RoboScout Top 100 Dynasty Targets (Aug. 18, 2024)

Every week, we put out a Top 25, per level, of the hitters and pitchers as determined by RoboScout. This list is derived by ranking the players within the level based on their minor league seasonal performance and applying park factors, regression, aging curves, and projecting expected fantasy value, considering their long term and peak performance. Underlying StatCast data is also folded into the results to nudge the ranking based on the surface stats, upward or downward based on the Statcast data that are most correlated with future fantasy performance.

Defense is not considered, nor is the “depth chart” of the major league club, nor previous year’s performance

Our weekly articles attempt to highlight some of the interesting prospect names – based on seasonal performance or based on recent movement in the rankings – and do a deep dive into some of the things that RoboScout doesn’t look at or that are beyond the “number” that RoboScout outputs to help frame the performance into a dynasty league context.

What the weekly articles haven’t done is aggregate all of the numbers into one “master” list. For example, if Emil Morales (Dodgers) is the top DSL hitter per RoboScout, is he a better target than Alex Freeland (Dodgers) who is the 43rd name on the Triple-A list?

Not doing this was by design for various reasons. For one, if one were to project fantasy value in the major leagues for the next three years, probably zero of the DSL hitters would even get a single plate appearance in the major leagues. But of course, they have value as prospects in a dynasty league. Also, deciding on how one wants to allocate your minor league roster slots amongst hitters and pitchers is also an important consideration in dynasty leagues, and something that might not be best served by having a master list of “the Top 100 Prospects per RoboScout”.

Nothing those caveats, I created exactly that list at the beginning of July and have now updated it. I’ve taken the estimated likelihood of making it to the major leagues, projected performance at peak, and fantasy value projected to be earned at peak – and ranked the hitters and pitchers accordingly – while also not considering defense or the depth chart of the parent club.

Of course, this list will be controversial and is not meant to be the end of the conversation or be the primary input for one’s waiver wire claims; for example, you probably shouldn’t trade Jesus Made (Brewers) – who is not on the list – for Brewers pitcher Chad Patrick (who would be #101 on this list if we extended it further. Also, you will see that Luis Perales (Red Sox) and Owen Murphy (Braves) appear on this list because RoboScout does not know that they are currently recovering from Tommy John surgery and is only looking at their 2024 performance on the season and projecting out. In other words, please apply the appropriate mental adjustments to the output – knowing that these are just the “agnostic” results of RoboScout.

Note, I also removed any prospects who have debuted in the major leagues. Therefore, James Wood (Nationals), Paul Skenes (Pirates), and Jackson Holliday (Orioles) have been removed – even though they would be the top three names, respectively. It also has removed players like Shay Whitcomb (Astros) and Dillon Dingler (Tigers)