Talent To Spare: A Bountiful High School Crop Buoys Strong 2023 Draft Class

A significant factor in why the 2023 draft class is so favorably reviewed by scouts is the talent of the high school prospects.

With any analysis of a draft’s talent level, it starts at the top. While it might not seem like it, given the amount of attention paid to the Louisiana State duo of Dylan Crews and Paul Skenes, there are a pair of No. 1 overall-caliber prep players in this class.

Both Walker Jenkins and Max Clark stack up well with top-ranked prepsters in recent years—including Druw Jones, Jackson Holliday and Termarr Johnson in 2022 or Jordan Lawlar and Marcelo Mayer in 2021—and in another draft class, both outfielders would have likely received more significant buzz as potential 1-1 picks. 

As it stands, the duo of Jenkins and Clark is solidly viewed among an elite top tier of five players in the 2023 draft class. Both have impact tools on both sides of the ball.

Jenkins has a fearsome lefthanded swing with the power to back it up, and he is one of the best high school prospects out of the state of North Carolina in years. He draws eye-opening player comps that include Austin Meadows and one closer to home.

“People are going in and coming out very excited,” said one scout of the industry watching Jenkins this spring. “He’s humongous. He looks like Josh Hamilton. The area (scouts) in North Carolina say they haven’t had a guy like him since Josh. He’s legit.”

Jenkins attends South Brunswick High in the southeastern part of the state, the same region as recent first-rounders MacKenzie Gore and Blake Walston. 

Clark, who attends Franklin Community High, about 25 miles south of Indianapolis, has arguably the most electric all-around tools in the draft. It starts with plus hitting potential, but he has two 70 tools in his speed and arm strength. He should be a plus defensive center fielder as well.

The strength of a draft class can’t be carried on the shoulders of two players, though, however broad they might be. What seems like a separator for the 2023 high school group is the amount of quality players beyond Jenkins and Clark. 

Since 2021, Baseball America has polled scouting directors before the season in an attempt to gauge the overall talent of the draft. This year, the industry collectively gave the high school hitters a 55 grade on the 20-80 scale and the high school pitchers a 50 grade. 

Things have changed since January. There has been more up-arrow movement for the high school class collectively than there is in an average draft year. Typically, as the draft gets closer and the college season unfolds, performing college hitters and pitchers move up boards. 

The high school players—hitters in particular—mostly solidify their draft stock during the summer showcase circuit as rising seniors and have fewer opportunities to move up boards or significantly alter their perceptions in the spring. The reality is that they have fewer opportunities against quality competition compared to their college counterparts.

As for high school pitchers, the risk of the demographic creates uncertainty. As draft day approaches, college arms have multiple advantages, specifically increased high-profile postseason opportunities to showcase in front of national decision-makers. They also have a significantly shorter development timeline once they enter pro ball. 

The 2023 season, though, has seen a significant number of high school players move up the draft board. When looking at our preseason top 200 list and our late May top 500 update, the movement of the high school class as a whole is impressive.

The Shortstops

While the 2023 high school shortstop class doesn’t quite compare to the four high school shortstops who topped the class in 2021—Lawlar, Mayer, Brady House and Kahlil Watson—there’s plenty of impact to be found.

In total, 16 high school shortstops rank among the top 100 prospects, including nine among the top 50. 

The high school shortstop demographic is always coveted, and this year there’s a player for everyone—regardless of scouting preferences or organizational philosophy.

For clubs that favor pure hitters with bat-to-ball skills, there’s Kevin McGonigle from Pennsylvania, who is perhaps the best pure hitter in the class. Both Colt Emerson of Ohio and Cooper Pratt of Mississippi have excellent contact ability and advanced approaches.

Other clubs may go for power and impact. If that’s the case, then Arjun Nimmala of Florida has electric bat speed, Eric Bitonti of California is massive with huge raw power and Walker Martin of Colorado was one of the nation’s top home run hitters this spring.

For clubs who value defense, this draft has no shortage of slick-gloved prep shortstops who should be above-average defenders, including Dylan Cupp of Georgia, Roch Cholowsky of Arizona, Adrian Santana of Florida, Samuel Stafura of New York and Roman Martin of California.

