Seattle Mariners Breakout MLB Prospects Entering 2024

Entering 2024, we’re examining multiple Mariners prospects on the verge of a breakout season. To qualify as a breakout prospect for this exercise, a player must rank outside the Top 10 Prospects in his organization entering the year.

You can find all of our preseason prospect rankings here and a link to breakouts for all 30 teams here.

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Breakout Prospects

Aidan Smith, OF

Preseason rank: 19
BA Grade: 50. Risk: Extreme.

TRACK RECORD: Smith largely stayed off the summer showcase circuit and wasn’t well known, but Mariners area scout Patrick O’Grady identified him early and kept highlighting Smith to his superiors. Smith made that look prescient by batting .491 in a huge senior season at Lovejoy (Lucas, Texas) High and followed with an impressive showing at the draft combine. The Mariners drafted him in the fourth round and signed him for an above-slot $1.2 million bonus to forgo a Mississippi State commitment.

SCOUTING REPORT: Smith is a physical athlete whose baseball skills are rapidly progressing. He has a projectable 6-foot-3, 190-pound frame and drives balls 400-plus feet in batting practice with plus raw power. He hits balls hard when he connects and has room to keep getting stronger and add more power. Smith is still a raw hitter with a top-heavy, rotational swing and poor breaking ball recognition. He has good hand-eye coordination but needs time to improve his swing and pitch recognition. He has the potential to be a fringe-average hitter with 20-home run power if everything clicks. Smith is much more polished on defense. He’s a plus runner underway who runs pristine routes and is a borderline plus-plus defender in center field. He has above-average arm strength that flashes higher.

THE FUTURE: Smith’s defense in center field will give him time to develop as a hitter. He has a chance to be an everyday center fielder if everything clicks.

Scouting Grades
Hitting: 45. Power: 50. Run: 60. Fielding: 65. Arm: 55.

Darren Bowen, RHP

Preseason rank: 24
BA Grade: 45. Risk: Very High.

TRACK RECORD: Bowen struggled to a 5.43 ERA over three seasons as a starter and reliever at Division II UNC Pembroke, but the Mariners liked his athleticism and arm strength and drafted him in the 12th round. Bowen rewarded their faith with a strong pro debut at Low-A Modesto in 2023. He joined the Nuts at midseason and worked his way from the bullpen to the rotation, posting a 3.88 ERA over 19 appearances (15 starts) to help them win the California League championship.

SCOUTING REPORT: Bowen is a lean, athletic righthander with lots of room for growth. His fastball sits 92-94 mph with late run and ride and projects to add velocity as he gets stronger. His main secondary is a sweepy, 81-85 mph slider with tight spin that flashes above average, but is inconsistent. Bowen also has a fringy, 84-87 mph changeup with sink he is still learning to command and an 86-89 mph cutter that flashes average. Bowen is a good athlete, but he doesn’t repeat his delivery and has below-average control. He has never thrown more than 90 pitches in a start and still has to build durability.

THE FUTURE: Bowen’s athleticism and projection excite, but he still needs a lot of development to fulfill his starter potential. He’ll open at High-A Everett in 2024.

Scouting Grades
Fastball: 55. Slider: 55. Cutter: 50. Changeup: 45. Control: 40.

Jeter Martinez, RHP

Preseason rank: 30
BA Grade: 45. Risk: Extreme.

TRACK RECORD: Martinez originally developed as a position player in Mexico before converting to pitching when he was 15. He took to pitching rapidly and emerged as one of the most intriguing righthanders in the 2023 international class, leading the Mariners to sign him for $600,000 when the signing period opened. Martinez made his pro debut in the Dominican Summer League after signing and starred as one of the league’s top pitchers. He led the DSL with a 0.79 WHIP and .109 opponent average among qualified pitchers and finished fifth with a 1.72 ERA.

SCOUTING REPORT: Martinez is a broad-shouldered righthander with a projectable, 6-foot-4, 180-pound frame. His heavy fastball sits 92-93 mph and reaches the mid 90s out of a quick arm and easy, athletic delivery. His velocity has already increased rapidly in a short time and should continue ticking up as he fills out. Martinez shows aptitude for throwing a curveball and changeup, but both offerings are raw due to his lack of pitching experience. His athleticism and easy delivery should yield at least average control as he gains strength.

THE FUTURE: Martinez is as projectable as any pitcher in the Mariners system. He’ll make his stateside debut in the Arizona Complex League in 2024.

Scouting Grades
Fastball: 60. Slider: 40. Changeup: 40. Control: 50.