Revisiting 2024 Breakout MLB Prospects Predictions For Every Team

Stats referenced below were pulled on Sept. 9th and each player is listed with their preseason and current top 30 ranks. 

At the macro level, 18 breakout picks moved up five or more spots on their respective Top 30s. Thirty-four players remained within four spots in either direction and 28 players moved down five or more spots. 

Of the breakout selections, these were the biggest “hits:”

• Nolan McLean, RHP, Mets
• Franklin Arias, SS, Red Sox
• Cooper Pratt, SS, Brewers
• Josue Briceno, C, Tigers
• Ramon Ramirez, C, Royals
• Luke Keaschall, 2B, Twins
• Joendry Vargas, SS, Dodgers
• Jake Bloss, RHP, Blue Jays
• Henry Bolte, OF, Athletics
• Colby Thomas, OF Athletics
• Aidan Smith, RHP Rays
• Jeter Martinez, RHP Mariners
• Emiliano Teodo, RHP, Rangers

You can see updated Top 30s for each team here.

Braves

Jhancarlos Lara, RHP

• Preseason Rank: 13
• Current Rank: 10

3.92 ERA, 82.2 IP, 19 GS, 94 K, 60 BB, 25.3 K%, 16.2 BB%, 58 Strike%, 53.2 GB%, 4.16 FIP

Luis Guanipa, OF

• Preseason Rank: 17
• Current Rank: 16

.219/.286/.291, 2 HR, 4 2B, 10 SB, 8.3 BB%, 20.7 K%, 68 wRC+

Garrett Baumann, RHP

• Preseason Rank: 18
• Current Rank: 21

3.18 ERA, 99 IP, 19 GS, 89 K, 23 BB, 21.9 K%, 5.7 BB%, 69 Strike%, 48.9 GB%, 3.05 FIP

None of the three Braves breakouts are in massively different spots on the Top 30 today than they were at the beginning of the season. Jhancarlos Lara has missed plenty of bats between High-A and Double-A, but his control has been an issue, though a newly added cutter has been a great addition to the repertoire to add to his mid-90s fastball and hard swing-and-miss slider. Luis Guanipa has yet to capitalize on his gaudy toolset, and looked a bit overmatched after a promotion to High-A Augusta where he struck out 25.7% of the time. Garrett Baumann was one inning shy of a 100-inning season as a full-time starter mostly with Low-A Augusta. His 93-94 mph fastball touched 98 and did a nice job setting up his four-pitch mix. Baumann threw the heater for strikes at a 71% clip—though he might need to unlock a better swing-and-miss offering for the upper levels.

Marlins

Andres Valor, OF

• Preseason Rank: 12
• Current Rank: 25

.289/.374/.421, 2 HR, 10 2B, 35 SB, 8.8 BB%, 25.1 K%, 119 wRC+

Anthony Maldonado, RHP

• Preseason Rank: 21
• Current Rank: NR

5.10 ERA, 42.1 IP, 0 GS, 50 K, 20 BB, 26.7 K%, 10.7 BB%, 61 Strike%, 31.3 GB%, 5.23 FIP

Mark Coley, OF

• Preseason Rank: 26
• Current Rank: NR

.226/.338/.405, 12 HR, 16 2B, 33 SB, 10.2 BB%, 30.3 K%, 116 wRC+

The Marlins had a huge infusion of talent at the trade deadline, so the rank changes might be a bit more muddy here than with other orgs. Andres Valor now sits in the back third of the top 30 but had a fine season in the Florida Complex League and finished second behind only Starlyn Caba with 35 steals. He also showed solid swing decisions and contact skills which should bode well as he adds strength. Anthony Maldonado pitched well in the majors in late April and May before a few rough outings later in the summer, but he is the 10th major leaguer for the Marlins from the 2019 draft—more than any other team. Mark Coley was an above-average hitter for the High-A Midwest League this year, but that came in an age-23 season that’s quite a bit older than most of the league. He does plenty of damage on contact and also added 30 steals, but has far too much swing and miss in his game (34.7% miss rate).

Mets

Nolan McLean, RHP

• Preseason Rank: 14
• Current Rank: 7

3.99 ERA, 103.2 IP, 24 GS, 110 K, 40 BB, 24.9 K%, 9.1 BB%, 64 Strike%, 49.3 GB%, 4.13 FIP

Jesus Baez, SS

• Preseason Rank: 16
• Current Rank: 10

.262/.335/.447, 11 HR, 17 2B, 9 SB, 8.5 BB%, 16.1 K%, 122 wRC+

Jeremy Rodriguez, SS

• Preseason Rank: 17
• Current Rank: 16

.282/.355/.400, 3 HR, 10 2B, 17 SB, 9.7 BB%, 17.1 K%, 108 wRC+

Each of our Mets breakout picks sits higher on the Top 30 today than they did during the preseason. Rodriguez made a marginal jump, but both McLean and Baez feel like legitimate steps forward. Nolan McLean stopped hitting in late June and focused on pitching only from that point forward and showed much better control as a full-time starter between High-A and Double-A than he did in college with Oklahoma State. Stuff+ loves his high-spin slider, which is no surprise, but he could still improve his fastball command and sequencing at the next level. Jesus Baez made the jump from rookie ball to Low-A St. Lucie this season and played well enough to earn a late-season promotion to High-A Brooklyn in late June. A torn meniscus ended his season. While he still is a bit aggressive with his swing decisions (31% chase), Baez showed an excellent combination of contact and power while splitting most of his defensive time between shortstop and third base. Jeremy Rodriguez made his stateside debut this year in the Florida Complex League and held his own as a 17-year-old with well above-average contact skills (15.5% miss) and a savvy eye (20.5% chase) while playing shortstop, second base and third. 

