RoboScout Top MLB Prospects At Every Level On July 28, 2024

0

The Complex League regular season is over and Baseball America’s Josh Norris has you covered for the playoffs. With the rookie-level season ending earlier this year, it will be interesting to see how prep draftees are handled. Will teams aggressively assign them to Low-A, or hold them out until 2025? Will Complex League hitters earn promotions earlier than normal? There are a lot of potential dominoes to fall over the next few weeks.

As always, RoboScout will be watching it all for you.

It’s Trade Deadline weekend so don’t be surprised to see a lot of the names in these lists exchange hands. We’ll no doubt get into all the fallout in subsequent podcasts and articles so we’ll keep this week’s article tight.

Stats and lists through Friday’s games.

As a reminder, the RoboScore is the value (0 to 100) assigned per level by RoboScout based on 2024 statistical performance and projecting fantasy value (without considering defensive ability or position). The RoboCast number is the RoboScore but with Statcast blended in and then transformed to the 0 to 100 scale.

Dominican Summer League Hitters (min 30 PA)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1Rainiel RodriguezSTL100100
2Eduardo BeltreMIN9498
3Jesus MadeMIL9196
4Emil MoralesLAD9396
5Jose AndersonMIL9292
6Edward FlorentinoPIT8491
7Luis PenaMIL8489
8Yolfran CastilloTEX7987
9Elvin GarciaBAL7685
10Juneiker CaceresCLE8884
11Stiven MartinezBAL8183
12Juan OrtunoMIL7883
13Estivel MorilloCLE8482
14Jaset MartinezCIN7181
15Jirvin MorilloCIN7481
16Adriander MejiaBAL6478
17Cesar LugoCHC6778
18Jesus AlexanderSFG6577
19Jordan SanchezBAL6777
20Justin GonzalesBOS7177

 

Paulino Santana (Rangers) won the DSL All-Star Game MVP last week. This should come as no surprise to readers, as Ben Badler long identified him as one of the prized January international signees. RoboScout hasn’t been too enamored with the 17-year-old’s overall results this season, however, because of an uninspiring lack of in-game power so far. With no home runs and a slugging percentage below .350—and a maximum exit velocity just over 102 mph—Santana seems to be focusing on a contact-oriented approach and excellent swing decisions. With plus speed and solid defense, Santana has other ways to positively impact a game while he works on increasing his strength.

After making it into the top 5 last week, catcher Rainiel Rodriguez (Cardinals) finds himself at the top of the table after hitting another two bombs last week, bringing his season total to nine to lead the league.

Complex League Hitters (min 50 PA)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1Franklin AriasBOS100100
2Robert CalazCOL10098
3Yeremi CabreraTEX9797
4Eric BitontiMIL9495
5Pablo GuerreroTEX9491
6Eduardo TaitPHI9889
7Eduardo QuinteroLAD8487
8Yoeilin CespedesBOS8385
9Javier MogollonCHW8582
10Starlyn CabaPHI7882
11Welbyn FranciscaCLE8481
12Engelth UrenaNYY7481
13Edgleen PerezNYY7380
14Yolfran CastilloTEX7680
15Brailer GuerreroTBR7579
16Daiverson GutierrezNYM7879
17Felnin CelestenSEA7579
18Braylin MorelTEX8478
19Dameury PenaMIN7777
20Miguel RodriguezBAL7377
21Aroon EscobarPHI6976
22Jhonny SeverinoPIT7376
23Yasser MercedesMIN7076
24Jeremy RodriguezNYM8575
25Luis MerejoCLE7275

Recently promoted from the DSL, Rangers SS Yolfran Castillo cracks the top 20 now that he qualifies for the list. Ben Badler raved about the Venezuelan’s contact skills earlier this season. The 17-year-old was quickly brought stateside and has produced a wRC+ just below league average, which is impressive considering his age. There’s not much power—he currently sports a .017 ISO at the Complex—but he does have an xwOBAcon that was better than league average and actually only .020 lower than Brewers DSL breakout Luis Pena. He’s probably too green to be moved to full-season ball after the ACL Rangers’ current postseason run ends, but even still, the Rangers have to be happy with what they saw from their $600,000 signing. Castillo should be rostered in leagues with 400 prospects or more.

