The Best & Worst ‘Values’ Of The 2024 MLB Draft
Image credit: JJ Wetherholt makes his Pro Debut during the FSL playoff game against the Bradenton Maulers on July 30,2024. (Photo/Tom DiPace)
Now that the signing deadline is passed we can really sink our teeth into the 2024 draft class.
Today I am looking at the best and worst “values” of the top five rounds of the draft based on our BA 500 draft rankings. For this exercise I simply assigned the top 315 players on the BA 500 their corresponding slot values: IE Charlie Condon ranked No. 1 and so his “BA Value” is the same as the slot value that comes with the first overall pick: $10,570,600.
For each player ranked beyond the 315 picks that come with assigned slot values, I’ve given them BA Values of $150,000—the amount teams can spend on picks 316+ without tapping their bonus pool.
This isn’t the most elegant solution, as teams might disagree on any given class’s talent and the MLB-assigned slot values. It’s also the case that the talent of any given draft class isn’t distributed in the simple ascending nature of slot values and instead would fit better into various tiers.
Still, looking at players based on their value instead of their ordinal rank does tell us a bit more and so at the very least it’s an interesting exercise. Which picks and signings does the BA 500 love? And which is it more skeptical of?
As the Rangers proved with Evan Carter in 2020, a “poor value” pick based on the BA 500 doesn’t mean the team made a bad selection. Each team has more information than the public on these players, especially the ones they are selecting, and a “poor value” pick could just as easily be a fascinating name to watch moving forward to see how and why we might have missed or been too low/high on them.
There were 10 players who the BA 500 valued more than $1 million more than what they signed for:
| Team | Player | Signing Bonus | BA Value | Difference | Pick | BA Rank |
| STL | JJ Wetherholt | $6,900,000 | $9,070,800 | $2,170,800 | 7 | 3 |
| WSH | Caleb Lomavita | $2,325,000 | $4,372,900 | $2,047,900 | 39 | 18 |
| BOS | Braden Montgomery | $5,000,000 | $6,823,700 | $1,823,700 | 12 | 7 |
| MIN | Billy Amick | $1,453,700 | $3,045,500 | $1,591,800 | 60 | 29 |
| TOR | Trey Yesavage | $4,177,500 | $5,712,100 | $1,534,600 | 20 | 11 |
| CIN | Luke Holman | $997,500 | $2,332,100 | $1,334,600 | 71 | 40 |
| COL | Charlie Condon | $9,250,000 | $10,570,600 | $1,320,600 | 3 | 1 |
| BAL | Vance Honeycutt | $4,000,000 | $5,272,300 | $1,272,300 | 22 | 13 |
| KC | Drew Beam | $1,097,500 | $2,278,000 | $1,180,500 | 76 | 41 |
| ARI | Slade Caldwell | $3,087,000 | $4,219,200 | $1,132,200 | 29 | 19 |
There were 14 players who the BA 500 valued more than $1 million less than what they signed for:
| Team | Player | Signing Bonus | BA Value | Difference | Pick | BA Rank |
| WSH | Luke Dickerson | $3,800,000 | $1,603,400 | -$2,196,600 | 44 | 56 |
| BAL | Griff O’Ferrall | $2,697,500 | $630,900 | -$2,066,600 | 32 | 115 |
| MIL | Braylon Payne | $3,440,000 | $1,681,200 | -$1,758,800 | 17 | 54 |
| MIA | PJ Morlando | $3,400,000 | $1,762,500 | -$1,637,500 | 16 | 52 |
| MIN | Kyle DeBarge | $2,400,000 | $838,900 | -$1,561,100 | 33 | 89 |
| PHI | Dante Nori | $2,497,500 | $964,500 | -$1,533,000 | 27 | 80 |
| SD | Boston Bateman | $2,500,000 | $1,011,900 | -$1,488,100 | 52 | 77 |
| MIL | Bryce Meccage | $2,500,000 | $1,110,600 | -$1,389,400 | 57 | 71 |
| TB | Emilien Pitre | $1,522,700 | $198,000 | -$1,324,700 | 58 | 261 |
| SEA | Jurrangelo Cijntje | $4,880,900 | $3,556,300 | -$1,324,600 | 15 | 24 |
| MIN | Kaelen Culpepper | $3,934,400 | $2,698,300 | -$1,236,100 | 21 | 34 |
| SD | Kale Fountain | $1,700,000 | $551,100 | -$1,148,900 | 151 | 129 |
| LA | Chase Harlan | $1,747,500 | $612,900 | -$1,134,600 | 98 | 118 |
| BOS | Payton Tolle | $2,000,000 | $934,800 | -$1,065,200 | 50 | 82 |