Phillies

Devin Saltiban, 2B/SS

• Preseason Rank: 12
• Current Rank: 13

.237/.346/.428, 17 HR, 13 2B, 22 SB, 12.2 BB%, 24.8 K%, 123 wRC+

Tjayy Walton, OF 

• Preseason Rank: 13
• Current Rank: 17

.195/.321/.316, 3 HR, 7 2B, 7 SB, 11.9 BB%, 32.1 K%, 91 wRC+

Kehden Hettiger, C

• Preseason Rank: 21
• Current Rank: NR

.195/.361/.31, 5 HR, 9 2B, 4 SB, 19.8 BB%, 23.6 K%, 105 wRC+

None of our three Phillies selections became true breakouts this year. Devin Saltiban played the entire season with Low-A Clearwater where he manned second base, homered 17 times and added 22 stolen bases. He has better under-the-hood batted ball data than his slash line might suggest. His power and speed combination remains strong, though he’s still finding his footing as an infielder and could ultimately move back to the outfield. Tjayy Walton was limited by an oblique injury this season and showed flashes of power when healthy with tremendous top-end exit velocities (113.4 max EV) but needs to make more contact (36.2% miss). Kehden Hettiger hit under .200 with Low-A Clearwater and employed a fairly passive approach (37.6% swing rate) that led to a near 20% walk rate while throwing out just 14% of base stealers from behind the dish. 

Nationals

Daylen Lile, OF 

• Preseason Rank: 11
• Current Rank: 18

.265/.354/.391, 5 HR, 23 2B, 23 SB, 10.1 BB%, 16.8 K%, 116 wRC+

DJ Herz, LHP 

• Preseason Rank: 14
• Current Rank: NR (Graduated)

3.89 ERA, 39.1 IP, 10 GS, 44 K, 32 BB, 26.2 K%, 19.0 BB%, 58 Strike%, 33.0 GB%, 4.77 FIP

Both of our Nationals breakout picks slid down the rankings (before graduating in the case of Herz) but found themselves either in the middle of the team’s Top 30 or graduated. Daylen Lile played 57 games with High-A Wilmington and earned a midseason promotion to Double-A Harrisburg and held his own at both levels. He has a knack for the barrel, makes tons of contact within the zone and hits line drives at a high clip, though he remains a contact-over-power hitter, which could be an issue if he’s in a corner outfield spot. DJ Herz made nine starts with Triple-A Rochester where he threw strikes at a 59% clip to start the season, then was called up to the majors in June where he seemed to start throwing more strikes overnight. He posted a 3.82 ERA in 16 starts and 75.1 innings for the Nationals with a 93-94 mph fastball that played up from its velocity thanks to above-average extension and a reliable changeup. Herz has been one of the team’s most consistent starters since his big-league debut. 

Orioles

Dylan Beavers, OF 

• Preseason Rank: 13
• Current Rank: 9

.238/.342/.414, 15 HR, 17 2B, 30 SB, 13.3 BB%, 22.4 K%, 117 wRC+

Jackson Baumeister, RHP 

• Preseason Rank: 14
• Current Rank: 23 (Rays)

2.53 ERA, 99.2 IP, 23 GS, 135 K, 48 BB, 32.7 K%, 11.6 BB%, 62 Strike%, 38.6 GB%, 3.06 FIP

Luis Almeyda, SS

• Preseason Rank: 21
• Current Rank: NR

.200/.337/.316, 5 HR, 1 2B, 12 SB, 16.3 BB%, 25.8 K%, 87 wRC+

It’s a mixed bag for the Orioles. Dylan Beavers climbed a few spots, Jackson Baumeister was traded to the Rays in the Zach Eflin deal and Luis Almeyda fell out of the Top 30 entirely. After getting a taste of Double-A in 2023, Dylan Beavers spent the entire 2024 season at the level where he showed an exciting power/speed combo and continued to display a keen batting eye, with a solid chase rate that helped lead to a 13.3% walk rate. Jackson Baumeister pitched in High-A for the entirety of the season with both organizations and improved his walk rate significantly after he was traded to the Rays (5.5 BB/9 to 1.6 BB/9). His fastball remains a swing-and-miss pitch in the 91-95 mph range with great shape and extension, while his slider and changeup looked promising despite less usage than his mid-70s curveball. Luis Almeyda would be a prospect in the 2025 draft class if he hadn’t moved to the Dominican Republic to sign as an international free agent in 2023. He split time at shortstop and third base and showed a solid batting eye (20% chase rate) but also struck out at a 26% clip and hasn’t yet shown much extra-base impact. 

