Seattle Mariners Top 10 Prospects Chat

John Manuel: Thanks for joining. A couple of words of introduction: Josh Leventhal wrote the bulk of our Mariners Top 30, getting the assignment before he left BA for a position with the NC Wildlife magazine. We’re sorry to lose Josh, and JJ and I are doing to the chat as JJ had the M’s last year and I helped finish this year’s Top 30. Also want to give some kudos to Hudson Belinsky for helping write up some of the guys in the Top 30 as well.

Seattle Sam (Seattle): How about answering a question about an Ivy--Leaguer? Dario Pizzano started strong by hitting around .400, then got hurt. He ended up in the AFL. Your thoughts on him?
John Manuel: Pizzano made the Top 30. It was fun to do some of the background on him, as we had him ranked as a hitter in summer college ball, so we have some deep history with him. That hitting track record is what got him ranked. Some scouts see him as purely an organizational player, but he has shown some aptitude, improving his ability to use the entire field. He’s a corner outfielder in a system full of corner outfielders & corner bats. It’s going to be tough for him to crack through as a regular, so he’s not particularly high on the top 30, because he hasn’t shown profile power. But he hits enough to be interesting.

Brent (Canada): Tyler O'Neill tore up high A showcasing his power while stealing a good amount of bases. What prevents him from being considered one of the top prospects in baseball? Is it a fringy arm and defense or questionable hit tool? Seems like his bat would make him a top 50 prospect in the MLB
John Manuel: Brent, O’Neill hit for a lot of power in the Cal League, but as you noted, he’s not a tremendously well-rounded player. If he doesn’t hit for power, he hasn’t shown that he’s above-average in any other attribute. That said, I don’t think it’s fair to say he tore it up there. He had a .316 OBP. That’s not the only measure of a hitter; certainly his power numbers were robust. Also he struck out more than 100 times than he walked, so to me (and the scouts we’ve talked to about O’Neill), there are some doubts about whether or not he’ll hit advanced pitching. His Pan Am Games performance was impressive and helped his confidence. We’ll see how it all carries over to Double-A, but he’s not a Top 100 guy at this point for me.

Grant (NYC): Are you optimistic about Gareth Morgan's chances to be successful at this point? Will he be in the handbook?
John Manuel: He is in the Handbook, but no, I am not optimistic about his chances to be successful in the future, sorry to say. You can’t give up on him because he’s so young, and Rookie-ball stats aren’t that predictive in the grand scheme of things usually. But he’s had such trouble making contact … it’s very hard to be optimistic.

Billy (IL): Is Boog Powell the next Sam Fuld or can he be better than that?
John Manuel: He’s more comparable to Billy Burns than he is to Sam Fuld. He’s hit some; he’s a pretty good runner who needs to improve his basestealing skills. He’s had some hitting success and I like his plate-discipline track record, though I think he may need more Triple-A time. Two asides: I liked the deal for both teams with Karns a nice pickup for Seattle for his durability; also, I can’t believe Sam Fuld has lasted this long in the big leagues!

Kyle W. (Bayard, FL): Seems to be a big year for Austin Cousino. What can we expect from him on the big league level in the future if he takes strides forward in 2016 following injuries?
John Manuel: Cousino’s a nice player, had a good career at Kentucky, but he’s a tough profile as a regular. He’s a good defender in center field, but in the organization, he’d rank behind Boog Powell. He’s a little too aggressive at the plate for his own good and needs more of a table-setter mentality, like Powell. I don’t think he’s got even average power. He’s a grinder and runs well, but the strikeouts as a pro have been a concern, and he struck out a lot in college too. He’s a 4th outfielder at best for me. Big year to see if he can show that he can stay healthy for 140 games.

