RoboScout Top MLB Prospects At Every Level On April 28, 2024

Low-A Pitchers (min 5 IP): 

Rank	Name	Team	Robo	RoboCast
1	Jonah Tong	NYM	94	100
2	Quinn Mathews	STL	85	94
3	George Klassen	PHI	85	94
4	Matt Wilkinson	CLE	100	93
5	Santiago Suarez	TBR	79	88
6	Adam Serwinowski	CIN	76	86
7	Charlee Soto	MIN	83	83
8	Jarlin Susana	WAS	70	82
9	Yujanyer Herrera	MIL	85	82
10	Thomas White	MIA	75	81

The big pitching performance of the week came from the man affectionately known as “Tugboat.” Guardians righty Matt Wilkinson racked up 15 strikeouts in only six innings of work, yielding one walk and no hits. Despite his 20.1 innings of a 48% strikeout-minus-walk-rate at age 21, which is reasonably age-appropriate, he drops to fourth for the level when Statcast metrics are folded in. His fastball is very flat from a lower release slot, but he only averages 90 mph on his four-seam and two-seam fastballs.

The rest of his arsenal is a changeup that is only five mph slower than his fastball(s) with four inches of vertical separation and five inches of horizontal separation, and a solid slider that sits 79 to 81 mph and has nine inches of sweep, which, compared to the armside run of his fastballs, provides a delta of nearly two feet of horizontal movement. Interestingly, Royber Salinas was the last Low-A pitcher to post a strikeout rate greater than 55% in his age-21 season (minimum 10 innings) in 2022. Now with Oakland, Salinas’ build was also viewed skeptically.

Cardinals 23-year-old lefty Quinn Mathews is a new entrant at the No. 2 spot. Mathews’ 16-strikeout complete game performance for Stanford in 2023 was overshadowed by the fact that he threw 156 pitches. Whereas our NCAA data shows him averaging 91.5 mph on his fastball in 2023, he’s now 94 to 95 mph, touching 97 mph, and is proving to be nearly unhittable to Low-A batters. He struck out 13 batters out of 18 outs in his last outing.

Of course, take a 23-year-old college pitcher succeeding against hitters who are, on average, two years younger than him with a grain of salt. But as I mentioned in the George Klassen blurb last week—who is in third place overall in Low-A—the pitch metrics grade well without even looking at whether they elicited chases or whiffs. The Cardinals should soon promote Mathews to High-A. He’ll join Brycen Mautz and Cooper Hjerpe and we can get a better idea of how his enhanced four-pitch mix plays against more age-appropriate competition.

Low-A Hitters (min 30 PA)

Rank	Name	Team	Robo	RoboCast
1	Jeral Perez	LAD	100	100
2	Cristofer Torin	ARI	99	99
3	Jaison Chourio	CLE	100	97
4	Colt Emerson	SEA	88	89
5	Lazaro Montes	SEA	87	86
6	Aidan Smith	SEA	84	85
7	Blake Mitchell	KCR	86	85
8	Ralphy Velasquez	CLE	83	85
9	Zyhir Hope	LAD	80	84
10	Michael Arroyo	SEA	85	83

Through Friday’s games, Dodgers prospect Jeral Perez maintains his No. 1 rank at Low-A, adding another home run this week. A pair of Mariners prospects climb into the top 10 in Modesto: Michael Arroyo (No. 8 prospect) and Lazaro Montes (No. 4) who each hit a home run and raised their wRC+ with a big week.

Earlier in the week, Geoff Pontes wrote about some teenage Statcast standouts and identified Josue Briceño and Jesus Baez as names to keep an eye on. As one would expect, they rank in the top 20. An interesting player ranks right below Baez. Rockies prospect Andy Perez is a 20-year-old with a 150 wRC+ showing some underlying power with his solid hit tool. The Rockies signed the Cuba native in the same 2021 class that featured Dyan Jorge and Jordy Vargas. RoboScout is intrigued.