Red Sox

Allan Castro, OF 

• Preseason Rank: 17
• Current Rank: 23

.228/.343/.405, 15 HR, 22 2B, 16 SB, 14.0 BB%, 23.5 K%, 115 wRC+

Yordanny Monegro, RHP

• Preseason Rank: 18
• Current Rank: 27

2.84 ERA, 76 IP, 17 GS, 94 K, 29 BB, 30.7 K%, 9.5 BB%, 61 Strike%, 42.8 GB%, 3.58 FIP

Franklin Arias, SS 

• Preseason Rank: 23
• Current Rank: 6

.309/.409/.487, 9 HR, 25 2B, 35 SB, 13.4 BB%, 17.5 K%, 150 wRC+

Allan Castro and Yordanny Monegro slid from the teens into the 20s on our Boston Top 30, but Arias rocketed up the list and currently ranks No. 94 on our Top 100 as a legitimate breakout prospect. Developing more power was a key development goal for Allan Castro this season and he did jump from seven home runs in 2023 to 15 in 2024, but 14 of those came in High-A as he repeated the level for 95 games. He earned an August promotion to Double-A where he hit .163/.255/.213 with just two extra-base hits in 22 games. Yordanny Monegro mostly pitched with High-A Greenville where he posted a 2.73 ERA over 14 starts and 66 innings. He has a deep mix of solid offerings but might need to attack the zone more consistently against upper-level hitters who are less likely to chase bad pitches out of the zone. Franklin Arias is a standout athlete with a smooth, adjustable swing that helped him win the FCL MVP after slashing .355/.471/.584 with six home runs, 16 doubles and nearly as many walks (34) as strikeouts (36). He then held his own as an 18-year-old in High-A for 36 games to round out the season. Arias pairs a premium defensive profile with strong contact skills and swing decisions, though he could improve his selective aggression more often to do a bit more damage in optimal hitter’s counts.

Yankees

Carlos Lagrange, RHP

• Preseason Rank: 13
• Current Rank: 14

6.86 ERA, 21 IP, 8 GS, 27 K, 20 BB, 27.0 K%, 20.0 BB%, 56 Strike%, 44.7 GB%, 5.12 FIP

Jerson Alejandro, RHP

• Preseason Rank: 25
• Current Rank: NR

5.02 ERA, 37.2 IP, 11 GS, 57 K, 34 BB, 31.7 K%, 18.9 BB%, 56 Strike%, 49.2 GB%, 4.93 FIP

We had a pair of pitching prospects for our Yankees breakouts and neither hit thanks to control issues. Carlos Lagrange sits in about the same spot today as he did preseason, and threw just 21 innings between rookie ball and Low-A with time on the injured list. He still pitched in the mid-to-upper 90s when healthy but the strikes are a real concern that could ultimately push him to the pen. Jerson Alejandro repeated the Dominican Summer League and posted a 5.02 ERA over 11 starts but massively struggled to control his entire pitch mix. 

Rays 

Jose Urbina, RHP 

• Preseason Rank: 14
• Current Rank: NR

4.71 ERA, 65 IP, 12 GS, 57 K, 29 BB, 20.9 K%, 10.6 BB%, 63 Strike%, 35.4 GB%, 5.13 FIP

Erick Lara, 3B

• Preseason Rank: 30
• Current Rank: NR

.167/.290/.222, 0 HR, 4 2B, 5 SB, 15.2 BB%, 22.7 K%, 52 wRC+

We went 0-for-2 on our Rays breakout picks, though the organization did add plenty of new talent at the trade deadline. Jose Urbina threw 48 innings and made eight starts in the Florida Complex League before earning an August promotion to Low-A Charleston where he made four starts. He still sits with a 95-mph fastball that touched 100 this summer and got plenty of whiffs with his low-80s curveball. Erick Lara just barely made the Top 30 on our preseason list and now finds himself on the outside looking in after a tough 2024 season in the FCL where he struck out too often and didn’t impact the ball well enough when he made contact.

Blue Jays

Enmanuel Bonilla, OF 

• Preseason Rank: 11
• Current Rank: 19

.186/.257/.299, 4 HR, 6 2B, 3 SB, 06.1 BB%, 35.5 K%, 54 wRC+

Landen Maroudis, RHP

• Preseason Rank 17
• Current Rank: 13

0.84 ERA, 10.2 IP, 2 GS, 12 K, 4 BB, 31.6 K%, 10.5 BB%, 65 Strike%, 66.7 GB%, 2.43 FIP

Sam Shaw, 2B

• Preseason Rank: 28
• Current Rank: NR

.220/.361/.304, 2 HR, 6 2B, 10 SB, 16.7 BB%, 10 K%, 94 wRC+

There are no true breakouts for the Blue Jays, as the most promising prospect of the three above had his season ended because of an elbow injury. Enmanuel Bonilla had a reputation as an advanced pure hitter in the 2023 international class and hit well in the DSL in 2023, but he struggled in a 53-game stint in the Florida Complex League in 2024. His approach is far too aggressive at the moment (33% chase rate) and he doesn’t make enough contact (36% miss), but he did flash impressive top-end exit velocities. Landen Maroudis was an early bright spot for the organization this spring and pitched well when he was on the mound with Low-A Dunedin, but he only logged 10.2 innings before elbow surgery ended his season. Sam Shaw stands out for his excellent pure bat-to-ball skills and batting eye, yet he still just managed a .664 OPS as a 19-year-old in the Florida Complex League in his full pro season. His 16.7% walk rate kept him afloat offensively, but he’ll need to do more, especially after sliding into a primary left field defensive role. 

