The List: Nine Prospects Having Second-Half Turnarounds

Reading too much into seasonal splits can be dangerous. If a hitter struggles early in the season and performs better in the second half, we can’t just throw away the data—both performance data and reports from scouts watching the player—from early in the year.

Context is always essential in making good decisions and judgments of players, and sometimes a player’s slow start can obstruct our view of a player who’s either making progress or simply performing better in the second half, even if that’s not necessarily reflected in his overall numbers.

Players dealing with cold weather for the first time, getting over (or playing through) an injury, fighting through mechanical or timing issues early on, off-field issues or simply dealing with bad luck can all drag down a player’s numbers and make it difficult to climb back from an early deficit.

Four months into the season, these are nine players who got off to slow starts the first two months of the season but have turn things around since June.

1. Rafael Devers, 3b, Red Sox

Few struggling players had less cause for concern early in the season than Devers. By the end of May, Devers was hitting just .195/.273/.310 for high Class A Salem, but his poor offensive output was more a byproduct of bad luck than anything else. Devers was still making contact at a high clip and driving the ball with authority to all fields, but the balls he was putting in play just weren’t landing for hits.

Devers’ luck has turned around the last two months as he’s batted .338/.385/.551 since June 1. He’s doing it all as a 19-year-old, well ahead of his peers who are mostly a level or two behind him. And while Devers’ bat is his calling card, he’s also made excellent progress defensively at third base.

2. Isan Diaz, ss/2b, Brewers

Diaz demolished the Rookie-level Pioneer League a year ago, then arrived to the Brewers in the trade that sent shortstop Jean Segura to the Diamondbacks. Diaz figured to be one of the top hitters in the low Class A Midwest League this year, but by June 1, he was batting .212/.287/.312, swinging through too many hittable pitches and not showing the same extra-base thump he did last year.

The last two months, Diaz has looked every bit the hitter the Brewers were expecting when they acquired him in the offseason. The ball is jumping off Diaz’s bat with greater exit speed, leading to a spike in his offensive production, with a .322/.405/.611 line since June 1. Diaz, 20, started the year playing shortstop but has played second base more over the past month, projecting as an offensive-minded second baseman.

3. Richard Urena, ss, Blue Jays

It’s been a prime year for shortstops in the high Class A Florida State League, with Amed Rosario (Mets) starting the year there, Jorge Mateo (Yankees) and Nick Gordon (Twins) there now and Gleyber Torres coming aboard last month after the Cubs traded him to the Yankees. Urena, 20, belongs in the next tier, but after a couple of good weeks to start the season, Urena’s slash line sunk to .253/.301/.396 by the end of May.

Since then, Urena has been one of the league’s best players, batting .349/.393/.491 and improving in the field as well. Other than his arm strength, Urena doesn’t have any plus tools—it’s mostly 40s and 50s across the board—but he shows the aptitude on both sides of the ball to develop into a steady everyday shortstop.

4. Austin Riley, 3b, Braves

After the Braves drafted Riley with the No. 41 overall pick last year, they looked like they were on to something, as Riley tore through the Rookie-level Gulf Coast League and Appalachian League during the summer. When he got to low Class A Rome this year, however, he flopped, showing an over-aggressive hitting approach with more holes in his swing. By the end of May, Riley was hitting just .246/.291/.372.

Over the last two months, Riley has looked and performed better. He’s hit .279/.327/.489 since June 1, cutting his strikeout rate from 33 percent the first two months to 24 percent since then. Power is Riley’s carrying tool, and while he does need to improve his plate discipline, the increased contact he’s made in the second half is encouraging.

5. Francis Martes, rhp, Astros

Along with Nationals center fielder Victor Robles and Padres righthander Anderson Espinoza, Martes saw his stock soar as much as any prospect in baseball last year. Acquired from the Marlins out of the GCL in 2014, Martes didn’t make a full-season club out of extended spring training, but by the end of the year he had reached Double-A as a 19-year-old.

