RoboScout Top MLB Prospects At Every Level On Sept. 1, 2024

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All of a sudden we find ourselves in September, the final long weekend of the summer, and we have less than 15% of the fantasy season remaining.

Geoff and I (and RoboScout) are furiously working on our FYPD rankings. The list will incorporate Statcast—both NCAA and MiLB—and NCAA Stuff+ for pitchers to inform the ranks and help you in your dynasty leagues.

The Dominican Summer League is complete, so I won’t be including them in the weekly updates moving forward. You can find final hitter rankings here.

The RoboScout pitching model was tweaked this past week. I slightly altered the weighting of Stuff+ in the RoboScore at each level. From a macro point of view, the Stuff+ adjustment was lowered slightly within the aggregate weightings, which should reflect even better projection accuracy. The pitching rankings below reflect the output of the new model.

As a reminder, the RoboScore is the value (0 to 100) assigned per level by RoboScout based on 2024 statistical performance and projecting fantasy value (without considering defensive ability or position). The RoboCast number is the RoboScore but with Statcast blended in and then transposed to the 0 to 100 scale.

Low-A Hitters (min 25 PA)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1Leodalis De VriesSDP100100
2Colt EmersonSEA8693
3Michael ArroyoSEA8690
4Eric BitontiMIL8389
5Aidan SmithTBR8488
6Franklin AriasBOS8488
7Demetrio CrisantesARI7987
8Zyhir HopeLAD7987
9Kevin McGonigleDET8287
10Robert CalazCOL8485
11Blake MitchellKCR7985
12Jaison ChourioCLE8084
13Lazaro MontesSEA8982
14Jonny FarmeloSEA7681
15Walker JenkinsMIN7681
16Arjun NimmalaTOR8381
17Josue De PaulaLAD7380
18Luis MerejoCLE7680
19Pablo GuerreroTEX7980
20Yeremi CabreraTEX7880
21Eduardo TaitPHI8578
22Welbyn FranciscaCLE7877
23Jeral PerezLAD7477
24Eduardo QuinteroLAD7277
25Max ClarkDET7676

Rangers outfielder Pablo Guerrero appeared in the top 50 of RoboScout’s non-debuted Top 100 two weeks ago, but I haven’t discussed him in-depth this season. It’s not for lack of production. Instead, it’s likely an artifact of his weekly or seasonal performance being overshadowed by other names. What Vlad Jr.’s little brother has done this year, though, has been quite noteworthy.

Guerrero, who turned 18 a month ago, reached full-season ball as a 17-year-old after hitting seven home runs over 210 plate appearances at the complex and putting up a 119 wRC+. When Vlad Jr. was 17 years old in 2016, he hit eight home runs in 276 plate appearances with a similar 122 wRC+ in short-season ball. Although similar production on first blush, the Blue Jays’ current corner infield star only struck out 13% of the time in 2016 whereas his younger brother has struck out at a 30% pace.

Pablo’s hit tool lags behind, but the underlying thump is impressive. He has the highest 90th percentile exit velocity of any hitter in their age-17 season, and he also has the highest xwOBAcon and barrel rate of any stateside 17-year old. Add it all together, and it looks a future MLB bat that is better than league average with the potential for 25 or more home runs. As is a common refrain, he will need to keep his strikeouts in check and watch his conditioning.

It’s an extremely small sample, but here are the highest-ranked 2024 draftees at Low-A with a minimum of 25 plate appearances:

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1Cam SmithCHC6776
2Nick KurtzOAK6575
3Ethan AndersonBAL6170
4Callan MossKCR6270
5Brendan JonesNYY5868
6Ian PetrutzSTL5967
7Jared ThomasCOL6067
8Sam AntonacciCHW5766
9Robert HipwellSFG5566
10Aaron ParkerTOR6065

Cubs first-rounder Cam Smith was the second-highest 2024 draftee in Low-A last week. As you would expect after six consecutive games with a home run, he is now the top-ranked draft pick. He hit six homers in 57 plate appearances before earning a promotion to High-A, hinting at 30-homer potential in the big leagues. That’s supported by his 106 mph 90th percentile exit velocity (on 30 balls in play).