Mets C Daiverson Gutierrez is another player who is finishing stateside after starting in the DSL. The 18-year-old signed with New York for nearly $2 million in 2023 and now enters the top 20 after putting up a 170 wRC+ with two home runs over 54 plate appearances. Yet another talented Venezuelan catching signing, scouts believe Gutierrez can develop into above-average game power. His 108 mph max exit velocity seems to support that. He’s not there yet, but he’s showing above-average swing decisions and contact for his age and level, striking out at only a 7% clip at the Complex. As you know, there are a lot of great catching prospects in the minor leagues right now. He’s not there now, but Gutierrez is off to a solid start.

Complex League Pitchers (min 12 IP)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1Trevor HarrisonTBR95100
2Yordy HerreraSTL100100
3Christian ZazuetaLAD8993
4Samuel SanchezLAD9493
5Sean LinanLAD9292
6Ovis PortesBOS8692
7Hayden RobinsonMIL9591
8Joseph YabbourNYM8491
9Keyner BenitezMIA10091
10Jefferson JeanOAK8991
11Juan ValeraBOS8789
12Jacob BresnahanCLE9489
13Rafael GonzalezHOU8489
14Adrian HerreraCIN8488
15Johan SimonTOR8188
16Jogly GarciaCLE8488
17Alix HernandezSFG8688
18Sandy OzunaCOL9286
19Luis MorellisCIN8985
20Jesus CarreraHOU8685
21Hyun-Seok JangLAD8385
22Keythel KeyLAA8084
23Zander MuethPIT7884
24Jordarlin MendozaNYY7884
25Nelfy YnfanteSTL9184

The Guardians finally promoted LHP Jacob Bresnahan to Low-A Lynchburg after he registered a 34% strikeout rate, a 1.04 WHIP and 2.54 ERA over 46 innings. The 19-year-old doesn’t have overpowering stuff, nor does it come from a particularly deceptive slot. Bresnahan has a 92 mph four-seam fastball, 83 mph slider and a changeup that gets over 40% whiffs. But the Guardians are one of baseball’s best pitching development organizations and the southpaw has age on his side, just turning 19 a month ago. Look for his velocity to likely end up in the mid 90s.

Angels righty Keythel Key brings his intriguing arsenal to the top 25 for the first time this year. The 20-year-old Venezuelan has a 29% strikeout rate and a 48% groundball rate—both well above-average marks for the level—but the pitch metrics really catch RoboScout’s eye. Key averages 95 mph on his fastball and touches 99 with a high-spin breaking ball that gets about a foot of sweep, plus a developing changeup. His interesting stuff could potentially work in the back of a rotation with further development. He’s an interesting name to watchlist.

Low-A Hitters (min 50 PA)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1Leodalis De VriesSDP100100
2Colt EmersonSEA8291
3Michael ArroyoSEA8391
4Aidan SmithSEA8088
5Kevin McGonigleDET7887
6Lazaro MontesSEA8887
7Blake MitchellKCR7586
8Axiel PlazPIT8286
9Walker JenkinsMIN7184
10Jonny FarmeloSEA7182
11Jaison ChourioCLE7282
12Demetrio CrisantesARI6781
13Josue De PaulaLAD6681
14Jeral PerezLAD6779
15Zyhir HopeLAD6077
16Ralphy VelazquezCLE6877
17Jesus BaezNYM6976
18Alfredo DunoCIN6775
19Max ClarkDET6974
20Logan WagnerLAD5874
21Yophery RodriguezMIL7373
22Arjun NimmalaTOR6773
23Rosman VerdugoSDP6572
24Cooper PrattMIL6372
25Angel GenaoCLE5972

Maintaining his absolutely breakneck pace, Leodalis De Vries (Padres) remains No. 1 after knocking three more home runs and stealing another base last week. Again, we can’t overstate what he’s doing as the youngest hitter in full-season ball. De Vries’ .901 OPS since June 3 would be the highest season mark by a 17-year old in Low-A since 2006 with a minimum of 100 plate appearances. His full-season 119 wRC+ is just behind the 122 wRC+ that org-mate Ethan Salas put up at the same age last year to much fanfare. It’s still a short sample, but RoboScout has seen enough: De Vries is a top-10 fantasy prospect.

Speaking of RoboScout favorites, Franklin Arias (Red Sox) has already hit two home runs with a preposterous 379 wRC+ in his first three games for Low-A Salem including seven RBIs. The 18-year old shortstop is on one of the more torrid streaks observed in the minors this year and is a top 25 fantasy prospect per RoboScout, especially when you consider that his 181 wRC+ in the Complex League is the highest since 2006 among 18-year-olds with at least 200 plate appearances. Just for context, Junior Caminero (Rays) had a 147 wRC+ in 2022 over 154 plate appearances before being promoted to Low-A. Arias checks all the boxes this year: Power, speed and good shortstop defense.