Back in Double-A Corpus Christi, Martes’ year got off to a rough start. By the end of May, he had nearly as many walks (20) as strikeouts (25), a 5.74 ERA and he had pitched at least five innings in just three of his nine outings. Twice he didn’t make it out of the first inning due to wildness that ran up his pitch counts. Those rough first innings have largely been where things have come unraveled for Martes, who in the first inning of games this year has allowed 15 runs in 15 1/3 innings with a 16-14 K-BB mark.

The last couple of months, however, Martes has settled in nicely, with a 2.67 ERA, 64 strikeouts and 19 walks in 57 1/3 innings since June 1. His fastball command needs improvement and he’s prone to losing his release point, which led to his lack of control early in the season and still causes him problems, but he looks like a future midrotation starter.

He used his breaking ball to great effect in his last start (7 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 9 SO), flashing as an above-average pitch. It’s a curveball that he manipulates for true top-to-bottom action at times, slider-like break at others and a hybrid, three-quarters shape at others to give hitters different looks. Against Padres right fielder Nick Schulz, Martes got this strikeout on three straight curveballs.

6. Mike Gerber, of, Tigers

Gerber has one of the better swings in the Tigers’ system, with a short lefty stroke that stays on plane with the pitch for a long time. Yet early in the season, Gerber showed a surprising amount of swing-and-miss, with a whiff in 30 percent of his plate appearances and a .230/.281/.385 line at the end of May for high Class A Lakeland.

Lately, Gerber has shown why he entered the season as the organization’s No. 3 prospect. He’s been one of the best hitters in the minors since June 1, batting .351/.427/.611 in that span, including a promotion to Double-A two weeks ago. His 15 home runs are already a career-high, and while some of that extra power has come at the expense of making contact, he’s shown a better balance of barrel control and power in the second half, a promising sign of his maturation as a hitter.

7. Touki Toussaint, rhp, Braves

The first two months of Toussaint’s season was a disaster. By the end of May, his ERA had ballooned to 6.28. In those 43 innings, he had more walks (28) than strikeouts (24). Even while Toussaint struggled, his fastball was still plus and he still had one of the best curveballs in the minor leagues, but even low Class A South Atlantic League hitters were disciplined enough to lay off Toussaint’s stuff when he wasn’t finding the strike zone.

Toussaint’s athleticism has helped him refine his mechanics and repeat his delivery more consistently, which has led to more strikes and far better results in the second half. Since June, Toussaint has more strikeouts than any SAL pitcher in that stretch, with a 64-26 K-BB mark in 55 innings and a 2.78 ERA during that stretch. In a system replete with high-risk arms, Toussaint’s second-half progression has been a welcome development for the Braves.

8. Franklyn Kilome, rhp, Phillies

Kilome opened the year with three disaster starts that have stained an otherwise impressive season with low Class A Lakewood. In those three outings, Kilome gave up 19 runs (17 earned) in just 9 2/3 innings with more walks (10) than strikeouts (7). Since that ugly April, Kilome has a 2.72 ERA in 76 innings with 84 strikeouts and 32 walks, but he dug himself into such a deep hole early in the season that it took until July for Kilome to get his ERA under 5.00. Kilome had trouble syncing up his delivery the first month of the season—at 6-foot-6, maintaining his body control to repeat his mechanics and find a consistent release point is something he is still working at—but the way he’s pitched since those first three starts is more indicative of Kilome’s true talent level.

9. Franklin Barreto, ss/2b, Athletics

As a 20-year-old in Double-A, Barreto is already on the fast track, so a slow start didn’t give much cause for concern. Still, it’s not a great feeling when your top prospect is batting .228/.282/.326 at the end of May. But Barreto has looked like a different player in the second half, batting .337/.408/.552 in 185 plate appearances over the last two months. After getting caught up overswinging and fishing for too many pitches outside the strike zone early in the season, Barreto has done a better job of controlling the strike zone and turning on pitches he can drive in the second half.