Coming out of the draft, we converted his 2024 contact rate at Florida State to be be equivalent to a 72% in the minor leagues and he currently sports a 76% contact rate and an 18% chase rate. Of course, this is an unsustainable heater, but it’s an excellent start to his professional career which will no doubt make him a popular late first-round target in upcoming FYPDs.

Low-A Pitchers (min 15 IP)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1Matt WilkinsonCLE100100
2Travis SykoraWSN9596
3Jonah TongNYM9192
4Quinn MathewsSTL8689
5Alejandro RosarioTEX8587
6Didier FuentesATL8386
7Jarlin SusanaWSN8185
8George KlassenLAA8184
9Yujanyer HerreraMIL8484
10Santiago SuarezTBR7983
11Grant TaylorCHW7783
12Trevor HarrisonTBR8082
13Kohl DrakeTEX8282
14Anderson BritoHOU7479
15Sean LinanLAD8079
16Gary Gill HillTBR7878
17Jojo IngrassiaBOS7978
18Jace KaminskaCOL7677
19Alex ClemmeyWSN7776
20Mavis GravesPHI7876
21Christian ZazuetaLAD7576
22Josh KnothMIL7576
23Gabriel ReyesDET7876
24Michael KennedyPIT7876
25Elmer Rodriguez-CruzBOS7575

RoboScout likes 19-year-old Dodgers righty Christian Zazueta. On the season for Low-A Rancho Cucamonga, Zazueta has a 27% strikeout rate with a 1.50 WHIP and 6.85 ERA over 47.1 innings, which isn’t particularly compelling. However, over his last six starts, he has a 33% strikeout rate with a 1.03 WHIP and 2.55 ERA. He throws a 92 mph four-seamer from a lowish slot that comes in flat with a -4.4 VAA. His 80 mph slider and 83 mph changeup both get over 30% whiffs. He has been spotting a curveball, too, that has more downer action than his slider. He doesn’t project as much more than an emergency starter right now, but his youth and the Dodgers’ pitching development machine suggests you should keep an eye on him.

Braves 6-foot-8 righty Garrett Baumann was a fourth-round pick out of high school in 2023. He just turned 20 two weeks ago. Baumann on the season has a pedestrian 22% strikeout rate while pitching to contact with a 12% swinging strike rate. Over his last four starts, however, Baumann has the third-highest swinging strike rate in Low-A among pitchers 21 years old or younger, trailing only Travis Sykora (Nationals) and Juan Valera (Red Sox). This has naturally translated into increased strikeouts (a 34.5% rate during that span) and a 1.81 xFIP.

From a stuff perspective, as one would expect from his build, the tall righthander has a fairly high release point and extremely high extension. As a result, his 93 mph fastball doesn’t have flat pitch design, but has touched 98 mph. He also throws an 84 mph slider and solid 86 mph changeup with over a foot of fade. With the intimidating build and good athleticism, the prep pitching prospect has been consistently showing back-of-the-rotation potential over the last month. We’ll keep an eye on him as he finishes out the season in High-A Rome.

High-A Hitters (min 25 PA)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1Michael ArroyoSEA100100
2Luke AdamsMIL9395
3Luke KeaschallMIN9295
4Colt EmersonSEA9194
5Cam CollierCIN9493
6Bryce EldridgeSFG9092
7Sebastian WalcottTEX9992
8Lazaro MontesSEA9992
9Kevin McGonigleDET8790
10Sal StewartCIN8589
11Walker JenkinsMIN8689
12Josue De PaulaLAD8388
13Thayron LiranzoDET8487
14Xavier IsaacTBR9087
15Carter JensenKCR8686
16Jhostynxon GarciaBOS8084
17Alex FreelandLAD7783
18Max ClarkDET8182
19William BergollaCHW8281
20Jesus BaezNYM8081
21Cooper IngleCLE7480
22Brayden TaylorTBR8080
23Ralphy VelazquezCLE7980
24Tre’ MorganTBR7679
25Mike BoeveMIL7179