Cubs

Michael Arias, RHP

• Preseason Rank: 18
• Current Rank: 14

4.61 ERA, 56.2 IP, 0 GS, 68 K, 42 BB, 25.7 K%, 15.8 BB%, 57 Strike%, 40.0 GB%, 4.59 FIP

Drew Gray, LHP

• Preseason Rank: 20
• Current Rank: 24

4.39 ERA, 80 IP, 22 GS, 97 K, 73 BB, 27.6 K%, 20.8 BB%, 56 Strike%, 34.5 GB%, 4.35 FIP

There’s a slight up-arrow for one of the Cubs breakout picks and a slight down-arrow for the other based purely off Top 30 ranks. Michael Arias moved into a reliever role during the 2024 season and pitched the entire year at Double-A and Triple-A. He threw in the upper 90s but maintained the control questions that moved him into the bullpen in the first place, as highlighted, in particular, by an 18.4% walk rate at the Triple-A level. The slider has been his most exciting whiff pitch, but to get the most of it, Arias will need to sharpen his feel to land it. Drew Gray continued to show exciting swing-and-miss stuff with his four-pitch mix, led by a riding low-90s fastball, but a 21% walk rate isn’t sustainable for a starter.

Reds

Blake Dunn, OF

• Preseason Rank: 13
• Current Rank: 10

.240/.337/.354, 7 HR, 16 2B, 21 SB, 10.7 BB%, 26.8 K%, 85 wRC+

Hunter Hollan, LHP 

• Preseason Rank: 28
• Current Rank: NR

7.04 ERA, 15.1 IP, 3 GS, 9 K, 11 BB, 12.5 K%, 15.3 BB%, 59 Strike%, 30.6 GB%, 5.15 FIP

Blake Dunn made his major league debut for the Reds this year which makes his 15th-round selection in the 2021 draft a success despite going just 1-for-19 (.053) in his 14-game stint. His approach will need to improve to handle big league pitching, but his blend of speed, power and defensive ability in the outfield still makes him an intriguing depth piece. Hunter Hollan has dealt with a number of injury issues in his career. In 2024, he was limited to just five games and 15.1 innings because of a shoulder injury. 

Brewers

Yophery Rodriguez, OF

• Preseason Rank: 11
• Current Rank: 11

.250/.343/.383, 7 HR, 23 2B, 7 SB, 12.2 BB%, 23.8 K%, 117 wRC+

Luke Adams, 3B 

• Preseason Rank: 13
• Current Rank: 12

.227/.443/.397, 11 HR, 15 2B, 28 SB, 18.7 BB%, 21.3 K%, 154 wRC+

Cooper Pratt, SS 

• Preseason Rank: 14
• Current Rank: 4

.277/.362/.406, 8 HR, 15 2B, 27 SB, 10.3 BB%, 20.0 K%, 126 wRC+

Two of the three Brewers breakout picks are in the same spots on the board today as they were during the preseason, but Cooper Pratt has jumped into the top five prospects of the system. Yophery Rodriguez made his stateside debut in 2024 and was an above-average hitter in the Carolina League as an 18-year-old while playing center field every day. His batting eye and power are intriguing traits, especially once he begins to learn to lift the ball a bit more consistently and gets closer to his physical maturity. Luke Adams employs an extremely passive approach at the plate (30% swing rate) and used that to manage a near 19% walk rate throughout the season with High-A Wisconsin. Pratt had an excellent start to the season and slashed .295/.394/.395 in 73 games with Low-A Carolina with great command of the strike zone and a low swing-and-miss rate. He then traded some of the average and OBP for more power and fly balls in a 23-game stint with High-A Wisconsin where he posted a .700 OPS. 

Pirates

Lonnie White Jr., OF

• Preseason Rank: 17
• Current Rank: 17

.167/.275/.340, 14 HR, 10 2B, 15 SB, 09.6 BB%, 34.4 K%, 80 wRC+

Jun-Seok Shim, RHP

• Preseason Rank: 19
• Current Rank: NR

3.38 ERA, 8 IP, 4 GS, 13 K, 3 BB, 43.3K%, 10.0 BB%, 82 Strike%, 50.0 GB%, 3.45 FIP

Estuar Suero, OF

• Preseason Rank: 23
• Current Rank: NR

.213/.318/.307, 0 HR, 5 2B, 2 SB, 12.5 BB%, 35.2 K%, 78 wRC+

It’s been a bit of a wash for the Pirates breakout prospects, as Lonnie White Jr. is in the exact same spot today as he was in the preseason, while both Jun-Seok Shim and Estuar Suero had their seasons wiped out or limited by injury. White played the entire 2024 season at High-A Greensboro, but his skills continue to lag behind his enticing physical toolset. His 14 homers, 10 doubles and 15 stolen bases are exciting, but his huge swing-and-miss issues (38% miss) led to a 34.4% strikeout rate that was the fourth-highest among qualified hitters in the South Atlantic League. Shim has missed the entire 2024 season because of a shoulder injury, while Suero missed much of the season with a hamate injury. Suero played 20 games in the FCL in July but hit just .167/.311/.233 in that stretch with a 27:12 strikeout-to-walk ratio. 