Low-A Pitchers (min 15 IP)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1Matt WilkinsonCLE100100
2Jonah TongNYM9195
3Quinn MathewsSTL8594
4Alejandro RosarioTEX8493
5Jarlin SusanaWSN8092
6Santiago SuarezTBR7990
7Didier FuentesATL8190
8Grant TaylorCHW7789
9George KlassenPHI7888
10Travis SykoraWSN8287
11Eliazar DishmeyMIA7386
12Yujanyer HerreraMIL8385
13Sean LinanLAD8484
14Kohl DrakeTEX8282
15Thomas WhiteMIA7282
16Ovis PortesBOS7081
17Mavis GravesPHI8580
18Welinton HerreraCOL6979
19Gary Gill HillTBR7879
20Jace KaminskaCOL7479
21Isaiah LoweSDP6779
22Noble MeyerMIA6778
23Jackson NezuhHOU6677
24Jose GonzalezTEX7077
25Alimber SantaHOU6677

It took 65 innings of a 1.20 WHIP, a 3.15 ERA and a strikeout-minus-walk rate of 27%, but 20-year old LHP Mavis Graves (Phillies) finally gets some ink spilt in these pages. Although he’s been deserving for some time, Graves was overshadowed in Clearwater by the louder stuff of teammate George Klassen—the newest member of the Los Angeles Angels.

Still, the 2022 sixth-rounder—with a name more like a Southern Gothic singer/songwriter than southpaw—throws a 91 mph four-seamer from a high slot and big extension. Graves also has a slider and changeup that both get over 50% whiffs. The stuff is solid enough, even if it isn’t overwhelming from a modern pitch design standpoint, and his surface stats portend a peak projection in the same cluster as Grant Taylor (White Sox), Kohl Drake (Rangers) and Yujanyer Herrera (Rockies by way of the Brewers). Graves is probably already rostered in your leagues given his solid results. If he isn’t, the big 6-foot-6 lefthander is definitely viable in leagues that roster 300 prospects.

High-A Hitters (min 50 PA)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1Michael ArroyoSEA97100
2Luke KeaschallMIN9398
3Luke AdamsMIL9297
4Sebastian WalcottTEX9995
5Lazaro MontesSEA10095
6Sal StewartCIN8592
7Xavier IsaacTBR9092
8Carter JensenKCR8691
9Josue De PaulaLAD8088
10Alex FreelandLAD7786
11Samuel ZavalaCHW8286
12Brayden TaylorTBR8084
13Mike BoeveMIL7282
14William BergollaPHI8182
15Henry BolteOAK7682
16Cooper IngleCLE7382
17Cutter CoffeyBOS7781
18C.J. KayfusCLE7080
19Jhostynxon GarciaBOS7079
20Charles McAdooPIT7079
21Yohendrick PinangoCHC7279
22Ricardo OlivarMIN6978
23Bryce EldridgeSFG7177
24Jefferson RojasCHC7177
25Kristian CampbellBOS6577

Josue De Paula (Dodgers) qualifies for the High-A list for the first time this season and immediately slots into the top 10 with a 153 wRC+, two home runs and four stolen bases over 71 plate appearances. With better than league average swing decisions, contact and quality of contact—all the more impressive because he will be a teenager until next May—the only knock against the sweet-swinging left hander is the fact that his defense may ultimately relegate him to a DH-only profile. Still, with the potential for a 60-hit, 60-power profile, he should be a no-doubt fantasy contributor.

High-A Pitchers (min 15 IP)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1Noah SchultzCHW89100
2Quinn MathewsSTL9298
3Matt WilkinsonCLE10098
4Luis PeralesBOS8798
5Owen MurphyATL9097
6Chase DollanderCOL8797
7Alejandro RosarioTEX8995
8Zebby MatthewsMIN8292
9George KlassenPHI8088
10Jonah TongNYM8788
11K.C. HuntMIL8988
12Kohl DrakeTEX9087
13Thomas WhiteMIA7885
14Alessandro ErcolaniPIT7485
15Sean SullivanCOL8984
16Winston SantosTEX7583
17Jedixson PaezBOS9283
18Jaden HammDET8483
19Moises ChaceBAL7081
20Brandyn GarciaSEA7081
21Austin PetersonCLE7880
22Edgar PortesBAL6979
23Lazaro EstradaTOR6879
24Ethan PeckoHOU7879
25Nolan McLeanNYM6879

Now that he qualifies for the list, Alejandro Rosario (Rangers) appears as the seventh pitcher in High-A with a 38% strikeout rate over 18.2 innings. The breakout righthander comes at hitters with a flat 97 mph four-seam fastball while his slider and changeup both get over 45% whiffs. RoboScout sees him as a midrotation starter with a potential for more. 