With 10 home runs in his last 118 plate appearances, Bryce Eldridge (Giants) is the hottest hitter in the minor leagues and now ranks No. 6 on the High-A list. His quality of contact is some of the best in the minor leagues, witch essentially plus-plus barrel rates against all pitch types, which more than overcomes the below-average contact rate and average chase rate. On the season, he has a 16% walk rate and 25% strikeout rate, which projects him to be a .250 to. 260 bat with 25 to 30 home runs. RoboScout thinks he’s one of the top first base fantasy prospects in the minors and a top 25 fantasy prospect.

A pair of High-A Everett prospects, Michael Arroyo and Lazaro Montes, have also caught fire—er…more accurately, have maintained their fire, with 15 home runs between them since July 29. Of the two, RoboScout prefers Arroyo—after all, his Low-A performance was top five and his High-A performance is top of the pops—and views him as a player who will provide an above-average major league bat, solid keystone defense and 25-homer juice while not turning 20 years old until November. Arroyo is a top 20 fantasy prospect in 2024, per RoboScout.

What Eldridge and Arroyo have been doing at High-A is quite impressive. Since 2006, the following are the top wRC+ for hitters, 19 years old or younger, at High-A with a minimum of 150 plate appearances:

Eldridge and Arroyo are No. 3 and No. 10, respectively.

The only teenagers who have reached full-season ball this season who have a better in-zone contact rate than Tigers infielder Kevin McGonigle are Starlyn Caba (Phillies) and William Bergolla (White Sox). We’ve discussed Caba and his elite shortstop defense before, but he has only produced a 62 wRC+ in 99 Low-A plate appearances.

Bergolla, on the other hand, was acquired from the Phillies for Tanner Banks at the trade deadline and has managed a 113 wRC+ in a High-A season spanning 357 plate appearances, with an even better 126 wRC+ across the last five weeks. Although his 98.1 mph 90th percentile exit velocity lags behind McGonigle’s 103.1 mph, keep in mind that McGonigle achieved those velocities mostly against Low-A pitching. Also note that Bergolla’s xwOBAcon, which pairs launch angle with exit velocity to assess a batted ball profile’s ability to create runs, is higher than McGonigle’s.

RoboScout projects Bergolla to be a competent major league bat with above-average batting average and on-base percentage with the ability to steal 20+ bases. Although there isn’t much present game power yet—he may only peak at around 10 home runs in his best major league seasons—Bergolla has recorded a batted ball at 110 mph, hinting at his potential. He’s a very underrated fantasy prospect.

It’s again an extremely small sample, but here are the highest-ranked 2024 draftees at Low-A with a minimum of 24 plate appearances:

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1Cam SmithCHC6877
2Brendan JonesNYY6372
3Travis BazzanaCLE5663
4Dylan DreilingTEX5462
5Kaelen CulpepperMIN5461

The Yankees drafted Kansas State center fielder Brendan Jones in the 12th round this year, and he has has performed admirably in his pro debut. In 41 Low-A plate appearances, the 22-year-old hit a home run, stole five bases, and had a 209 wRC+, earning the promotion to High-A. At Hudson Valley, he’s continued where he left off with two more home runs and seven stolen bases (he still hasn’t been caught) in his first 33 plate appearances.

Under the hood, Jones has shown a selective approach with plus contact ability, and a league-average xwOBAcon. His hot start suggests a 15-homer, 25-steal bat in the major leagues. It’s still too early to see if his selective approach will play against advanced pitching, but right now the Yankees have to be pleased with their $150,000 signee from the last day of the draft.