Cardinals

Travis Honeyman, OF

• Preseason Rank: 16
• Current Rank: 16

.342/.415/.493, 0 HR, 11 2B, 2 SB, 9.8 BB%, 13.4 K%, 156 wRC+

Zach Levenson, OF

• Preseason Rank: 18
• Current Rank: 23

.215/.317/.367, 8 HR, 12 2B, 7 SB, 11.2 BB%, 22.8 K%, 100 wRC+

Zack Showalter, RHP

• Preseason Rank: 22
• Current Rank: 18

2.62 ERA, 34.1 IP, 0 GS, 59 K, 18 BB, 38.6 K%, 11.8 BB%, 0.61 Strike%, 43.9 GB%, 2.48 FIP

The trio of Cardinals breakout picks have largely remained status quo on the Top 30 throughout the season. Travis Honeyman only played 20 games between rookie ball and the Low-A Florida State league because of an injury. He hit well across both levels, but he was also a 22-year-old product of the ACC who will need to be challenged against better competition in 2025. Zach Levenson rarely misses inside the zone (12% miss) but he is a bit aggressive in his swing decisions at times and hit just .215 while playing mostly left field with High-A Peoria. Zack Showalter pitched well as a late-inning reliever with Low-A Palm Beach where he racked up a 38.6% strikeout rate that was good for fourth-best among pitchers in the Florida State League with at least 30 innings, trailing only Quinn Mathews, Kai Peterson and George Klassen. He dominated batters with his deceptive fastball (91.3 mph average, 37% miss rate), but his control and secondaries will need work as he moves up the ladder. 

White Sox

George Wolkow, OF

• Preseason Rank: 12
• Current Rank: 22

.257/.357/.451, 13 HR, 18 2B, 9 SB, 12.0 BB%, 40.3 K%, 130 wRC+

Mathias LaCombe, RHP

• Preseason Rank: 24
• Current Rank: NR

No stats available

It’s been a year to forget for the White Sox. That’s probably true for our breakout pick, as well. George Wolkow dropped 10 spots primarily because of his sustained contact questions. He’s been a productive hitter in the lower levels of the minors because he annihilates the ball when he makes contact (108.8 mph 90th-percentile EV), but his 47% miss rate is entirely unsustainable moving forward. His 40.3% strikeout rate is the ninth-worst among all affiliated minor leaguers with at least 300 plate appearances. Mathias LaCombe fell off the Top 30 entirely and has yet to make his pro debut because of a lat injury that has kept him on the shelf. 

Guardians 

Rafael Ramirez Jr., SS 

• Preseason Rank: 17
• Current Rank: 22 (Nationals)

.183/.299/.306, 4 HR, 13 2B, 7 SB, 14.0 BB%, 34.2 K%, 85 wRC+

Dayan Frias, 3B 

• Preseason Rank: 19
• Current Rank: 27

.202/.305/.304, 5 HR, 15 2B, 6 SB, 11.9 BB%, 24.3 K%, 80 wRC+

Both of our Guardians breakout picks have had tough offensive seasons. Rafael Ramirez Jr. slashed just .187/.301/.319 in 54 games with Low-A Lynchburg before Cleveland traded him along with two other prospects to the Nationals for Lane Thomas. Ramirez has maintained a solid walk rate, but his contact skills (34% miss rate) will need to improve. Dayan Frias had a strong 2023 season but hasn’t been able to replicate that in 2024 with Double-A Akron. He has seen his strikeout rate jump against Double-A pitchers, and his home run/fly ball rate has been cut nearly in half year-over-year.

Tigers

Josue Briceno, C

• Preseason Rank: 18
• Current Rank: 9

.278/.381/.377, 2 HR, 5 2B, 1 SB, 12.5 BB%, 14.8 K%, 123 wRC+

Dylan Smith, RHP

• Preseason Rank: 21
• Current Rank: 23

4.40 ERA, 57.1 IP, 13 GS, 59 K, 31 BB, 23.1 K%, 12.2 BB%, 62 Strike%, 49.1 GB%, 4.59 FIP

Josue Briceno missed time this summer with a right knee sprain, but when he was on the field with Low-A Lakeland for 40 games he made tons of contact (18% miss rate, 13% in-zone miss rate) and walked nearly as often as he struck out. Some scouts also noted progress with his defensive work at catcher. Injuries have been a consistent issue for Dylan Smith throughout his career, and they struck once again for him in 2024. After a solid 57.1 innings with High-A West Michigan where he averaged 93 mph on his fastball, Smith spent the rest of the season on the injured list. The slider was an excellent swing-and-miss pitch for him when on the mound and generated a 21% swinging strike rate.

Royals

Austin Charles, SS

• Preseason Rank: 13
• Current Rank: 13

.257/.353/.386, 10 HR, 15 2B, 36 SB, 10.4 BB%, 25.8 K%, 121 wRC+

David Sandlin, RHP

• Preseason Rank: 19
• Current Rank: 11 (Red Sox)

5.63 ERA, 54.1 IP, 17 GS, 79 K, 17 BB, 33.5 K%, 7.2 BB%, 65 Strike%, 31.4 GB%, 4.93 FIP

Ramon Ramirez, C

• Preseason Rank: 21
• Current Rank: 12

.265/.379/.459, 7 HR, 10 2B, 1 SB, 12.8 BB%, 20.7 K%, 115 wRC+

Austin Charles has continued to split time at shortstop and third base in his second season with Low-A Carolina where he has improved across the board as a hitter compared to his 2023 season. The length of his levers might always create some miss concerns (36% miss rate), however. David Sandlin was traded to the Red Sox before the season started and spent 2024 as a full-time starter between High-A and Double-A where his peripherals were better than his overall ERA at both levels. He averaged 96.2 mph on his fastball and posted a 26.7% swinging strike rate with his mid-80s sweeper. Ramon Ramirez made his stateside debut in the Arizona Complex League where he homered seven times in 49 games and made tons of contact in the zone (13.2% zone miss rate) while continuing to flash impressive top end exit velocities (110.7 mph max EV). 