Double-A Hitters (min 50 PA)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1Emmanuel RodriguezMIN100100
2Agustin RamirezNYY8990
3Luke KeaschallMIN8689
4Moises BallesterosCHC8887
5Matthew LugoBOS8084
6Ryan CliffordNYM8484
7Cole YoungSEA8282
8Roman AnthonyBOS7880
9Deyvison De Los SantosARI8280
10Kristian CampbellBOS7379
11Carson WilliamsTBR7979
12Hao-Yu LeeDET7879
13Alex FreelandLAD7278
14Edgar QueroCHW7678
15C.J. KayfusCLE7378
16Henry BolteOAK7576
17Colby ThomasOAK7074
18Jacob WilsonOAK6774
19Samuel BasalloBAL8374
20Charles McAdooPIT6974
21Marcelo MayerBOS7073
22Tyler LocklearSEA6673
23Harry FordSEA7071
24Dalton RushingLAD6271
25Alejandro OsunaTEX6771

Kristian Campbell (Red Sox) continues his ascent and enters the High-A top 10. His 206 wRC+ at Double-A is the highest among hitters with at least 100 plate appearances. Jacob Wilson (Athletics) had a 224 wRC+ but that was only over 93 plate appearances. As a result, Campbell has a fantasy peak projection that is not too dissimilar from Emmanuel Rodriguez (Twins). With excellent swing decisions, contact quality and better-than-average contact, Campbell is an easy top-50 fantasy prospect. With his underlying metrics, he feels like he is on the verge of going on a home run tear at any moment.

Last year, RoboScout was a fan of Javier Vaz (Royals) on account of his gifted bat-to-ball skills Lack of power was the main concern. His ISO still remains below .130 in 2024 and he only has six home runs in 338 plate appearances at Double-A. Interestingly, though, most of his power outburst has come in the last six weeks.

Since June 3, over 123 plate appearances Vaz has hit five of his six home runs to go along eight steals. That 146 wRC+ during this time, where his swinging strike rate has been lower than 4%, suggests a peak more akin to a 20/20 bat than a 12/12 bat. Keep a close eye on this one, as his defense, contact and speed gives him a high floor. If he is even a 15-home run bat, then he is a likely Top 100 fantasy prospect. Note though that neither his 90th percentile exit velocity, maximum exit velocity, xwOBAcon, or barrel rate has taken any meaningful step forward from his 2023 marks. This might just be a hot streak.

Double-A Pitchers (min 15 IP)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1Zebby MatthewsMIN100100
2Noah SchultzCHW98100
3Logan HendersonMIL9792
4Bubba ChandlerPIT8789
5Braxton AshcraftPIT9087
6Thomas HarringtonPIT9086
7Tink HenceSTL9486
8Jackson JobeDET8285
9Ben ShieldsNYY8784
10Peter Van LoonBAL8583
11Jacob MisiorowskiMIL7983
12Ben CaspariusLAD8082
13Chandler ChamplainKCR9582
14Blade TidwellNYM7981
15Quinn MathewsSTL8281
16Caden DanaLAA8479
17Carson PalmquistCOL8379
18Austin PetersonCLE8579
19Troy MeltonDET7879
20Zach PenrodBOS8779
21Kyle McGowinCHC8278
22Andrew MorrisMIN8678
23Yilber DiazARI8378
24Brandon YoungBAL8978
25Brandon SproatNYM8077

Brewers righthander Logan Henderson continues to be the biggest surprise on the Double-A rankings. Henderson is now up to third place, ahead of the Pittsburgh trio of Bubba Chandler, Braxton Ashcraft and Thomas Harrington. Although he has only thrown 34 innings this season, he has generated a 29.1% strikeout-minus-walk rate. That’s good enough for the fourth-highest mark in Double-A among starting pitchers who have thrown a minimum of 20 innings. On June 30, I described his 2024 arsenal—an ultra-flat 93 mph four-seamer, a changeup that had a called or swinging strike rate of 47% and an 84 mph bullet slider—and he has since utilized it to generate 25 strikeouts and a paltry three walks in 18 innings. RoboScout considers him extremely underrated.