High-A Pitchers (min 15 IP)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1Alejandro RosarioTEX100100
2Matt WilkinsonCLE9997
3Quinn MathewsSTL9696
4Noah SchultzCHW9396
5Jarlin SusanaWSN9496
6Owen MurphyATL9394
7Luis PeralesBOS9194
8Chase DollanderCOL9092
9Sean SullivanCOL9592
10K.C. HuntMIL9391
11Kohl DrakeTEX9391
12Jedixson PaezBOS9389
13Zebby MatthewsMIN8587
14George KlassenLAA8687
15Jonah TongNYM8887
16Alessandro ErcolaniPIT8386
17Owen WildTBR8383
18Thomas WhiteMIA8283
19Moises ChacePHI7982
20Ryan LobusTEX8282
21Jaden HammDET8381
22Ethan PeckoHOU8281
23Andry LaraWSN8381
24Yujanyer HerreraCOL8280
25Ty JohnsonCHC8080

Last week I touched on Ty Johnson (Rays) as one of the hottest pitchers of the month since joining High-A Bowling Green for the Rays. Johnson added a six-inning, 11-strikeout and zero walk performance to his resume this past week. The early returns seem to suggest yet another Rays pitching development success, and he now finds himself in the top 25 for the level.

Rays righty Owen Wild is another Bowling Green pitcher who has been nearly as hot as Johnson over the past five weeks. Wild struck out nine batters and walked only one last week over six innings against High-A Hickory. Over four appearances since July 29, the 21-year-old righthander has the highest swinging strike rate at the level with a 23.4% mark.

Although his four-seam fastball only sits 91 mph, it does come in very flat and with high extension. His slider and changeup both get better than average whiffs. Despite the torrid streak and solid season overall, Wild appears to be a ‘sum of his parts’ pitcher who seems to be outperforming his back-of-the-rotation starter profile. RoboScout, though, from a purely dispassionate standpoint, projects his expected major league performance to be in the same bucket as more highly-regarded Jaden Hamm (Tigers) and Winston Santos (Rangers).

Yet another Bowling Green pitcher, Jackson Baumeister, might be the hottest of them all. The Rays acquired him from the Orioles in the Zach Eflin trade. In his six appearances since the trade spanning 24 innings, the righthander has a 0.63 WHIP and 1.13 ERA with 35 strikeouts and only four walks. He was already compelling thanks four pitches that get over 30% whiffs: a 93 mph four-seamer with big extension, a downer curveball, a changeup with over a foot of fade and a slider. The Rays seem to have unlocked something, or perhaps more accurately have helped enable Baumeister to unleash his arsenal more effectively.

Double-A Hitters (min 25 PA)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1Emmanuel RodriguezMIN100100
2Roman AnthonyBOS9091
3Agustin RamirezNYY8989
4Luke KeaschallMIN8589
5Moises BallesterosCHC8887
6Kristian CampbellBOS8085
7Matthew LugoLAA8084
8Cole YoungSEA8584
9Samuel BasalloBAL9083
10Deyvison De Los SantosARI8381
11Alex FreelandLAD7480
12Ryan CliffordNYM8080
13Edgar QueroCHW7779
14Dalton RushingLAD7179
15Carter JensenKCR7978
16Jhostynxon GarciaBOS7378
17Jimmy CrooksSTL7277
18Matt ShawCHC7677
19Hao-Yu LeeDET7877
20Cooper IngleCLE7076
21Xavier IsaacTBR8076
22Carson WilliamsTBR7776
23Colby ThomasOAK7275
24Jacob WilsonOAK6875
25Alejandro OsunaTEX6975

In our latest fantasy podcast, Geoff and I discussed prospects who have yet to debut but are expected to provide 2025 value. Rays shortstop Carson Williams was an honorable mention for me. He finds himself in the Double-A top 25 after hitting a pair of home runs and nabbing a base last week. A blend of power and speed with excellent shortstop defense, he should provide solid fantasy value. The concern is how the Rays slow play their prospects. It’s quite possible that he doesn’t debut until September 2025 despite likely starting 2025 in Triple-A.

