Texas Rangers Top 10 Prospects Chat

Ben Badler: Hey everyone. Been a busy/fun time here between Prospect Handbook calls and sorting through all the ramifications of the new CBA. I should have something up next week on what all the new rules will mean for teams and players internationally. The Rangers are always a fun system to write up, definitely a different feel to it this year with all the players they’ve traded away, but I was surprised at the depth they still had even with those trades. Let’s get started.

Norm (Connecticut): Hi Ben, How does the toolset of Taveras compare another #1 rated prospect in the NorthWest League at 18, Jurickson Profar?
Ben Badler: Just in terms of raw tools, I’d put Taveras slightly above Profar at the same age, with maybe the exception of arm strength, although that’s not a weakness for Taveras. Leody is a better athlete, better runner. They both play good defense at a premium position. I think Profar would get the overall edge though as a pure hitter and in terms of overall baseball IQ. The game awareness and maturity to his approach is a strength for Taveras too, but Profar was just super, super polished for someone that young.

Frank (Indianapolis IN): How many of these guys are likely to make the BA 100?
Ben Badler: Taveras is the only one I’d call a lock to make the Top 100. Mendez and Jurado I think are candidates to be in that mix, but Taveras is the only one I’d guarantee is in there.

Kelly (St Cloud, MN): Can Anderson Tejeda stick at short? How far off the top ten was he? Thanks
Ben Badler: He has a chance to stay there, but if I had to make a bet, I think he ends up at second or third. After all the trades the Rangers made, the players in the 5-15 or so range were all sort of in the same group, and I think you could make an argument to put them in just about any order. I know internally we had them moved around in just about every possible permutation before we finalized the list, and Tejeda definitely falls into that group. Tejeda has serious whip to his bat speed and the ability to impact the ball well for his age, the risk right now is in the plate discipline and pitch recognition that leads to more swing-and-miss. If has a big year at Hickory, he could shoot up this list a year from now.

Dave (Brooklyn): Jonathan Hernandez' metrics at Hickory did not look as promising as previous Rookie League seasons. Has he progressed in the last year, and how much of his 'plateauing' in 2016 is due to his youth? Where is he likely to fell in the Top 30?
Ben Badler: There was definitely progress for Hernandez this year. The raw stuff got better, at least the fastball did, because he was showing a plus fastball that touched 97 mph. He’s a solid strike-thrower, he just doesn’t have a true out pitch, which is why his strikeout rate is pretty ordinary. Coming up with an offspeed pitch to miss bats is going to be key for him.

Dave (Brooklyn): Hey, Ben! Happy Friday! Does Tyler Ferguson have the 2 Plus pitches to become an Elite Closer? How close was he to Best Fastball? How quickly could he move if he gets command of his Fastball and Slider?
Ben Badler: Tough to beat out Sadzeck for best fastball, but it’s a lively fastball/slider combination. It’s the type of pure stuff you see from big league relievers in high-leverage situations. The ability to command his stuff or put the ball over the plate is the major red flag with him, especially for a relief-only prospect who’s still in Low-A.

Dave (NY): How close was Pedro Payano to making this list? What do you see as his realistic floor/ceiling?
Ben Badler: He put himself more on the prospect map this year, just not a Top 10 guy. The fastball is light but he misses a lot of bats with a changeup that he throws liberally. He does have a four-pitch mix, but the changeup is the only above-average pitch. The Rangers left him unprotected in the Rule 5 draft, so he would be an interesting name to watch for me if someone wanted to take him and see if the fastball might tick up in a bullpen role.

Rich (NJ): Ronald Guzman seemed to have taken some positive steps forward this past season in AA, particularly with him reaching his power; did his performance this year change your view on his ultimate potential? Thanks
Ben Badler: I nearly dropped him out of the Rangers’ Top 30 last year after a modest year as a first base-only prospect in the Cal League, so I think he took a huge step forward this season. When he was 16, I was a big Ronald Guzman fan, then more so when he came over to the AZL the next year, but I think he got away from his strengths the last couple of seasons trying to show everyone he’s a power hitter and getting out of control with those long levers. Whether he has the power to be an everyday first baseman is still a question scouts have, but I think he made a lot of strides as a pure hitter and taking a better offensive approach this season.

Ryne (Waco, TX): Is there a chance either Mendez or Jurado end up in the bullpen, or are they both viewed as clear SP-candidates at this point? Thanks in advance.
Ben Badler: Mendez has some bullpen risk just because of the durability issues he has shown throughout his career, but he has a starter’s mix, an easy delivery and I know the Rangers see him as a starter. Jurado should be a starter all the way.

Zac (NY): Joe Palumbo is an interesting prospect. What do you see as the realistic ceiling for him? Back of the rotation or possibly better?
Ben Badler: Palumbo’s one of the best and most fascinating development stories of the year in the system. I think the most likely outcome is a back-end starter, but I wouldn’t rule out him beating that projection. The pure stuff is average to plus across the board, he throws strikes, he has a good fastball and the swing-and-miss secondary options to rack up strikeouts. It’s an unusual path and I want to see how he holds up over a full season as a starter, but all the arrows are pointing in the right direction on him.

