Subscriber Mailbag: Where Would Vance Honeycutt Rank Among 2023 Draft Prospects?

rob from silver spring, md asks: Where would Vance Honeycutt rank on the 2023 draft prospects list?

During our conversations in putting together the 2024 draft list, we feel very … lukewarm about the group currently. 

The high school class doesn’t seem as electric at the top as the 2023 class—and it certainly isn’t as exciting as the 2022 high school class yet—and the college class seems to be stronger on arms than bats at the moment.

That said, Honeycutt does possess the well-rounded tool set, athleticism, up-the-middle defensive profile and college production to fit at the top of a draft class. He has legitimately impressive speed, power and defensive acumen that could make him an impact player in all phases.

The one glaring issue I see in his profile currently is his 29.7% strikeout rate from the 2022 season. That’s not only concerning but it would be shockingly high for a college player selected among the top 10 picks in the draft. I went back and looked at each of the top-10 college hitter selections of the last five years to see where that rate would stack up and the picture isn’t a pretty one:

Jacob Berry: 14.7%
Brooks Lee: 11.7%
Gavin Cross: 16.9%
Henry Davis: 10.7%
Colton Cowser: 12.0%
Spencer Torkelson: 16.6%
Heston Kjerstad: 18.7%
Austin Martin: 12.3%
Nick Gonzales: 13.3%
Adley Rutschman: 14.3%
Andrew Vaughn: 10.1%
JJ Bleday: 15.0%
Josh Jung: 13.2%
Shea Langeliers: 15.5%
Hunter Bishop: 25.3%
Joey Bart: 21.4%
Alec Bohm: 11.6%
Nick Madrigal: 5.2%
Jonathan India: 17.3%
Kyler Murray: 26.2%
Travis Swaggerty: 16.0%

There are only three players in this sample with a strikeout rate north of 20% and the two profiles most similar to Honeycutt, Murray and Bishop, have been massive whiffs (pun intended). 

So, Honeycutt needs to significantly cut down his strikeout rate to maintain his current position in the 2024 draft class. There are some reasons to believe that he will, but the track record of first-round picks with strikeout rates hovering around 30% isn’t a good one. 

This is a long way of saying, I couldn’t see a case for him to be above any of the top four outfielders on the 2023 board (Dylan Crews, Wyatt Langford, Max Clark and Walker Jenkins) or among the top 10 currently. When we get to Vanderbilt outfielder Enrique Bradfield at No. 11 I could see a case, since Bradfield has his own odd profile for different reasons, but I am not convinced he’d definitely be above him either. 

I think somewhere in the 11-20 range would be fair for now.