Termarr Johnson Would Be A Very Unusual Top-Five MLB Draft Pick
Image credit: Termarr Johnson (Matt Dirksen/Colorado Rockies)
UPDATE: A scout reached out to note that Johnson’s official height as measured at the East Coast Pro Showcase was 5-foot-7, which just adds to the potential uniqueness as a potential top five pick.
Coming out of the summer, second baseman Termarr Johnson ranks No. 1 on Baseball America’s 2022 Top 50 high school draft prospects. It seems highly likely that he will be among the top 10 picks in next year’s draft, and he has a very good chance to be a top-five pick.
There’s a lot to like about Johnson. He’s one of the most advanced hitters to come out of high school in years. His consistent ability to square up seemingly any prep pitcher on the showcase circuit has made him a star this summer. He’s also a smooth defender at second base. His combination of intelligence, polish and drive makes him a scout’s favorite.
But he would be a very unusual top-five pick. Johnson is listed at 5-foot-10 (and was measured at 5-foot-7 at the East Coast Pro Showcase), which is shorter than most players who are taken in the top-10 picks. He also is seen most likely as a second baseman in pro ball. Prep players who are seen as second basemen are almost never taken in the top-10 picks.
The combination together would be somewhat unprecedented.
Using Pramana’s Shift Tool allows us to quickly put together just how unusual this combination is.
Here’s a look at every 5-foot-10 or shorter position player taken in the top-10 picks since the first MLB draft in 1965. Of the 570 top-10 picks, only 20 (3.5%) have been position players who are 5-foot-10 or shorter.
Year | Pick | Team | Player | POS | BATS | THROWS | Height (Inches) |
2004 | 1 | San Diego Padres | Matt Bush | SS | R | R | 69 |
1974 | 3 | Philadelphia Phillies | Lonnie Smith | OF | R | R | 69 |
1981 | 3 | Los Angeles Angels | Dick Schofield | SS | R | R | 70 |
1998 | 3 | Chicago Cubs | Corey Patterson | OF | L | R | 70 |
2018 | 4 | Chicago White Sox | Nick Madrigal | SS | R | R | 67 |
2010 | 4 | Kansas City Royals | Christian Colon | SS | R | R | 70 |
1968 | 5 | Los Angeles Dodgers | Bobby Valentine | OF | R | R | 70 |
1979 | 5 | Oakland Athletics | Juan Bustabad | SS | B | R | 69 |
1976 | 6 | Los Angeles Angels | Ken Landreaux | OF | L | R | 70 |
1982 | 6 | Seattle Mariners | Spike Owen | SS | B | R | 70 |
2020 | 7 | Pittsburgh Pirates | Nick Gonzales | SS | R | R | 70 |
2015 | 7 | Boston Red Sox | Andrew Benintendi | OF | L | L | 70 |
2010 | 8 | Houston Astros | Delino DeShields Jr. | 2B | R | R | 69 |
1977 | 9 | Texas Rangers | David Hibner | SS | R | R | 70 |
1978 | 9 | Montreal Expos | Glen Franklin | SS | L | R | 70 |
2002 | 10 | Texas Rangers | Drew Meyer | SS | L | R | 70 |
2018 | 10 | Pittsburgh Pirates | Travis Swaggerty | OF | L | L | 70 |
1971 | 10 | Atlanta Braves | Taylor Duncan | SS | R | R | 70 |
1972 | 10 | California Angels | Dave Chalk | 3B | R | R | 70 |
1973 | 10 | Atlanta Braves | Pat Rockett | SS | R | R | 70 |
Short hitters being taken in the top-10 picks are rare, but a high school second baseman being taken in the top-10 picks has only happened once: Delino DeShields Jr. in 2010 (eighth overall by the Astros). There have been only five high school second baseman ever taken in the top-30 picks.
Year | Pick | Team | Player | Pos. | Bats | Throws | Height (Inches) |
2010 | 8 | Houston Astros | Delino DeShields Jr. | 2B | R | R | 69 |
1971 | 14 | New York Mets | Rich Puig | 2B | L | R | 70 |
2020 | 17 | Boston Red Sox | Nick Yorke | 2B | R | R | 72 |
1974 | 19 | San Francisco Giants | Terry Lee | 2B | L | R | 61 |
2009 | 30 | Tampa Bay Rays | LeVon Washington | 2B | L | R | 71 |
Admittedly, there are some caveats to this list. Often, a likely pro second baseman will be announced as a shortstop in the draft, even if he ends up playing second base for most of his pro career. Nick Madrigal, the fourth pick in the 2018 draft, was listed as a shortstop when the White Sox selected him, even though he played second base throughout almost his entire college career. Madrigal has played exactly one game at shortstop in his pro career.
Johnson does play shortstop in addition to second base, and may be listed as a shortstop when he is selected. But even if he is drafted as a shortstop, he still would be a rare demographic as a top-10 pick.
The fact that Johnson may end up as a top-five pick and even a candidate to go 1-1 overall does signify how the game is changing. A few decades ago, his stature would likely disqualify him from top-five consideration, but just as short righthanded pitchers are now viewed more favorably than they were years ago, teams have come around to the idea that if you can hit, height isn’t really an issue.
On top of that, the success of Jose Altuve, Dustin Pedroia, Jose Ramirez and Ozzie Albies in the 21st century has shown that being shorter than the average MLB hitter doesn’t preclude a player from providing plenty of power. Their success will likely make it a little easier for teams to consider Johnson at the top of this upcoming draft class.
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