The Best Curveballs Outside The Top 100 Prospects
Image credit: Zach McCambley (Mike Janes/Four Seam Images)
Over the years the slider has surpassed the curveball as the breaking ball of choice.
They’re harder, have a higher average whiff rate and a higher strike rate. So it’s easy to see why the game has gone more and more toward sliders as a primary breaking ball versus the classic curveball.
That said, curveballs are going nowhere and some may argue many of the pitches we mark as sliders are actually curveballs. There’s maybe no pitch as aesthetically pleasing as the 12-6 curveball, coming over the top with a steep downward break. Even if many times that shape serves little function it’s the oddity of making the ball curve with such precision that captures the eye and the imagination.
While there’s still some gray area as to where sliders and curveballs meet, the real separator is what the pitcher calls the pitch. So while two pitchers like Nick Lodolo and Matt Brash may have similar breaking ball shape, what they define the pitch as can differ. Lodolo calls his sweeper a curveball and Brash calls his a slider. Keep that in mind when toggling back and forth between the Best Sliders Outside The Top 100 and this article—some curveballs and sliders are more similar than they are different.
Calvin Faucher, RHP Rays | 85.3 mph CB Avg. | 3,000 rpm | 34% Whiff Rate | 55% Strike Rate
I don’t believe it would be too much of a stretch to assume Faucher’s signature curveball was a large part—if not exclusively why—Faucher was acquired as a secondary piece in the Nelson Cruz trade last summer. Ranking No. 24 in the Rays system, Faucher’s curveball is a true hammer, with 70-grade curveball velocity and an average spin rate well above 3,000 rpm. This translates to a steep downward bite as Faucher generates over a foot of negative induced vertical break. While the results could be better, as Faucher struggled pre-trade with Minnesota, he seemed to figure something out after joining the Rays organization. That said, his whiff and strike rates on the season were above-average for a curveball. There’s definitely reason to be optimistic about Faucher’s future outlook as he fooled highly regarded prospect Adley Rutschman multiple times on the pitch in his final appearance of 2021. Highly rated by stuff-based models, Faucher, now on the Tampa 40-man roster, could see innings with the big league club throughout 2022.
Future Role: Faucher has above-average to plus fastball velocity but it’s his curveball that does a majority of the lifting, if not all of it. His fastball was consistently barreled and didn’t miss bats, meaning Faucher doesn’t have the sort of two-pitch combination common of the most dominant relievers. However, his signature pitch and ability to generate whiffs could make him a valuable bullpen option going forward.
Will Klein, RHP Royals | 85 mph CB Avg. | 2,600 rpm | 45% Whiff Rate | 55% Strike Rate
The Royals No. 18 prospect is a converted catcher who spent two seasons in Eastern Illinois’ bullpen, before finally earning a starting gig—albeit a brief one—during the pandemic-shortened 2020 college season. He was taken with the Royals’ final pick of the 2020 five-round draft and spent the 2021 season in the bullpen for High-A Quad-Cities making 36 appearances. Klein’s combination of his upper-90s four-seam fastball and mid-80s, hard, downer curveball arm him with a truly formidable one-two punch. His curveball has plus-plus velocity, sitting 84-86 mph and features over a foot of negative induced vertical break. The combination of power, movement and his ability to command the pitch at an above-average level helps Klein generate whiffs at a high rate. Coming into 2022, Klein will likely be challenged with an assignment to Double-A Northwest Arkansas, where he’ll look to put himself on the fast track to the Royals pen come 2023.
Future Role: Armed with premium fastball velocity and a signature out-pitch in his curveball, Klein has the look of a high-leverage reliever with high-octane stuff. If it all comes together over the next few years Klein has the ability to develop into a dominant closer.
