RoboScout FAAB Targets For April 23, 2023

Names Catching RoboScout’s Attention (games through April 21, 2023):

Low-A:

The top name in Low-A is Jackson Holliday (Orioles No. 3 prospect). None of this should come as a surprise: the first overall draft pick in 2022 has two home runs and three stolen bases (zero caught stealing) in 60 plate appearances with a 228 wRC+. He’s a top-ranked prospect for a reason, and his results so far validate the eye test.

A pair of Delmarva Shorebirds catchers, Samuel Basallo (Orioles No. 15 prospect) and Creed Willems (unranked), find themselves in the top four among Low-A players. The main reason for their high ranking is that the two teammates have combined for seven home runs over 106 plate appearances (one home run every 15 PAs). For context, the average for the power-sapped level is one home run hit every 70 plate appearances. The underlying skills support the power as both backstops have plus 90th percentile exit velocities at over 105 mph. Basallo right now is probably the more desired target in fantasy—but please be aware that he still has some significant areas of his game to work on: his chase rate is far too high (leading to his sub-4% walk rate) and his in-zone contact rate is far too low. In fact, last year in the majors, only five players with more than 60 plate appearances had a lower in-zone contact rate than what Basallo currently is putting up in Low-A. Obviously, the Dominican teenager has a lot of time to clean it up, but this is something he will need to work on or he will find himself exploited by pitchers at higher levels.

Willems, despite not having the pedigree of Basallo, might arguably be the more interesting option of the two. Surprisingly athletic despite his throwback build, the Orioles were impressed enough with his plus power to use their 2021 eighth-round pick on him despite his TCU commitment and ultimately signed him for $1 million. But potentially even more impressive than the thump in the bat is his plus arm and work ethic on defense; it seems probable that he can stick behind the plate. Almost the perfect antithesis to Basallo, Willems has a plus in-zone contact rate while maintaining a chase rate slightly better than league average. It’s obviously extremely early and regression to the mean is forthcoming, but so far it seems like Willems could be a 20-plus home run bat in the majors.

For those that are curious, the highest-ranked FYPD names per RoboScout (after Jackson Holliday of course), are Cole Young (Mariners No. 2 prospect), Jett Williams (Mets No. 6 prospect),and Emaarion Boyd (Phillies No. 23 prospect) with the latter flashing 30-stolen base potential (though with very little power at this point).

An underrated name is Guardians prospect Guy Lipscomb. The 22-year-old 2022 fifth-rounder out of Belmont is showing interesting skills over his first dozen games, hitting .293/.453/.439 with an equal number of strikeouts and walks. The underlying data is intriguing with an 18% whiff rate, a 17% chase rate and a 104 mph 90th percentile exit velocity. Not bad for a 6-foot-2 guy with 70-grade speed. I’d target Lipscomb in the deepest of dynasty settings, but he’s a name to watch. 

On the pitching side of things, the top pitchers are Lyon Richardson (Reds No. 28 prospect) and Frank Mozzicato (Royals No. 5 prospect), but there’s also a new entry: Steven Zobac (Royals No. 29 prospect) of the Columbia Fireflies. Taken in the fourth round in the 2022 draft, the righthander has made two appearances in relief (five innings) and has struck out 14 of the 16 batters he’s faced. A former two-way player from California, Zobac is working exclusively as a pitcher now, where he can hone his above-average to plus fastball (sits 95 to 98 mph) and above-average mid-80s slider. His changeup has 10 mph of separation from the heater, but lags his other two pitches from a Stuff+ perspective. Thus far in his professional career, he seems to be able to maintain his delivery and, with his athleticism, he can hopefully develop into a starter. He has a long way to go but the 88% strikeout rate certainly gets our attention.

Inland Empire’s Caden Dana was the Angels’ 11th-round pick last July out of the New Jersey prep ranks. He’s been on fire to begin the season with 18 strikeouts to six walks over 15 innings. Standing 6-foot-4 with a sturdy build, Dana looks the part of a starter. His fastball sits 92-94 mph, averaging between 18-19 inches of induced vertical break with heavy bore and high spin rates. He mixes in a slider in the mid 80s with gyro shape, a slower curveball in the high 70s and a changeup with splitter-type action. It’s an interesting profile, making Dana possibly one of the more underrated pitching prospects in deeper dynasty leagues. 

High-A:

Last week the top two pitchers were Trace Bright (Orioles unranked) and Ronan Kopp (Dodgers No. 15 prospect). Passing Bright to enter the top five this week is Braves’ No. 1 prospect AJ Smith-Shawver. Leaning heavily on his plus to double-plus fastball and plus to double-plus slider, the Rome righthander has punched out 17 batters over nine innings, while only walking three. 

The top-ranked pitcher per RoboScout is 21-year-old Venezuelan righthander Luinder Avila (Royals unranked). Despite the outstanding results (47% K%, 6.4% BB%), from a scouting perspective, the stuff is not that loud. Avila pitches backward, primarily using his mid-70s loopy curveball which has confounded High-A hitters so far but which doesn’t grade out very well from a Stuff+ standpoint. His four-seam fastball averages 92 mph (though it has touched 96 mph), but it doesn’t have great shape and has a 90%+ contact rate against it. The results, though, have been undeniable. He’s a watch list name for now until he accrues more than 12.1 innings.

Far and away the best hitter in High-A has been Junior Caminero (Rays No. 8 prospect), who has four home runs in only 48 plate appearances as the second-youngest player in the South Atlantic League. Even more impressive than the superficial stats are the underlying ones: he has a plus contact rate, plus in-zone contact rate and the second-highest 90th percentile exit velocity for the level. Again, Caminero is a teenager. If you already roster him, break out the champagne and celebrate (But maybe you should wait two years, when he can join you for a sip).