Greg T. (Lake Central): What has happened to Austin Wilson? Are advanced college-bat guys overrated??? They've always been deemed as "safe" picks, just curious.
John Manuel: I think Wilson was a bit over-rated, and I think the Mariners just have missed on a lot of corner bats toward teh top of the draft in recent years. It’s a demographic the organization has hit very, very hard in recent years, and while we have Alex Jackson No. 1, he struggled big time in 2015 and kind of gets a bit of a mulligan because of his injuries. The other top picks, guys Wilson, DJ Peterson, Gareth Morgan … they’ve all taken rides on the struggle bus. Not just college guys but HS corner bats too. I liked Seattle’s 2015 draft class better with athletes like Drew Jackson and Braden Bishop who can help the team even when they don’t hit. I liked Wilson in college, but those entire top-rated 2010-2011 recruiting classes wound up under-whelming. Wilson, Mark Appel, Brian Ragira, Lonnie Kauppila, AJ Vanegas, Jake Stewart … two years of big-time recruiting classes and I think the Cardinal won just two regionals in four years, didn’t get back to Omaha, and none of those guys looks like a future impact pro except maybe Appel, who has been a disappointment to this point.

Ben (Los Angeles): Given his mid season rank, I imagine Ketel Marte would've topped this list had he not lost his eligibility. What are your thoughts on his performance in the majors so far, and would do you expect of him in the future?
John Manuel: I do believe Marte would have been No. 1 and would have been a potential Top 50 prospect. He had a stellar year for me — made contact, drew walks, improved defensively at shortstop. I’m impressed. Not sure he’s a future star but he looks like a potential solid-average big league shortstop, maybe a tick above-average, and that’s significant potential value.

Brandon F (Poulsbo, WA): Ackley, Zunino, Peterson ... I think it's fair to say these guys were drafted where they were expected to go. It's not like the M's reached on them. So I'm wondering is this just a run of bad luck or can a team's deficiencies in player development really have that dramatic of a negative impact?
John Manuel: Great question. I think it’s a different answer on all three. With Ackley, I was incredibly high on him out of college. I always thought he just should go out as an outfielder or first baseman, even without profile power. I’ve read a lot of opinions on Ackley over the years ; I hope the shift away from Safeco gives us a better read on his bat. Yankee Stadium certainly should play to his favor if he can carve out playing time. Zunino was rushed to the majors; catching is hard and I think Seattle made things harder on him by putting so much on his shoulders. But he also struggled with breaking balls in college and wasn’t a dominant hitter. I thought he’d be a .250-.260 hitter with 15-20 homers and tremendous intangibles, but his inability to control the strike zone has kept him from reaching that ceiling. Peterson … he’s just not as strong as he was earlier in his career, and he was a strength-based hitter, not a guy with tremendous whip or bat speed. If you have a strength-based approach and then lose strength, you’re in trouble. We have some reports of work ethic issues as well that have to be disappointing to the organization and his old college coach Ray Birmingham at New Mexico.

JD (AZ): John, what can you tell us about the DSL guys heading to AZL in 2016, especially interested in Greifer Andrade? Thanks
John Manuel: That’s a deep cut … Greifer Andrade signed as an outfielder with the M’s but they shifted him to third base in the DSL, and they think he has a chance to stay there. Right now, it’s a contact-oriented offensive approach with some gap power potential but a flatter swing path. He is one of the guys they are looking forward to the most coming from their overseas teams and making his US debut in 2016 in the AZL. Good pull.

Harold Reynolds' step son (Seattle): I am excited at Dan Altavilla. Think he showed he can start in 2015. Do you and scouts agree? ETA?
John Manuel: I don’t think anyone, perhaps excepting the Altavilla family, sees Dan as a future starter. He throws hard, he’s got the system’s best slider and he’s aggressive, with a potentially durable body that could make him a workhorse middle reliever. Our reports indicate his feel for changing speeds and locating his changeup (which he uses rarely) just isn’t sufficient for going through the lineup three and four times per game. That said, he’s got some “bulldog” reports and seems to pitch better than scouts expect upon their first impression. Maybe he’s a guy that keeps exceeding expectations. He’s got a full report in the Handbook.