High-A Pitchers (min 5 IP)

Rank	Name	Team	Robo	RoboCast
1	Noah Schultz	CHW	95	100
2	Owen Murphy	ATL	100	99
3	Chase Dollander	COL	92	95
4	Calvin Ziegler (out with TJS)	NYM	95	95
5	Winston Santos	TEX	88	91
6	Jaden Hamm	DET	92	88
7	Patrick Reilly	PIT	84	87
8	Luis Perales	BOS	80	85
9	Brett Wichrowski	MIL	83	85
10	Zebby Matthews	MIN	81	84

Rangers righty Winston Santos and Rockies righty Chase Dollander further cemented their position within the top five after each struck out 12 batters over five innings. But Braves RHP Owen Murphy surpassed them both and snagged the No. 2 spot after throwing seven shutout innings with double-digit strikeouts. The Braves’ No. 4 prospect hasn’t made velocity leaps on his fastball yet, as it still sits 91 to 92 mph, yet he finds success on account of its exceptionally flat plane. With a 35% strikeout-minus-walk rate, based on the results, RoboScout sees Murphy as a potential mid-rotation starter who might be susceptible to home runs. Note that Murphy’s RoboCast number is lower than his Robo number. This suggests that he grades out lower than his top-level surface stats imply once we fold in Stuff metrics.

Patrick Reilly was the biggest mover in the top 10. The Pirates righty moved from ninth to seventh after a five-inning, eight-strikeout performance this week. The Pirates’ fifth-round selection out of Vanderbilt in 2023 has opened some (robotic) eyes with his 93 to 94 mph four-seam fastball from a unique 6-foot-6-inch release height, an upper-80s slider, and a 2600 rpm curveball that gets 12 inches of horizontal break. The latter shows some unique traits. Of all the minor league (pitches classified as) curveballs that are over 80 mph with over 10 inches of horizontal break and more than 2500 rpm of spin, none were thrown from a higher release height, adding to the intriguing arsenal and a potential draft day steal for the Pirates.

High-A Hitters (min 30 PA)

Rank	Name	Team	Robo	RoboCast
1	Carter Jensen	KCR	100	100
2	Cam Collier	CIN	92	90
3	Jefferson Rojas	CHC	91	89
4	Sal Stewart	CIN	87	88
5	Mike Boeve	MIL	81	85
6	Alex Freeland	LAD	80	84
7	Luke Keaschall	MIN	81	83
8	Ethan Salas	SDP	93	82
9	Hector Rodriguez	CIN	74	78
10	Gavin Conticello	ARI	75	78

In High-A, the number one spot belongs to perennial RoboScout favorite Carter Jensen. The Royals catcher actually has quite a big “lead” over Reds infielder Cam Collier. The 20-year-old not only has a 179 wRC+ with two home runs and six stolen bases through Saturday’s games, but he also shows a discerning eye with a sub-20% chase rate, a plus contact rate, a plus barrel rate for the level and a 90th percentile exit velocity just under 104 mph. Picked as a potential catcher breakout in the preseason, Jensen has maintained his impressive start nearly 90 plate appearances into the young season 

Dodgers infielder Alex Freeland moves up a few spots to No. 6. He hit a home run and stole a base last week and has a lofty 209 wRC+ through 74 plate appearances. Last year, the strong-armed Freeland popped early on RoboScout but slowly slid back down in the rankings after his promotion to High-A. This year, he’s started off strong—with a very similar offensive profile (results and Statcast data) to fellow 22-year-old Mike Boeve, who the Brewers promoted to Double-A last week. Both hitters show a patient approach with good swing decisions and above-average thump at good launch angles, with Freeland seeming to have increased his bat speed over last year. With a big arm, Freeland should stay on the left side of the infield, but his potential to be a regular hinges on whether he can meaningfully manifest in-game power. 

Double-A Pitchers (min 5 IP)

Rank	Name	Team	Robo	RoboCast
1	Brett Kerry	LAA	97	100
2	Carson Palmquist	COL	97	100
3	Ian Seymour	TBR	100	96
4	Ben Casparius	LAD	88	94
5	Aaron Brown	HOU	99	93
6	Yilber Diaz	ARI	91	92
7	Brock Selvidge	NYY	94	91
8	Mason Adams	CHW	98	91
9	Adam Mazur	SDP	97	91
10	Tyler Woessner	MIL	99	91

Last week, 25-year-old Dodgers RHP Ben Casparius ranked No. 13 in the Double-A rankings. Although the 41% strikeout rate and popping stuff metrics were intriguing, the 2021 fifth-round draft pick had a 14% walk rate and seems ultimately destined for a bullpen role. This week, though, he threw six innings against Royals Double-A affiliate Northwest Arkansas, showing the ability to go deep into games. His 85 mph slider has over 3000 rpm and 13 inches of horizontal break, which complements his 95-96 mph four-seamer. He can also really spin a curveball and occasionally adds a changeup. He looks like he can be, at minimum, a middle relief weapon for the Dodgers.