Caden Dana (Angels) is a Top 100 Prospect and moved up six spots to himself inside the Double-A top 20. In his two Double-A starts since appearing in the Futures Game, Dana has thrown a complete game and struck out 18 while only walking one over a total of 14 innings. A physical righthander with a predominantly four-pitch mix, Dana pitch regularly in the Angels’ rotation starting in 2025.

Triple-A Hitters (min 50 PA)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1James WoodWSN100100
2Jackson HollidayBAL9594
3Coby MayoBAL8892
4Miguel VargasLAD7986
5Kyle ManzardoCLE7985
6Jose FerminSTL7685
7Andy PagesLAD7482
8Adrian Del CastilloARI7281
9Agustin RamirezNYY7579
10Jacob WilsonOAK7078
11Moises BallesterosCHC7577
12Angel MartinezCLE7576
13Niko KavadasBOS6676
14Dillon DinglerDET6976
15Jonatan ClaseSEA7275
16Matthew LugoBOS6774
17Jordan BeckCOL6575
18Shay WhitcombHOU7274
19Luis MatosSFG6574
20Joey LoperfidoHOU6574
21Chase MeidrothBOS6573
22Jace JungDET7073
23Deyvison De Los SantosARI7872
24Jhonkensy NoelCLE7972
25Orelvis MartinezTOR7172

With five home runs in his last 19 plate appearances, there is no doubt that Dillon Dingler (Tigers) should make this upcoming week’s Hot Sheet. On the season the 25-year-old catcher now has 17 home runs and a wRC+ of 136 and enters top 15 after never previously gracing the list. That projects to be an above-average hitter with 20+ home runs in the major leagues, yet funnily enough he only ranks as the No. 4 catcher in Triple-A with those peak projections. Dingler is still behind Adrian Del Castillo (Diamondbacks), Agustin Ramirez (Marlins by way of Yankees) and Moises Ballesteros (Cubs). What I’m getting at is that the catching position will be solid in fantasy for the next decade.

Another former RoboScout friend, Buddy Kennedy—now of the Phillies—has hit three doubles and two home runs over his last four games and has a 190 wRC+ over his last 165 plate appearances. He has always been a hit-over-power minor leaguer, but the Phillies appear to have unlocked something since acquiring him from the Tigers. Kennedy’s .295 ISO with Triple-A Lehigh Valley is the highest of his minor league career at any level. It’s even higher than his 17-homer season in Double-A in 2021. Alec Bohm and Bryson Stott block Kennedy on the Phillies’ depth chart, but RoboScout is happy to see that the 25-year-old rejuvenated since joining the Phillies organization.

Triple-A Pitchers (min 15 IP)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1Paul SkenesPIT100100
2Christian ScottNYM9192
3David FestaMIN8881
4Will WarrenNYY7981
5Jack LeiterTEX7780
6Tylor MegillNYM8079
7Chayce McDermottBAL7777
8Carson SpiersCIN7577
9Tobias MyersMIL7377
10Yilber DiazARI7976
11Cade PovichBAL8475
12Chad PatrickMIL7575
13Elieser HernandezLAD7375
14Braxton AshcraftPIT7575
15Louie VarlandMIN7573
16Alek ManoahTOR7573
17Quinn PriesterPIT8372
18Slade CecconiARI7772
19Cristian MenaARI7972
20AJ Smith-ShawverATL7071
21Albert SuarezBAL7471
22Matt ManningDET6770
23Reid DetmersLAA8370
24Osvaldo BidoOAK7068
25Josh WinckowskiBOS6868

We mentioned a few weeks ago that Will Warren (Yankees) was doing his best to turn his season around after a forgettable early going. And now the 25-year-old has pushed himself into the top five. Although the 1.40 WHIP and 6.11 ERA doesn’t look particularly compelling, his xFIP is actually 3.93 with a 27% strikeout rate and his high ranking is quite representative of the fact that Triple-A pitching after Paul Skenes (Pirates) and Christian Scott (Mets) isn’t particularly intimidating, contributing to the perception that the jump for Triple-A hitters to the major leagues seems higher than ever.

Still, Warren’s 25% strikeout-minus-walk rate since June 3 is the fourth-highest by a starting pitcher. Considering he has averaged over five innings per start during that time, it’s quite probable the Yankees will call him up this season. Expect him to make a difference in redraft leagues, where he’s one of the last non-injury pitchers to have that potential.

Happy bidding!

Download our app

Read the newest magazine issue right on your phone