Astros infielder Brice Matthews hasn’t received much fanfare despite hitting 15 homers and stealing 26 bases over 276 plate appearances with a 164 composite wRC+. After knocking two home runs and stealing three bases last week, the Astros shortstop/third baseman is now just outside the top 30 of the Double-A RoboScout hitting list. He projects to be an above-average MLB hitter with 20/20 potential.

Matthews’ 106.5 mph 90th percentile exit velocity and .400 wxOBAcon are both better than plus for Double-A. Given his 64% contact rate, the athletic Matthews is a quintessential Astros prospect where bat speed is a much higher priority than the hit tool. He may not debut in 2024, but he should contribute fantasy value in 2025.

Cubs first baseman Jonathan Long is another hot hitter. He hit four home runs in the last week with a 289 wRC+. The 2023 ninth-rounder has been crushing Double-A Tennessee since being promoted at the end of July, to the tune of a 203 wRC+ over 161 plate appearances. Under the hood, his Statcast is quite good, mapping quite closely to fellow Cubs prospect Matt Shaw, with a plus 105 mph 90th percentile exit velocity and above-average contact and chase.

Although “traditional” projection models probably have him as a better-than-average MLB bat with power in the 15-to-20 home run range, the pop is a bit lower than expected from someone currently playing mostly first base in the upper minors. From a fantasy perspective, that probably lowers him a bit. The underlying metrics, though, suggest that there is more in the tank, and perhaps his past week’s work is evidence that it is starting to actualize. RoboScout will be keeping an eye on him.

Double-A Pitchers (min 15 IP)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1Zebby MatthewsMIN100100
2Noah SchultzCHW9798
3Logan HendersonMIL9896
4K.C. HuntMIL9996
5Kumar RockerTEX9795
6Tink HenceSTL9794
7Quinn MathewsSTL9594
8Moises ChacePHI9394
9Bubba ChandlerPIT9192
10Chase DollanderCOL9191
11Chandler ChamplainKCR9591
12Braxton AshcraftPIT9190
13Thomas HarringtonPIT9189
14Sean SullivanCOL9288
15Brandon SproatNYM8987
16Eiberson CastellanoPHI9087
17Brett KerryLAA9186
18Brandon YoungBAL9085
19Zach PenrodBOS8885
20Ben ShieldsNYY8785
21Austin BergnerDET8985
22Troy MeltonDET8585
23Caden DanaLAA8684
24Andrew MorrisMIN8683
25Carson PalmquistCOL8583

Eiberson Castellano joins George Klassen and Samuel Aldegheri as Phillies pitching breakouts in 2024. Of course, the latter two are now members of the Angels organization set to make their big league debut this weekend. It’s been a solid season for Phillies pitching development, despite Mick Abel’s disappointing performance and Andrew Painter’s injury.

The 23-year-old Castellano primarily throws an 81 mph slurve, two distinct 94 mph fastballs and a changeup with a foot of fade—all with high extension. He has really turned it on over the last five weeks, putting up a 38% strikeout rate with only a six percent walk rate, while going more than five innings on average per appearance to earn a selection to this past week’s Hot Sheet. His RoboScout projection for MLB is in the same Double-A cluster as Pirates Thomas Harrington and Braxton Ashcraft. He’s clearly a vastly underrated pitching prospect.

Another Phillies righty, Moises Chace, was on RoboScout’s radar as stuff-over-command prospect, although Chace has done most of his pitching this season for the Orioles. Philadelphia acquired him in the Gregory Soto trade and assigned him to Double-A Reading. Chace has been a revelation over 15 innings and is now in the top 10 for the level.

Over three starts, the righthander has a 52% strikeout rate, a 43% strikeout-minus-walk rate, a sub-1.00 WHIP, and all of his ERA indicators are below 2.00. The arsenal is an ultra-flat 94 mph four-seam fastball, an 80 mph slider with over a foot of sweep, and a changeup with over a foot of fade and 11 mph velocity separation from the fastball. Chace has the pitch mix to be a midrotation starter. From a Stuff+ perspective, he grades higher than even Luis Perales (Red Sox) and Noah Schultz (White Sox). His command will dictate whether it comes to fruition.