Bill Goold (Jersey City NJ): Did Jose Trevino merit consideration for the top 10?
Ben Badler: Yes. Trevino was in that big mix of players I talked about earlier who we shuffled throughout top 10 consideration. As a defender, he’s tremendous. Rave reviews about all the leadership/intangible qualities that managers love, the blocking and receiving are excellent and he can shut down a running game even without a rocket arm because his feet and exchange are so fast that he’s able to get rid of the ball in a heartbeat. The question on him is whether the offensive game is enough to be a starter or if he’s better suited as a backup. He’s a little old for High-A, but sometimes catchers take a little longer given all the other requirements they have, especially Trevino who wasn’t even a permanent catcher in college. So that could be the case for him, but he does need to improve his plate discipline to take the next step as a hitter.

Cam (Houston, TX): Had Gallo remained eligible, would he have topped this list again? Also, are you reasonably confident he'll eventually figure it out at the plate?
Ben Badler: Out of my own pure cowardice, I’m glad Gallo graduated from prospect status, because it’s a tough question stacking him up against a player like Taveras who has such a different profile and is in such a different place in terms of proximity to the majors. Gallo is such an extreme player, but I do still think he eventually figure out how to tone down and level out his swing enough so that the strikeouts are at least manageable and allow that 40-homer potential to show up along with the walks he takes. But part of the risk is it might take multiple years of growing pains at the major league level before he figures it out.

Brian (Detroit): Texas has been trading away prospects for MLB playoff pieces. They have also graduated quite a few good ones as well. Where does their farm system rank?
Ben Badler: It’s in the bottom half. But it’s at least there for the right reasons, because all the players they gave up are the reason they have Cole Hamels and Jonathan Lucroy, plus young ones like Odor, Mazara and Gallo on the major league club.

Karl of Delaware (Georgetown, Delaware): Pick a sleeper from the low low minors in the Texas system.
Ben Badler: I don’t know if David Garcia and Miguel Aparicio fit the sleeper tag, but those are two young kids who have yet to play an official game in the US who I really like. Garcia was the top catcher on the international market this year in the eyes of a lot of scouts. Aparicio doesn’t have the same twitchy explosiveness or raw tools of Leody Taveras, but he’s a good hitter and a well-rounded player at a premium position. They could both be Top 10 guys next year or at some point in the near future.

Alex (Dallas): How does the new CBA impact the Texas Ranger strategy on the International Prospect Market?
Ben Badler: The Rangers have shown their one of the best teams in the game when it comes to international scouting. A draft, generally, would hurt teams that are good at scouting. With a draft, you’re locked in to where you pick and are restricted to taking whoever is available when your turn comes around. Under a free agent system, scouts have the freedom to go after the players they want and try to beat other teams to the punch to sign them. The Rangers have been very good at that; it’s how they signed Leody Taveras, it’s how they got David Garcia and Miguel Aparicio at very reasonable prices. So the new system for them is way better than a draft. And while the system is capped, there’s a lot of room under the caps for teams to bring in talent. The Rangers especially were not one of the teams that had gone over their bonus pool the last couple of years, so with a bigger pool to work with now, I think they should be content, given the potential alternatives we could have seen.

JD (AZ): Hi Ben, thanks for the chat. Juremi Profar had a nice year at High Desert at age 20, he seems to be getting better every year. Is he someone we should expect to see in the Prospect Handbook?
Ben Badler: He’s in there, and you’re right, he’s making progress every season. I don’t think he has one tool right now that grades out better than a 50, but the high baseball IQ is part of the Profar DNA. Very smart, savvy player and he has a good swing with very good feel for the strike zone, so he has good plate coverage and doesn’t whiff much. I don’t expect him to be an everyday guy at the major league level, but he’s turned himself into a prospect.

Keith (Farmington, CT): Thanks Ben. Is Leody Taveras ready for full season ball or is Low A too aggressive for someone that young?
Ben Badler: This is the Texas Rangers. They put Leody in major league spring training games, they give Yeyson Yrizarri Triple-A time, they put Michael De Leon in Double-A when he was 17. And like we saw with Rougned Odor or Jurickson Profar, they push their best prospects quickly. So I’d definitely bank on Taveras going to Low-A next year. It is moving quickly for someone who’s only 18, so I wouldn’t expect him to destroy the league, but it will be a good challenge for him.

Derick (Canada): Where would Michael de Leon and Juremi profar be on this list? And what's you're opinion on the two?
Ben Badler: Touched on Profar earlier, but De Leon was one of the guys in the Top 10 mix. On raw tools/athleticism, nothing jumps out at you, he’s even a below-average runner, but he’s a true shortstop who fields the position well. He has a very good internal clock at shortstop with a nose for the ball. There isn’t a ton of thump in the bat yet and I don’t think that’s ever going to be part of his game, but the bat-to-ball skills are very good and he’s been pushed aggressively as a 19-year-old in High-A. The defense and contact skills might be enough for him to be an everyday shortstop if the overall offensive impact develops.