One note of caution here about the second-highest ranked player per RoboScout, Yiddi Cappe (Marlins No. 4 prospect). Although the Cuban has put up a 167 wRC+ as a 20-year-old, underneath the hood, he hasn’t really improved on his underlying metrics. Last year he had plus contact and in-zone contact rates with a high chase rate. This year, his contact and in-zone contact rates have taken a step back and are now actually league average while his already poor chase rate is even worse. Cappe is still only 20 years old but keep the above in mind before seeking him out as a primary target in your leagues.

Coming in at sixth is Dodgers catcher Yeiner Fernandez (Dodgers No. 24 prospect). Whereas Cappe hasn’t built on his 2022 underlying metrics, Fernandez has, improving his contact rate, in-zone contact rate, chase rate and 90th percentile exit velocity year-over-year. Couple that with the fact that his bat-to-ball skills were already very good, and the question now is whether the Venezuelan will be able to stick behind the plate. Thus far in seven games as catcher for the Loons, he’s had only one passed ball and has thrown out 29% of baserunners attempting to steal; a huge improvement from the 15 passed balls he allowed last year in 62 games while only sending 17% of would-be basestealers back to the dugout. It is still early but it seems like he is learning how to utilize his above-average arm.

Double-A:

We talked about Andrew Abbott (Reds, Double-A) last week as the primary target—and we mentioned on the BA Fantasy Podcast that Abbott is knocking on the door of the Fantasy Top 100, if not already on it. The lefthander finds himself at the top of the Double-A ranks and, based on his current season’s body of work, should see Louisville before May.

We also mentioned Mike Vasil (Mets, Double-A) in the same podcast. The 23-year-old righthander has only thrown 11 innings thus far but the arrows are way up based on the results. He sat 92-94 mph, touching 95 mph on Saturday, mixing in a mid-80s slider and a changeup. He allowed a couple of hard-hit balls to Hunter Goodman and Colin Simpson, but overall stayed away from hard contact and pounded the zone. It was an encouraging outing from the former Virginia standout. 

I do want to talk about Cristian Mena (White Sox, Double-A). The 20-year-old first caught RoboScout’s eye last year when he was putting up 11 strikeouts per nine innings for Kannapolis as a 19-year-old before ending the year in Double-A as part of Project Birmingham, speaking to how highly the White Sox viewed him. The righthander has four pitches that are average or better and, despite the somewhat gaudy superficial stats (1.43 WHIP, 6.43 ERA prior to Saturday’s start), under the hood, it’s pretty impressive—especially considering he is the second-youngest pitcher in the Southern League (only Eury Perez is younger). It’s only been two starts but the young Dominican has an FIP and xFIP below 3.00 and a 48% strikeout rate (backed up by an 18% swinging strike rate). Matt Eddy had him as an honorable mention among pitchers in his breakouts article and was definitely on to something.

On the podcast, we mentioned that Evan Carter (Rangers No. 1 prospect) sat at the top of the Double-A hitter ranks with Edgar Quero (Angels No. 4 prospect) a distant second. Unsurprisingly, the current starting shortstop for the Angels, Zach Neto, is third.

The most interesting name to me, though, is Luis Matos (Giants No. 5 prospect). The 21-year-old Venezuelan has always had incredible hand-eye coordination; it was just the pitch recognition that was the issue. Despite the chase rate in 2022 of 35%, he was still able to put the bat on the ball at a better than league average 74% rate. If you’re making contact on pitches out of the zone, the contact quality will be impaired … and, as pitchers continued to induce him to swing at pitches out of the zone (and put the ball in play), he had a 90th percentile exit velocity lower than 100 mph (and an average exit velocity of 84 mph), both disappointing marks with his electric bat speed. So far in 2023, though, Matos has drastically improved his chase rate and has brought his strikeout rate under 8%. As a result of his more discriminate swing decisions, his average exit velocity and 90th percentile exit velocity have jumped more than 5 mph. This is the type of improvement the Giants were looking for. If he can concretize these gains for the whole season, he will be in the conversation as a starting outfielder in 2024.

Triple-A:

On the podcast, we mentioned that as much as people were clamoring for Gavin Williams (Guardians No. 1 prospect) or Tanner Bibee (Guardians No. 7 prospect), we felt it was more likely that the Guardians would call up Logan Allen (Guardians No. 6 prospect) and sure enough it was announced that (weather permitting), Allen would make his major league debut on Sunday. This all made sense because, per RoboScout,he was the fourth-highest ranked Triple-A pitcher behind Mason Miller (A’s No. 4 prospect), who already made his debut this past week, 35-year-old Toronto journeyman Casey Lawrence (with a scintillating K%-BB% of 35.1%-13%) and Matthew Liberatore (Cardinals No. 4 prospect), who has also already debuted in the show. Bibee, for those who are interested, is ranked down in the 25th to 35th zone (with such names as Luis Ortiz (Pirates No. 4 prospect), Forrest Whitley (Astros No. 28 prospect), Brent Headrick (Twins No. 19 prospect), who also had his major league debut this past week, and Chase Silseth (Angels No. 3 prospect).

In terms of what to expect, all four pitches in Allen’s arsenal graded out average or better last year and the same goes for this year—with the fastball in particular seemingly taking a step forward. From a results perspective, the four-seamer has induced far more chases and weaker contact than in previous years. I’m not sure how long he’ll stay in the major league rotation, but he has a very good chance of becoming a mid-rotation starter on a Cleveland team with a wealth of quality arms.