Bloodlines? How about Florida’s George Lombard Jr., whose father George Sr. spent six seasons in the big leagues; or Ontario’s Myles Naylor, who looks to continue the MLB lineage of older brothers Josh and Bo.

Youth? Nimmala, Emerson, Santana and Bitonti will all be 17 on draft day.

Multi-sport athleticism? That’s covered by football players like Colin Houck of Georgia and Cholowsky, who were both excellent prep quarterbacks.

Entering the year, there were a handful of high school prospects who were in consideration for the back of the first round, led by McGonigle, Nimmala, Cholowsky and Houck. 

Strength gains and improved toolsets have only added to the mix.

Lombard Jr. started showing more power and speed this spring, which elevated an already strong foundation of baseball skill that comes in part from his big league bloodlines. 

The same is true for Stafura, who excelled defensively and showed a sound hit tool last summer at the Area Code Games, but is looking stronger and faster this spring with plus run times and more impact potential. 

Santana is one of the smaller high school players in the class, listed at 5-foot-11, 160 pounds, but he has some of the most electric tools as well, with 70-grade speed and plus defensive actions. When he came out hitting well and showing a bit more impact against South Florida competition, he also moved up boards.

California shortstop Boston Baro was further off the national radar entering the year, and he has similar size and impact questions as Santana at 6-foot-1, 175 pounds. He also showed a bit more physicality and pairs a clean swing and hit tool with solid defensive actions.

Arms Race

The quality depth isn’t limited to position players.

This draft has plenty of pitching talent, even beyond the consensus top four arms, led by Oregon righthander Noble Meyerand Massachusetts lefthander Thomas White and also including righthanders Charlee Soto (Florida) and Travis Sykora(Texas).

Scouts regard Meyer as being as accomplished and electric as recent top-of-the-class prep arms like Mick Abel and Andrew Painter were in 2020 and 2021.

Seven high school pitchers started the year outside of the top 55 on the preseason rankings but are now solidly in that mix and viewed as top-two round talents. 

Most notable is perhaps California righthander Joey Volchko, who has shown increased velocity and a deep mix of four pitches that could be average or better, to go with a large, 6-foot-4, 210-pound frame. He went from unranked to No. 36 and could be the rare Stanford commit selected high enough to actually sign.

Other West Coast arms like righthander Cole Schoenwetter of California and lefthander Paul Wilson of Oregon have impressed scouts all spring and have moved into the second-round range, while a trio of cold-weather Northern pitchers have done the same, albeit a bit later in the calendar. 

Northeastern righthanders Josh Knoth and Steven Echavarria will both be 17 on draft day, and Knoth has some of the best breaking stuff in the class. Both Knoth and Echavarria showed impressive velocity gains and have gotten their fastballs into the 97-98 mph range.

Illinois righty Blake Wolters is another player who was unranked entering the year, but after showing a fastball up to 98 mph with a big frame to support it this spring, he’s solidly inside the top-two-rounds range and now a threat to be signed out of an Arizona commitment.

One of the biggest commodities of any draft is lefthanded pitching. The 2023 class is viewed as weak in that department, through no fault of the prep class. 

White is the most talented southpaw in the draft, but beyond him there’s Wilson as well as the ultra-physical, 6-foot-4, 240-pound Cameron Johnson of Florida and Alexander Clemmey of Rhode Island, who is one of the hardest throwers in the class and already touches 98 mph with riding life.

While the industry might lament the lack of college pitchers in the second- or third-round range stepping forward this spring or staying healthy, there’s plenty of talent to be found in the high school ranks for teams with the appropriate combination of risk tolerance and confidence in their pitching development. 

Signability is always a factor for teams when deciding to select a high school player or a college player in the draft. That’s why the composition of players leans heavily to the college demographic once the third round begins. It’s a challenge for MLB clubs to buy preps out of college commitments with slot values under $1 million after round two.

There’s more high school talent than the industry can afford in every draft class. That seems especially true in 2023.