Scouts Get Defensive Projecting Future Roles

When scouting amateur catchers, bring in the man who wrote the book on catchers.

The Rockies were able to do that this spring, including at the Atlantic Coast Conference tournament in Durham, N.C., in late May. Jerry Weinstein, the longtime college coach and player-development official, wrote “The Complete Handbook Of Coaching Catchers” two years ago, trying to summarize his 40 years of working with and coaching players at the position.

Weinstein was bearing down on the catchers (among other items on his agenda) two weeks before the draft, as the ACC brimmed with them this spring. Miami’s Zack Collins and Virginia’s Matt Thaiss, bat-first backstops with lefthanded power, were expected to go in the first round, while Clemson’s Chris Okey and Louisville’s fast-rising Will Smith were potential top 50 picks as well.

He watched, along with the dozens of other scouts on hand, as Collins struggled with his throwing; as Thaiss mashed but also boxed pitches he should have handled cleanly; as Smith jolted scouts with his athleticism and bat; and as Okey helped lead Clemson to a title by playing with energy, producing at the plate and leading in the clubhouse.

It’s all factored into where those players go in the draft. Part of the projection involves how an amateur’s defense will play at the pro level. The main key, even when evaluating college players who have longer track records and an assumed level of polish, is to remember what the minor leagues are all about.

It’s about player development. And in the minors, nothing develops quite like defense.

“Pro baseball has a tolerance for labor pains,” Weinstein said with a smile. “I’m a believer that everything can be taught in player development. That’s the entire point of the minor leagues.

“Otherwise, why are we all there? We could just roll the balls out there, let the guys play and let them figure it out themselves.”

Draft boards get lined up based in part on where the players profile to play in the big leagues, with a priority placed on the middle of the diamond. That’s how the 2015 draft class wound up with three straight shortstops at the top of the draft, and it’s a reason why the 2016 class could see up to four catchers drafted in the first 50 selections.

But projecting where those amateur players will wind up playing as big leaguers depends on both their offensive ability and their defensive tools. Players with above-average arms will get a shot to stay on the left side of the infield or may get a shot at catching. (Think Buster Posey, who made the move from shortstop to catcher while at Florida State). Light feet, soft hands, short-area quickness and agile actions are required for middle infielders, and the level of athleticism for premium positions rises as offensive levels in the game fall.

Figuring out where 2016 draft picks such as outfielders Kyle Lewis of Mercer and Corey Ray of Louisville and Tennessee third baseman Nick Senzel—not to mention all those catchers—will play will determine, in large part, where they are selected in the draft. In the end, what scouts are looking for to be confident in projecting a player’s future position, and how much value he will bring relative to his draft position, depends not just on tools but on his desire to defend.

Two major leaguers stand out as recent examples of players who defied early expectations from their amateur careers to become premium big league defenders.

Cubs shortstop Addison Russell, 22, is still writing his big league story. The 6-foot, 200-pound Russell used to be compared with Juan Uribe as a prep junior at Pace High, just north of Pensacola, Fla., but a heart-to-heart with his 18U national team coach, ex-big leaguer Scott Brosius, helped point him in the right direction physically.

“Addison Russell changed his body after that summer with Team USA,” said a scouting director, who requested anonymity. “That tells you about work ethic and makeup. That’s what gets lost in all this, kids’ makeup and that sense of entitlement.

“Some kids are just trying to get drafted, to get that payday in the draft. Some look at it as an end in itself, (and) not a means to an end. The ones who don’t are the ones who improve.”

Russell’s improvement started as an amateur, and he went 11th overall in the 2012 draft. Nolan Arenado’s improvement also started before the draft and continued once he got into pro ball, after the Rockies picked him in the second round of the 2009 draft out of El Toro High in Lake Forest, Calif.

BA’s draft report on Arenado mentioned his “soft frame” during the 2008 Area Code Games and “absence of athletic ability,” then continued, “but he has since transformed himself.” Arenado was a high school shortstop whose good hands and arm strength had scouts mulling a move behind the plate, but he focused on improving his defense at third base after signing.

Weinstein managed Arenado at high Class A Modesto in 2011, and while his agame and body were still developing, “Defensively, Arenado was the same guy in Modesto that he is now,” he said. “Just incredible.”

Arenado and Russell were high schoolers who had youth on their side. Projecting college players often proves more troublesome, yet scouts still have to project on many of this year’s top talents, such as deciding whether or not Ray and Lewis can play center field, or if Senzel—who shifted from third base to shortstop for Tennessee for a dozen games—can stay in the infield, after scouts in the Cape League last year thought the summer league’s MVP may fit best in left field.

Scouts have lauded Senzel for taking to coaching by respected assistant coach Larry Simcox and looking more natural defensively. He thrived playing shortstop for the Volunteers in the second half and should be able to stay in the infield, though not at short.

Ray still earns mixed reviews. He has limited exposure at in center field (just 21 games this season) despite being an easy plus runner with the requisite speed for center. Some scouts believe Ray could be an average defender in center field with proper instruction; others believe he’s a corner outfielder, period.

As one area scout who has Kentucky coverage put it, “Corey Ray has played 150 games for a pretty good program. Those guys are pretty well-prepared there. I wouldn’t project him much. He’s pretty much going to be what he is.”

Clubs have tried similar shifts before. The Astros drafted Derek Fisher out of Virginia in 2014 in the second round. Fisher said he never played center field in three seasons for the Cavaliers and faced questions about his routes and instincts. But in instructional league of ‘14 he moved to center, and he believes there’s no going back.

He cited having a position coach, unlimited time to work on his defense and practice shagging flyballs in center, and game experience without the pressure of having to win every game, as reasons for his defensive improvement as a pro.

“It’s all about reps,” said Fisher, now playing at Double-A Corpus Christi. “You think you worked hard in college, but instructional league, spring training, then a much longer season—you just get so much more time to weed out bad habits and get into good ones.”

Ray wants to be like Fisher, though of course he didn’t put it that way. “I can play center field, and I can be an elite center fielder,” he said. “Wherever you stick me, I can be elite . . . If you want to stick me in center, you’ll have a plus defender in center.”

Their ability to play defense isn’t why Ray, Lewis, Senzel or other draft prospects will get picked in the first round. They’re going to go high because of their bats. Their defensive projection and future positions just add to the picture and enhance their value.

“(Colleges) don’t have time to fungo you for an hour and do stuff with you individually like they do in pro ball, and you’ll get better by repetition and be serviceable enough,” said one scout who used to be a college coach. “You don’t want him to be a zero defensively. But the fact of the matter is, to get to the big leagues, you’re gonna have to hit.”

Contributing: Hudson Belinsky, Mike Lananna