Twins

Luke Keaschall, 2B

• Preseason Rank: 11
• Current Rank: 4 

.303/.420/.483, 15 HR, 21 2B, 23 SB, 13.4 BB%, 17.2 K%, 159 wRC+

Dameury Pena, 2B

• Preseason Rank: 27
• Current Rank: 20

.282/.386/.410, 3 HR, 4 2B, 4 SB, 13.6 BB%, 6.4 K%, 120 wRC+

Luke Keaschall continues to look like a steal for the Twins after they signed him for $1.5 million in the second round. He was one of just three minor league players with at least 15 home runs, 20 doubles, 20 steals and a strikeout rate less than 20%—along with Kristian Campbell (Red Sox) and Augustin Ramirez (Yankees). He was one of the best minor league hitters this season while playing 10 or more games at second, center field and first base. Dameury Pena didn’t have quite that sort of season, but he still hit extremely well in his stateside debut in the Florida Complex League, jumped seven spots and had the second-lowest strikeout rate among hitters with 100 plate appearances in the FCL.

Diamondbacks

Caden Grice, LHP

• Preseason Rank: 14
• Current Rank: NR

3.75 ERA, 50.1 IP, 11 GS, 68 K, 29 BB, 31.2 K%, 13.3 BB%, 60 Strike%, 48.7 GB%, 4.61 FIP

Yassel Soler, 3B

• Preseason Rank: 18
• Current Rank: 11

.296/.347/.460, 6 HR, 15 2B, 6 SB, 6.9 BB%, 17.3 K%, 101 wRC+

Gian Zapata, OF

• Preseason Rank: 27
• Current Rank: NR

.214/.379/.325, 1 HR, 8 2B, 7 SB, 17.0 BB%, 30.1 K%, 100 wRC+

It’s a 1-for-3 effort with the D-backs, as Yassel Soler made a solid jump to No. 11 for Arizona and both Caden Grice and Gian Zapata fell out of the Top 30 this season. Soler played most of the season at the Arizona Complex League but did get a few games with Low-A Visalia where he showed impressive contact skills while striking out at a serviceable clip. Grice pitched as a full-time starter with Low-A Visalia and missed plenty of bats with a swing-and-miss curveball, but he averaged just 89-90 mph with his fastball and struggled with control. Zapata played in the DSL and ACL this summer and hit well in the former but struggled mightily with contact in the latter.

Rockies

Cole Carrigg, OF

• Preseason Rank: 12
• Current Rank: 12

.283/.359/.491, 17 HR, 16 2B, 53 SB, 9.7 BB%, 18.9 K%, 134 wRC+

Sean Sullivan, LHP

• Preseason Rank: 16
• Current Rank: 16

2.22 ERA, 109.1 IP, 20 GS, 122 K, 14 BB, 28.8 K%, 3.3 BB%, 71 Strike%, 31.6 GB%, 2.83 FIP

Derek Bernard, 2B

• Preseason Rank: 28
• Current Rank: NR

.296/.360/.440, 1 HR, 10 2B, 9 SB, 8.6 BB%, 32.0 K%, 104 wRC+

Cole Carrigg could probably be a bit more disciplined with his swing decisions (30.3% chase rate), but he hit well with High-A Spokane and led all minor leaguers with 14 triples while playing both shortstop and center field. Sean Sullivan will continue to face skepticism because he’s a light-tossing lefthander who scrapes 92 mph at peak, but he dominated High-A and Double-A with great command and much better swing-and-miss results than pitchers who throw multiple grades harder than he does. Big raw power was the calling card for Derek Bernard, but he’ll need to do better than a 34.6% miss rate and 32% strikeout rate in the complex for that to surface more frequently in games.

Dodgers

Payton Martin, RHP

• Preseason Rank: 18
• Current Rank: 19

3.75 ERA, 72 IP, 19 GS, 54 K, 35 BB, 17.1 K%, 11.1 BB%, 61 Strike%, 37.5 GB%, 5.4 FIP

Joendry Vargas, SS

• Preseason Rank: 19
• Current Rank: 8

.303/.406/.493, 4 HR, 9 2B, 11 SB, 12.3 BB%, 22.8 K%, 129 wRC+

Payton Martin out-pitched his peripherals in both classifications of A ball this season, posting a 3.75 ERA despite just a 17.1% strikeout rate and 11.1% walk rate. He averaged 92-93 mph and touched 97 with a riding fastball that generated lots of whiffs, but he’ll need to develop a few other pieces to supplement that. Joendry Vargas had a strong overall debut in the states this summer, though he went through some growing pains and still needs to add refinement on both sides of the ball. Scouts want to see him get the bat head out in front more consistently and his 31.7% miss rate is also a bit high, but he remains a high-upside hitter to dream on and will be only 19 years old in 2025. 

