominent prospect coming out of high school–he was ranked 34th on the BA500—but fell to 21st round after he wrote a letter to all 30 teams telling them of his intention to go to Virginia.

Jones was one of the Cavaliers’ most reliable relievers as a freshman, became the team’s No. 2 starter and eventual ace after Nathan Kirby was injured and was a key reason Virginia won the national title last season with a 7-3, 3.19 in 18 starts.

And even this year, Jones was 11-1, 2.29 so it would appear that he was even better. But beneath the surface, Jones’ junior year actually caused concerns for scouts. His strikeout rate plummeted to 6.3 K/9, down from the 8.8 K/9 he compiled last year. His walk rate remains high (3.4 BB/9) and scouts are worried by how little command of his fastball Jones has demonstrated as the season has worn on.

Jones was once thought to be arguably the second-best college arm in this draft class. That’s not the case now.

4.4 Percent
Matt Thaiss’ Strikeout Rate

Thaiss rocketed up draft boards this season because he’s proven he’s one of the best pure hitters in this draft class. There are concerns about his defense behind the plate, but when it comes to his hitting, there are many fewer concerns.
Thaiss’ struck out 11 times in 254 plate appearances. He had almost as many home runs (nine) as strikeouts.

11.2 AB/HR
Kyle Lewis’ Home Run Rate

Lewis’ at-bats per home run did not lead the country (Wake Forest 3B/RHP Will Craig average a home run every 10.2 at-bats). But his power (he also had a .336 isolated power) is one of the main reasons Lewis will hear his named called very early on Thursday night.

Shortstop Pat Creech (second round, Expos, 1973), righthander Chris Collin (third round, Angels, 1985) and righthander Cory Gearrin (fourth round, Braves, 2007) are the only three Top-10-round picks in school history. Lewis will easily better that on Thursday.

.440
Zack Collins’ BABIP

Collins had a great season as a fixture in the middle of Miami’s lineup. He hit .381/.552/.642. His 1.197 OPS is one of the best marks in the country. But Collins’ offensive numbers are somewhat inflated by a very high batting average on balls in play–his BABIP ranks in the top 10 percent of all Division I BABIPs.

The biggest difference between Collins’ very good sophomore season (.305/.448/.594) and his outstanding junior season is his better fortune when he puts the ball in play–his .352 BABIP last season was still solid, but it carved nearly 90 points out of his batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage compared to this year. Yes, hitters control BABIP to some extent. But in a short college season, there is also a lot of noise that doesn’t get filtered out.

Other than the difference in BABIP, Collins’ peripheral numbers from last year to this year are similar. He did cut his strikeout rate from 20 percent to a still-high 18 percent and he’s significantly bumped his walk rate (18 percent to 27 percent of plate appearances). But Collins’ isolated power has actually dipped from .289 to .265.

If you want to find a draft prospect whose BABIP has taken a poorly timed plunge, take a look at Kentucky third baseman JaVon Shelby. He hit a dismal .228 this year. Shelby did struggle with his pull-heavy approach this year–his strikeout rate jumped from 20 percent of plate appearances to 27 percent. But his walk rate remained the same (15 percent). Shelby hit for more power (.296 isolated power compared to .213 in 2015) and the rest of his rate stats were right in line with what he did last year. The biggest difference? Last year, Shelby hit .378 when he put the ball in play, this year he hit only .265 on balls in play, which was one of the worst rates in Division I. That’s the biggest reason Shelby went from hitting .312/.442/.525 to hitting .228/.367/.525 this season.

One other BABIP outlier? Georgia Tech’s Kel Johnson didn’t have a spectacular season, but it was very solid–he hit .340/.392/.590. But that slash line was inflated by a .430 BABIP, and his underlying numbers (a 26 percent strikeout rate and an 8 percent walk rate) leave plenty of concerns.

1.888
Neosho County (Kan.) CC 3B Brylie Ware’s OPS

Ware was a freshman at the junior college in Chanute, Kan. He’s committed to Oklahoma next season if he doesn’t sign with a pro team, and with the concerns about where he will play defensively as a pro, there’s a decent chance he’ll be a Sooner next season.

But Ware’s statistics do deserve a second look. The offensive statistics at Neosho are generally inflated–the 51-win Panthers averaged .385/.482/.631 as a team this year—but Ware’s numbers are so out-of-bounds as to bear examination.

Ware posted a .660 on-base percentage. He reached based almost two out of every three trips to the plate. He had 29 hit-by-pitches, 37 walks and only 14 strikeouts.

And when he did swing the bat, great things happened. Ware batted .560 for the season. So he was getting a hit in more than one out of every two at-bats. Ware averaged more than a base per at-bat–a 1.128 slugging percentage that saw more than half of his 122 hits go for extra bases. He had 29 doubles, four triples and 29 home runs.