Norm Chouinard (Connecticut): Did Tim Lopes turn the corner this year?
John Manuel: Not really. He didn’t quite make the Handbook, though i did actually write him up for the back of the 30. He was a late cut, mostly because of his utter lack of power. He’s shifted down the defensive spectrum to 2B; he lacks pop. He’s a RH-hitting future utility guy in a best-case big league scenario for him. I do like that he came on in the 2nd half and had his best month in August. But it’s hard to see him having impact tools that would play as a big league regular.

John Manuel: I’m going to let JJ Cooper take over from here. My kids are bugging me to get out in the snow! Seems like a good time to hand off the baton. A reminder that we wrap up Top 10s next week with the Rangers on Tuesday, and that all 30 org top 10s will be up at that time. We’ll that with a final, trade-adjust Top 10 wrapup and organization talent rankings while barraging you with college preview and 2016 draft coverage. Great time to subscribe to BA if you don’t already and to purchase the Prospect Handbook! Thanks for your interest. — JM

J.J. Cooper: Hey everyone. I’ll hop in now and answer a few more. Thanks for coming out on what is a very cold and sleety day here in North Carolina.

Frank (Chicago): Is Alex Jackson likely the only BA top 100 guy here?
J.J. Cooper: Yes, probably. Drew Jackson could easily move onto next year’s Top 100 with a big 2016, but as great as his debut was, you still want to see him do it over a longer season. And Edwin Diaz could crack the 2017 Top 100 with a strong year. Beyond them, there aren’t a lot of guys on this list who look like potential future Top 100 guys either.

Warren (New London): Tyler O'Neill is only 6 months older than Alex Jackson and had much more success in 2015, granted that the California League is a great place for his type of hitter. If he was still a catcher I could see it, but if they're both outfielders, what puts Jackson ahead of O'Neill?
J.J. Cooper: Jackson had a terrible 2015. No way to dress it up, but we’re not basing these rankings on just what they did in 2015. Jackson was considered the consensus top high school bat in the 2014 draft class. He has the potential to hit for average and power, even if he didn’t show that in 2015. O’Neill is a slugger, but that’s what’s he’s going to bring offensively–lot of power, lot of strikeouts and likely not much of a batting average. The hope for the Mariners is that 2015 was a step back for Jackson that quickly gets forgotten.

dave (grayson, ga): On average, how many people does the writer talk with when putting together an organization's top 30?
J.J. Cooper: It’s hard to put an exact number on it as it’s an ongoing conversation. Speaking for myself, I’ll try to talk to 5-7 sources for a Top 30 before I sit down to write it, but then there are likely another 10-15 people we’ve talked to during the season with info that becomes valuable for the Top 30. A conversation with a scout in April may give insight into a player’s early-season struggles. A call with a coach in September adds some more info. The dozen coaches and scouts we talk to when putting together a League Top 20 Prospects list also will provide a lot of good info. It’s a long-running conversation that all crystallizes into the Top 10 and the Top 30 in the Prospect Handbook.

Todd Albright (Chicago): Who in your Top 10 could make an impact on the Mariners roster in 2016?
J.J. Cooper: Powell is likely the only one. If you are digging deeper, Tony Zych, who made the Top 30, is still prospect eligible and could play a role in the Mariners’ bullpen.

Chris (Fayetteville, NC): Just freezing rain here in Fayetteville ... I know he's not prospect-eligible anymore, but do you have any hope for the "Ice Cream Man," Jesus Montero?
J.J. Cooper: It wouldn’t stun me to see him have a productive 300-400 at-bats at some point. Scouts who saw him last year said that they wouldn’t abandon all hope. The problem is as a bat-only DH/1B, the path to getting those 300-400 at-bats is quite tough. It was a lot easier to earn playing time when he was at least a part-time catcher.