Zach McCambley, RHP Marlins | 81 mph CB Avg. | 2,700 rpm | 53% Whiff Rate | 55% Strike Rate
A third-round pick out of Coastal Carolina in the five-round 2020 draft, McCambley debuted at High-A Beliot and performed well over 11 starts to begin the season. He saw a promotion to Double-A where he joined the vaunted Blue Wahoo staff alongside Max Meyer, Edward Cabrera and Jake Eder, among others. McCambley struggled with the advanced competition of Double-A but his breaking ball never stopped producing results. The No. 16 prospect in the Marlins system, McCambley is an example of the blurred lines between curveballs and sliders, as McCambley features the only sweeper on this list. While the righthander gets more vertical drop than typical sweepers, he gets over a foot of horizontal break and sits in the low 80s but will run it up to 84-85 mph at times. The pitch had one of the highest whiff rates for a curveball in the minors and has the highest of any pitch featured on this list. McCambley’s up-tempo motion and lower slot play up the deception on the pitch.
Future Role: While McCambley’s curveball is a true weapon, the rest of his arsenal lags behind that pitch. His high-spin four-seam fastball was hit hard in 2021 and while his control of the pitch is excellent, it sits in the low 90s and often catches too much of the plate. His changeup is still a work-in-progress and was hit hard throughout 2021. Without an overpowering fastball to pair with his curveball or a changeup to work in to keep hitters off his fastball, McCambley’s arsenal is in limbo. There’s not enough power on his fastball for the bullpen, and he has too shallow of an arsenal to overcome his lack of fastball quality as a starter.
Jimmy Joyce, RHP Mariners | 81 mph CB Avg. | 2,300 rpm | 40% Whiff Rate | 60% Strike Rate
A senior sign out of Hofstra, Joyce was selected by Seattle in the 16th round of the 2021 draft and immediately started making noise upon entering pro ball. He made two appearances with Seattle’s Arizona Complex League team before seeing a late August assignment to High-A Everett. Joyce made four starts with Everett where his plus extension and low release from a side arm slot made him an uncomfortable at-bat for High-A batters. All of Joyce’s pitches have outlier characteristics but his breaking ball is the most unique. He sits in the low 80s and generates over a foot of both horizontal and vertical break. The pitch’s movement is heavily vertical with the collapsing bottom break typical of a curveball. It’s a unique pitch with a high rate of transverse spin—or active/true spin—which allows it to generate the heavy two-plane break despite a below-average raw spin rate. Joyce is a shining example that raw spin rates as a standalone number are often meaningless.
Future Role: Joyce has some similarities to fellow Mariners pitching prospect Matt Brash, as they’re both righthanders with big stuff and unique movement profiles. Brash so far has done his best to avoid a move to the pen full-time, and Joyce will look to toe a similar line. That said, his unique operation certainly gives him the look of a reliever long term.
Jake Walsh, RHP Cardinals | 84 mph CB Avg. | 2,500 rpm | 50% Whiff Rate | 50% Strike Rate
A 2017 16th-rounder out of Florida Southern, Walsh was converted to a reliever full-time starting in 2021 after recovering from Tommy John surgery that cost him most of 2019. Walsh returned in 2021 and made 13 appearances out of the Double-A Springfield bullpen, allowing just 16 baserunners to reach across 18 innings. He saw a promotion to Triple-A Memphis before season’s end and then made 11 appearances in the Arizona Fall League after the conclusion of the season. Walsh, the Cardinals No. 24 prospect, has big stuff, sitting 95-97 mph with excellent analytic markers on his fastball, but it’s his curveball that really puts Walsh into the conversation for major league innings in 2022. He sits 83-85 mph with over 15 inches of negative induced vertical break—a tremendous combination of power and movement. When his hammer curveball is paired with his fastball it’s incredibly hard for hitters to adjust to the change in eye level at those velocities. In fact, during the 2021 season Walsh’s curveball allowed just a single hit: a testament to just how difficult Walsh’s breaking ball is to barrel.
Future Role: Added to the Cardinals 40-man roster this offseason, Walsh is positioned to see some innings out of the major league bullpen in 2022. There are still questions around Walsh’s delivery and his feel to pitch, but few question his raw stuff. Walsh has the look of a middle relief arm with high-leverage upside.
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