Houston righty Aaron Brown jumps from No. 11 to No. 5. The 2021 ninth-round pick has popped in the early season. He won Texas League pitcher of the week for Corpus Christi and has a fastball, changeup and cutter mix. Despite the four-seam only sitting 91 mph, on the season he has a 32% strikeout minus walk rate, a 16.3% swinging strike rate and a ground ball rate over 50%. The Astros have a penchant for eliciting high-percentile outcomes from their perennially underrated pitching prospects. Brown could be next and is beginning to look like an interesting potential back-of-the-rotation arm.

 Double-A Hitters (min 30 PA)

Rank	Name	Team	Robo	RoboCast
1	Emmanuel Rodriguez	MIN	100	100
2	Agustin Ramirez	NYY	94	97
3	Mike Boeve	MIL	85	91
4	Moises Ballesteros	CHC	84	89
5	Jett Williams	NYM	76	81
6	Carson Williams	TBR	74	80
7	Zac Veen	COL	74	80
8	Edgar Quero	CHW	71	77
9	James Triantos	CHC	73	76
10	Roman Anthony	BOS	67	75

Twins center fielder Emmanuel Rodriguez continues to hold onto the top spot, but Yankees catcher Agustin Ramirez is right behind him. Ramirez hit two home runs and stole two bases last week, continuing his breakout campaign from behind the dish.

Cubs infielder James Triantos also hit two homers and stole two bases this week. He produced a .421/.400/.947 triple slash on the week and jumps from the No. 20 hitter to No. 9. The 21-year old’s hit-over-power profile still has more ground balls in it than we’d like, but he looks like he can be a high-average, 15 HR/15 SB type in the majors.

Old friend Zac Veen makes the other big jump this week. Although the luster has recently come off the shine for the former top Rockies prospect, Veen hit a home run and nabbed three bags last week, moving from No. 13 to No. 7. Although it’s early, and based on fewer than 30 balls in play, Veen has increased his 90th percentile exit velocity from 104 mph in 2023—up from 102 mph in 2022—to 108 mph so far this year and has already exceeded his 2023 max exit velocity from with a ball tracked at 110 mph. He’s always been a threat on the basepaths. If he has remade himself to be a 15-20 home run bat, an 18 HR/25 SB profile with around a .250 batting average, that is extremely useful for fantasy.

I also need to note that in his first 32 plate appearances since his promotion to Double-A Biloxi, Mike Boeve has not slowed down at all. The Brewers prospect has a 235 wRC+ and nearly as many walks as strikeouts. He may not be a significant home run threat, but his ability to get on base seems to be exceedingly strong.

Triple-A Pitchers (min 5 IP)

Rank	Name	Team	Robo	RoboCast
1	Paul Skenes	PIT	100	100
2	Christian Scott	NYM	100	99
3	Jack Leiter	TEX	95	93
4	Cade Povich	BAL	98	87
5	(Matt Manning)	DET	77	79
6	Tobias Myers	MIL	72	75
7	Brett Kerry	LAA	73	74
8	Mason Black	SFG	75	74
9	(Bryan Woo)	SEA	74	74
10	Grant Gambrell	BOS	72	72

A week ago, Angels righty Brett Kerry was the top-ranked pitcher at Double-A. Now he finds himself within the top 10 after throwing just 10 Triple-A innings. Kerry has a 29% strikeout rate and minuscule 2.4% walk rate for Salt Lake. The righthander’s primarily (high IVB) fastball and slider mix, with the occasional curveball, has been effective so far in 2024. Don’t be surprised if he gets a few starts in the Angels rotation this year.

Triple-A Hitters (min 35 PA)

Rank	Name	Team	Robo	RoboCast
1	Jackson Holliday	BAL	100	100
2	Jose Fermin	STL	87	91
3	Coby Mayo	BAL	81	86
4	Heston Kjerstad	BAL	81	84
5	James Wood	WAS	84	84
6	Caleb Durbin	NYY	79	82
7	Chase Meidroth	BOS	75	80
8	Andy Pages	LAD	75	78
9	Jonah Bride	MIA	70	77
10	Miguel Vargas	LAD	70	77

Looking at the top 10 hitters per RoboScout in Triple-A (minimum 35 plate appearances), three of the top four either are currently in the big leagues right now (or, were, in the case of Holliday). Andy Pages and Jonah Bride also have a taste of the majors in 2024, with Pages currently playing full-time for the Dodgers. It stands to reason that all of these hitters will find themselves in the major leagues in 2024 and could potentially provide redraft league value.

Blue Jays prospects Spencer Horwitz and Orelvis Martinez and Guardians first baseman Kyle Manzardo are the next three names who just missed the top 10. Don’t be surprised to see any or all of them in a big-league lineup in the next month or so.

Bid accordingly.