Karl of Delaware (Georgetown, Delaware): How's the Handbook coming along? Waiting on it so I can see who Seattle's top 30 are. The earliest I've gotten it is Jan. 25th in 2013 and the latest was Feb. 5, 2014, so I'm eagerly watching for the mailman every day now.
J.J. Cooper: Hopefully this weather here on the East Coast won’t slow it down but we are just waiting for it to get back from the printer. Once the books arrive at the office Ronnie McCabe and our customer service department gets them shipped out as quick as possible. So soon. Very soon.

Bob (Palo Alto): Drew Jackson #3?? Is that more an indictment of the M's system or are we putting a ton of stock in a SA season here? He did not even hit .300 in college or the Cape until late in his jr and even then it was limited damage. I get the 70 arm and 70 speed, but you got to hit to be a legit ML prospect don't you?
J.J. Cooper: There is at least some reason to believe this is a step forward because he got a vision issue corrected. It’s hard to hit when you can’t see very well. Yes, it’s a small sample size so far but there is reason to think the Mariners’ got a steal. Jackson has always had impressive tools. Now that he’s hitting too, there’s a lot to like.

TJ (Cancun): Luis Liberato has the tools to be in the top 2-3 in this system, no?
J.J. Cooper: Yeah. He has some of the best tools in the system. It was a rough start to 2015 for him, but to his credit he bounced back after his demotion. There’s some power, some speed, defensive value and a swing that has gotten a lot better since he became a pro. Lot to dream on.

adironback (Syracuse, NY): Who reaches the majors first, Alex Jackson or Jake Gatewood?
J.J. Cooper: Obviously both have a long ways to go to prove they can make the big leagues even but I’d say Jackson has a better shot.

JY (Chicago): While this list probably isn't going to strike fear of what's coming into the rest of the division, it seems like there's a bit of hope remaining at the bottom of the box. What are the thoughts on the '15 draft, moving past the early college focus and into the HS pitchers like Neidert, Thompson, Mobley, Inman, and Orozco?
J.J. Cooper: Actually if you are the Angels and you look at your farm system after the Newcomb trade you might be ever so slightly envious. I like that the Mariners zigged where they had zagged. This is a draft where they went after arms and some up the middle college bats. That was a needed correction after drafting a whole lot of corner bats whose value depended entirely on their hitting ability in previous drafts.

Dave (Seattle): Jordy Lara - future 3B or 1B down the line? Is he in the Handbook?
J.J. Cooper: He’s no longer a Mariner. He was a minor league free agent who signed with the Braves. He won’t rank in the Handbook in a very deep Braves system.

Patrick (Sandpoint, idaho): Can you tell us where Patrick Kivlehan would have ranked and since you saw him more, what you believe his prognosis is for his MLB future in Texas?
J.J. Cooper: He won’t crack the Rangers Top 10 but he likely would have be in the 8-12 range in the Mariners’ system. More and more he looks like a usable bench bat at the big league level with a chance to provide versatility since he can play a multitude of positions.

Grant (NYC): What's the word on Luis Liberato? Future regular or 4th OF? Will he be in the top 30?
J.J. Cooper: Easily in the Top 30. Could crack the Top 10 next year with a strong year of full season ball.

a.j. (las vegas): Should the Mariners just trade their prospects for any value they can receive for the major league club as they try to win now?
J.J. Cooper: There’s not much here to trade. I do think Jerry DiPoto has shown quite the willingness to trade fringe prospects to try to improve the big league roster. But the Top 10 guys in this system are a lot of guys who have decreased trade value because of bad 2015 seasons. You can trade Alex Jackson right now, but by doing so, you are essentially selling off right after the stock market just tanked. If Jackson bounces back in 2016, he has a lot more value than what he has right now. Is it worth trading D.J. Peterson when he would garner little interest? Yes, there’s a chance he never bounces back, but the upside of seeing him return to his draft form is much higher than the little dip in trade value the Mariners would see from holding him and seeing him struggle again in 2016.

J.J. Cooper: Thanks everyone for the questions. We’re oh-so-close to finishing up our Top 10s. The final Top 10 (Rangers) with Ben Badler will roll out on Tuesday, Jan. 26.