Padres

Homer Bush Jr., OF

• Preseason Rank: 15
• Current Rank: NR (Rays)

.272/.363/.363, 6 HR, 14 2B, 57 SB, 9.3 BB%, 18.8 K%, 115 wRC+

Braden Nett, RHP

• Preseason Rank: 19
• Current Rank: 14

4.03 ERA, 60.1 IP, 18 GS, 70 K, 35 BB, 26.4 K%, 13.2 BB%, 61 Strike%, 47.4 GB%, 3.66 FIP

Jagger Haynes, LHP

• Preseason Rank: 30
• Current Rank: 13

4.64 ERA, 110.2 IP, 22 GS, 114 K, 66 BB, 24.0 K%, 13.9 BB%, 61 Strike%, 39.8 GB%, 4.63 FIP

If you’re a Padres prospect, it’s probably safe to keep your bags packed at all times. Homer Bush Jr. was moved to the Rays along with RHP Dylan Lesko and C JD Gonzalez for Jason Adam at the deadline. He was among the minor league leaders with 57 stolen bases in 114 games at the High-A level, but found himself on the outside looking in after moving to a deeper Rays system. Braden Nett moved up a few spots and averaged 96 mph on his four-seam fastball this season while posting a 4.03 ERA over 18 starts with a solid strikeout rate but a walk rate that could improve. Jagger Haynes lept from No. 30 to No. 13 after a full season as a starter with High-A Fort Wayne. He could improve his command, but he got tons of swing-and-miss with his entire arsenal of secondaries.

Giants 

Joe Whitman, LHP 

• Preseason Rank: 14
• Current Rank: 11

4.63 ERA, 103 IP, 23 GS, 108 K, 37 BB, 24.6 K%, 8.4 BB%, 64 Strike%, 43.0 GB%, 3.8 FIP

Onil Perez, C 

• Preseason Rank: 17
• Current Rank: 18

.236/.334/.303, 1 HR, 15 2B, 20 SB, 11.1 BB%, 16.6 K%, 87 wRC+

Trevor McDonald, RHP

• Preseason Rank: 19
• Current Rank: 21

4.44 ERA, 75 IP, 18 GS, 70 K, 27 BB, 21.1 K%, 8.2 BB%, 62 Strike%, 49.5 GB%, 4.60 FIP

All three of our Giants breakout picks are in roughly the same spots on the board today as they were at the start of the season. Joe Whitman split time at Low-A and High-A this season and pitched well across the board, though he took a big step forward with his control while pitching with High-A Eugene. He landed the slider for strikes at a high clip (70%), averaged 93 mph with his fastball and touched 97. Trevor McDonald pitched at four different levels this season, but most of his innings came with Triple-A Sacramento, where he posted a 4.91 ERA over six starts and eight total games. While his sinking fastball isn’t a huge swing-and-miss pitch, he did generate a near 50% overall groundball rate this season. Onil Perez spent the 2024 season with High-A Eugene where he continued to not show much in the way of impact (just one home run and a 96.7 mph 90th-percentile EV), though he walked at a respectable 11.1% clip and can put the bat on the ball. 

Astros

Jake Bloss, RHP

• Preseason Rank: 11
• Current Rank: 4 (Blue Jays)

2.21 ERA, 81.1 IP, 18 GS, 77 K, 32 BB, 24.1 K%, 10.0 BB%, 63 Strike%, 38.3 GB%, 3.74 FIP

Nehomar Ochoa Jr., OF 

• Preseason Rank: 24
• Current Rank: 25

.222/.317/.359, 10 HR, 15 2B, 17 SB, 9.6 BB%, 29.4 K%, 103 wRC+

Alberto Hernandez, SS

• Preseason Rank: 30
• Current Rank: NR

.197/.288/.251, 2 HR, 7 2B, 4 SB, 10.7 BB%, 22.5 K%, 67 wRC+

The Astros’ best-performing breakout pick was traded to the Blue Jays in a deal for Yusei Kikuchi that also included Joey Loperfido and Will Wagner. Jake Bloss made three starts for the Astros but is now one of Toronto’s top prospects and has averaged 94 mph with a fastball that’s been up to 98 with strong riding life. Nehomar Ochoa Jr. homered 10 times and added 15 doubles with Low-A Fayetteville this season, but he also has miss questions (32% miss rate) that will need to be addressed. Miss questions aren’t the case for Alberto Hernandez, but the 20-year-old infielder had a poor season at the same level as Ochoa Jr. without hitting for average, getting on base or showing much in the way of impact.

Angels

Dario Laverde, C

• Preseason Rank: 12
• Current Rank: 17

.293/.371/.406, 2 HR, 15 2B, 1 SB, 9.8 BB%, 21.2 K%, 108 wRC+

Walbert Urena, RHP

• Preseason Rank: 14
• Current Rank: 21

4.19 ERA, 77.1 IP, 16 GS, 64 K, 54 BB, 18.5 K%, 15.6 BB%, 56 Strike%, 52.3 GB%, 4.78 FIP

Anthony Scull, OF

• Preseason Rank: 25
• Current Rank: 30

.263/.345/.378, 7 HR, 23 2B, 24 SB, 7.2 BB%, 19.9 K%, 97 wRC+

Each of our breakout picks for the Angels have slid down the board slightly, though all three players remain in the team’s Top 10. Dario Laverde split time between rookie ball and Low-A Inland Empire where he showed great in-zone contact skills but not much in the way of power in his age-19 season. Walbert Urena continues to throw extremely hard but didn’t take any meaningful steps forward with his control and still doesn’t have a reliable breaking ball to back his upper-90s velocity. Anthony Scull had a fine season as a 20-year-old with Low-A Inland Empire with 23 doubles and 24 stolen bases, but he has a hyper-aggressive approach and more miss questions than his 20% strikeout rate might indicate.