Triple-A Hitters (min 25 PA)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1James WoodWSN100100
2Jackson HollidayBAL9392
3Coby MayoBAL8690
4Kyle ManzardoCLE8689
5Adrian Del CastilloARI7986
6Andy PagesLAD7886
7Miguel VargasLAD7886
8Chase MeidrothBOS7683
9Roman AnthonyBOS8083
10Jose FerminSTL7180
11Dillon DinglerDET6978
12Jacob WilsonOAK6977
13Kristian CampbellBOS6777
14Shay WhitcombHOU7577
15Jasson DominguezNYY6875
16Luis MatosSFG6975
17Moises BallesterosCHC7475
18Andres ChaparroARI6874
19Nacho Alvarez Jr.ATL6774
20Matthew LugoLAA6674
21Deyvison De Los SantosMIA7974
22Agustin RamirezMIA7074
23Joey LoperfidoHOU6574
24Junior CamineroTBR7074
25Elehuris MonteroCOL6373

With Will Wagner, Joey Loperfido and Addison Barger playing with regularity, it’s clear that the Blue Jays are seeing what they have in their young core. Despite not being on their 40-man roster, Alan Roden is another youngster deserving of a look. The 24-year-old third-round pick in 2022 has been playing corner outfield for Triple-A Buffalo. With 13 home runs, 12 stolen bases and a 126 wRC+ across Double-A and Triple-A, Roden has used his plus contact rate to great effect, especially recently. Roden has hit four home runs, stolen three bases and put up a 168 wRC+ over the last five weeks. With better-than-average defensive metrics, Roden is another solid-not-great, hitting prospect in the Jays organization.

Triple-A Pitchers (min 15 IP)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1Paul SkenesPIT100100
2Christian ScottNYM9190
3Zebby MatthewsMIN8887
4Tylor MegillNYM8885
5Bubba ChandlerPIT8484
6David FestaMIN8884
7Yilber DiazARI8581
8Jack LeiterTEX8281
9Reid DetmersLAA8780
10Logan HendersonMIL8379
11Will WarrenNYY7978
12Cade PovichBAL8278
13Thomas HarringtonPIT8178
14Chayce McDermottBAL8077
15Louie VarlandMIN7976
16Brandon YoungBAL8175
17Cristian MenaARI7974
18Carson SpiersCIN7574
19Noah CameronKCR8073
20Alec MarshKCR7773
21Tobias MyersMIL7373
22Alek ManoahTOR7572
23Quinn PriesterBOS7772
24Chad PatrickMIL7472
25Elieser HernandezLAD7372

When selecting our 2025 redraft targets who have yet to debut, Geoff made a sleeper pick of Brandon Birdsell (Cubs). RoboScout understands why based on his performance the last five weeks. Since July 29, the righthander has put up a 1.06 WHIP with a 1.82 ERA with a 29% strikeout rate and 47% groundball rate while averaging nearly six innings per appearance. As a 24-year-old, that projects in MLB to be around a 1.24 WHIP with a 4.00 ERA. He’s a solid innings eater who won’t hurt your ratios.

Red Sox righty Richard Fitts was a popular redraft target prior to the season. He was expected to see some time in Boston’s rotation after the Red Sox acquired him from the Yankees in the Alex Verdugo trade. So far, that hasn’t happened. Fitts had accrued a 1.44 WHIP and 4.90 ERA as of July 27. Since then, however, over five starts, he’s put up a 1.00 WHIP with a 2.89 ERA and a strikeout-minus-walk rate of 26%. Fitts has also elicited a ground ball rate over 50% during that time and gone deeper than five innings in each appearance. It seems like he might be once again knocking on the door of a call-up.

Happy bidding!

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