Sam Carlson Climbing Up Draft Boards

Since 2000, only 12 players have been drafted and signed out of Minnesota high schools. So far, only two of those players have reached the majors—Brad Hand and Joe Mauer.

Burnsville (Minn.) High senior righthander Sam Carlson is the best prospect to come out of the Gopher State since Mauer, and he’s often linked to current Athletics righthander Logan Shore, a 2013 graduate of Coon Rapids (Minn.) High. Shore was picked in the 29th round that year, but he chose instead to enroll at Florida, where his fastball-changeup combo helped him dominate the Southeastern Conference for three years. Shore was a second-round pick of the A’s last June. Carlson is also committed to Florida.

On the summer showcase circuit as a rising senior, Carlson earned attention for his fastball-changeup combo as well. He pitched mostly at 90-91 mph with his fastball, and his changeup was an out pitch for him, especially against lefthanded hitters. Carlson showed flashes with his breaking ball—a loopy, upper 70s curveball—but he wasn’t satisfied with where the pitch was at.

“I started throwing a changeup when I was real young,” Carlson said. “Up here, it’s kind of like you don’t really throw a breaking ball until you’re like 15 years old because they say it’s going to hurt your elbow. So I developed the changeup when I was like 12 and I’ve been throwing it my whole life and it’s been like my bread and butter. Then I started working on a breaking ball and last summer it was there . . . It was more of a curveball—loopy. It wasn’t really a swing and miss pitch and that’s something I’ve always wanted, just being a tall physical righthander. I wanted more of a harder, swing-and-miss slider.”

Shore and Carlson have a relationship. When Carlson’s high school team traveled to Arizona this spring, the two shared a meal together and talked about pitching.

“We were just talking for a while and we were talking about sliders,” Carlson said. “It’s not that you have to make it move. You don’t have to see it move when you throw it, you just have to let it move on its own and it doesn’t have to have as much bite. . . I was physically watching it move across the strike zone.”

Carlson says his slider has been better since that conversation with Shore.

“Now it’s a lot sharper, harder and it’s got later bite and it’s harder to pick up because it’s starting more in the same tunnel as my fastball and not popping up like an obvious curveball does.”

The growth of his slider has helped Carlson go from being an intriguing, projectable arm from a cold-weather climate to a potential first-round pick in June. He’s also taken significant steps in terms of his velocity and strength.

Carlson focused on getting stronger and more athletic in the spring. He’d lift weights four days a week, with deadlifts being a primary focus for him as he aimed to strengthen his entire body. Carlson also added yoga to his routine to trade some of his stiffness for looseness.

“When I was down at the USA (Baseball) 40-man trials, we were doing a mobility workout and I was just terrible with my flexibility and my mobility. It was actually just brutal to see myself and see everyone else,” Carlson said. “So I did tons of yoga and I think that helped a lot too because I used to be really stiff and being a big guy you’re always going to be stiff but I feel like yoga loosened me up a little bit and I think it helped with my pitching.”

Carlson is a big fan of long toss, but the frigid Minnesota winter makes it impossible to throw outside until March or early April. Beginning in January, Carlson was able to long toss on Tuesdays during preseason practices held in a dome. He also did a variation of Driveline Baseball’s pulldowns.

Driveline’s pulldowns have pitchers throw balls of different weights with maximum effort from flat ground. Pitchers use balls ranging from three to seven ounces. Carlson used balls from four to six ounces to train for two weeks. He hit 100 mph during a pulldown with a weighted ball.

“A lot of people credit velocity improvement to that and I think it helped me a lot,” Carlson said. “But I didn’t do a full Driveline program or anything like that. I think that a lot of my improvements this offseason were just from taking care of my body every single day. Getting stronger and just fine-tuning things mechanically and becoming more efficient.”

Carlson’s fastball has reached the mid-90s this spring and his slider works in the low 80s; most scouts project it to develop into a 50 or 55 on the 20-80 scouting scale. His changeup has shown plus potential and his athleticism and deceptive delivery give him an exciting overall profile.

“Last summer it was a 35 or 40 breaking ball most of the time,” one scout said. “The spin just wasn’t great. The velocity you knew would come. His breaking ball has been the bigger development. It’s a true slider with more of a sharp later break at 82-84, not much hump in it, not much curve too it; he throws it hard with slider intent.”

“He’s done everything to put him in first-round consideration. Everyone loves the kid. He had a good fall and worked hard.”

Carlson’s progress this offseason was as good as any prospect in the country. He’s still looking to fine-tune his mechanics and further consider his own development, but right now he’s focused on competing for a state championship.

“Right now I just want to focus on winning a state championship with my friends,” he said. “After that’s all said and done I’ll get into the analytics, but this is my senior season and we’ve got the playoffs coming around. I just want to be efficient and win ball games. There’s nothing in mind that I’m trying to focus on except getting on the rubber next start.”