Athletics

Henry Bolte, OF

• Preseason Rank: 13
• Current Rank: 4

.261/.365/.469, 15 HR, 32 2B, 43 SB, 11.6 BB%, 34.2 K%, 138 wRC+

Jack Perkins, RHP

• Preseason Rank: 15
• Current Rank: 15

3.13 ERA, 72 IP, 15 GS, 93 K, 33 BB, 31.2 K%, 11.1 BB%, 64 Strike%, 44.2 GB%, 2.85 FIP

Colby Thomas, OF

• Preseason Rank: 20
• Current Rank: 5

.275/.339/.567, 28 HR, 42 2B, 14 SB, 6.5 BB%, 24.6 K%, 132 wRC+

The A’s are one of our better teams in terms of breakouts who hit. Both Henry Bolte and Colby Thomas went from middle-of-the-pack-or-worse prospects in the system at the start of the year to top-five players today, and they represent sorely-needed bright spots for A’s fans. Bolte’s strikeout rate is far too high and will continue to be an issue for him as he progresses to more advanced pitching, but he still did a ton of damage on contact, posted huge exit velocity data (108.4 mph 90th-percentile EV) and is a threat on the bases. Thomas was one of the most prolific power hitters in the minors and was fourth in homers and second in doubles through 122 games. He’s more aggressive than Bolte in his out-of-the-zone swing decisions, but his contact rates within the zone are much better. Jack Perkins didn’t leap up the rankings like the outfielders here, but he had an extremely solid pitching season in a hitter-friendly league, posting a 3.21 ERA over 14 starts and 70 innings with a fastball that averaged 95-96 and touched 99 while also generating lots of swing-and-miss with his mid-80s slider. Our internal 122 Stuff+ on the slider is a strong figure. 

Mariners

Aidan Smith, OF

• Preseason Rank: 19
• Current Rank: 11 (Rays)

.288/.401/.473, 11 HR, 33 2B, 41 SB, 14.4 BB%, 23.2 K%, 139 wRC+

Darren Bowen, RHP

• Preseason Rank: 24
• Current Rank: 30 (Twins)

6.07 ERA, 72.2 IP, 17 GS, 71 K, 26 BB, 21.6 K%, 7.9 BB%, 63 Strike%, 35.7 GB%, 4.06 FIP

Jeter Martinez, RHP

• Preseason Rank: 30
• Current Rank: 14

3.86 ERA, 39.2 IP, 11 GS, 49 K, 31 BB, 26.6 K%, 16.8 BB%, 57 Strike%, 50.5 GB%, 5.28 FIP

Perhaps it’s not surprising that a few of our Mariners breakout picks were traded, but in terms of up-arrow movers, it’s a 2-for-3 effort here for Seattle even though only one of those players is still in the system. Aidan Smith was moved to the Rays along with Brody Hopkins in the Randy Arozarena deal and hit well at the Low-A level for both clubs while playing all three outfield positions. Darren Bowen was shipped to Minnesota along with Anthony DeSclafani and Justin Topa for Jorge Polanco. Bowen’s 6.07 ERA with High-A Cedar Rapids isn’t the most exciting figure, but his peripherals were much better, as he averaged 93-94 mph on his fastball and the analytics love his low-80s slider. Jeter Martinez will need to improve his control significantly, but he continued to take steps forward with his velocity. He sat around 95 mph while touching 99,  though the pitch looks like more of a ground ball offering than a swing-and-miss heater.

Rangers

Aidan Curry, RHP

• Preseason Rank: 13
• Current Rank: NR

6.44 ERA, 93.2 IP, 20 GS, 103 K, 43 BB, 24.4 K%, 10.2 BB%, 61 Strike%, 33.8 GB%, 5.73 FIP

Emiliano Teodo, RHP

• Preseason Rank: 14
• Current Rank: 8

2.00 ERA, 85.1 IP, 19 GS, 108 K, 49 BB, 30.5 K%, 13.8 BB%, 60 Strike%, 45.5 GB%, 3.46 FIP

Izack Tiger, RHP

• Preseason Rank: 20
• Current Rank: 19

2.93 ERA, 46 IP, 12 GS, 59 K, 21 BB, 30.9 K%, 11.0 BB%, 64 Strike%, 45.8 GB%, 3.85 FIP

The Rangers have had a lot of success with their pitching development overall this year, but it’s more of a mixed bag with our specific breakout picks. Aidan Curry fell from No. 13 to off the Rangers Top 30 after struggling to a 6.44 ERA over 20 starts and 93.2 innings with High-A Hickory where he was homer prone. It was better for both Emiliano Teodo and Izack Tiger, who both posted sub-3.00 ERAs. Teodo did so in the hitter-friendly Texas League where he pitched heavily off a hard, upper-80s slider that generated a 27% swinging strike rate and averaged more than 98 mph on his four-seam fastball. His control still needs work, but the stuff is enough for him to get out of jams at a high clip—his 81.2% left on base rate was good for the fifth-best among Texas League pitchers with at least 50 innings. Tiger spent time at three different levels where he was old for the league at each step, but he was still solid across 12 starts and 46 innings with a 95-mph fastball and a slider and changeup that both seemed to overmatch low minors hitters.