Mike (Toronto): Can Connor Sadzeck help the pen this year? Could he be a potential future closer for them if Kela not cutting it?
Ben Badler: I think he can help the major league bullpen this year. I’m sure the Rangers want to keep him as a starter as long as they can, but between the command, the medical history and the chance to have a guy potentially pumping 98-101 mph gas in a one-inning shot, I think a bullpen role makes a lot of sense for Sadzeck, who could thrive in short stints.

Noel (Portland): Ibanez had a great deal of success early in the season. Is it because he was old for the league, or did he just take a while to adjust when he moved up to AA (and he's really a stud who could break out next year)?
Ben Badler: Probably both. I talked earlier about how aggressive the Rangers are with their prospects, so I was surprised when they put him in Low-A when I felt like his talent level was more commensurate with a Double-A player. But transitioning Cuban players to pro ball involves a lot of factors that are different certainly from how a team handles a college draft pick or a 17-year-old kid from the Dominican Republic, so I can understand the desire to try to slow things down for a player and put him in a position where they think best suits what can be a difficult transition. He proved quickly he was too talented for Low-A, then when he got to Double-A he was seeing better pitching than he’d ever seen in his life but then hit well the last month of the season. If that’s a sign of real progress, I think he can be an average everyday guy at second base.

Dave (Chicago): Which position suits Yanio Perez best? How does his bat look to you?
Ben Badler: They’re going to put him in the outfield and rotate him between all three outfield spots. The background at third base is still there, and teams (especially the Rangers) value that, so I wouldn’t rule it out entirely, but the plan for him right now is to be an outfielder. From what I saw from him as a hitter in brief looks when he was in Cuba, there wasn’t anything that really jumped out to me, and the performance record doesn’t either, so I’m curious to see how he does in 2017.

Grant (NYC): Who would be best suited to be behind the dish right now - Trevino, Garcia or Morgan?
Ben Badler: If you’re just grading out defense: Trevino, Garcia, Morgan.

John (NJ): Is Jairo Beras cooked, or did he miss the top 10 because of prospect fatigue? Almost half of his hits went for extra bases last season. Granted it was in the hitter friendly California League, but I just wanted your take as to where he profiles in the future. He only drew 24 walks so it looks like his OBP suffered greatly. Thanks as always!
Ben Badler: With Beras, the big things are strike-zone discipline and pitch recognition. He has big power, but pitches that bend give him trouble, his strike zone is already bigger than most because he’s so tall and then he doesn’t do himself any favors because he chases a lot off the plate. Between that and a longer swing, it’s a lot of empty swings. A .306 OBP in the Cal League just isn’t good for a corner outfielder. The encouraging thing with him is that he did make mechanical adjustments to his swing in the second half of the season that led to his improved performance at the end of the year. The raw tools are still there, it’s just a very risky profile.

Ryne (Waco, TX): Has the future outlook on Yeyson Yrizzari changed at all? Is he still viewed as a future SS? Did he make any improvements this year? Thanks in advance.
Ben Badler: Disappointing season for Yrizarri. The good news is his defensive continues to get better. When he signed, I thought he might go to second or third base, but I think he stays at shortstop now and his arm has always been a rocket. His problem isn’t a secret: He needs to learn it’s not a requirement to swing at every pitch. Physical ability is there, but he has to walk more than twice a month.

Johnny (Columbus): Curious how close Eric Jenkins was to your top 10? Do you have a ceiling/realistic comp for him?
Ben Badler: I didn’t have him in the Top 10 mix. He is one of the best pure athletes in the lower levels of the minor leagues and he’s got quick twitch all over from his speed to his hands. He has to learn to trust those hands at the plate though, level out his swing more and find a way to keep his balance underneath him at the plate to cut down on all those strikeouts. Next year will be big for him.

Karl of Delaware (Georgetown, Delaware): Of the pitchers moving from short season and rookie teams to Hickory, who are your favorites?
Ben Badler: Ragans and Speas are the two big ones. Kyle Cody and Tyler Phillips would be two arms more under the radar to keep an eye on there next year.

Kenny (Marco Island, FL): Who are the sleepers we haven't heard much about yet insiders know are on the rise in the organization's eyes?
Ben Badler: Jose Cardona is one to watch. He’s one player I’ve had multiple people tell me that they watch him for a couple games and nothing really stands out, but the longer they watch him, the more they appreciate what he can do. He’s not toolsy but he’s a very good defender in center field. At the plate he puts together quality at-bats, stays through the middle of the field and puts the ball in play with mostly gap power. Double-A next year will be a key test for him but he’s definitely an intriguing guy who seems to sneak under the radar.

Ben Badler: Thanks for all the questions. For anyone asking questions about the new international rules, I’ll have a lot more thoughts on that next week now that we’re getting a more complete picture of what the final rules will be. And I appreciate all the kind words from folks on our coverage leading up to the CBA. Have a great weekend and enjoy the winter meetings.